2014 Gubernatorial Predictions
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 18, 2024, 11:29:01 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election Predictions (Moderator: muon2)
  2014 Gubernatorial Predictions
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5
Latest 2014 Predictions (Highest Scores)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
jamesyons (R-VA)MapProfile 10-23 11 I +1 22 (0) 13 (-1) 1 (+1) 0
ryer (R-VA)Map 11-02 3 R +4 26 (+4) 10 (-4) 0 (0) 0
Timothy87 (R-VA)MapProfile 11-04 4 Even 23 (+1) 12 (-2) 1 (+1) 0
Impy (R-IL)MapProfile 11-02 1 R +4 26 (+4) 10 (-4) 0 (0) 0
JonathanSwift (R-GA)MapProfile 11-03 11 Even 20 (-2) 15 (+1) 1 (+1) 0
axlee73 (I-GA)Map 11-04 6 I +1 21 (-1) 14 (0) 1 (+1) 0
Mark Warner 08 (I-AUT)MapProfile 11-04 8 D +2 19 (-3) 16 (+2) 1 (+1) 0
Reaganfan (R-OH)MapProfile 11-04 1 I +1 21 (-1) 14 (0) 1 (+1) 0
bore (O-GBR)MapProfile 11-02 1 I +1 21 (-1) 14 (0) 1 (+1) 0
boyohio02 (O-CA)Map 11-03 5 I +1 21 (-1) 14 (0) 1 (+1) 0
Latest 2014 Predictions (Most Recent Entries)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
ThePoliticalGuy (D-CA)MapProfile 11-04 15 Even 20 (-2) 15 (+1) 1 (+1) 0
thornestorm (G-CA)Map 11-04 2 D +5 16 (-6) 19 (+5) 1 (+1) 0
Wilbur84 (I-MA)MapProfile 11-04 6 D +2 20 (-2) 16 (+2) 0 (0) 0
Political Lefty (D-CA)MapProfile 11-04 1 D +3 18 (-4) 17 (+3) 1 (+1) 0
Gass3268 (D-MD)MapProfile 11-04 2 D +5 16 (-6) 19 (+5) 1 (+1) 0
BrandenCordeiro (--AFG)MapProfile 11-04 10 R +2 24 (+2) 11 (-3) 1 (+1) 0
Olawakandi (G-CA)MapProfile 11-04 402 D +8 13 (-9) 22 (+8) 1 (+1) 0
Liberalrocks (D-CA)MapProfile 11-04 53 D +4 17 (-5) 18 (+4) 1 (+1) 0
ilikeverin (D-NY)MapProfile 11-04 1 D +1 21 (-1) 15 (+1) 0 (0) 0
MilesC56 (I-VA)MapProfile 11-04 31 D +3 18 (-4) 17 (+3) 1 (+1) 0
Latest 2014 Predictions (Most Recent Comments)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
ifhgsfj (D-MD)
by ifhgsfj on 2015-07-24 @ 21:21:36
MapProfile 03-18 1 I +1 21 (-1) 13 (0) 2 (+1) 2
MATTROSE94 (D-NJ)
by MATTROSE94 on 2014-11-10 @ 10:47:04
MapProfile 11-03 30 I +1 21 (-1) 14 (0) 1 (+1) 1
colin (I-ON)
by colin on 2014-11-05 @ 00:27:04
MapProfile 11-03 12 R +2 24 (+2) 12 (-2) 0 (0) 1
nyancat (R-CA)
by nyancat on 2014-11-04 @ 02:08:01
MapProfile 11-04 10 D +2 19 (-3) 16 (+2) 1 (+1) 1
BushCountry (I-IN)
by BushCountry on 2014-11-04 @ 00:06:55
MapProfile 11-04 31 I +1 22 (0) 13 (-1) 1 (+1) 1
nyancat (R-CA)
by nyancat on 2014-11-02 @ 17:08:31
MapProfile 11-02 9 Even 20 (-2) 15 (+1) 1 (+1) 1
Olawakandi (G-CA)
by MATTROSE94 on 2014-11-01 @ 15:22:36
MapProfile 10-16 386 D +8 13 (-9) 22 (+8) 1 (+1) 1
mphacker (I-WI)
by wifikitten on 2014-10-27 @ 10:59:33
Map 10-27 1 D +2 19 (-3) 16 (+2) 1 (+1) 1
wifikitten (D-MO)
by RMH8824 on 2014-10-27 @ 10:59:01
MapProfile 10-19 29 D +2 19 (-3) 16 (+2) 1 (+1) 2
nyancat (R-CA)
by nyancat on 2014-10-26 @ 14:53:08
MapProfile 10-26 8 I +1 21 (-1) 14 (0) 1 (+1) 1
Latest Discussion Topics
Author Topic: 2014 Gubernatorial Predictions  (Read 321466 times)
Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,456
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #75 on: August 10, 2014, 08:47:09 AM »

People are mad about Quinn's performance. But, it is also Obama's homestate.

NM and MI as well as FL should be on the closely watched list. But IL will be close for Quinn once Cook comes in.
Logged
Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,918
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #76 on: August 10, 2014, 09:28:16 AM »

No net change; Democrats gain Pennsylvania and Rhode Island and Florida while simultaneously Republicans pick up Illinois and Hawaii and Arkansas.

Does nobody know that Lincoln switched officially to Democrat? And add on a Republican win in CT.
Logged
Flake
Flo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,688
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #77 on: August 10, 2014, 11:45:39 PM »



Update
Logged
Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,456
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #78 on: August 11, 2014, 09:18:55 AM »

Dems win WI, NM and FL as well as Pa and ME

R's win ARK, CT or HI

3-4 seat net D gain
Logged
Flake
Flo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,688
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #79 on: August 13, 2014, 06:10:39 PM »

Election night 2014 we may be well be sitting back & watching both Kansas governor & senate go Democrat. That means watch Iowa Senate & cross our fingers for a close VirginiPrereading a textbook chapter is an active learning strategy that can improve the “communication” between the textbook author and the student. Through prereading, the student develops a mental outline for the entire chapter. This outline is the framework whereby concepts new to the student can be readily learned during more thorough chapter reading or classroom lecture. Prereading allows the student to develop a realistic study plan by providing insight into the length and level of difficulty of the chapter.a election for Senate & see North Carolina senate become like New York governor '94. It is possible both Kansas Senate & Governor go Democrat & Republicans control the Senate.

Interesting thoughts. I definitely agree with the textbook part.
Logged
Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,456
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #80 on: September 01, 2014, 08:11:31 PM »

AK Dem pickup
AR Ross def Hutchinson
FL Crist def Scott D pickup
IL Quinn def Rauner
ME Michaud def LePage D pickup
PA Wolf def Corbett D pickup
RI Raimondo wins
WI Burke  def Walker D pickup
Logged
International Brotherhood of Bernard
interstate73
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 651


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #81 on: September 01, 2014, 08:36:32 PM »

AK Dem Indie pickup if Bill Walker and Mallot unify their tickets
AR Ross def Hutchinson
FL Crist def Scott D pickup
IL Quinn def Rauner
ME Michaud def LePage D pickup
PA Wolf def Corbett D pickup
RI Raimondo wins
WI Burke  def Walker D pickup
Logged
Flake
Flo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,688
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #82 on: September 02, 2014, 10:19:16 AM »

Logged
NHLiberal
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 790


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #83 on: September 06, 2014, 10:09:56 PM »


This is my exact map as well

EDIT: except Florida
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #84 on: September 12, 2014, 04:39:52 PM »
« Edited: September 14, 2014, 01:41:45 PM by ElectionsGuy »

Post-Primary Season Update:

Safe D: CA, MD, MN, NH, NY, OR, RI, VT
Likely D: HI, MA, PA
Lean D: CO
Toss-Up: CT, FL, IL, KS, ME, WI
Lean R: AK, AZ, AR, GA, MI
Likely R: IA, NM, OH, SC
Safe R: AL, ID, NE, NV, OK, SD, TN, TX, WY

Guesstimate for percent margins.

Alabama:

Bentley: 62%
Griffith: 38%

Alaska:

Parnell: 50%
Walker: 46%

Arizona:


Ducey: 51%

DuVal: 46%

Arkansas:

Hutchison: 53%
Ross: 46%

California:


Brown: 62%
Kashkari: 38%

Colorado:

Hickenlooper: 52%
Beauprez: 46%

Connecticut:

Foley: 50%
Malloy: 49%

Florida:

Scott: 49%
Crist: 47%

Georgia:

Deal: 51%
Carter: 47%

Hawaii:

Ige: 56%
Aiona: 43%

Idaho:

Otter: 61%
Balukoff: 36%

Illinois:


Rauner: 49%
Quinn: 48%

Iowa:

Branstad: 58%
Hatch: 40%

Kansas:


Brownback: 48%
Davis: 47%

Maine:


Michaud: 44%

LePage: 42%
Cutler: 14%

Maryland:


Brown: 60%
Hogan: 39%

Massachusetts:


Coakley: 54%
Baker: 44%

Michigan:


Snyder: 51%
Schauer: 47%

Minnesota:


Dayton: 56%
Johnson: 41%

Nebraska:


Ricketts: 57%
Hassebrook: 42%

Nevada:

Sandoval: 58%

Goodman: 39%

New Hampshire:

Hassan: 59%
Havenstein: 41%

New Mexico:


Martinez: 54%
King: 46%

New York:

Cuomo: 64%
Astorino: 34%

Ohio:

Kasich: 57%
FitzGerald: 42%

Oklahoma:

Fallin: 59%
Dorman: 40%

Oregon:

Kitzhaber: 57%
Richardson: 41%

Pennsylvania:

Wolf: 59%
Corbett: 40%

Rhode Island:


Raimondo: 61%
Fung: 37%

South Carolina:


Haley: 53%
Shaheen: 43%
Ervin: 9%

South Dakota:

Daugaard: 62%
Wismer: 37%

Tennessee:

Haslam: 65%
Brown: 34%

Texas:

Abbott: 56%

Davis: 42%

Vermont:


Shumlin: 63%
Milne: 34%

Wisconsin:

Walker: 50%
Burke: 49%

Wyoming:

Mead: 67%

Gosar: 31%

Profile Prediction (probably needs updating)

Net gain R+1. This result may seem republican-skewed due to the fact I'm predicting republicans hold on in many tight races (Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, Kansas) and defeat incumbents (Illinois, Connecticut). Recent changes have been Minnesota from Likely D to Safe D, Alaska from Safe R to Lean R, and Wisconsin from Lean R to Toss-up. And changes in winners have been from Malloy to Foley in Connecticut. This is certainly SUBJECT TO CHANGE, I would actually be surprised if Republicans did this good in November. A realistic prediction is anywhere from R+3 to D+5. This is going to be one crazy year for governors races!
Logged
Vega
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,253
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #85 on: September 28, 2014, 03:45:05 PM »



Updated my map.
Logged
Flake
Flo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,688
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #86 on: September 28, 2014, 04:13:22 PM »

Logged
Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,456
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #87 on: October 05, 2014, 09:23:00 AM »

Walker 34
Parnell 31

Hick 53
Beauprez 47


King 50.5
Martinez 50

Scott 50
Crist 48

Ige        50
Alona    49

Quinn 47
Rauner 45

Michaud 40
Lepage    36

Schauer 50
Snyder   48


Wolf      59
Corbett 38
Logged
Illuminati Blood Drinker
phwezer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,528
United States


Political Matrix
E: -9.42, S: -7.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #88 on: October 09, 2014, 07:29:04 PM »

Alabama: Robert Bentley (R) (Safe R)
Alaska: Bill Walker (I) (Tossup)
Arizona: Doug Ducey (R) (Lean R)
California: Jerry Brown (D) (Safe D)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D) (Tossup)
Connecticut: Tom Foley (R) (Tossup)
Florida: Rick Scott (Lean R)
Georgia: Nathan Deal (R) (Lean R)
Hawaii: David Ige (D) (Lean D)
Idaho: Butch Otter (R) (Safe R)
Illinois: Pat Quinn (D) (Tossup)
Iowa: Terry Brandstad (R) (Safe R)
Kansas: Paul Davis (D) (Tossup)
Maine: Michael Michaud (D) (Tossup [F[inks]ing Cutler])
Maryland: Anthony Brown (D) (Lean D)
Massachusetts: Martha Coakley (D) (Tossup)
Michigan: Mark Schauer (D) (Tossup)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D) (Safe D)
Nebraska: Pete Ricketts (R) (Safe R)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R) (Safe R)
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D) (Safe D)
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R) (Safe R)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D) (Safe D)
Ohio: John Kasich (R) (Safe R)
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (Safe R)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D) (Safe D)
Pennsylvania: Tom Wolf (D) (Safe D)
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (D) (Safe D)
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R) (Lean R)
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R) (Safe R)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R) (Safe R)
Texas: Greg Abbott (R) (Safe R)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D) (Safe D)
Wisconsin: Mary Burke (D) (Tossup)
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R) (Safe R)
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #89 on: October 12, 2014, 03:40:42 PM »
« Edited: October 12, 2014, 03:53:08 PM by ElectionsGuy »

Update (2nd last before 11/4)Sad

Safe D: CA, NH, NY, OR, PA, VT
Likely D: HI, MD, MN, RI
Lean D: CO, IL, MA
Toss-Up: AK, CT, FL, KS, ME
Lean R: AZ, AR, GA, MI, WI
Likely R: NM, SC
Safe R: AL, ID, IA, NE, NV, OH, OK, SD, TN, TX, WY

Changes since last update:

MD: Safe D --> Likely D
MN: Safe D --> Likely D
RI: Safe D --> Likely D
PA: Likely D --> Safe D
MA: Likely D --> Lean D
IL: Toss-Up --> Lean D
WI: Toss-Up --> Lean R
AK: Lean R --> Toss-Up
IA: Likely R --> Safe R
OH: Likely R --> Safe R

Profile Prediction

Guesstimate for margins of competitive races:

Alaska:

Parnell - 50%
Walker - 47%

Arizona:

Ducey - 51%
DuVal - 46%

Arkansas:

Hutchinson - 53%
Ross - 46%

Colorado:

Hickenlooper - 51%
Beauprez - 47%

Connecticut:

Malloy - 48%
Foley - 45%

Florida:

Crist - 47%
Scott - 46%

Georgia:

Deal - 50% (just enough to avoid runoff)
Carter - 47%

Illinois:

Quinn - 52%
Rauner - 46%

Kansas:

Davis - 49%
Brownback - 47%

Maine:

Michaud - 43%
LePage - 42%
Cutler - 15%

Massachusetts:

Coakley - 52%
Baker - 47%

Michigan:

Snyder - 50%
Schauer - 48%

Wisconsin:


Walker - 51%
Burke - 48%

For a net pickup of D+3
, with 27 Republican governors and 23 Democratic governors.
Logged
Flake
Flo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,688
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #90 on: October 18, 2014, 01:52:50 PM »

FWIW, my most hackish map:



This was in October 2013
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,890
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #91 on: October 22, 2014, 05:01:46 AM »

Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,890
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #92 on: October 28, 2014, 03:29:25 PM »

Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #93 on: November 02, 2014, 04:04:30 PM »

Final Prediction

Safe D: PA
Likely D: HI, RI
Lean D/I: AK, IL, KS, MD
Toss-Up: CO, CT, FL, ME
Lean R: GA, MA, MI, WI
Likely R: AZ, AR, SC

Changes since last prediction:

MN: Likely D --> Safe D
MD: Likely D --> Lean D
CO: Lean D --> Toss-Up
MA: Lean D --> Lean R
AK: Toss-Up --> Lean I
KS: Toss-Up --> Lean D
AZ: Lean R --> Likely R
AR: Lean R --> Likely R
NM: Likely R --> Safe R

Margins for close states:

Alaska:

Walker - 50%
Parnell - 47%

Arizona:

Ducey - 53%
DuVal - 44%

Arkansas:

Hutchinson - 54%
Ross - 45%

Colorado:

Hickenlooper - 49%
Beauprez - 47%

Connecticut:

Malloy - 48%
Foley - 46%

Florida:

Crist - 47%
Scott - 46%

Georgia:

Deal - 49%
Carter - 48%

Deal - 53%
Carter - 47%

Hawaii:

Ige - 54%
Aiona - 42%

Illinois:

Quinn - 51%
Rauner - 47%

Kansas:

Davis - 50%
Brownback - 46%

Maine:

Michaud - 44%
LePage - 44%
Cutler - 8%

Massachusetts:

Baker - 51%
Coakley - 48%

Maryland:

Brown - 53%
Hogan - 46%

Michigan:

Snyder - 50%
Schauer - 48%

South Carolina:

Haley - 53%
Sheheen - 43%

Wisconsin:

Walker - 50%
Burke - 49%

(Bolded = Incumbent)

Profile Prediction

Net D+2, with one I pickup. 27 Republicans, 22 Democrats, 1 Independent.
Logged
Flake
Flo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,688
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #94 on: November 03, 2014, 07:19:30 PM »



Final Prediction: 24 Democrats, 25 Republicans, 1 Independent
Logged
SWE
SomebodyWhoExists
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,220
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #95 on: November 03, 2014, 09:06:57 PM »

FINAL UPDATE:
Alabama: Robert Bentley (R) def. Parker Griffith (D) SAFE R
Alaska: Bill Walker (I) def. Sean Parnell (R) TOSSUP/TILT I
Arizona: Doug Ducey (R)def. Fred DuVal (D)  LEAN R
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R) def. Mike Ross (D)  LIKELY R

California: Jerry Brown (D) def. Neel Kashkari (R) SAFE D
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D) def. Bob Beauprez (R) LEAN D
Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D) def. Tom Foley (R) LEAN D
Florida: Charlie Crist (D) def. Rick Scott (R)  LEAN D

Georgia:Nathan Deal (R) def. Jason Carter (D)TOSSUP/TILT R
Hawaii: David Ige (D) def. Duke Aiona (R) SAFE D
Idaho: Butch Otter (R) def. A. J. Balukoff (d)  SAFE R
Illinois: Pat Quinn (D) def. Bruce Rauner (R) LEAN D
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R) def. Jack Hatch (D) SAFE R
Kansas: Paul Davis (D) def. Sam Brownback LEAN D
Maine: Mike Michaud (D) def. Paul Le Page (R) def. Eliot Cutler (I) LEAN D

Maryland: Anthony Brown (D) def. Lawrence Hogan LIKELY D

Massachusetts: Charlie Baker (R) def.  Martha Coakley (D) TOSSUP/TILT R
Michigan: Rick Snyder (R) def. Mark Schauer (D)  TOSSUP/TILT R

Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D) def. Jeff Johnson (R) SAFE D
Nebraska: Pete Ricketts (R) def. Chuck Hassebrook (D) SAFE R
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R) def. Bob Goodman (D)  SAFE R

New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D) def. Walt Havenstein (R) SAFE D
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R) def. Gary King (D)  SAFE R
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D) def. Rob Astorino (R) SAFE D
Ohio: John Kasich (R) def. Ed Fitzgerald (D) SAFE R
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin(R) def. Joe Dorman SAFE R

Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D) def. Dennis Richardson (R) SAFE D
Pennsylvania: Tom Wolf (D) def. Tom Corbett SAFE D
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (D) def. Allan Fung (R)  LIKELY D

South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R) def. Vincent Shaheen (D) LIKELY R
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R) def. Susan Wismer (D)  SAFE R
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R) def. Charlie Brown (D) SAFE R
Texas: Greg Abbott (R) def. Wendy Davis SAFE R

Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D) def. Scott Milne (R)  SAFE D
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R) def. Mary Burke (D)  TOSSUP/TILT R
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R) def. Pete Gosar (D) SAFE R


A net gain of D+2
Logged
nolesfan2011
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,411
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.68, S: -7.48

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #96 on: November 03, 2014, 10:20:15 PM »

*denotes flip

AL: (I) Robert Bentley (R) over 60%
*AK: Bill Walker (I/D) 49% (I) Sean Parnell (R) 47% Others 4%
AZ: Doug Ducey (R) 53% Fred DuVal (D) 44% Others 3%
*AR: Asa Hutchinson (R) 52% Mike Ross (D) 45% Others 3%
CA: (I) Jerry Brown (D) over 60%
CO: (I) John Hickenlooper (D) 50% Bob Beauprez (R) 48% Others 2%
*CT: Tom Foley (R) 48% (I)Dan Malloy (D) 47% Others 5%
FL: (I) Rick Scott (R) 48% Charlie Crist 47% Others (mainly Adrian Wylie (L)) 5%
GA: (I)Nathan Deal (R) 49% Jason Carter (D) 47% Andrew Hunt (L) 4%. Georgia will go to a runoff if Deal does not break 50%
HI: David Ige (D) 52% Duke Aiona (R) 40% Mufi Hannemann (I) 7% Others 1%
ID: (I) Butch Otter (R) over 55%
IL: (I) Pat Quinn (D) 51% Bruce Rauner (R) 47% Others 2%
IA: (I) Terry Branstad (R) over 55%
*KS: Paul Davis (D) 49% (I) Sam Brownback (R) 46% Keen Umbehr (L) 5%
*ME: Mike Michaud (D) 47% (I) Paul LePage (R) 45% Eliot Cutler (I) 8%
MD: Anthony Brown (D) 52% Larry Hogan (R) 46% Other 2%
*MA: Charlie Baker (R) 49% Martha Coakley (D) 46% Others 5%
*MI: Mark Schauer (D) 50% (I) Rick Snyder (R) 49% Others 1%
MN: (I) Mark Dayton (D) under 55%
NE: Pete Ricketts (R) over 55%
NV: (I) Brian Sandoval (R) over 60%
NH: (I) Maggie Hassan (D) 54% Walt Havenstein (R) 46%
NM: (I)Susana Martinez (R) over 55%
NY: (I) Andrew Cuomo (D) over 55% Howie Hawkins (G) over 10%
OH: (I) John Kasich (R) over 60%
OK: (I) Mary Fallin (R) over 55%
OR: (I) John Kitzhaber (D) under 55%
*PA: Tom Wolf (D) under 55% (incumbent (R) Tom Corbett loses but breaks 40%)
RI: Gina Raimondo (D) 46% Allen Fung (R) 42% Robert Healey (I) 10% Others 2%
SC: (I) Nikki Haley (R) under 55%
SD: (I) Dennis Daugaard (R) over 60%
TN: (I) Bill Haslam (R) over 60%
TX: Greg Abbott (R) over 55%
VT: (I) Peter Shumlin (D) over 55%
WI: (I) Scott Walker (R) 50% Mary Burke (D) 49% Others 1%
WY: (I) Matt Mead (R) over 60%
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #97 on: November 04, 2014, 01:18:37 AM »



Final Prediction: 24 Democrats, 25 Republicans, 1 Independent

Same as this, though our shades may differ in a few.
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,451
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #98 on: November 04, 2014, 05:01:10 AM »

Bold denotes a party switch.

AL: (I) Robert Bentley (R) over 60%
AK: Bill Walker (I/D) 50% (I) Sean Parnell (R) 46% Others 4%
AZ: Doug Ducey (R) 54% Fred DuVal (D) 44% Others 2%
AR: Asa Hutchinson (R) 52% Mike Ross (D) 45% Others 3%
CA: (I) Jerry Brown (D) 60% Neel Kashkari (R) 40%
CO: (I) John Hickenlooper (D) 48% Bob Beauprez (R) 49% Others 3%
CT: Tom Foley (R) 46% (I)Dan Malloy (D) 48% Others 6%
FL: (I) Rick Scott (R) 46% Charlie Crist 47% Others 7%
GA: (I)Nathan Deal (R) 48% Jason Carter (D) 45% Andrew Hunt (L) 5%. Runoff: Deal 52%; Carter 48%
HI: David Ige (D) 52% Duke Aiona (R) 40% Mufi Hannemann (I) 7% Others 1%
ID: (I) Butch Otter (R) over 55%
IL: (I) Pat Quinn (D) 49% Bruce Rauner (R) 47% Others 5%
IA: (I) Terry Branstad (R) 60% Jack Hatch 37% others 3%
KS: Paul Davis (D) 48% (I) Sam Brownback (R) 46% Keen Umbehr (L) 5%
ME: Mike Michaud (D) 45% (I) Paul LePage (R) 44% Eliot Cutler (I) 10%
MD: Anthony Brown (D) 52% Larry Hogan (R) 46% Other 2%
MA: Charlie Baker (R) 49% Martha Coakley (D) 46% Others 5%
MI: Mark Schauer (D) 47% (I) Rick Snyder (R) 49% Others 4%
MN: (I) Mark Dayton (D) 52% Jeff Johnson (R) 45% Others 3%
NE: Pete Ricketts (R) over 55%
NV: (I) Brian Sandoval (R) over 60%
NH: (I) Maggie Hassan (D) 53% Walt Havenstein (R) 45%
NM: (I)Susana Martinez (R) 56% Gary King (D) 43% others 1%
NY: (I) Andrew Cuomo (D) over 55%, Rob Astorino (R) 30%, Howie Hawkins (G) 9%
OH: (I) John Kasich (R) 62% Ed FitzGerald 35% others 5%
OK: (I) Mary Fallin (R) over 55%
OR: (I) John Kitzhaber (D) 51% Bill Richardson (R) 46%
PA: Tom Wolf (D) 53% Tom Corbett (R) 46%
RI: Gina Raimondo (D) 46% Allen Fung (R) 42% Robert Healey (I) 10% Others 2%
SC: (I) Nikki Haley (R) under 55%
SD: (I) Dennis Daugaard (R) over 60%
TN: (I) Bill Haslam (R) over 60%
TX: Greg Abbott (R) 56% Wendy Davis (D) 43%
VT: (I) Peter Shumlin (D) over 55%
WI: (I) Scott Walker (R) 50% Mary Burke (D) 48% Others 2%
WY: (I) Matt Mead (R) around 65%
Logged
Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,562
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #99 on: November 28, 2014, 05:45:49 PM »
« Edited: November 28, 2014, 05:50:38 PM by Vosem »

Before the results of the gubernatorial elections prediction contest are announced, I want to note that the three final entries were submitted after the deadline (by Atheist2006, Juin, and jgsf1987), and that these predictors had access to some election results when they posted their predictions. They should either be disqualified, or simply have the penultimate predictions entered rather than the final ones (or earlier ones, if penultimate predictions were also made with access to election results). No Senate predictions were made with access to election results.

EDIT: If you remove predictions made with access to results, just one person predicted Larry Hogan's victory in Maryland -- slick67! Some congratulations are definitely in order, even if some of the other interesting parts of that prediction didn't take place.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 1.307 seconds with 11 queries.