SC-1 special election - May 7th

[Miles]

Karen Tumulty ‏@ktumulty 33m
Interviewed about a dozen voters at @ColbertBuschSC home polling place in Mt Pleasant. All but one had voted for @MarkSanford #sc

No kidding. So a handful of SC-01 voters are voting for Sanford just like a 'handful' of Billy Long's constituents don't like sequestration! 

[Miles]

Karen Tumulty ‏@ktumulty 33m
Interviewed about a dozen voters at @ColbertBuschSC home polling place in Mt Pleasant. All but one had voted for @MarkSanford #sc

No kidding. So a handful of SC-01 voters are voting for Sanford just like a 'handful' of Billy Long's constituents don't like sequestration!  

This is a confusing theory, because in a few hours, Sanford will have acquired thousands of votes.

Eh, I'm only making inferences from what you've posted.

And I'm sure there are likewise  thousands of voters in MO-07 who don't want sequestration.

[BigSkyBob]

Sanford: 51%
Colbert Busch: 47%
Platt: 2%

Assuming the accuracy of the RRH and PPP polls, I would add a point for Sanford due to momentum, and a few points for turnout converging towards the norm as Republican enthusiasm increases. That would be about,

Sanford 51.5%
Colbert Busch 46.5%
Platt <2%

[BigSkyBob]

Karen Tumulty ‏@ktumulty 33m
Interviewed about a dozen voters at @ColbertBuschSC home polling place in Mt Pleasant. All but one had voted for @MarkSanford #sc

No kidding. So a handful of SC-01 voters are voting for Sanford just like a 'handful' of Billy Long's constituents don't like sequestration!  

This is a confusing theory, because in a few hours, Sanford will have acquired thousands of votes.

Eh, I'm only making inferences from what you've posted.

And I'm sure there are likewise  thousands of voters in MO-07 who don't want sequestration.

There might very well be residents of MO-7 on all sides of the sequestration debate. What belies the narcissism of the political class is your jumping from the fact that some folks in MO-7 are for cutting government spending to the conclusion that MO-7 is lousy place to live. Most people who aren't obsessed with politics judge a location on things like the weather, the cost of living, the availability of jobs, and the cultural and recreational opportunities.  MO-7 has grown faster than the national average for a number of decades now. That is people have voted with their feet, and vote they have cast has been for the desirability of the Missouri Ozarks.  Are these hundreds of thousands of people wrong? Or were you, Miles?

[Miles]

There might very well be residents of MO-7 on all sides of the sequestration debate. What belies the narcissism of the political class is your jumping from the fact that some folks in MO-7 are for cutting government spending to the conclusion that MO-7 is lousy place to live. Most people who aren't obsessed with politics judge a location on things like the weather, the cost of living, the availability of jobs, and the cultural and recreational opportunities.  MO-7 has grown faster than the national average for a number of decades now. That is people have voted with their feet, and vote they have cast has been for the desirability of the Missouri Ozarks.  Are these hundreds of thousands of people wrong? Or were you, Miles?

I already said that there were other factors that shape my perception of Missouri. If I judged places solely on politics, I don't think I'd be living where I do now, Bob.

I think you're reading too far into this, as you usually do. I was just floating an idea. No need for you to attack me.

[BigSkyBob]

There might very well be residents of MO-7 on all sides of the sequestration debate. What belies the narcissism of the political class is your jumping from the fact that some folks in MO-7 are for cutting government spending to the conclusion that MO-7 is lousy place to live. Most people who aren't obsessed with politics judge a location on things like the weather, the cost of living, the availability of jobs, and the cultural and recreational opportunities.  MO-7 has grown faster than the national average for a number of decades now. That is people have voted with their feet, and vote they have cast has been for the desirability of the Missouri Ozarks.  Are these hundreds of thousands of people wrong? Or were you, Miles?

I already said that there were other factors that shape my perception of Missouri. If I judged places solely on politics, I don't think I'd be living where I do now, Bob.

I think you're reading too far into this, as you usually do. I was just floating an idea. No need for you to attack me.

Now, I didn't read anything into what you wrote. I read what you wrote, so did Krazen. You simply weren't "floating an idea," you were attacking on a personal level an entire class of people simply because you didn't like the politics of some of those folks.

Whether the fact that you don't judge the folks in Louisiana by the same standard you judged the folks in the Missouri Ozarks is evidence of your innocence or your hypocrisy is itself an interesting question.

[Miles]

Now, I didn't read anything into what you wrote. I read what you wrote, so did Krazen. You simply weren't "floating an idea," you were attacking on a personal level an entire class of people simply because you didn't like the politics of some of those folks.

Whether the fact that you don't judge the folks in Louisiana by the same standard you judged the folks in the Missouri Ozarks is evidence of your innocence or your hypocrisy is itself an interesting question.

Do you still not understand? Some people in Missouri are in favor of sequestration. Good for them. Its not a place I'd want to live myself because of other factors.

A handful of people in SC are voting for Sanford just like a handful of people in Missouri don't like sequestration. I was trying to compare those groups using krazen's logic. Thats all I was doing.

I don't have different standards. You pulled that out of your ass.

Its quite a shame you'll take any chance you can to cheap shot me.

[Miles]

We have these things called elections and the number of voters that support Mr. Sanford will be reasonably well counted and may yet well be a majority. The number of voters that oppose sequestration in Missouri's 7th district is an unknown number in which any fellow can make whatever assumption they choose to suit whatever goal that they have in mind.

Ah! Thanks, krazen. We've only been election-watching together now for a few years, but thanks for giving me the memo!

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Yeah, I was seeing how far I could go with it. I was...curious.

[Marokai Backbeat]

I'll go my traditionally super pessimistic route and say Sanford wins this comfortably with 55%ish.

[Sbane]

I haven't been following this closely, but I think Sanford wins by at least 5 points.

[Zioneer]

3 point Sanford win is my guess. Or a recount that gives Sanford a very narrow win.

[JerryArkansas]

Does anyone have a website were we could get live results from.++

Edit, I found a website.

[RogueBeaver]

Politico usually has the quickest results, polls close at 6.

Recounts: It would start on Friday and be completed "ASAP." <1% margin required.

This being SC, there's been an anti-ECB push poll: "Would you vote for her if you knew she had an abortion?"

http://www.newrepublic.com/article/113133/elizabeth-colbert-busch-abortion-push-poll-contemptible-smear

[Miles]

The results page on the State Elections Commission's site.

[Iosif]

All this pettiness and crap for a meaningless special in a heavily Republican congressional district.

[Maxwell]

All this pettiness and crap for a meaningless special in a heavily Republican congressional district.

Seems to be what happens when a race gets nationalized. I hope those calls backfire, because that's really disgusting behavior.

[RogueBeaver]

Polls are closed.

http://www.politico.com/2013-election/results/house/south-carolina/?hp=lb

[ajc0918]

ECB 42.7%- 331
Sanford 56.8%- 441

Less than 1% in

[free my dawg]

HuffPo seems to be updating faster.

[JerryArkansas]

1st District
0.3% Reporting
M. Sanford   GOP   56.8%    441
E. Colbert Busch   Dem   42.7%    331
E. Platt   Grn   0.5%    4

[Miles]

Up to 61-38 Sanford with Berkeley and Colleton only reporting.

[ajc0918]

From twitter:

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I believe I read somewhere that ECB camp wanted 40% or more of the votes to come from here.

[JerryArkansas]

<1% REPORTING
Colbert Busch
47.5%
980

Sanford
51.9%
1,071

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

With Berkley in, Sanford up 51.9-47.5

[Miles]

The State Election Commission site still doesn't have results