Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[Miles]

Rodney Alexander might be looking into this race, too.

Geez, who isn't running for LA Governor these days!?

[JacobNC]

Now on Kip Holden running for Lieutenant Governor: good luck with that because I seriously do NOT see it happening for obvious factors:
1. No African American has won executive statewide office in LA ever.
2. Racially-divisive politics
3. If Holden emerged as the only Democrat running for LG, white Conservative Democrats would bolt to the GOP candidates

Tell that to Thurbert Baker, an African American who won several landslide elections as Georgia's Attorney General, garnering a lot of support from conservative Democrats.  I think there is prejudice in the south but it's more complicated than just skin color.

As for a possible Vitter-Dardenne runoff in 2015: there was a map posted earlier in this thread that said Vitter would win the areas Nungesser won in 2011.  I find it hard to believe that he'd be able to win Orleans, though, since Dardenne is much more moderate than Vitter.  If it was purely regional politics, then yes, Vitter might win Orleans.

[Miles]

As for a possible Vitter-Dardenne runoff in 2015: there was a map posted earlier in this thread that said Vitter would win the areas Nungesser won in 2011.  I find it hard to believe that he'd be able to win Orleans, though, since Dardenne is much more moderate than Vitter.  If it was purely regional politics, then yes, Vitter might win Orleans.

Nungesser carried Orleans Parish and he was the more conservative candidate. These types of races are really regional.

[Bacon King]

Now on Kip Holden running for Lieutenant Governor: good luck with that because I seriously do NOT see it happening for obvious factors:
1. No African American has won executive statewide office in LA ever.
2. Racially-divisive politics
3. If Holden emerged as the only Democrat running for LG, white Conservative Democrats would bolt to the GOP candidates

Tell that to Thurbert Baker, an African American who won several landslide elections as Georgia's Attorney General, garnering a lot of support from conservative Democrats.  I think there is prejudice in the south but it's more complicated than just skin color.

Governor Zell Miller appointed Baker to the office in 1997, so when he ran in 1998 he was already listed as the incumbent- but still ran 5 points behind Secretary of State Cathy Cox and Lt. Governor Mark Taylor, both of whom got elected for the first time that year.

[Miles]

Elbert Guillory may run for Governor, but not during this next cycle.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Guillory will have to run for a down-ballot statewide office, that is an OPEN seat and he'll have to get backing from the powerful pols in Baton Rouge IF he seeks higher office.

[Miles]

At a town hall Thursday, David Vitter said he would support a government shutdown rather than funding Obamacare and equated its supporters to freeloaders:

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Yikes.

[windjammer]

At a town hall Thursday, David Vitter said he would support a government shutdown rather than funding Obamacare and equated its supporters to freeloaders:

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Yikes.

Edward's son is running, is there a chance?

[Indy Texas]

Now on Kip Holden running for Lieutenant Governor: good luck with that because I seriously do NOT see it happening for obvious factors:
1. No African American has won executive statewide office in LA ever.
2. Racially-divisive politics
3. If Holden emerged as the only Democrat running for LG, white Conservative Democrats would bolt to the GOP candidates

Tell that to Thurbert Baker, an African American who won several landslide elections as Georgia's Attorney General, garnering a lot of support from conservative Democrats.  I think there is prejudice in the south but it's more complicated than just skin color.

As for a possible Vitter-Dardenne runoff in 2015: there was a map posted earlier in this thread that said Vitter would win the areas Nungesser won in 2011.  I find it hard to believe that he'd be able to win Orleans, though, since Dardenne is much more moderate than Vitter.  If it was purely regional politics, then yes, Vitter might win Orleans.

Louisiana is not Georgia. Georgia has a major US city with a lot of non-native whites, and it has a black population that has a lot more money, education and influence than blacks in Louisiana have in their state. Louisiana is basically a Franco-Afro-Caribbean banana republic in the southern part of the state and New Orleans; in the northern part of the state it's a rural fiefdom for the very conservative families who own the lumber mills and the gas leases.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Anyone know if the LA Supreme Court judges are elected statewide or not ?

I know here in Texas, we've had several people of color elected to statewide office
1. Ted Cruz (R)-US Senator

2. Wallace Jefferson (R)-TX Supreme Court Chief Justice (appointed to the TX SC in 2001 and elected in 2002 and re-elected in 2006 and 2008)

3. Dale Wainwright (R) elected to TX Supreme Court, Place 7 in 2002 and re-elected in 2008, but resigned mid-term last year.

4. Michael Williams (R) appointed to the TX Railroad Commission by then-Gov. Bush upon the resignation of Carole Keeton Strayhorn, who was elected Comptroller; Williams easily won special election of unexpired term in 2000 and re-elected in 2002 and 2008, resigned in spring of 2011 to seek unsuccessful bid for US House seat in 2012. Now serving as TX Education Commissioner.

5. Tony Garza (R) elected to the TX Railroad Commission in 1998, served until his resignation in 2003 to become U.S. Ambassador to Mexico.

6. Morris Overstreet (D) elected to the TX Court of Criminal Appeals in 1990 and re-elected to six-year term in 1992. First African American elected to statewide office with his election.

7. Dan Morales (D), elected TX State Attorney General in 1990 and re-elected in 1994, did not seek reelection in 1998 due to FBI investigating corruption allegations (which Morales went to prison for taking $$$ with associates in Big Tobacco incident).

8. David Medina (R), appointed to the TX Supreme Court, Place 4 by Governor Perry in 2004 and elected to full term in 2006, but lost reelection bid in GOP runoff in 2012.

9. Victor G. Carrillo (R), appointed to replace Garza on TX Railroad Commission by Governor Perry in 2003 and overwhelmingly elected to full six-year term in 2004, but lost reelection in landslide margin during the GOP primary in 2010.

10. Eva Guzman (R), appointed to the TX Supreme Court by Governor Perry in October 2009 and elected to full term in 2010.

11. Elsa Acala (R), appointed to TX Court of Criminal Appeals in 2011, and elected to six year term in 2012.

[Miles]

PPP has Mayor Landrieu leading both Vitter and Dardenne:

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[Miles]

I'm very interested in knowing who these people are:

[Joe Republic]

N.O. Dems who for whatever reason think Landrieu sucks as mayor? 

[Miles]

PPP finds Jindal to be the most unpopular GOP Governor in the county.

Three years ago, he was riding high at 58/34; thats now down to a painful 28/59.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Another Landrieu for office in LA, Governor I take it.

[Miles]

A post on another thread by our hackish friend krazen prompted me to do some research.

Even when she was leaving office amidst the hurricane aftermath, Governor Blanco's approval was 39/58. 'Still better than where Jindal is now.

[Miles]

The DOJ is suing Louisiana over Jindal's voucher program:

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[windjammer]

Jindal is destroying his own state in order to make him a tea party favorite in 2016. Disgusting

[TX Conservative Dem]

Both Mary and Mitch Landrieu have won 7 out of 8 statewide elections in between them (Mary as State Treasurer in 1987, 1991; United States Senator in 1996, 2002, 2008 & Mitch as Lieutenant Governor in 2003, 2007).

I would not be shocked if Mitch goes for the governorship, because he's the LA Dems' ONLY shot at taking back the Governor's Mansion after 8 years of Jindal.

[Miles]

This never even crossed my mind before, but Shreveport pollster Elliott Stonecipher has some interesting ideas about this race:

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[Miles]

Guillory will be hosting Allen West later this month.

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[Miles]

Yup.

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If this guy runs for something, he will win, for better or worse.

[windjammer]

Well, if him runs for governor, Landrieu would have to runn for senate in 2016 I guess?

[free my dawg]

Well, if him runs for governor, Landrieu would have to runn for senate in 2016 I guess?

He can't unless he gets a pardon from the president.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Landrieu running for US Senate in 2016 ?

He's going for the governorship either in 2015 or 2019.

Vitter may or may not run, who knows.

Jindal: his political career is all but over forever. Only way he gets relevant again, if the GOP wins the WH in 2016 and he gets a cabinet spot.