Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[Türkisblau]

Dardenne getting prominent role in Edward's government:

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Could we get a new thread titled "JBE Watch" or something like that?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Dardenne getting prominent role in Edward's government:

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Not surprising. Dardenne wasn't going to destroy his ability to run for office again without getting something in return.

[Miles]

Could we get a new thread titled "JBE Watch" or something like that?

Okay, other than the remaining map/stats I'll post of the election, we can migrate over her for conversation.

[Miles]

Interesting perspective on turnout: Duke polled 17% worse than JBE, but got almost 25K more votes with 80% turnout than JBE did with 40%:



St. Tammany and Lafayette flip to Edwards while Ascension swings to him (all areas that have grown a lot since 1991).

[Miles]

The primary by SD - Edwards got at least pluralities in 26 of 39:






Only considering the Republican vote:

[smoltchanov]

Thanks, Miles! And i can easily understand good Vitter showing in SE part of the state, but why NW? More "ideologically right" Republicans there, for which Vitter was the only "true conservative", and thus - only feasible candidate?

[Miles]

^ My thoughts on that:

Outside of the areas he represented for all 15 years he's been in either House of Congress, his best area was in the northwest, around Shreveport. My initial theory here is that Cajun candidates (Angelle) have underperformed there as of late. For example, in 2010 (one of the only years LA was on a normal primary system for federal elections) Charlie Melancon did relatively poor up north in the Democratic primary. As for the Dardenne, there aren't as many Republicans in his faction up there. Thus, in that area, Vitter became the generic R because of his name recognition.

My theory there crumbles a bit when you consider that if you move to the northeast, closer to Monroe, Angelle (and even Dardenne) was ahead of Vitter in many parishes.

Another explanation may be that John Fleming has always been a Vitter ally, so was able to mobilize local Republicans there for him. Fleming's interest in Vitter's Senate seat was also a big incentive. Down in LA-03, Boustany is also interested in the seat, but wasn't in a position to deliver many votes, given Angelle's favorite son status in that district.

Angelle's northern districts were also very fractured, as he barely beat out Vitter in both.

[smoltchanov]

Thanks, Miles! Well, an explanation is more complex then my simple hypothesis, but, at least, i was partially correct..

[Miles]

AOS did an analysis of the LA runoff.

'Looks like the author stole a lot of my work from this thread, though.

[/]

AOS did an analysis of the LA runoff.

'Looks like the author stole a lot of my work from this thread, though.

What a terrible person that author must be. You should sue him, Miles.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

AOS did an analysis of the LA runoff.

'Looks like the author stole a lot of my work from this thread, though.

He stole your name, too.

Maybe Trump can put out a few angry tweets about this

[Frodo]

When will we know for sure the make-up of the new Louisiana legislature?  I just checked on ballotpedia, and everything is still pending....    

https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_elections,_2015

[smoltchanov]

When will we know for sure the make-up of the new Louisiana legislature?  I just checked on ballotpedia, and everything is still pending....    

https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_elections,_2015

We already know who won in which district. If you mean ideological makeup - 1 year from now (or, may be, 1/2 year - after next legislative session)

[Frodo]

When will we know for sure the make-up of the new Louisiana legislature?  I just checked on ballotpedia, and everything is still pending....    

https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_elections,_2015

We already know who won in which district. If you mean ideological makeup - 1 year from now (or, may be, 1/2 year - after next legislative session)

I meant partisan make-up. 

[Miles]

We already know. The runoffs were over a month ago...

[smoltchanov]

When will we know for sure the make-up of the new Louisiana legislature?  I just checked on ballotpedia, and everything is still pending....    

https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_elections,_2015

We already know who won in which district. If you mean ideological makeup - 1 year from now (or, may be, 1/2 year - after next legislative session)

I meant partisan make-up. 

Senate: 25-14 Republican, House: 61-42-2 Republican. Both Indies also caucus with them..

[Frodo]

When will we know for sure the make-up of the new Louisiana legislature?  I just checked on ballotpedia, and everything is still pending....    

https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_elections,_2015

We already know who won in which district. If you mean ideological makeup - 1 year from now (or, may be, 1/2 year - after next legislative session)

I meant partisan make-up.  

Senate: 25-14 Republican, House: 61-42-2 Republican. Both Indies also caucus with them..

That may be your personal count, but has it been made official yet?   

[smoltchanov]

When will we know for sure the make-up of the new Louisiana legislature?  I just checked on ballotpedia, and everything is still pending....    

https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_elections,_2015

We already know who won in which district. If you mean ideological makeup - 1 year from now (or, may be, 1/2 year - after next legislative session)

I meant partisan make-up.  

Senate: 25-14 Republican, House: 61-42-2 Republican. Both Indies also caucus with them..

That may be your personal count, but has it been made official yet?   

Well, both Indies caucused with Republicans last time, both are conservatively inclined, and it's better to be in majority. So, i see no reasons for them to switch their allegiance. And, frankly, don't care too much whether they will do it..

[Miles]

How the old CD's would have voted:



The biggest change is CD6; as it included all of Baton Rouge, its quite a bit to the left of the state.

JBE also gets within 10% in LA-01, as includes his home Tangipahoa parish instead of reaching down into the bayou.

Other than those and LA-02, the rest all give JBE relatively close but clear wins.

[windjammer]

How the old CD's would have voted:



The biggest change is CD6; as it included all of Baton Rouge, its quite a bit to the left of the state.

JBE also gets within 10% in LA-01, as includes his home Tangipahoa parish instead of reaching down into the bayou.

Other than those and LA-02, the rest all give JBE relatively close but clear wins.

This map seems to be much cleaner than the current one, right?

[Miles]

^ Yep, it has about half as many parish splits as the current one.

[Miles]

BUMP

Wanted to come back to this thread briefly. Jeremy Alford (well-known analyst) and Tyler Bridges (veteran state journalist) teamed up to write this really great book called Long Shot, which chronicles this race.

I've recommended it to a few others on here. They do a good job of capturing the dynamics of state politics and getting behind the major events in the campaign. I think anyone who followed this race, or likes state politics in general, would really enjoy it!

There was a similar book written about the Edwards/Duke race written by John Maginnis years ago, called Cross To Bear. Long Shot is a great follow-up.