Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[Miles]

Well, they're projecting it will be 65%. The SoS site mist be running slow.

Good; the chatter about running for Gov can carry on!

[RogueBeaver]

Do you think he ultimately takes the plunge?

[Miles]

Even with the blowout tonight, I really don't think he wants to. It depends on how hard the party lobbies him.

[RogueBeaver]

Reluctant candidacies don't usually end well either, so I'd guess he stays out regardless.

[DINGO Joe]

Again, while I'm biased, Mayor is a much better job than governor.  Also, a lol tidbit, Bagneris was actually endorsed by the Parish Republican executive committee, the only R actually running for any office, council A, wasn't even endorsed by the executive committee. 

[Miles]

The swing from '10-'14 with the Landrieu vs. non-Landrieu vote. Though the margin was similar, the precinct swings were much more volatile than I was expecting and very much along racial lines. Landrieu improved in the wealthier Uptown section (southwest) and Lakeview (my stompin' grounds) in the west. Landrieu slumped in the rest of the city, which is much blacker.

Turnout was down about 5% from 2010.

[Flake]

I'm surprised all the precincts were counted, and you had time to make that in the span of six and a half hours!

And based on all this Governorship talk I think Landrieu might need this.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Dangit, Flo, I thought that was real for a second.

[Miles]

Well, they're projecting it will be 65%. The SoS site mist be running slow.

Good; the chatter about running for Gov can carry on!

Good, its not just me. I was going by the SoS site and Rogue had already said on anther thread that it was called. Apparently some outlets made an official projection 35 minutes before the SoS site even posted the early votes.

[DINGO Joe]

Well, they're projecting it will be 65%. The SoS site mist be running slow.

Good; the chatter about running for Gov can carry on!

Good, its not just me. I was going by the SoS site and Rogue had already said on the other thread that it was called. Apparently some outlets made an official projection 35 minutes before the SoS site posted the early votes.

WWL called it like 15 minutes after the polls closed.  I assume they had someone down at the Orleans Registrar's office.  Really while the SoS can and should report the vote totals, it's really the Parish that is the official vote report.

It's not uncommon for SoS/BoE sites to lag, in the VA special election last week, I went straight to the Loudon website to get info before the BoE site had it.

[DINGO Joe]

The swing from '10-'14 with the Landrieu vs. non-Landrieu vote. Though the margin was similar, the precinct swings were much more volatile than I was expecting and very much along racial lines. Landrieu improved in the wealthier Uptown section (southwest) and Lakeview (my stompin' grounds) in the west. Landrieu slumped in the rest of the city, which is much blacker.

Turnout was down about 5% from 2010.

Well, 4 years ago Landrieu had white opponents and the black opponents were weaker than Bagneris.  Just making an educated guess, four years ago Landrieu got about 65% of the white and black vote, this time about 90% white 50-55% black.

[Miles]

I've been sitting on these for a while; time to get them out!

These were the two competitive statewide races of 2011 by CD. Both were R-on-R and got very bitter.

LG



Ironically, I'll likely be supporting Dardenne for Gov and Nungesser for LG next year. Vitter endorsed Nungesser, but I think it was more of a strategic move than anything else. If Dardenne lost his seat in 2011, he would be much less viable for Governor in 2015.

SoS



I wanted to see the CD breakdown of this race because it was hard to see how Schedler managed to win with that map. Tucker got Vitter's endorsement has he ran on Schedler not being fiscally conservative enough.

[Miles]

The Hayride, despite discounting his achievements, makes the case for Mitch to run for Gov:

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He has $900K left over in his campaign (and is obviously term-limited).

[TX Conservative Dem]

I would tend to think Mitch wait until 2019.

[Miles]

Awesome. Dardenne would start out about even with Vitter in the fundraising game. He has $1.2 million CoH.

[windjammer]

Frankly, I don't see him winning the governor mansion.

[Miles]

Frankly, I don't see him winning the governor mansion.

Why?

[RogueBeaver]

Depends if Mitch Landrieu or a Dem capable of making the runoff run. Otherwise Dardenne will use McAllister's strategy.

[DINGO Joe]

Ever since Katrina, East Baton Rouge Parish has been the largest in the state and is the location of the state capital--Baton Rouge.  Local government is a unified city-Parish.  While the Parish has a majority white voter registration it's had a black mayor-president since 2004--Kip Holden who was elected mainly because his predecessor couldn't handle transportation issues.  Holden's tenure has be pretty uncontroversial and he's had little difficulty getting reelected.  So, currently the largest white majority jurisdiction has a black mayor and the largest black majority jurisdiction, New Orleans, has a white mayor.  It's sounds almost like MLKy harmony.

Like all central cities, Baton Rouge has experienced white flight, to both the unincorporated parts of the Parish and into adjacent Parishes (mainly Ascension and Livingston).  Now there is a movement in the unincorporated part of the Parish to form a new city called St. George, with it's own school system where the residents will be whiter and wealthier than the city-Parish  they want to leave behind. 

Obviously, this has the potential to be spectacularly ugly.

Details can be in read in this Bloomberg article

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-06/baton-rouge-s-rich-want-new-town-to-keep-poor-pupils-out-taxes.html

[DINGO Joe]

Miles, have you read an scuttle on who wants to mayor in New Orleans after Landrieu (the next election will actually be in the fall of 2017 to move elections away from Mardi Gras/Super Bowl)?

I can see Stacy Head running, but I can't see her winning, same for John Georges, maybe Arnie Felkow could be I don't know what he's doing.  I think the African-American community will be favorably prepossessed to have one of their own in office if they can coalesce  around a good candidate, probably an elected official (I think Nagin has sullied the idea of a "businessman" for mayor for at least a generation), but I have no idea who that could be.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Landrieu won't run for the governorship, so the Louisiana Democrats will have to pick an unknown person.

What's this development I've been hearing on New Orleans moving their mayoral election to 2017 from 2018 ?

[Miles]

dingoje, nah I haven't seen that. I always liked Georges. Yeah, good point about the African Americans.

[Miles]

Landrieu won't run for the governorship, so the Louisiana Democrats will have to pick an unknown person.

Can you please stop making these definitive single-sentence predictions that lack analysis/evidence? It doesn't add anything to the discussion and makes you look like a hack.

[windjammer]

Frankly, I don't see him winning the governor mansion.

Why?

Republicanization, and it will still be Obama. Dardenne is too moderate for losing against Landrieu, and Vitter, despite being extremely conservative and personnally a moron, but (except the prostitute), he has always avoided controversy (for instance he voted for the flood insurance). So Vitter is too skilled.

Honestly, Landrieu should seek the 2016 senate seat: if dardenn wins, this will be open. And he will have some advantages:
-Hillary Clintin might be the the nominee. Of course, I'm not saying she will win LA, but she will overperform Obama in the South, no one can deny that. So in a neutral year, I can see her losing by "only" 10 points.
-And his sister is senator, he might have use her seniority, and I guess te lobbyist prefer to have two senators in their side who will work together than two senators who literally hate each other.

[Miles]

Frankly, I don't see him winning the governor mansion.

Why?

Republicanization, and it will still be Obama. Dardenne is too moderate for losing against Landrieu, and Vitter, despite being extremely conservative and personnally a moron, but (except the prostitute), he has always avoided controversy (for instance he voted for the flood insurance). So Vitter is too skilled.

Honestly, Landrieu should seek the 2016 senate seat: if dardenn wins, this will be open.

Oh, I thought you were talking about Dardenne not winning.

If Dadrenne wins, Vitter would still be Senator and may go for another term.