Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[Maxwell]

Just throwing this out there, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if Rob Maness runs for something this year, given 1) the state's late (September) filing deadline and 2) it looks like he's keeping his events calender pretty busy. He's spoken at several GOP/right-leaning venues since the election last year.

Unlike Chris McDaniel, Maness has largely made peace with the party apparatus after losing as an insurgent; he'd be a better candidate because of that.

I saw how he endorsed Cassidy almost immediately. Maness seemed to definitely be jockeying for a future role. Do you think he has a good shot?

[Miles]

^ I think he could. The area he's from, St. Tammany Parish, is heavily GOP, so there could be a number of possibilities at the legislative level. Actually, the legislator for the district he lives in is term limited this cycle, (HD-89 in Mandeville).

If he wants to run statewide, the best option would be Treasurer, IMO. In the AG race, Jeff Landry is challenging Buddy Caldwell from the right; Maness could do the same with John Kennedy. He'd lose some of the good will he's built up with the party, but it could be a race.

[Miles]

Bush 41 is endorsing Vitter. Wow, I thought he'd be more of Dardenne's type of Republican.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[windjammer]

RIP Louisiana

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I have hope for this seat, yet. If Mitch Landrieu decides to run it will be interesting.

[136or142]

From politics1.com
LA - LT GOV (Triumph): Kip Holden (D) 33%, Billy Nungesser (R) 23%, John Young (R) 20%, Elbert Guillory (R) 2%.

LA GOV (Triumph): US Sen David Vitter (R) 35%, House Min Ldr John Bel Edwards (D) 33%, Lt Gov Jay Dardenne (R) 15%, Scott Angelle (R) 7%.

Never heard of Triumph polling firm.  It's not certain supporters of the moderate Republicans Jay Dardenne and Scott Angelle would support the far right David Vitter.  Maybe John Bel Edwards has a shot at this.

[Miles]

^ The name kind of rings a bell to me, but the numbers look believable enough.

[Maxwell]

^ The name kind of rings a bell to me, but the numbers look believable enough.

Guillory at 2? wow

[Miles]

^ His campaign is deep in the red, last I checked.

I'm not really sure if he still wants to run. His options are 1) run statewide against better established Republicans or 2) run for reelection in his 60% Obama Senate seat (he was last elected as a Dem). Neither are very good choices.

For all the noise he tried to make last cycle, I think his 15 minutes of fame are over.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

A PPP poll last September found Vitter leading Edwards 50-32 in a head to head. Granted, it's a fairly old poll, but it still makes it clear that Edwards winning would be a BIG upset.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_LA_9301205.pdf

Vitter leads Mitch Landrieu 47-38 in the same poll, so Landrieu's obviously the better dem option. The question is if he actually wants to run. The filing deadline is in September, so he's got plenty of time to enter.

[136or142]

The poll
http://blogs.theadvocate.com/politicsblog/2015/03/09/new-louisiana-poll-candidates-dont-have-enough-early-support-to-avoid-runoff/

The poll was conducted by well-connected, Mississippi-based Republican campaign consultant Triumph Campaigns.

Triumph owner Justin Brasell told The Advocate that the poll “was conducted independently of any of the campaigns.” In response to a follow-up question from The Advocate Brasell said the poll also wasn’t paid for by any of the super PACs supporting various candidates in the race.


The state-wide survey included 1,655 likely voters and was conducted March 5. The margin of error is +/- 2.4 percent.

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal’s disapproval rating has hit 63 percent among respondents in this poll. About 27 percent of those surveyed approve of Jindal’s job performance, while another 10 percent said they were undecided.

 In the attorney general’s race, incumbent Republican Buddy Caldwell and Jacques Roy, the Democratic mayor of Alexandria, each pulled 30 percent in the poll. Former Congressman Jeff Landry, a Republican, got about 20 percent, while 21 percent of respondents remain undecided in the match-up.

[Miles]

Oh my:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Miles]

A New Orleans area Democrat is running for Governor, but not the one you're expecting:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Well, maybe it was sort of expected, as this guy is something of a perennial candidate.

[Miles]

The state Democratic party endorsed John Bel Edwards today; that should pretty much end the Landrieu chatter.

It also sounds like (Mary) Landrieu has also signed off on Edwards:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[smoltchanov]

Edwards will most likely get into runoff, but what will he do after that? GE chances are minimal...

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Edwards will most likely get into runoff, but what will he do after that? GE chances are minimal...

Edwards's hope, presumably, is that Vitter, Dardenne, and Angelle attack each other so much that whichever one of them makes the runoff is so damaged that Edwards actually has a shot. But that's not terribly likely.

Com'on, Mitch Landrieu, run! You know you want to....

[solarstorm]

The state Democratic party endorsed John Bel Edwards today; that should pretty much end the Landrieu chatter.

It also sounds like (Mary) Landrieu has also signed off on Edwards:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Miles]

Boustany is endorsing Vitter.

[smoltchanov]

Boustany is endorsing Vitter.

Somewhat strange. It always seemed to me that Boustany belonged to more moderate and pragmatic wing of the party. Can't say these words about Vitter.

[retromike22]

Mitch Landrieu officially not running.

http://m.apnews.com/ap/db_268748/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=6PqNJO0j

Miles for Governor!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Mitch Landrieu officially not running.

http://m.apnews.com/ap/db_268748/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=6PqNJO0j

Miles for Governor!

drat!

Does anyone think Edwards even has a chance in a runoff with Vitter or Dardenne? If so, why?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Landrieus were good to the people of La; when it came to Katrina.

Unlike my fellow Dems; Keystone should have been a bargining chip; not an affirmative no. Cost Landrieu her senate seat; and may have been the difference in Mitch not running.

I hope he endorses Bel Edwards; it Leans GOP at the present time.  But, I am willing to give Bel Edwards some time to mount a serious campaign; with Mitch endorsement.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

OC: Even if the senate had passed Keystone and Obama had signed it before 11/4/2014, Landrieu still would have lost. Her opponent could have claimed some credit for it, being an active advocate for it in the house and all, and it's not as if Keystone was the number one issue on LA voter's minds - Nah, it was ObamaCare.

[Miles]

Despite his low numbers as of late, Vitter does still have a cash advantage. Here are the fundraising numbers out a few days ago:

Vitter: $838K raised, $4M CoH
Edwards: 842K/1.4M
Dardenne: 376K/1.6M
Angelle: 617/1M

Vitter and Angelle each have PACs which have $3M and $1M, respectively.

In the AG race, Caldwell and Landry are about even in terms of CoH:

Caldwell: $179K raised, $1.2M CoH
Landry: $277K, $1.4M

Landry loaned himself almost $400K, which inflates his total somewhat.

I don't think I posted this, but the State GOP formally endorsed Landry a few months ago. Its very rare that a state party endorses a challenger when it already has a scandal-free incumbent.

[Miles]

Of the 39 State Senate races, only 7 have both a Democrat and a Republican running:

Dark red/blue - Senator running unopposed
Red/blue- Only one major party is running candidates



New Orleans/Baton Rouge close up: