Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[Miles]

Article.

Well, if a Democrat doesn't win, I'm glad that this lessens the chance that that we'll be stuck with Vitter.

[RogueBeaver]

Same here. How would you handicap a Vitter-Dardenne primary?

[Miles]

If it were just the two of them, I think the 2011 LG race would be a pretty good baseline. Dardenne won 53/47.



Vitter was pretty supportive of Nungesser.

Vitter would improve on Nungesser's performance in St. Tammany, Washington, Jefferson and Tanagipahoa parises, but he'd have less appeal in Acadiana.

Dardenne would probably lose some support, but he'd still probably pull  65%-ish in Greater Baton Rouge; he has a very dedicated base there.

The northern parishes would be swingier and would probably decide the winner. Factors like local endorsements would probably be most important there. Nungesser, of course, had no appeal up north, so Dardenne's margins in those parishes are inflated.

Overall, I'd probably give Vitter the edge, but very narrowly.

[Bacon King]

Dardenne would easily beat Vitter.

[Miles]

Southern Media and Opinion Research confirmed PPP's latest findings. They released numbers today putting Jindal at a rough 38% approval. Also, over 60% do not support his proposed tax reforms.

The articles I'm finding on this don't have a ton of specifics, so if anyone can find the actual release, please share it!

Dardenne and Vitter both have approvals "near 60%" as well. Looks like they won't have to worry about going of their way to distance themselves from Jindal. I'm also curious if the poll asked about approvals for Miss Mary.

[DINGO Joe]

Souther Media is something of a boutique firm so there probably won't ever be crosstabs.

Other approvals:

Dardenne 59
Vitter 58
Mitch and Mary 56
Obama 43

http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2013/04/jindal_poll_march_obama_vitter.html#incart_river

[Miles]

Thanks! I just found that article from the Times-Picayune too; it was much better.

[Miles]

Yep, Dardenne/Vitter should be good:

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[RogueBeaver]

I'm not a Dardenne fan, but he's way better than Diaper Birther. What do you think Dardenne's chances are, and who would win Vitter's seat in a hypothetical special election?

[windjammer]

Could Mitch run for the US senate if Vitter runs for governor? After all, we would have the sister and the brother! If he's like his sister, Louisiana would gradly benefit from his service!

[Miles]

Politico is on to this race now:

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[Miles]

Could Mitch run for the US senate if Vitter runs for governor? After all, we would have the sister and the brother! If he's like his sister, Louisiana would gradly benefit from his service!

Yeah, that would be pretty neat. Vitter doesn't necessarily have to relinquish his Senate seat to run for Governor though, unless he actually wins.

[windjammer]

Could Mitch run for the US senate if Vitter runs for governor? After all, we would have the sister and the brother! If he's like his sister, Louisiana would gradly benefit from his service!

Yeah, that would be pretty neat. Vitter doesn't necessarily have to relinquish his Senate seat to run for Governor though, unless he actually wins.

Maybe he supports the two terms limit?

[Miles]

Kip Holden sounds pretty intent on running for the open LG post in 2015.

Baton Rouge local politics never really interested me, but he's been a popular mayor.

[Spamage]

I just found out I'll actually get to meet Dardenne in a few weeks, should be interesting!

[The Arizonan]

Literally every politician I've ever met was aboard my ship the USS John C. Stennis including Mike Rogers (the one from Michigan) and Mike Coffman.

In any case, I prefer Dardenne over Vitter.

EDIT: Where do you get to meet Dardenne?

[Miles]

I just found out I'll actually get to meet Dardenne in a few weeks, should be interesting!

No kidding. Good; he's been a pretty good LG.

[Miles]

LG candidates seem to all of the sudden be coming out of the woodwork. Most notably, Billy Nungesser, who Dardenne beat in 2011, is running again. Nungesser is quite a colorful figure, so the race should be good. Also, FWIW, Vitter backed him over Dardenne.

[Miles]

Maginnis on this contest:

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[RogueBeaver]

Who would ultimately win such a crowded primary? Also what are the chances of Mitch Landrieu running?

[Miles]

Without a Cajun candidate, I could see Vitter pulling in those voters. Gerald Long has a nice base in northern LA, but its mostly rural, I don't why he would perform particuarly well in the bigger cities up north.

I think Mayor Landrieu would wait to see how the R field develops first. Interetingly, as this blog points out, in 2007, he got more votes than Jindal.

[windjammer]

Without a Cajun candidate, I could see Vitter pulling in those voters. Gerald Long has a nice base in northern LA, but its mostly rural, I don't why he would perform particuarly well in the bigger cities up north.

I think Mayor Landrieu would wait to see how the R field develops first. Interetingly, as this blog points out, in 2007, he got more votes than Jindal.

Is there a democrat running?

[TX Conservative Dem]

Mitch Landrieu will likely wait to see how the GOP field settles, but I doubt Vitter really wants to give up that DC money in the United States Senate for a job in Baton Rouge that only limits you to 8 years.

I do NOT see anyone breaking Edwin Edwards' 16-year record anytime soon.

Now on Kip Holden running for Lieutenant Governor: good luck with that because I seriously do NOT see it happening for obvious factors:
1. No African American has won executive statewide office in LA ever.
2. Racially-divisive politics
3. If Holden emerged as the only Democrat running for LG, white Conservative Democrats would bolt to the GOP candidates

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Both seats are likely GOP. Mitch will only win the gubernatorial race if Vitter wins the primary. And that's not gonna happen. Mary should thank her lucky stars that Obqma isn't weighing on her and she is most likely to win but may not avoid a runoff.

[TX Conservative Dem]

So in other words, the LA Dems will have to wait until when to get the governorship back ?
A. 2019
B. 2023

I mean the drought is gonna end sooner or later.