2014 Gubernatorial Predictions

[ElectionsGuy]

Alabama: Robert Bentley (R) --> Safe R
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R) --> Safe R
Arizona: Republican (R) --> Lean R
Arkansas: Asa Hutchison (R) --> Lean R
California: Jerry Brown (D) --> Safe D
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D) --> Lean D
Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D) --> Lean D
Florida: Charlie Crist (D) --> Lean D
Georgia: Nathan Deal (R) --> Likely R
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D) --> Likely D
Idaho: Butch Otter (R) --> Safe R
Illinois: Pat Quinn (D) --> Lean D
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R) --> Likely R
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R) --> Likely R
Maine: Michael Michaud (D) --> Toss-Up
Maryland: Anthony Brown (D) --> Likely D
Massachusetts: Martha Coakley (D) --> Likely D
Michigan: Rick Snyder (R) --> Toss-Up
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D) --> Likely D
Nebraska: Republican (R) --> Safe R
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R) --> Likely R
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D) --> Likely D
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R) --> Likely R
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D) --> Safe D
Ohio: John Kasich (R) --> Lean R
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (R) --> Safe R
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D) --> Safe D
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz (D) --> Lean D
Rhode Island: Democrat (D) --> Likely D
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R) --> Likely R
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R) --> Safe R
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R) --> Safe R
Texas: Greg Abbott (R) --> Safe R
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D) --> Safe D
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R) --> Lean R
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R) --> Safe R

Here's my profile governor prediction

For a net gain of D+2 (28-22). These are obviously subject to change, and we're likely to have more unexpected and unpredictable races here than anywhere else.

Update: Moving SC from Lean R to Likely R

[ElectionsGuy]

Illinois: Pat Quinn (D hold) - ( Very unpopular governor, but Illinois is a strong Democratic state and despite his unpopularity the GOP challengers have not managed to gain a solid lead against him)

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=187007.0

May be a bad poll, but they've definitely managed to worry the dems about this race.

Texas: Greg Abbott (R Hold) - (I still want to wait a bit on this race though because it is special)

What's special about it? The fact that democrats got a star candidate they wanted? I don't think this will be any different when it comes to the result.

[ElectionsGuy]

Update:



Rhode Island: Likely --> Safe D
Maryland: Likely --> Safe D
Illinois: Lean D --> Toss-Up
Arkansas: Lean R --> Toss-Up
Michigan: Toss-Up --> Lean R
Kansas: Safe --> Likely R

I could probably move Pennsylvania to Likely D now, but I'll wait.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm going to do a complete update, re-link to signature, and add percentages to Illinois and Texas since candidates are determined. In some of these I'm also predicting who is going to win the non-incumbent primary, which I could be certainly wrong on, particularly for Nebraska, Rhode Island, and Arizona.

Alabama: Robert Bentley (R) - Safe R
Alaska: Sean Parnell (R) - Safe R
Arizona: Ken Bennett (R) - Lean R
*Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson (R) - Toss-Up
California: Jerry Brown (D) - Safe D
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D) - Lean D
Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D) - Lean D
*Florida: Charlie Crist (D) - Lean D
Georgia: Nathan Deal (R) - Lean R
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (D) - Likely D
Idaho: Butch Otter (R) - Safe R
Illinois: Pat Quinn (D) - 49%, Bruce Rauner (R) - 47%. Toss-Up
Iowa: Terry Branstad (R) - Likely R
Kansas: Sam Brownback (R) - Likely R
*Maine: Mike Michaud (D) - Lean D
Maryland: Anthony Brown (D) - Safe D
Massachusetts: Martha Coakley (D) - Likely D
Michigan: Rick Snyder (R) - Lean R
Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D) - Safe D
Nebraska: Pete Ricketts (R) - 60%, Chuck Hassebrook (D) - 38%. Safe R
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R) - Likely R
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D) - Safe D
New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R) - Likely R
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D) - Safe D
Ohio: John Kasich (R) - 52%, Ed FitzGerald (D) - 47%. Lean R
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin (R) - Safe R
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D) - Safe D
*Pennsylvania: Tom Wolf (D) - Likely D
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (D) - Safe D
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R) - Likely R
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R) - Safe R
Tennessee: Bill Haslam (R) - Safe R
Texas: Greg Abbott - 56%, Wendy Davis - 42%. Safe R
Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D) - Safe D
Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R) - Lean R
Wyoming: Matt Mead (R) - Safe R

* Pickup

Net D+2, for a 27-23 R spread for governors of America.

[ElectionsGuy]

Alabama: Robert Bentley - Safe R
Alaska: Sean Parnell - Safe R
Arizona: Ken Bennett - Lean R
Arkansas: Asa Hutchison - 50%, Mike Ross - 48%. Toss-Up
California: Jerry Brown - Safe D
Colorado: John Hickenlooper - Likely D
Connecticut: Dan Malloy - Lean D
Florida: Charlie Crist - Lean D
Georgia: Nathan Deal - 52%, Jason Carter - 46%. Lean R
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie - Likely D
Idaho: Butch Otter - 61%, AJ Balukoff - 38%. Safe R
Illinois: Pat Quinn - 49%, Bruce Rauner - 48%. Toss-Up
Iowa: Terry Branstad - Likely R
Kansas: Sam Brownback - Likely R
Maine: Mike Michaud - Lean D
Maryland: Anthony Brown - Safe D
Massachusetts: Martha Coakley - Likely D
Michigan: Rick Snyder - Lean R
Minnesota: Mark Dayton - Safe D
Nebraska: Pete Ricketts - 58%, Chuck Hassebrook - 40%. Safe R
Nevada: Brian Sandoval - Safe R
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan - Safe D
New Mexico: Susana Martinez - Likely R
New York: Andrew Cuomo - Safe D
Ohio: John Kasich - 53%, Ed Fitzgerald - 46%. Lean R
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin - Safe R
Oregon: John Kitzhaber - 59%, Dennis Richardson - 39%. Safe D
Pennsylvania: Tom Wolf - 57%, Tom Corbett - 41%. Likely D
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo - Safe D
South Carolina: Nikki Haley - Likely R
South Dakota: Dennis Dauggard - Safe R
Tennessee: Bill Haslam - Safe R
Texas: Greg Abbott - 56%, Wendy Davis - 42%. Safe R
Vermont: Peter Shumlin - Safe D
Wisconsin: Scott Walker - Lean R
Wyoming: Matt Mead - Safe R

Bolded = Pickup. My prediction - D+2
In states with already confirmed candidates, I bolded the winner and added percentages.

[ElectionsGuy]

Pennsylvania: Tom Wolf - 57%, Tom Corbett - 41%. Likely D
Texas: Greg Abbott - 56%, Wendy Davis - 42%. Safe R

Is the rating difference because of elasticity in Pennsylvania?

Yes, that and incumbency.

[ElectionsGuy]

Alabama: Bentley(I) - 61%, Griffith - 38%. Safe R
Alaska: Parnell(I) - Safe R
Arizona: Ducey - Lean R
Arkansas: Hutchison - 51%, Ross - 46%. Toss-Up
California: Brown(I) - 63%, Kashkari - 37%. Safe D
Colorado: Hickenlooper(I) - 54%, Beauprez - 44%. Likely D
Connecticut: Malloy(I) - Lean D
Florida: Crist - Toss-Up
Georgia: Deal(I) - 52%, Carter - 47%. Lean R
Hawaii: Ige - Likely D
Idaho: Otter(I) - 62%, Balukoff - 36%. Safe R
Illinois:  Rauner - 49%, Quinn(I) - 48%. Toss-Up
Iowa: Branstad(I) - 56%, Hatch - 42%. Likely R
Kansas: Brownback(I) - Lean R
Maine: Michaud - 44%, LePage(I) - 42%. Lean D
Maryland: Brown - 60%, Hogan - 39%. Safe D
Massachusetts: Coakley - 55%, Baker - 43%. Likely D
Michigan: Snyder(I) - Lean R
Minnesota: Dayton(I) - Safe D
Nebraska: Ricketts - 57%, Hassebrook - 42%. Safe R
Nevada: Sandoval(I) - 61%, Goodman - 36%. Safe R
New Hampshire: Hassan(I) - Safe D
New Mexico: Martinez(I) - 55%, King - 45%. Likely R
New York: Cuomo(I) - 64%, Astorino - 35%. Safe D
Ohio: Kasich(I) - 53%, FitzGerald - 45%. Lean R
Oklahoma: Fallin(I) - 62%, Dorman - 37%. Safe R
Oregon: Kitzhaber(I) - 58%, Richardson - 40%. Safe D
Pennsylvania: Wolf - 58%, Corbett(I) - 40%. Safe D?
Rhode Island: Raimondo - Safe D
South Carolina: Haley(I) - 53%, Sheheen - 46%. Likely R
South Dakota: Dauggard(I) - 61%, Wismer - 38%. Safe R
Tennessee: Haslam(I) - Safe R
Texas: Abbott(I) - 56%, Davis - 42%. Safe R
Vermont: Shumlin(I) - Safe D
Wisconsin: Walker(I) - Lean R
Wyoming: Mead(I) - Safe R

Bolded represents states that I think will flip. I'm predicting a net gain of 1 for D's (loss for AR, IL, pickup for ME, FL, PA)

My profile prediction here

[ElectionsGuy]

Post-Primary Season Update:

Safe D: CA, MD, MN, NH, NY, OR, RI, VT
Likely D: HI, MA, PA
Lean D: CO
Toss-Up: CT, FL, IL, KS, ME, WI
Lean R: AK, AZ, AR, GA, MI
Likely R: IA, NM, OH, SC
Safe R: AL, ID, NE, NV, OK, SD, TN, TX, WY

Guesstimate for percent margins.

Alabama:

Bentley: 62%
Griffith: 38%

Alaska:

Parnell: 50%
Walker: 46%

Arizona:

Ducey: 51%
DuVal: 46%

Arkansas:

Hutchison: 53%
Ross: 46%

California:

Brown: 62%
Kashkari: 38%

Colorado:

Hickenlooper: 52%
Beauprez: 46%

Connecticut:

Foley: 50%
Malloy: 49%

Florida:

Scott: 49%
Crist: 47%

Georgia:

Deal: 51%
Carter: 47%

Hawaii:

Ige: 56%
Aiona: 43%

Idaho:

Otter: 61%
Balukoff: 36%

Illinois:

Rauner: 49%
Quinn: 48%

Iowa:

Branstad: 58%
Hatch: 40%

Kansas:

Brownback: 48%
Davis: 47%

Maine:

Michaud: 44%
LePage: 42%
Cutler: 14%

Maryland:

Brown: 60%
Hogan: 39%

Massachusetts:

Coakley: 54%
Baker: 44%

Michigan:

Snyder: 51%
Schauer: 47%

Minnesota:

Dayton: 56%
Johnson: 41%

Nebraska:

Ricketts: 57%
Hassebrook: 42%

Nevada:

Sandoval: 58%
Goodman: 39%

New Hampshire:

Hassan: 59%
Havenstein: 41%

New Mexico:

Martinez: 54%
King: 46%

New York:

Cuomo: 64%
Astorino: 34%

Ohio:

Kasich: 57%
FitzGerald: 42%

Oklahoma:

Fallin: 59%
Dorman: 40%

Oregon:

Kitzhaber: 57%
Richardson: 41%

Pennsylvania:

Wolf: 59%
Corbett: 40%

Rhode Island:

Raimondo: 61%
Fung: 37%

South Carolina:

Haley: 53%
Shaheen: 43%
Ervin: 9%

South Dakota:

Daugaard: 62%
Wismer: 37%

Tennessee:

Haslam: 65%
Brown: 34%

Texas:

Abbott: 56%
Davis: 42%

Vermont:

Shumlin: 63%
Milne: 34%

Wisconsin:

Walker: 50%
Burke: 49%

Wyoming:

Mead: 67%
Gosar: 31%

Profile Prediction (probably needs updating)

Net gain R+1. This result may seem republican-skewed due to the fact I'm predicting republicans hold on in many tight races (Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, Kansas) and defeat incumbents (Illinois, Connecticut). Recent changes have been Minnesota from Likely D to Safe D, Alaska from Safe R to Lean R, and Wisconsin from Lean R to Toss-up. And changes in winners have been from Malloy to Foley in Connecticut. This is certainly SUBJECT TO CHANGE, I would actually be surprised if Republicans did this good in November. A realistic prediction is anywhere from R+3 to D+5. This is going to be one crazy year for governors races!

[ElectionsGuy]

Update (2nd last before 11/4)

Safe D: CA, NH, NY, OR, PA, VT
Likely D: HI, MD, MN, RI
Lean D: CO, IL, MA
Toss-Up: AK, CT, FL, KS, ME
Lean R: AZ, AR, GA, MI, WI
Likely R: NM, SC
Safe R: AL, ID, IA, NE, NV, OH, OK, SD, TN, TX, WY

Changes since last update:

MD: Safe D --> Likely D
MN: Safe D --> Likely D
RI: Safe D --> Likely D
PA: Likely D --> Safe D
MA: Likely D --> Lean D
IL: Toss-Up --> Lean D
WI: Toss-Up --> Lean R
AK: Lean R --> Toss-Up
IA: Likely R --> Safe R
OH: Likely R --> Safe R

Profile Prediction

Guesstimate for margins of competitive races:

Alaska:

Parnell - 50%
Walker - 47%

Arizona:

Ducey - 51%
DuVal - 46%

Arkansas:

Hutchinson - 53%
Ross - 46%

Colorado:

Hickenlooper - 51%
Beauprez - 47%

Connecticut:

Malloy - 48%
Foley - 45%

Florida:

Crist - 47%
Scott - 46%

Georgia:

Deal - 50% (just enough to avoid runoff)
Carter - 47%

Illinois:

Quinn - 52%
Rauner - 46%

Kansas:

Davis - 49%
Brownback - 47%

Maine:

Michaud - 43%
LePage - 42%
Cutler - 15%

Massachusetts:

Coakley - 52%
Baker - 47%

Michigan:

Snyder - 50%
Schauer - 48%

Wisconsin:

Walker - 51%
Burke - 48%

For a net pickup of D+3, with 27 Republican governors and 23 Democratic governors.

[ElectionsGuy]

Final Prediction

Safe D: PA
Likely D: HI, RI
Lean D/I: AK, IL, KS, MD
Toss-Up: CO, CT, FL, ME
Lean R: GA, MA, MI, WI
Likely R: AZ, AR, SC

Changes since last prediction:

MN: Likely D --> Safe D
MD: Likely D --> Lean D
CO: Lean D --> Toss-Up
MA: Lean D --> Lean R
AK: Toss-Up --> Lean I
KS: Toss-Up --> Lean D
AZ: Lean R --> Likely R
AR: Lean R --> Likely R
NM: Likely R --> Safe R

Margins for close states:

Alaska:

Walker - 50%
Parnell - 47%

Arizona:

Ducey - 53%
DuVal - 44%

Arkansas:

Hutchinson - 54%
Ross - 45%

Colorado:

Hickenlooper - 49%
Beauprez - 47%

Connecticut:

Malloy - 48%
Foley - 46%

Florida:

Crist - 47%
Scott - 46%

Georgia:

Deal - 49%
Carter - 48%

Deal - 53%
Carter - 47%

Hawaii:

Ige - 54%
Aiona - 42%

Illinois:

Quinn - 51%
Rauner - 47%

Kansas:

Davis - 50%
Brownback - 46%

Maine:

Michaud - 44%
LePage - 44%
Cutler - 8%

Massachusetts:

Baker - 51%
Coakley - 48%

Maryland:

Brown - 53%
Hogan - 46%

Michigan:

Snyder - 50%
Schauer - 48%

South Carolina:

Haley - 53%
Sheheen - 43%

Wisconsin:

Walker - 50%
Burke - 49%

(Bolded = Incumbent)

Profile Prediction

Net D+2, with one I pickup. 27 Republicans, 22 Democrats, 1 Independent.