2014 Gubernatorial Predictions
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Latest 2014 Predictions (Highest Scores)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
jamesyons (R-VA)MapProfile 10-23 11 I +1 22 (0) 13 (-1) 1 (+1) 0
ryer (R-VA)Map 11-02 3 R +4 26 (+4) 10 (-4) 0 (0) 0
Timothy87 (R-VA)MapProfile 11-04 4 Even 23 (+1) 12 (-2) 1 (+1) 0
Impy (R-IL)MapProfile 11-02 1 R +4 26 (+4) 10 (-4) 0 (0) 0
JonathanSwift (R-GA)MapProfile 11-03 11 Even 20 (-2) 15 (+1) 1 (+1) 0
axlee73 (I-GA)Map 11-04 6 I +1 21 (-1) 14 (0) 1 (+1) 0
Mark Warner 08 (I-AUT)MapProfile 11-04 8 D +2 19 (-3) 16 (+2) 1 (+1) 0
Reaganfan (R-OH)MapProfile 11-04 1 I +1 21 (-1) 14 (0) 1 (+1) 0
bore (O-GBR)MapProfile 11-02 1 I +1 21 (-1) 14 (0) 1 (+1) 0
boyohio02 (O-CA)Map 11-03 5 I +1 21 (-1) 14 (0) 1 (+1) 0
Latest 2014 Predictions (Most Recent Entries)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
ThePoliticalGuy (D-CA)MapProfile 11-04 15 Even 20 (-2) 15 (+1) 1 (+1) 0
thornestorm (G-CA)Map 11-04 2 D +5 16 (-6) 19 (+5) 1 (+1) 0
Wilbur84 (I-MA)MapProfile 11-04 6 D +2 20 (-2) 16 (+2) 0 (0) 0
Political Lefty (D-CA)MapProfile 11-04 1 D +3 18 (-4) 17 (+3) 1 (+1) 0
Gass3268 (D-MD)MapProfile 11-04 2 D +5 16 (-6) 19 (+5) 1 (+1) 0
BrandenCordeiro (--AFG)MapProfile 11-04 10 R +2 24 (+2) 11 (-3) 1 (+1) 0
Olawakandi (G-CA)MapProfile 11-04 402 D +8 13 (-9) 22 (+8) 1 (+1) 0
Liberalrocks (D-CA)MapProfile 11-04 53 D +4 17 (-5) 18 (+4) 1 (+1) 0
ilikeverin (D-NY)MapProfile 11-04 1 D +1 21 (-1) 15 (+1) 0 (0) 0
MilesC56 (I-VA)MapProfile 11-04 31 D +3 18 (-4) 17 (+3) 1 (+1) 0
Latest 2014 Predictions (Most Recent Comments)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
ifhgsfj (D-MD)
by ifhgsfj on 2015-07-24 @ 21:21:36
MapProfile 03-18 1 I +1 21 (-1) 13 (0) 2 (+1) 2
MATTROSE94 (D-NJ)
by MATTROSE94 on 2014-11-10 @ 10:47:04
MapProfile 11-03 30 I +1 21 (-1) 14 (0) 1 (+1) 1
colin (I-ON)
by colin on 2014-11-05 @ 00:27:04
MapProfile 11-03 12 R +2 24 (+2) 12 (-2) 0 (0) 1
nyancat (R-CA)
by nyancat on 2014-11-04 @ 02:08:01
MapProfile 11-04 10 D +2 19 (-3) 16 (+2) 1 (+1) 1
BushCountry (I-IN)
by BushCountry on 2014-11-04 @ 00:06:55
MapProfile 11-04 31 I +1 22 (0) 13 (-1) 1 (+1) 1
nyancat (R-CA)
by nyancat on 2014-11-02 @ 17:08:31
MapProfile 11-02 9 Even 20 (-2) 15 (+1) 1 (+1) 1
Olawakandi (G-CA)
by MATTROSE94 on 2014-11-01 @ 15:22:36
MapProfile 10-16 386 D +8 13 (-9) 22 (+8) 1 (+1) 1
mphacker (I-WI)
by wifikitten on 2014-10-27 @ 10:59:33
Map 10-27 1 D +2 19 (-3) 16 (+2) 1 (+1) 1
wifikitten (D-MO)
by RMH8824 on 2014-10-27 @ 10:59:01
MapProfile 10-19 29 D +2 19 (-3) 16 (+2) 1 (+1) 2
nyancat (R-CA)
by nyancat on 2014-10-26 @ 14:53:08
MapProfile 10-26 8 I +1 21 (-1) 14 (0) 1 (+1) 1
Latest Discussion Topics
Author Topic: 2014 Gubernatorial Predictions  (Read 321464 times)
Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
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« Reply #50 on: March 24, 2014, 02:24:14 PM »

Bruce Rauner has downstate support. He doesn't have the suburban vote he needs to beat Dem Cook county machine.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #51 on: March 25, 2014, 11:07:05 AM »

Alabama: Robert Bentley
Alaska: Sean Parnell
Arizona: Ken Bennett
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson
California: Jerry Brown
Colorado: John Hickenlooper
Connecticut: Tom Foley
Florida: Charlie Christ
Georgia: Jason Carter
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie
Idaho: Butch Otter
Illinois: Bruce Rauner
Iowa: Terry Branstad
Kansas: Paul Davis
Maine: Mike Michaud
Maryland: Anthony Brown
Massachusetts: Charlie Baker
Michigan: Mark Schauer
Minnesota: Mark Dayton
Nebraska: Jon Bruning
Nevada: Brian Sandoval
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan
New Mexico: Susana Martinez
New York: Andrew Cuomo
Ohio: Ed FitzGerald
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin
Oregon: John Kitzhaber
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo
South Carolina: Vincent Shaheen
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard
Tennessee: Bill Haslam
Texas: Greg Abbott
Vermont: Pete Shumlin
Wisconsin: Scott Walker
Wyoming: Matt Mead

All in all, there is a net gain of 5 Gubernatorial seats for the Democrats.
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publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #52 on: March 31, 2014, 04:40:01 PM »

Winners in bold

Alabama: Robert Bentley (R) vs. Parker Griffith (D)
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R) vs. Ethan Berkowitz (D) vs. Bill Walker (I)
Arizona: Ken Bennett (R) vs. Fred DuVal (D)
Arkansas: Mike Ross (D) vs. Asa Hutchison (R)
California: Jerry Brown (D) vs. Tim Donnelly (R)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D) vs. Tom Tancredo (R)
Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D) vs. Tom Foley (R)
Florida: Rick Scott (R) vs. Charlie Crist (D)(D+1)
Georgia: Nathan Deal (R) vs. Jason Carter (D)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D) vs. Duke Aiona (R)
Idaho: Butch Otter (R) vs. A.J. Balukoff (D)
Illinois: Pat Quinn (D) vs. Bruce Rauner (R) (R+1)
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R) vs. Jack Hatch (D)
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R) vs. Paul Davis (D)
Maine: Paul LePage (R) vs. Mike Michaud (D) vs. Eliot Cutler (I) (D+1)
Maryland: Anthony Brown (D) vs. Ron George (R)
Massachusetts: Martha Coakley (D) vs. Charlie Baker (R)
Michigan: Rick Snyder (R) vs. Mark Schauer (D) (D+1)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D) vs. Kurt Zellers (R)
Nebraska: Jon Bruning (R) vs. Chuck Hassebrook (D)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R) vs. Chris Hyepock (D)
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D) vs. Chuck Morse (R)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R) vs. Howie Morales (D)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D) vs. Rob Astorino (R)
Ohio: John Kasich (R) vs. Ed Fitzgerald (D)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (R) vs. Joe Dorman (D)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D) vs. Dennis Richardson (R)
Pennsylvania: Tom Corbett (R) vs. Tom Wolf (D) (D+1)
Rhode Island: Angel Taveras (D) vs. Allen Fung (R)
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R) vs. Vincent Sheheen (D)
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R) vs. Joe Lowe (D)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R) vs. Some Asshole (D)
Texas: Greg Abbott (R) vs. Wendy Davis (D)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D) vs. Cris Ericson (I)
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R) vs. Mary Burke (D)
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R)

Overall: D+3
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Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
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« Reply #53 on: April 01, 2014, 09:56:25 AM »
« Edited: April 01, 2014, 10:21:32 AM by OC »

King def Martinez D+1.  NM tossup
Schauer def Synder D+1 MI tossup
Crist def Scott D+1 FL tossup
Tavares wins D+1 RI
Wolf def Corbett D+1 PA
Michaud def LePage D+1 ME

Hutchinson def Ross R+1

25D-25R
3-5 seat net gain
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MurrayBannerman
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« Reply #54 on: April 07, 2014, 03:23:45 PM »

King def Martinez D+1.  NM tossup
Schauer def Synder D+1 MI tossup
Crist def Scott D+1 FL tossup
Tavares wins D+1 RI
Wolf def Corbett D+1 PA
Michaud def LePage D+1 ME

Hutchinson def Ross R+1

25D-25R
3-5 seat net gain
Since when is NM a tossup?
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Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
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« Reply #55 on: April 07, 2014, 04:37:06 PM »

It isn't a tossup yet, I am being bold in predicting Martinez to lose just like IL is a super Dem state, so is NM. King's father Bruce King did serve as Gov in 1970 and she is now only 5 pts ahead. We will see if the race develops later.
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MurrayBannerman
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« Reply #56 on: April 07, 2014, 05:02:39 PM »

I don't have a problem with you wanting to be bold. The tossup part just caught my eye.
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WillTheMormon
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« Reply #57 on: April 11, 2014, 05:15:16 PM »
« Edited: April 12, 2014, 09:58:18 AM by WillTheMormon »

Alabama: Robert Bentley (R)
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R)
Arizona: Ken Bennett (R)
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R)

California: Jerry Brown (D)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D)

Connecticut: Tom Foley (R)
Florida: Charlie Crist (D)

Georgia: Nathan Deal (R)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D)
Idaho: Butch Otter (R)
Illinois: Bruce Rauner (R)
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R)
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R)

Maine: Mike Michaud (D)
Maryland: Anthony Brown (D)

Massachusetts: Charlie Baker (R)
Michigan: Rick Snyder (R)

Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D)
Nebraska: Jon Bruning (R)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R)

New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D)
Ohio: John Kasich (R)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (R)

Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D)
Pennsylvania: Tom Wolf (D)
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (D)

South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R)
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R)
Texas: Greg Abbott (R)

Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D)
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R)
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R)


Republicans + 1
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Potatoe
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« Reply #58 on: April 11, 2014, 06:38:45 PM »

Uh, What?
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WillTheMormon
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« Reply #59 on: April 11, 2014, 08:13:50 PM »


Martha Coakley was destroyed once, who says that's not going to happen again. Plus, Scott Brown was not nearly as well known as Charlie Baker in MA when he ran against Coakley.
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Potatoe
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« Reply #60 on: April 11, 2014, 08:16:58 PM »


Martha Coakley was destroyed once, who says that's not going to happen again. Plus, Scott Brown was not nearly as well known as Charlie Baker in MA when he ran against Coakley.
She's leading him by double digits, and losing by 4 isn't being "Destroyed", and considering that Baker is a recycled 2010 Candidate, and how is he having more name recognition? Coakley's the Attorney General.

Look at all polling, so unless Grossman gets nominated, Baker isn't going to get to Boston.
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Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
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« Reply #61 on: April 13, 2014, 09:12:17 AM »

Any candidate in Boston who is connected to Christie or Romney like Healey or Scott Brown or Baker aren't gonna get far in Boston or NH.
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Free Bird
TheHawk
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« Reply #62 on: May 09, 2014, 07:43:24 AM »


Alabama: Bentley
Alaska: Parnell
Arizona: Bennett. Governor Seagal sounds amazing, but it isn't happening
Arkansas: Hutchinson
California: Brown
Connecticut: Foley. You guys predict on bias. You don't get it. Malloy is HATED where I am.
Florida: Crist. This one will be a slugger. I'm talking Goku/Vegeta slugger
Georgia: Deal, barely
Hawaii: Aiona
Idaho: Butch Otter. That's the best name ever.
Illinois: Rauner
Iowa: Branstad.
Kansas: Brownback
Maine: LePage. Another squeaker, but his popularity in upper Maine is seriously underestimated.
Maryland: Brown
Massachusetts: Coakley
Michigan: Snyder
Minnesota: Dayton
Nebraska: Bruning
New Hampshire: Hassan. This could count as an endorsement. She's bipartisan
New Mexico: Martinez
New York: Cuomo
Ohio: Kasich
Oregon: Kitzhaber
Pennsylvania: Wolf
Rhode Island: Raimondo
South Carolina: Haley
South Dakota: Daugaard
Tennessee: Haslam
Texas: Sorry media, Abbott
Vermont: Shumlin
Wisconsin: Walker
Wyoming: Mead
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Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #63 on: May 09, 2014, 02:21:01 PM »
« Edited: May 09, 2014, 02:23:55 PM by OC »

Mary Burke def Walker
Crist def Scott
Michaud def LePage
Schauer def Synder
Wolf def Corbett
Raimondo wins RI

25D-25R

Hutchinson def Ross
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Flake
Flo
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« Reply #64 on: May 18, 2014, 12:58:46 AM »



Update
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #65 on: May 31, 2014, 04:56:49 PM »

Alabama: Robert Bentley - Safe R
Alaska: Sean Parnell - Safe R
Arizona: Ken Bennett - Lean R
Arkansas: Asa Hutchison - 50%, Mike Ross - 48%. Toss-Up
California: Jerry Brown - Safe D
Colorado: John Hickenlooper - Likely D
Connecticut: Dan Malloy - Lean D
Florida: Charlie Crist - Lean D
Georgia: Nathan Deal - 52%, Jason Carter - 46%. Lean R
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie - Likely D
Idaho: Butch Otter - 61%, AJ Balukoff - 38%. Safe R
Illinois: Pat Quinn - 49%, Bruce Rauner - 48%. Toss-Up
Iowa: Terry Branstad - Likely R
Kansas: Sam Brownback - Likely R
Maine: Mike Michaud - Lean D
Maryland: Anthony Brown - Safe D
Massachusetts: Martha Coakley - Likely D
Michigan: Rick Snyder - Lean R
Minnesota: Mark Dayton - Safe D
Nebraska: Pete Ricketts - 58%, Chuck Hassebrook - 40%. Safe R
Nevada: Brian Sandoval - Safe R
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan - Safe D
New Mexico: Susana Martinez - Likely R
New York: Andrew Cuomo - Safe D
Ohio: John Kasich - 53%, Ed Fitzgerald - 46%. Lean R
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin - Safe R
Oregon: John Kitzhaber - 59%, Dennis Richardson - 39%. Safe D
Pennsylvania: Tom Wolf - 57%, Tom Corbett - 41%. Likely D
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo - Safe D
South Carolina: Nikki Haley - Likely R
South Dakota: Dennis Dauggard - Safe R
Tennessee: Bill Haslam - Safe R
Texas: Greg Abbott - 56%, Wendy Davis - 42%. Safe R
Vermont: Peter Shumlin - Safe D
Wisconsin: Scott Walker - Lean R
Wyoming: Matt Mead - Safe R

Bolded = Pickup. My prediction - D+2
In states with already confirmed candidates, I bolded the winner and added percentages.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #66 on: June 01, 2014, 08:03:23 PM »

Republicans pick up IL, AR
Democrats pick up ME, PA, FL
RI goes Dem

Everything else stays with its current party. Republican Majority of 28-21.
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Flake
Flo
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« Reply #67 on: June 04, 2014, 08:18:12 PM »

Pennsylvania: Tom Wolf - 57%, Tom Corbett - 41%. Likely D
Texas: Greg Abbott - 56%, Wendy Davis - 42%. Safe R

Is the rating difference because of elasticity in Pennsylvania?
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #68 on: June 05, 2014, 06:26:40 AM »

Pennsylvania: Tom Wolf - 57%, Tom Corbett - 41%. Likely D
Texas: Greg Abbott - 56%, Wendy Davis - 42%. Safe R

Is the rating difference because of elasticity in Pennsylvania?

Yes, that and incumbency.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #69 on: June 28, 2014, 06:49:48 PM »

First prediction:




I'm giving Malloy and Abercrombie the benefit of the doubt since their weakness was only shown by a single pollster, whereas Brownback's was corroborated by multiple pollsters. I'm putting Wisconsin at toss up tentatively, since I anticipate the recent allegations against him will at least have some impact on the polls. If not, I'll probably move it back to Lean R.

P.S.: Why does it show Rhode Island as a pickup when Chafee is a Democrat now?
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #70 on: June 28, 2014, 07:37:09 PM »

Alabama: Bentley(I) - 61%, Griffith - 38%. Safe R
Alaska: Parnell(I) - Safe R
Arizona: Ducey - Lean R
Arkansas: Hutchison - 51%, Ross - 46%. Toss-Up
California: Brown(I) - 63%, Kashkari - 37%. Safe D
Colorado: Hickenlooper(I) - 54%, Beauprez - 44%. Likely D
Connecticut: Malloy(I) - Lean D
Florida: Crist - Toss-Up
Georgia: Deal(I) - 52%, Carter - 47%. Lean R
Hawaii: Ige - Likely D
Idaho: Otter(I) - 62%, Balukoff - 36%. Safe R
IllinoisRauner - 49%, Quinn(I) - 48%. Toss-Up
Iowa: Branstad(I) - 56%, Hatch - 42%. Likely R
Kansas: Brownback(I) - Lean R
Maine: Michaud - 44%, LePage(I) - 42%. Lean D
Maryland: Brown - 60%, Hogan - 39%. Safe D
Massachusetts: Coakley - 55%, Baker - 43%. Likely D
Michigan: Snyder(I) - Lean R
Minnesota: Dayton(I) - Safe D
Nebraska: Ricketts - 57%, Hassebrook - 42%. Safe R
Nevada: Sandoval(I) - 61%, Goodman - 36%. Safe R
New Hampshire: Hassan(I) - Safe D
New Mexico: Martinez(I) - 55%, King - 45%. Likely R
New York: Cuomo(I) - 64%, Astorino - 35%. Safe D
Ohio: Kasich(I) - 53%, FitzGerald - 45%. Lean R
Oklahoma: Fallin(I) - 62%, Dorman - 37%. Safe R
Oregon: Kitzhaber(I) - 58%, Richardson - 40%. Safe D
Pennsylvania: Wolf - 58%, Corbett(I) - 40%. Safe D?
Rhode Island: Raimondo - Safe D
South Carolina: Haley(I) - 53%, Sheheen - 46%. Likely R
South Dakota: Dauggard(I) - 61%, Wismer - 38%. Safe R
Tennessee: Haslam(I) - Safe R
Texas: Abbott(I) - 56%, Davis - 42%. Safe R
Vermont: Shumlin(I) - Safe D
Wisconsin: Walker(I) - Lean R
Wyoming: Mead(I) - Safe R

Bolded represents states that I think will flip. I'm predicting a net gain of 1 for D's (loss for AR, IL, pickup for ME, FL, PA)

My profile prediction here
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Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
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« Reply #71 on: June 29, 2014, 04:30:13 PM »

Dems pickup Ga,FL,KS, WI, Pa. RI and ME

R's pickup ARK
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NHLiberal
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« Reply #72 on: June 30, 2014, 04:08:59 PM »
« Edited: June 30, 2014, 04:11:00 PM by NHLiberal »

To clarify, for races that "Lean R" but where I predict a Democratic pickup, that's because if the election was today the Republican would win but I see the race shifting toward the Democrat over the next several months.

Alabama: Robert Bentley (Safe R)
Alaska: Sean Parnell (Safe R)
Arizona: Doug Ducey (Lean R)
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (Toss-Up)

California: Jerry Brown (Safe D)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (Lean D)

Connecticut: Tom Foley (Toss-Up)
Florida: Charlie Crist (Lean D)
Georgia: Jason Carter (Lean R)
Hawaii: David Ige (Likely D)
Idaho: Butch Otter (Safe R)
Illinois: Bruce Rauner (Toss-Up)

Iowa: Terry Branstad (Likely R)
Kansas: Paul Davis (Toss-Up)
Maine: Mike Michaud (Lean D)
Maryland: Anthony Brown (Likely D)
Massachusetts: Martha Coakley (Likely D)
Michigan: Mark Schauer (Toss-Up)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (Safe D)

Nebraska: Pete Ricketts (Likely R)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (Safe R)

New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (Safe D)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (Likely R)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D)
Ohio: John Kasich (Lean R)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (Safe R)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (Safe D)
Pennsylvania: Tom Wolf (Likely D)
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (Likely D)
South Carolina: Vincent Sheheen (Lean R)
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (Safe R)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (Safe R)
Texas: Greg Abbott (Safe R)

Vermont: Peter Shumlin (Safe D)
Wisconsin: Mary Burke (Lean R)

Wyoming: Matt Mead (Safe R)

D+5
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Dixie Reborn
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« Reply #73 on: July 12, 2014, 09:20:05 PM »



Most of this will likely change later.
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Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
olawakandi
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Posts: 87,456
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« Reply #74 on: July 13, 2014, 07:44:23 AM »

Dem IL, Pa, RI and ME

Tossup FL, MI, CO and ARK
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