2014 Gubernatorial Predictions
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 19, 2024, 12:44:49 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election Predictions (Moderator: muon2)
  2014 Gubernatorial Predictions
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5
Latest 2014 Predictions (Highest Scores)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
jamesyons (R-VA)MapProfile 10-23 11 I +1 22 (0) 13 (-1) 1 (+1) 0
ryer (R-VA)Map 11-02 3 R +4 26 (+4) 10 (-4) 0 (0) 0
Timothy87 (R-VA)MapProfile 11-04 4 Even 23 (+1) 12 (-2) 1 (+1) 0
Impy (R-IL)MapProfile 11-02 1 R +4 26 (+4) 10 (-4) 0 (0) 0
JonathanSwift (R-GA)MapProfile 11-03 11 Even 20 (-2) 15 (+1) 1 (+1) 0
axlee73 (I-GA)Map 11-04 6 I +1 21 (-1) 14 (0) 1 (+1) 0
Mark Warner 08 (I-AUT)MapProfile 11-04 8 D +2 19 (-3) 16 (+2) 1 (+1) 0
Reaganfan (R-OH)MapProfile 11-04 1 I +1 21 (-1) 14 (0) 1 (+1) 0
bore (O-GBR)MapProfile 11-02 1 I +1 21 (-1) 14 (0) 1 (+1) 0
boyohio02 (O-CA)Map 11-03 5 I +1 21 (-1) 14 (0) 1 (+1) 0
Latest 2014 Predictions (Most Recent Entries)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
ThePoliticalGuy (D-CA)MapProfile 11-04 15 Even 20 (-2) 15 (+1) 1 (+1) 0
thornestorm (G-CA)Map 11-04 2 D +5 16 (-6) 19 (+5) 1 (+1) 0
Wilbur84 (I-MA)MapProfile 11-04 6 D +2 20 (-2) 16 (+2) 0 (0) 0
Political Lefty (D-CA)MapProfile 11-04 1 D +3 18 (-4) 17 (+3) 1 (+1) 0
Gass3268 (D-MD)MapProfile 11-04 2 D +5 16 (-6) 19 (+5) 1 (+1) 0
BrandenCordeiro (--AFG)MapProfile 11-04 10 R +2 24 (+2) 11 (-3) 1 (+1) 0
Olawakandi (G-CA)MapProfile 11-04 402 D +8 13 (-9) 22 (+8) 1 (+1) 0
Liberalrocks (D-CA)MapProfile 11-04 53 D +4 17 (-5) 18 (+4) 1 (+1) 0
ilikeverin (D-NY)MapProfile 11-04 1 D +1 21 (-1) 15 (+1) 0 (0) 0
MilesC56 (I-VA)MapProfile 11-04 31 D +3 18 (-4) 17 (+3) 1 (+1) 0
Latest 2014 Predictions (Most Recent Comments)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
ifhgsfj (D-MD)
by ifhgsfj on 2015-07-24 @ 21:21:36
MapProfile 03-18 1 I +1 21 (-1) 13 (0) 2 (+1) 2
MATTROSE94 (D-NJ)
by MATTROSE94 on 2014-11-10 @ 10:47:04
MapProfile 11-03 30 I +1 21 (-1) 14 (0) 1 (+1) 1
colin (I-ON)
by colin on 2014-11-05 @ 00:27:04
MapProfile 11-03 12 R +2 24 (+2) 12 (-2) 0 (0) 1
nyancat (R-CA)
by nyancat on 2014-11-04 @ 02:08:01
MapProfile 11-04 10 D +2 19 (-3) 16 (+2) 1 (+1) 1
BushCountry (I-IN)
by BushCountry on 2014-11-04 @ 00:06:55
MapProfile 11-04 31 I +1 22 (0) 13 (-1) 1 (+1) 1
nyancat (R-CA)
by nyancat on 2014-11-02 @ 17:08:31
MapProfile 11-02 9 Even 20 (-2) 15 (+1) 1 (+1) 1
Olawakandi (G-CA)
by MATTROSE94 on 2014-11-01 @ 15:22:36
MapProfile 10-16 386 D +8 13 (-9) 22 (+8) 1 (+1) 1
mphacker (I-WI)
by wifikitten on 2014-10-27 @ 10:59:33
Map 10-27 1 D +2 19 (-3) 16 (+2) 1 (+1) 1
wifikitten (D-MO)
by RMH8824 on 2014-10-27 @ 10:59:01
MapProfile 10-19 29 D +2 19 (-3) 16 (+2) 1 (+1) 2
nyancat (R-CA)
by nyancat on 2014-10-26 @ 14:53:08
MapProfile 10-26 8 I +1 21 (-1) 14 (0) 1 (+1) 1
Latest Discussion Topics
Author Topic: 2014 Gubernatorial Predictions  (Read 321467 times)
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: December 02, 2013, 04:21:27 AM »
« edited: January 28, 2014, 01:59:11 AM by ElectionsGuy »

Alabama: Robert Bentley (R) --> Safe R
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R) --> Safe R
Arizona: Republican (R) --> Lean R
Arkansas: Asa Hutchison (R) --> Lean R
California: Jerry Brown (D) --> Safe D
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D) --> Lean D
Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D) --> Lean D
Florida: Charlie Crist (D) --> Lean D
Georgia: Nathan Deal (R) --> Likely R
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D) --> Likely D
Idaho: Butch Otter (R) --> Safe R
Illinois: Pat Quinn (D) --> Lean D
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R) --> Likely R
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R) --> Likely R
Maine: Michael Michaud (D) --> Toss-Up
Maryland: Anthony Brown (D) --> Likely D
Massachusetts: Martha Coakley (D) --> Likely D
Michigan: Rick Snyder (R) --> Toss-Up
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D) --> Likely D
Nebraska: Republican (R) --> Safe R
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R) --> Likely R
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D) --> Likely D
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R) --> Likely R
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D) --> Safe D
Ohio: John Kasich (R) --> Lean R
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (R) --> Safe R
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D) --> Safe D
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz (D) --> Lean D
Rhode Island: Democrat (D) --> Likely D
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R) --> Likely R
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R) --> Safe R
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R) --> Safe R
Texas: Greg Abbott (R) --> Safe R
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D) --> Safe D
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R) --> Lean R
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R) --> Safe R

Here's my profile governor prediction

For a net gain of D+2 (28-22). These are obviously subject to change, and we're likely to have more unexpected and unpredictable races here than anywhere else.

Update: Moving SC from Lean R to Likely R
Logged
NewYorkExpress
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,823
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: December 02, 2013, 01:39:59 PM »
« Edited: December 03, 2013, 09:00:53 AM by NewYorkExpress »

Updated predictions (without numbers this time)

Alabama- Robert Bentley (R)
Alaska- Sean Parnell (R)
Arizona- Al Melvin (R)
Arkansas- Asa Hutchinson (R)
California- Jerry Brown (D)
Colorado- John Hickenlooper (D)
Connecticut- Chris Shays (R)
Florida- Charlie Crist/Nan Rich (D)
Georgia- Nathan Deal (R)
Hawaii- David Ige (D)
Idaho- Russell Fulcher (R)
Illinois- Bruce Rauner (R)
Iowa- Terry Branstad (R)
Kansas- Sam Brownback (R)
Maine- Mike Michaud (D)
Maryland- Heather Mizuer (D)
Massachusetts- Steven Grossman (D)
Michigan- Rick Snyder (R)
Minnesota- Mark Dayton (D)
Nebraska- Pete Ricketts (R)
Nevada- Brian Sandoval (R)
New Hampshire- Maggie Hassan (D)
New Mexico- Susana Martinez (R)
New York- Andrew Cuomo (D)
Ohio- Ed FitzGerald (D)
Oklahoma- Mary Fallin (R)
Oregon- John Kitzhaber (D)
Pennsylvania- Allyson Schwartz (D)
Rhode Island Clay Pell (D)
South Carolina- Nikki Haley (R)
South Dakota- Dennis Dauggard (R)
Tennesee- Bill Haslam (R)
Texas- Greg Abbott (R)
Vermont- Peter Shumlin (D)
Wisconsin- Scott Walker (R)
Wyoming- Cyndi Hill (R)

Net result is D+1
Logged
LeBron
LeBron FitzGerald
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,906
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: December 02, 2013, 11:23:30 PM »

Alabama: Gov. Robert Bentley (R) - Safe R
Alaska: Gov. Sean Parnell (R) - Safe R
Arizona: Ken Bennett (R) - Tilt R (We really need some polling here)
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R) - Tossup

California: Gov. Jerry Brown (D) - Safe D
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D) - Lean D
Connecticut: Gov. Dan Malloy (D) - Tilt D
Florida: Charlie Crist (D) - Lean D

Georgia: Gov. Nathan Deal (R) - Lean R
Hawaii: Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D) - Likely D
Idaho: Gov. Butch Otter (R) - Safe R (Watch the nominee end up being a mediator or real estate agent lol)
Illinois: Gov. Pat Quinn (D) - Tilt D
Iowa: Gov. Terry Branstad (R) - Lean R
Kansas: Paul Davis (D) - Tossup (It will be close, but Davis has an early 4 point advantage which I think can hold)
Maine: Mike Michaud (D) - Tossup

Maryland: Anthony Brown (D) - Safe D
Massachusetts: Martha Coakley (D) - Likely D
Michigan: Mark Schauer (D) - Tossup (1. The large Snyder leads are absurd  2. Schauer like FitzGerald just has a name recognition problem he can solve)
Minnesota: Gov. Mark Dayton (D) - Safe D

Nebraska: Charlie Janssen (R) - Likely R
Nevada: Gov. Brian Sandoval (R) - Safe R

New Hampshire: Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) - Safe D
New Mexico: Gov. Susana Martinez (R) - Lean R (King will be a strong challenger to her)
New York: Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) - Safe D
Ohio: Ed FitzGerald (D) - Tossup (As the Ohio economy grows worse, more people will shift towards FitzGerald as Kasich's approval goes lower into the 30s)
Oklahoma: Gov. Mary Fallin (R) - Safe R
Oregon: Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) - Safe D
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz (D) - Lean D
Rhode Island: Angel Taveras (D) - Likely D

South Carolina: Gov. Nikki Haley (R) - Tilt R (Two polls show Haley leads while two show Sheheen leads, but Haley has a small advantage)
South Dakota: Gov. Dennis Daugaard (R) - Safe R (Should be interesting to see if Sandlin runs)
Tennessee: Gov. Bill Haslam (R) - Safe R
Texas: Greg Abbott (R) - Likely R

Vermont: Gov. Peter Shumlin (D) - Likely D (In case the Progressive Party throws in a candidate)
Wisconsin: Gov. Scott Walker (R) - Tossup (Along with OH and MI, this will be one of the closest)
Wyoming: Gov. Matt Mead (R) - Safe R

D+5, Democrats I'm predicting will hold 26 Governor seats and Republicans 21 seats after the 2014 midterms. After 2015 it might be the same to since Repubs. have a term-limited seat with a very unpopular Governor in Louisiana while there's a term-limited Democrat in GOP favoring Kentucky.
Logged
JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,536
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: December 03, 2013, 05:22:34 PM »

I like you prediction Adam, it is a bit to optimistic for the dems except in one state where they most likely can win.  Arkansas should be Mike Ross Tossup.
Logged
LeBron
LeBron FitzGerald
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,906
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: December 04, 2013, 04:38:06 PM »

Quinn is in elastic due to Obama coattails. He is gonna get Durbin to campaign for Quinn.
AR Hutchinson R pickup
Ca Brown
CO R pickup
CT Malloy
FL Crist
IL Quinn
ME Michard D pickup
MI Synder
NV Sandoval
NH Hassen
NY Cuomo
OH Fitzzy d pickup
Pa Schwartz d pickup
RI D pickup
WI Burke D pickup

Net change 5 seats
I'm not so sure about the Republican pickup in Colorado especially if Tancredo is the nominee, but I agree with everything else including Fitzy 2014!!!

@JerryArkansas, I'm predicting a lot of these based off of polls, the states of the economy, approvals, scandals, how well each candidate is known etc. and a lot of the things I mentioned here adhere to the benefit of gubernatorial Democratic nominees. Mainly only people in Schauer's district know who he is while only people in Cuyahoga County know who FitzGerald is and barely anyone knows who Burke is. Once they get ads out and running and run on positive, progressive, anti-Tea Party platforms, at least two of them will probably end of winning.

Mike Ross on the other hand has an uphill climb with Hutchinson having a 2 point lead over him when Beebe has a high approval. Pryor certainly won't help Ross on the ballot much and neither will Obama. I feel unless Ross gets Clinton's endorsement, it will definitely benefit Republicans to win back the Governorship.
Logged
JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,536
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: December 04, 2013, 05:48:44 PM »

Quinn is in elastic due to Obama coattails. He is gonna get Durbin to campaign for Quinn.
AR Hutchinson R pickup
Ca Brown
CO R pickup
CT Malloy
FL Crist
IL Quinn
ME Michard D pickup
MI Synder
NV Sandoval
NH Hassen
NY Cuomo
OH Fitzzy d pickup
Pa Schwartz d pickup
RI D pickup
WI Burke D pickup

Net change 5 seats
I'm not so sure about the Republican pickup in Colorado especially if Tancredo is the nominee, but I agree with everything else including Fitzy 2014!!!

@JerryArkansas, I'm predicting a lot of these based off of polls, the states of the economy, approvals, scandals, how well each candidate is known etc. and a lot of the things I mentioned here adhere to the benefit of gubernatorial Democratic nominees. Mainly only people in Schauer's district know who he is while only people in Cuyahoga County know who FitzGerald is and barely anyone knows who Burke is. Once they get ads out and running and run on positive, progressive, anti-Tea Party platforms, at least two of them will probably end of winning.

Mike Ross on the other hand has an uphill climb with Hutchinson having a 2 point lead over him when Beebe has a high approval. Pryor certainly won't help Ross on the ballot much and neither will Obama. I feel unless Ross gets Clinton's endorsement, it will definitely benefit Republicans to win back the Governorship.
You have to remember one thing about Hutchison, he has a checkered past and his family history will not help in this race.  Ross also has low name rec, which will go up.  He also is almost going to get the endorsement of clinton.
Logged
Creativemind15
Rookie
**
Posts: 28
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: December 24, 2013, 12:21:54 AM »
« Edited: December 29, 2013, 12:33:45 AM by Creativemind15 »

These are my predictions as of December 24, 2013.

Alabama: Robert Bentley (R) def. Craig Ford (D)
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R) def. Ethan Berkowitz (D)
Arizona: Ken Bennett def. Fred DuVal (D)
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R) def. Mike Ross (D)
California: Jerry Brown (D) def. Abel Maldonado (R)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D) def. Tom Tancredo (R)
Connecticut: Thomas Foley (R) def. Dan Malloy (D)
Florida: Charlie Crist (D) def. Rick Scott (R)
Georgia: Jason Carter (D) def. Nathan Deal (R)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D) def. Generic Rep. Opponent
Idaho: Butch Otter (R) def. Generic Dem. Opponent
Illinois: Pat Quinn (D) def. Bruce Rauner (R)
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R) def. Jack Hatch (D)
Kansas: Paul Davis (D) def. Sam Brownback (R)
Maine: Mike Michaud (D) def. Paul LePage (R), Eliot Cutler (I)
Maryland: Anthony Brown (D) def. David Craig (R)
Massachusetts: Martha Coakley (D) def. Charles Baker, Jr. (R)
Michigan: Rick Snyder (R) def. Mark Schauer (D)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D) def. Kurt Zellers (R)
Nebraska: Charlie Janssen (R) def. Chuck Hassebrook (D)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R) def. Steve Sisolak (D)
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D) def. Generic Rep. Opponent
New Mexico: Susana Martinez def. Gary King (D)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D) def. Rob Astorino (R)
Ohio: John Kasich (R) def. Ed Fitzgerald (D)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (R) def. Joe Dorman (D)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D) def. Generic Rep. Opponent
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz (D) def. Tom Corbett (R)
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (D) def. Allan Fung (R)
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R) def. Vincent Sheheen (D)
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R) def. Generic Dem. Opponent
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R) def. Sara Kyle (D)
Texas: Greg Abbott (R) def. Wendy Davis (D)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D) def. Generic Rep. Opponent
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R) def. Mary Burke (D)
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R) def. Generic Dem. Opponent
Logged
SWE
SomebodyWhoExists
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,220
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: January 20, 2014, 06:15:28 PM »
« Edited: January 23, 2014, 09:56:24 PM by SomebodyWhoExists »

Alabama: Robert Bentley (R)
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R)
Arizona: Ken Bennett (R)
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R)
California: Jerry Brown (D)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D)
Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D)
Florida: Charlie Crist (D)
Georgia:Nathan Deal (D)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D)
Idaho: Butch Otter (R)
Illinois: Pat Quinn (D)
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R)
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R)
Maine: Mike Michaud (D)
Maryland: Anthony Brown (D)
Massachusetts: Martha Coakley (D)
Michigan: Mark Shauer (D)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D)
Nebraska: Tom Carlson (R)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R)
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D)
Ohio: John Kasich (R)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin(R)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D)
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz (D)
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (D)
South Carolina: Vincent Shaheen (D)
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R)
Texas: Greg Abbott (R)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D)
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R)
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R)
Logged
New_Conservative
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,139
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: January 20, 2014, 07:46:40 PM »

Alabama: Robert Bentley (R)
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R)
Arizona: Ken Bennett (R)
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R)
California: Jerry Brown (D)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D)
Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D)
Florida: Charlie Crist (D)
Georgia: Jason Carter (D)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D)
Idaho: Butch Otter (R)
Illinois: Pat Quinn (D)
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R)
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R)
Maine: Mike Michaud (D)
Maryland: Anthiny Brown (D)
Massachusetts: Charles Baker (R)
Michigan: Mark Shauer (D)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D)
Nebraska: Tom Carlson (R)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R)
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D)
Ohio: John Kasich (R)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin(R)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D)
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz (D)
Rhode Island: Allan Fung (R)
South Carolina: Vincent Shaheen (D)
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R)
Texas: Greg Abbott (R)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D)
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R)
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R)
Logged
publicunofficial
angryGreatness
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,010
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: February 06, 2014, 02:16:55 PM »
« Edited: February 06, 2014, 02:18:28 PM by angryGreatness »

Alabama: Robert Bentley (R)
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R)
Arkansas: Asa Hutchison (R)
Arizona: Ken Bennett (R)
California: Jerry Brown (D)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D)
Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D)
Florida: Charlie Christ (D)
Georgia: Nathan Deal (R)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D)
Idaho: Butch Otter (R)
Illinois: Pat Quinn (D)
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R)
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R)
Maine: Mike Michaud (D)
Maryland: Anthony Brown (D)
Massachusetts: Martha Coakley (D)
Michigan: Mark Schauer (D)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D)
Nebraska: Jon Bruning
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R)
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D)
Ohio: John Kasich (R)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (R)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D)
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz (D)
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (D)
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R)
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R)
Texas: Greg Abbott (R)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D)
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R)
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R)

Overall: D+3
Logged
pretzel1998
Newbie
*
Posts: 4


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: February 08, 2014, 11:29:48 PM »

Alabama: Robert Bentley (R Hold)
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R Hold)
Arizona: Jan Brewer (R Hold)
Arkansas: Mike Ross (D Hold) - (My current view is that it just leans Democrat, its very close)
California: Jerry Brown (D Hold)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D Hold)
Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D Hold) - (Tight Race, but end of the day Connecticut is a blue state and will reelect Malloy)
Florida: Charlie Crist (D Gain) - (Rick Scott is just too unpopular to be re-elected and every poll he is behind)
Georgia: Nathan Deal (R Hold) - (Jason Carter could give Governor Deal a run for his money but I think he will fall short)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D Hold)
Idaho: Butch Otter (R Hold)
Illinois: Pat Quinn (D hold) - ( Very unpopular governor, but Illinois is a strong Democratic state and despite his unpopularity the GOP challengers have not managed to gain a solid lead against him)
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R Hold)
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R Hold)
Maine: Mike Michaud (D Gain) - (Governor Le Page is hugely unpopular, but this is only Lean Democrat due to Elliot Cutter splitting the progressive vote)
Maryland: Anthony Brown (D Hold)
Massachusetts: Martha Coakley (D Hold)
Michigan: Rick Snyder (R Hold)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D Hold)
Nebraska: Don Stenberg (R Hold)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R Hold)
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D Hold)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R Hold)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D Hold)
Ohio: John Kasich (R Hold) -(Lean R but I will keep a close eye on this one)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (R Hold)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D Hold)
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz (D Gain) - (Another unpopular GOP governor, I think Corbett will struggle badly)
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (D Hold)
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R Hold) - (Vincent Shaheen could give her a close race though, only leans R)
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R Hold)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R Hold)
Texas: Greg Abbott (R Hold) - (I still want to wait a bit on this race though because it is special)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D Hold)
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R Hold)
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R Hold)
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: February 09, 2014, 12:25:00 AM »

Illinois: Pat Quinn (D hold) - ( Very unpopular governor, but Illinois is a strong Democratic state and despite his unpopularity the GOP challengers have not managed to gain a solid lead against him)

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=187007.0

May be a bad poll, but they've definitely managed to worry the dems about this race.

Texas: Greg Abbott (R Hold) - (I still want to wait a bit on this race though because it is special)

What's special about it? The fact that democrats got a star candidate they wanted? I don't think this will be any different when it comes to the result.
Logged
NewYorkExpress
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,823
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: February 09, 2014, 01:03:08 PM »

It's time to update...

Alabama- Robert Bentley (I wouldn't be too shocked if Stacey George or Bob Starkey pulled off an upset in the primary, but they too would easily win the general election)
Alaska-Sean Parnell
Arizona-Al Melvin (Wouldn't be stunned if Ducey, Bennett, or Smith won the primary... As for the General, Republicans are favored here, because of the political climate, more than anything else)
Arkansas Debra Hobbs (Asa Hutchinson has a glass jaw, he'll lose the primary... but that won't matter for the General, Arkansas is shifting that quickly)
California Jerry Brown
Colorado Scott Gessler (Hickenlooper's more likely to feel the backlash from Colorado's gun laws than, Udall)
Connecticut Chris Shays (Shays is probably the only Republican who can beat Malloy)
Florida Nan Rich/Charlie Crist (The Winner of the Democratic Primary will beat Rick Scott)
Georgia Nathan Deal (Jason Carter is a very strong candidate, but Democrats have a better chance in the Senate race)
Hawaii Neil Abercrombie
Idaho Russell Fulcher (This is a Governor's race the Tea Party can focus on)
Illinois Dan Rutherford (Picking the GOP primary is going to be a crapshoot, but I think we can agree Quinn is a heavy underdog)
Iowa Terry Branstad
Kansas Paul Davis (You try winning re-election with a 35% approval rating)
Mike Michaud (I actually think Cutler will barely squeak past Lepage for second)
MarylandHeather Mizeur (Am I the only person underestimating Mizeur in the Democratic primary?)
Massachusetts Martha Coakley
Michigan Mark Schauer
Minnesota Mark Dayton
NebraskaPete Ricketts
Nevada Brian Sandoval
New HampshireMaggie Hassan
New Mexico Gary King (Upset Special)
New York Andrew Cuomo (Whenever he announces, although if he wants to run in 2016, I think he'd be better off retiring)
Ohio John Kasich
Oklahoma Mary Fallin
Oregon John Kitzhaber
PennsylvaniaAllyson Schwartz (Corbett is deep trouble)
Rhode IslandAngel Tavares
South Carolina Nikki Haley
South Dakota Dennis Dauggard
Tennessee Bill Haslam
Texas Greg Abbott
Vermont Peter Shumlin
Wisconsin Scott Walker
Wyoming Cindy Hill
Logged
Bojack Horseman
Wolverine22
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,367
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: February 19, 2014, 05:02:22 PM »

likely-to-solid Dems pickup in:

Pennsylvania
Florida
Michigan
Maine (Thank god. Good riddance, Paul LePage)

There's a chance Dems might pickup in:

Texas
Arizona
Ohio
Wisconsin

Solid Republican pickup:

Arkansas

There's a chance for a Republican pickup:

Colorado
Minnesota
Logged
Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,456
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: February 19, 2014, 05:18:30 PM »
« Edited: February 19, 2014, 05:20:34 PM by OC »

Solid D
Pennsylvania
Maine (Thank god. Good riddance, Paul LePage)

There's a chance Dems might pickup in:
Michigan
Florida

Solid Republican pickup:

Arkansas

There's a chance for a Republican pickup:

Colorado
Hawaii
Illinois
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: February 27, 2014, 11:03:11 PM »

Update:



Rhode Island: Likely --> Safe D
Maryland: Likely --> Safe D
Illinois: Lean D --> Toss-Up
Arkansas: Lean R --> Toss-Up
Michigan: Toss-Up --> Lean R
Kansas: Safe --> Likely R

I could probably move Pennsylvania to Likely D now, but I'll wait.
Logged
Vega
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,253
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: February 27, 2014, 11:11:36 PM »

Alabama: Robert Bentley (R)
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R)
Arkansas: Asa Hutchison (R)
Arizona: Christine Jones (R)
California: Jerry Brown (D)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D)
Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D)
Florida: Charlie Christ (D)
Georgia: Nathan Deal (R)
Hawaii: David Ige (D)
Idaho: Butch Otter (R)
Illinois: Pat Quinn (D)
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R)
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R)
Maine: Michael Michaud (D)
Maryland: Anthony Brown (D)
Massachusetts: Martha Coakley (D)
Michigan: Mark Schauer (D)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D)
Nebraska: Jon Bruning
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R)
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D)
Ohio: John Kasich (R)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (R)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D)
Pennsylvania: Tom Wolf (D)
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (D)
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R)
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R)
Texas: Greg Abbott (R)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D)
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R)
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R)

Thanks to angryGreatness for his list, as it's by and large mine.

I did change some primary outcomes, which include:

Tom Wolf winning the Democratic Primary in Pennsylvania.

David Ige   winning against Neil Abercrombie in the Democratic Primary in Hawaii.
Logged
SWE
SomebodyWhoExists
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,220
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: March 01, 2014, 01:01:51 PM »

UPDATE:
Alabama: Robert Bentley (R) SAFE R
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R) SAFE R
Arizona: Ken Bennett (R) LEAN R
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R)TOSSUP

California: Jerry Brown (D)SAFE D
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D)LEAN D
Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D) TOSSUP
Florida: Charlie Crist (D) LEAN D

Georgia:Nathan Deal (R) LEAN R
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D) LIKELY D
Idaho: Butch Otter (R) SAFE R
Illinois: Pat Quinn (D) TOSSUP
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R) SAFE R
Kansas: Paul Davis (D) TOSSUP
Maine: Mike Michaud (D) LEAN D

Maryland: Anthony Brown (D) SAFE D
Massachusetts: Martha Coakley (D) SAFE D
Michigan: Mark Shauer (D) TOSSUP
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D) SAFE D

Nebraska: Tom Carlson (R) SAFE R
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R) SAFE R

New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D) SAFE D
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R) SAFE R
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D) SAFE D
Ohio: John Kasich (R) LIKELY R
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin(R) SAFE R

Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D) SAFE D
Pennsylvania: Tom Wolf (D) LEAN D
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (D) LIKELY D
South Carolina: Vincent Shaheen (D) TOSSUP

South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R) SAFE R
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R) SAFE R
Texas: Greg Abbott (R) LIKELY R

Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D) SAFE D
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R) LEAN R
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R) SAFE R


A net gain of D+5
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: March 20, 2014, 10:08:32 PM »
« Edited: May 17, 2014, 03:27:22 PM by ElectionsGuy »

I'm going to do a complete update, re-link to signature, and add percentages to Illinois and Texas since candidates are determined. In some of these I'm also predicting who is going to win the non-incumbent primary, which I could be certainly wrong on, particularly for Nebraska, Rhode Island, and Arizona.

Alabama: Robert Bentley (R) - Safe R
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R) - Safe R
Arizona: Ken Bennett (R) - Lean R

*Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R) - Toss-Up
California: Jerry Brown (D) - Safe D
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D) - Lean D
Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D) - Lean D

*Florida: Charlie Crist (D) - Lean D
Georgia: Nathan Deal (R) - Lean R
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D) - Likely D
Idaho: Butch Otter (R) - Safe R
Illinois: Pat Quinn (D) - 49%, Bruce Rauner (R) - 47%. Toss-Up
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R) - Likely R
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R) - Likely R

*Maine: Mike Michaud (D) - Lean D
Maryland: Anthony Brown (D) - Safe D
Massachusetts: Martha Coakley (D) - Likely D
Michigan: Rick Snyder (R) - Lean R
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D) - Safe D
Nebraska: Pete Ricketts (R) - 60%, Chuck Hassebrook (D) - 38%. Safe R
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R) - Likely R

New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D) - Safe D
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R) - Likely R
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D) - Safe D
Ohio: John Kasich (R) - 52%, Ed FitzGerald (D) - 47%. Lean R
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (R) - Safe R

Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D) - Safe D
*Pennsylvania: Tom Wolf (D) - Likely D
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (D) - Safe D
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R) - Likely R
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R) - Safe R
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R) - Safe R
Texas: Greg Abbott - 56%, Wendy Davis - 42%. Safe R

Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D) - Safe D
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R) - Lean R
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R) - Safe R


* Pickup

Net D+2, for a 27-23 R spread for governors of America.
Logged
JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,536
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: March 23, 2014, 03:55:02 PM »



Logged
Potatoe
Guntaker
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,397
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: March 23, 2014, 04:20:42 PM »
« Edited: March 23, 2014, 04:38:00 PM by Guntaker »

Democrats:25(+4)
Republicans:25(-4)


Logged
SWE
SomebodyWhoExists
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,220
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: March 23, 2014, 07:48:46 PM »

UPDATE:
Alabama: Robert Bentley (R) SAFE R
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R) SAFE R
Arizona: Ken Bennett (R) LEAN R
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R)TOSSUP

California: Jerry Brown (D)SAFE D
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D)LEAN D
Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D) TOSSUP
Florida: Charlie Crist (D) LEAN D

Georgia:Nathan Deal (R) LEAN R
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D) LIKELY D
Idaho: Butch Otter (R) SAFE R
Illinois: Pat Quinn (D) TOSSUP
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R) SAFE R
Kansas: Paul Davis (D) TOSSUP
Maine: Mike Michaud (D) LEAN D

Maryland: Anthony Brown (D) SAFE D
Massachusetts: Martha Coakley (D) SAFE D

Michigan: Rick Snyder (R) TOSSUP
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D) SAFE D
Nebraska: Tom Carlson (R) SAFE R
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R) SAFE R

New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D) SAFE D
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R) SAFE R
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D) SAFE D
Ohio: John Kasich (R) LIKELY R
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin(R) SAFE R

Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D) SAFE D
Pennsylvania: Tom Wolf (D) LEAN D
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (D) LIKELY D
South Carolina: Vincent Shaheen (D) TOSSUP

South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R) SAFE R
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R) SAFE R
Texas: Greg Abbott (R) SAFE R

Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D) SAFE D
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R) TOSSUP
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R) SAFE R


A net gain of D+4
Logged
LeBron
LeBron FitzGerald
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,906
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: March 23, 2014, 11:51:32 PM »

Alabama: Robert Bentley (R) - Safe R (His toughest opposition will be in the primary anyways)

Alaska: Sean Parnell (R) - Safe R (The GOP vote is being split quite a bit among all candidates, but Parnell will still win decisively)

Arizona: Ken Bennett (R) - Tossup (Whoever arises from the GOP primary will be weakened, but DuVal isn't the best Democratic challenger and the state is still taking time to shift)

Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R) - Tossup (It will be close right down to the end, but it is Arkansas and as long as some anti-Obama politician has an "R' for their party affiliation, it could be that easy especially when Ross isn't an incumbent and is stuck on the ballot with Pryor)

California: Jerry Brown (D) - Safe D (Not that this race was in play to begin with, but Maldonado would have been a better candidate than Donnelly)

Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D) - Likely D (Hickenlooper is recovering and unlike CO-Sen, the Republican bench is embarrassing)

Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D) - Lean D (It really won't be that competitive even if Foley becomes the nominee since he beat him in 2010, the undecided will break for Malloy, and Malloy is becoming a nationally known and acclaimed Democratic star)

Florida: Charlie Crist (D) - Lean D (Scott isn't leading in a single poll and despite liberals being unhappy with him, he'll the lesser of the 2 evils for voters to decide between)

Georgia: Nathan Deal (R) - Lean R (Carter is a phenomenal candidate and a good fundraiser and can attack Deal on snowgate, the segregated prom, and failure to expand Medicaid, but the state like AZ is still too conservative and won't get good turnout from Atlanta like Abrams could have)

Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D) - Lean D (Aiona lost to Abercrombie by 17 points in 2010, so I don't consider the poll where Aiona is leading reliable especially when it's Hawaii of all places, but nonetheless is still vulnerable)

Idaho: Butch Otter (R) - Safe R (I would personally like to see how much of a threat Fulcher will be in the primary)

Illinois: Pat Quinn (D) - Tossup (Rauner hurt his chances big time when he made the minimum wage flop and will be painted as another Mitt Romney, but Quinn is still a lot weaker than Malloy)

Iowa: Terry Branstad (R) - Safe R (Hoefling isn't a threat and he'll beat Hatch decisively)

Kansas: Sam Brownback (R) - Tossup (Unfortunately, like IL, the state's just too polarizing no matter how unpopular the incumbent is and Kansans I bet would rather than some Tea Party far-right loon than a liberal as their Governor)

Maine: Mike Michaud (D) - Tossup/Tilt D (LePage's toxicness might be enough for Michaud to win (and break 40%) even with Cutler trying to ruin everything)

Maryland: Anthony Brown (D) - Safe D (>Sabato's ranking)

Massachusetts: Martha Coakley (D) - Likely D (Coakley isn't Sink and I feel pretty confident that she can beat Baker)

Michigan: Mark Schauer (D) - Tossup (He's getting a significant amount of help from the DGA and once he starts getting his name out there and attacking Snyder for right-to-work and the abortion insurance bill, cutting school funding, and failing to provide assistance to Detroit, he could narrowly win)

Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D) - Safe D (I think he has close to if not a 60% approval rating, so he's not going anywhere anytime soon)

Nebraska: Jon Bruning (R) - Likely R (Simply because I want mah polls and Hassebrook really isn't that bad of a candidate while Bruning's pretty bad)

Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R) - Safe R (lol at the no-name field of Democratic candidates)

New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D) - Safe D (Weak GOP candidates and Hassan is a phenomenal Governor)

New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R) - Likely R (We really need to get an idea of what's going on here now given the stakes for 2016, it being a blue state with a strong Democratic challenger, and the last poll from 2 years ago having Martinez barely cracking 50%)

New York: Andrew Cuomo (D) - Safe D (Ugh)

Ohio: Ed FitzGerald (D) - Tossup (There's no way a race that's within 5 points with a little known Democratic challenger is "likely R" and FitzGerald has enough party and union support to help him attack Kasich for SB5 as well as his continued tax cuts for the wealthy, the fracking scandal, the fight for voting rights, and Kasich's attack on women's rights (I heard State Rep. Kris Jordan reintroduced the infamous Fetal Heartbeat Bill last week), so any favorable chances Kasich has in this race will be diminished by summertime. You heard it first from me).

Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (R) - Safe R (Joe "Storm Shelter" Dorman stands no chance)

Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D) - Safe D (The most interesting thing here is the name of Kitzhaber's perennial primary challenger)

Pennsylvania: Thomas Wolf (D) - Lean D (Unfortunate that he needs to use 8 figures of his own wealth to beat Schwartz)

Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (D) - Likely D (It will be close, but I think she can beat out Taveras and Fung's chances of winning are low)

South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R) - Lean R (Haley's recovering and Sheheen while popular among moderates needs Haley to make a whole bunch of gaffes to win this)

South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R) - Safe R (Assuming Daugaard runs, he'll coast to re-election)

Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R) - Safe R (Impressively enough, still no Democratic challenger and his only GOP challenger is some raccoon abuser)

Texas: Greg Abbott (R) - Likely R (This is definitely an overrated race, but I don't think Abbott has it in full lock just yet)

Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D) - Safe D (Yeah, I doubt that the Progressives will field a challenger now and even if they do, there wouldn't be strong enough Republican opposition)

Wisconsin: Mary Burke (D) - Tossup (I say this post-scandal leakage and the third times the charm to knock off Walker aka Mr. Ultrasound V2)

Wyoming: Matt Mead (R) - Safe R (Mead officially declared and Freudenthal can't even run anyways, so yeah)

So this is a net of D+4, Dems would hold 25 Governorships and Republicans 25.
Logged
Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,456
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: March 24, 2014, 01:14:28 PM »

Hutchinson R+1
Hickenlooper
Crist D+1
Ige
Quinn
Michaud D+1
Schauer D+1
Wolf D+1
Tavarez D+1
Logged
SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,004
Latvia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: March 24, 2014, 01:43:20 PM »

Alabama: Robert Bentley
Alaska: Sean Parnell
Arizona: Ken Bennett
Arkansas: Mike Ross
California: Jerry Brown
Colorado: John Hickenlooper
Connecticut: Dan Malloy
Florida: Rick Scott
Georgia: Nathan Deal
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie
Idaho: Butch Otter
Illinois: Bruce Rauner
Iowa: Terry Branstad
Kansas: Sam Brownback
Maine: Mike Michaud
Maryland: Anthony Brown
Massachusetts: Martha Coakley
Michigan: Rick Snyder
Minnesota: Mark Dayton
Nebraska: Jon Bruning
Nevada: Brian Sandoval
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan
New Mexico: Susana Martinez
New York: Andrew Cuomo
Ohio: John Kasich
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin
Oregon: John Kitzhaber
Pennsylvania: Tom Wolf
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo
South Carolina: Nikki Haley
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard
Tennessee: Bill Haslam
Texas: Greg Abbott
Vermont: Pete Shumlin
Wisconsin: Scott Walker
Wyoming: Matt Mead
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 1.305 seconds with 11 queries.