Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[Miles]

The competition is slightly better in the House - 22 of 105 seats have candidates from both parties.

Dark red - Unopposed D
Dark blue - Unopposed R
Purple - Unopposed I
Red - No R running
Blue - No D running
Green - Both major parties have candidates

[smoltchanov]

Thanks, Miles!

Yes, i noticed that too...  The run-off in November will be almost formality: probably no more then 5 Senate seats and about 10-12 in House... What about an ideological orientation of candidates (mainly Democrats, because you can never realistically expect more then "pragmatic conservative" from Republican candidates in Louisiana, and even that - rarely..)?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Thanks, Miles!

Yes, i noticed that too...  The run-off in November will be almost formality: probably no more then 5 Senate seats and about 10-12 in House... What about an ideological orientation of candidates (mainly Democrats, because you can never realistically expect more then "pragmatic conservative" from Republican candidates in Louisiana, and even that - rarely..)?

Republicans control the LA legislature...

[Miles]

Thanks, Miles!

Yes, i noticed that too...  The run-off in November will be almost formality: probably no more then 5 Senate seats and about 10-12 in House... What about an ideological orientation of candidates (mainly Democrats, because you can never realistically expect more then "pragmatic conservative" from Republican candidates in Louisiana, and even that - rarely..)?

Republicans control the LA legislature...

Okay- correct.

I think he's asking about races that have members of the same party but from different factions running against eachother. Yes, I'm putting together a few races to watch for those too.

[smoltchanov]

Thanks, Miles!

Yes, i noticed that too...  The run-off in November will be almost formality: probably no more then 5 Senate seats and about 10-12 in House... What about an ideological orientation of candidates (mainly Democrats, because you can never realistically expect more then "pragmatic conservative" from Republican candidates in Louisiana, and even that - rarely..)?

Republicans control the LA legislature...

I know that....

[smoltchanov]

Thanks, Miles!

Yes, i noticed that too...  The run-off in November will be almost formality: probably no more then 5 Senate seats and about 10-12 in House... What about an ideological orientation of candidates (mainly Democrats, because you can never realistically expect more then "pragmatic conservative" from Republican candidates in Louisiana, and even that - rarely..)?

Republicans control the LA legislature...

Okay- correct.

I think he's asking about races that have members of the same party but from different factions running against eachother. Yes, I'm putting together a few races to watch for those too.

Exactly)))

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Is that a common problem in American state legislatures? Seems ... very poor for state democracy.

[Miles]

^ Yeah, its not that uncommon. In NC last year, for example, 20/50 Senators were unopposed and 60/120 House members were (at least in the general election).

[gespb19]

Quick question on HD98 - why is Neil Abramson running unopposed? He has some favorable ratings from conservative groups (Louisiana Right to Life, NFIB, Louisiana Family Forum, etc). It looks like that district takes in some of the more liberal neighborhoods (Uptown, Carrollton, Audubon, etc) plus Tulane and Loyola. I would have thought there'd be a more progressive type in that district, although I may be reading too much into the ratings from those organizations.

[smoltchanov]

^ Don't know anything specific for this particular district, but, looking at filings data, i got an impression that a lot of possible challenges were "delayed" until 2019, when about 35-40% of Legislature will be term-limited. For example - Republicans left Jerry Gisclair and Mike Danahay unopposed in (approximately) R+33 and R+31 districts  (HD-54 and HD-33) (and if Danahay is a conservative (even more then few Republicans) Gisclair is a "centrist" (by Louisiana standards, not national one)). At the same time Democrats left Bryan Adams and Tom Willmott (both - "pragmatic conservatives") unopposed in HD-85 and HD-92, despite even Obama winning about 49 and more then 50% of vote there... May be Abramson case is among them too - he is term-limited in 2019, possibly - entrenched, and potential candidates simply decided to wait..

P.S. After looking at filing data i see only 3-4 Democratic House districts endangered HD-41 (almost sure flip), HD-32, HD-39, and (considerably less likely) may be HD-60, but even less -  Republican (may be - HD-103 and few other)

[MT Treasurer]

Sabato moves this race from Safe Republican to Likely Republican

[Miles]

The RGA is spending $1M in ads comparing Edwards to Obama. I never could have seen that coming.

[Miles]

The Times-Picayune, New Orleans' major paper, in something of a surprise, endorsed Vitter.

The Gambit, which is also a popular New Orleans paper, endorsed Dardenne.

[Ebsy]

The Times-Picayune, New Orleans' major paper, in something of a surprise, endorsed Vitter.

The Gambit, which is also a popular New Orleans paper, endorsed Dardenne.

The Times-Picayune Editorial Board endorsement is the most mystifying thing I have ever read. They basically give credit to Vitter for Landrieu's New Orleans recovery bill, say that he works with his opponents in Congress, and that we can trust him at his word. This from the man that solicited prostitutes in diapers.

[smoltchanov]

The Times-Picayune, New Orleans' major paper, in something of a surprise, endorsed Vitter.

The Gambit, which is also a popular New Orleans paper, endorsed Dardenne.

Surprise. I never considered this newspaper to be especially right-wing. And i can't imagine anyone, except right-wing, to support Vitter. Dardenne - yes, Angelle - may be, but Vitter?

[smoltchanov]

I checked legislator's voting records against Shor-McCarty database for 1993-2014 period looking for ideological orientation of candidates (many of whom were legislators at some moments of this period) (in fact - this is the only almost complete "ideology oriented" data base for state legislators, that i know). Edwards (who, frequently is characterized as "conservaDem" (especially on sites like DKE)) is, in fact, THE  most liberal of present day WHITE Democratic legislators of Louisiana with rating -0.25 ("somewhat left-of-center"), despite rather conservative record on social issues (100% rating from "ProLife Louisiana" for example). So, he seems to be more of the old school "southern populist" type (they almost always were considerably more liberal on economy then on social issues). Vitter has 0.746 (solid conservative, but far from being THE most extremist among Louisiana politicians), Dardenne -  0.721 (only slightly less conservative). Angelle, alas, was parish president, Lt. Governor, PSC member, but never - legislator (IMHO - his rating would be similar).

Among Lt. Governor candidates Holden has very liberal -0.725 (many black legislators are considerably less liberal then that), Young and Nungesser never served in legislature (one is current, another - former parish president), Guillory was rather conservative (0.187) Democrat before becoming even more conservative (0.623) Republican. For SoS Schedler is slightly more "moderate" then Republican  governor candidates (2 ratings for different years give him 0.691 and 0.494 correspondingly), while Tyson has no ratings.

For AG only Landry has ratings for his congressional (he never was a state legislator) service, and it's well-known, that he is VERY conservative. Donelon (Comm. of Insurance) has rather typical for Republican candidates 0.728, Kennedy (Treasurer) never served in Legislature AFAIK, but usually is listed among relatively "moderate" Republican candidates (by THEIR standards of course..). And, finally, "Mike" Strain (Comm. of Agriculture) belongs to roughly the same camp, scoring 0.585 during his legislative service...

Of course - these numbers can't give a complete picture of ideological views of statewide candidates, but at least - they give some food for thought...

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Sabato moves this race from Safe Republican to Likely Republican

Even with the recent polling that suggests Edwards could make the runoff?

Sabato's predictions and analysis are garbage.

[The Other Castro]

Sabato moves this race from Safe Republican to Likely Republican

Even with the recent polling that suggests Edwards could make the runoff?

Sabato's predictions and analysis are garbage.

Correct, this should be a toss-up.

[ElectionsGuy]

Sabato moves this race from Safe Republican to Likely Republican

Even with the recent polling that suggests Edwards could make the runoff?

Sabato's predictions and analysis are garbage.

You guys say this every damn year...

[Bojack Horseman]

If they want to run ads comparing Edwards to Obama, then why isn't the DNC running ads screaming from the hilltops that David Vitter is a John with a diaper fetish who told a hooker he knocked up to have an abortion?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

If they want to run ads comparing Edwards to Obama, then why isn't the DNC running ads screaming from the hilltops that David Vitter is a John with a diaper fetish who told a hooker he knocked up to have an abortion?

Because they want to face him in the runoff.

[DINGO Joe]

If they want to run ads comparing Edwards to Obama, then why isn't the DNC running ads screaming from the hilltops that David Vitter is a John with a diaper fetish who told a hooker he knocked up to have an abortion?

Oh, some random PAC has been running ads about Vitter's diaper fetish, not necessarily the Dems though.  Vitter has plenty of enemies.

[Miles]

RRH has a good preview of the elections tomorrow...I haven't really had time to put together anything substantive about the downballot races, so I'll defer to them!

Statewide races.
Legislative races.

[JMT]

With each day that passes it is looking more likely that Democrats may end up with a surprising win here with John Bel Edwards. I bet Mitch Landrieu wishes he ran for governor now...

[Miles]

^ I actually think that Democrats were better off running a fresh face. Landrieu has become somewhat less popular as mayor. Vitter would still be unpopular and it would probably still be close, but I think Landrieu would be doing worse.