Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[Tender Branson]

Turnout was 38.5%. It was raining in most of the state during the day, but still below estimates.

More like 33%.

In Louisiana, only 84% of the voting-age citizen population is registered to vote.

That's 2.894.500 of 3.448.200 persons.

553.700 who are 18+ and citizens are not registered to vote for some reason. A good 100.000 of them are in prison or on parole and therefore cannot vote.

If we adjust these figures, actual turnout comes in at only ~33%.

[smoltchanov]

Some additional observations:

1. Democratic caucus gradully becomes more and more black, both because some white Democrats lose to Republicans (Ortego), are term-limited  and replacement happens to be Republican (Guillory, HD-41) or because white incumbents run for something and are replaced by black Democrats (Arnold, HD-102). So far process is relatively slow and in the next legislature there willl be between 15 and 18 (most likely, IMHO, 17) white Democrats in House, and, most likely, 4 in Senate. But after 2019 white Democrats risk near extinction: 13 of them in House and 2 in Senate are term-limited, and many of these districts are either strongly Republican on high level (especially - Presidential) (like SD-28, HD-33, HD-54 and other, mostly - in Acadiana and around it)  or, on the contrary, are majority-black (SD-34, HD-21, HD-83, and their like). There is a high probability that Louisiana's white Democrats will share the fate of their Alabama's brethern (in Alabama there is only 1 white Democratic state Senator and about 6 House members now) after 2019. Polarization begins to take an extreme form here...

2. Edwards has essentially 2 problems that can prevent his election: Obama and low turnout (especially in run-off)... Vitter - exactly 1: himself.

3. One of the biggest possible pluses for Democrats in 2019: No Obama on ballot or in the White House. He will be rather distant memory then...

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Some additional observations:

1. Democratic caucus gradully becomes more and more black, both because some white Democrats lose to Republicans (Ortego), are term-limited  and replacement happens to be Republican (Guillory, HD-41) or because white incumbents run for something and are replaced by black Democrats (Arnold, HD-102). So far process is relatively slow and in the next legislature there willl be between 15 and 18 (most likely, IMHO, 17) white Democrats in House, and, most likely, 4 in Senate. But after 2019 white Democrats risk near extinction: 13 of them in House and 2 in Senate are term-limited, and many of these districts are either strongly Republican on high level (especially - Presidential) (like SD-28, HD-33, HD-54 and other, mostly - in Acadiana and around it)  or, on the contrary, are majority-black (SD-34, HD-21, HD-83, and their like). There is a high probability that Louisiana's white Democrats will share the fate of their Alabama's brethern (in Alabama there is only 1 white Democratic state Senator and about 6 House members now) after 2019. Polarization begins to take an extreme form here...

2. Edwards has essentially 2 problems that can prevent his election: Obama and low turnout (especially in run-off)... Vitter - exactly 1: himself.

3. One of the biggest possible pluses for Democrats in 2019: No Obama on ballot or in the White House. He will be rather distant memory then...

First, I believe a Democrat won Guillory's seat.  And second, your analysis of the runoff is spot-on.  That's basically what Fox 8 said, too, BTW.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Wow, these were exactly the results Edwards needed. Vitter narrowly survived this round, but clearly took damage from the recent scandal. NEVER thought I'd say this, but... Lean DEM gain.

What "recent scandal"?

[Oldiesfreak1854]

How in the world did Edwards win Livingston parish?

The fact that there were three strong Republican candidates split the vote, I'm guessing.

[smoltchanov]

First, I believe a Democrat won Guillory's seat.  

Different Guillory (HD-41, not SD-24)

[Miles]

Wow, these were exactly the results Edwards needed. Vitter narrowly survived this round, but clearly took damage from the recent scandal. NEVER thought I'd say this, but... Lean DEM gain.

What "recent scandal"?

This one, which is really just an outgrowth of a previous scandal. Almost too many to keep track of...

[Miles]

Interestingly enough, this kinda plays into Vitter's narrative, but Edwards and Obama 2008 each got exactly 39.9%.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Yay! First major election in a year.

AOSHQDD Results here: http://dd.aoshq.com/results/louisiana-governor/

Polls closing in 13 minutes. Go Dardenne!

I love that map. Cartograms are so much more useful than regular county maps.

I find them confusing, and they distort the shape of the counties.

[Miles]

^ The idea was to weigh them for population. From what I've seen as a contributor, that how we're doing all our state maps at AOS going forward.

[Skye]

Nice maps. Keep up the good work Miles.

[Miles]

[Miles]

[RI]

Is there a particular reason the Dem did so awfully in the AG race?

[The Other Castro]

Is there a particular reason the Dem did so awfully in the AG race?

The voters could clearly see that she was full of baloney.

[Miles]

^ Haha. Baloney was the candidate endorsed by the state party. She didn't have any prior elective experience or much name rec, unlike the two Dems upballot. Caldwell was (is) also aggressively courting moderate/conservative Democrats. 

[Miles]

Dororthy Sue Hill's HD32 is one the most R-leaning seats nationally held by a Democrat (76/22 Romney). She was barely forced into a runoff but combined with the other Democrat for 63%.

[smoltchanov]

^ So, her main strength is in Allen Parish? But what surprised me even more - Republicans couldn't find a candidate against not so conservative Gisclair in about R+33 district.. As i already wrote - i expect a real bloodbath for Democrats in conservative districts in 2019, when  "old-timers" (those, first elected in 2007) will retire "en masse"...

[Miles]

^ Yep, she carried Allen Parish 56/27 and held Smith under 50% in Beauregard.

[Miles]

Dardenne's communications director endorses Edwards.

[RI]

What kind of breakdown will we see among Dardenne and Angelle supporters in the runoff? Edwards needs at least 30% or so to not vote for Vitter (either vote for him or stay home) to win.

[Tender Branson]

What kind of breakdown will we see among Dardenne and Angelle supporters in the runoff? Edwards needs at least 30% or so to not vote for Vitter (either vote for him or stay home) to win.

Edwards seems conservative enough to attract a good junk of these voters to win the runoff.

I would be surprised if Vitter comes anywhere near a tie in the runoff ...

[Miles]

^ Thats what I'm doing analysis to figure out.

[Tender Branson]

Cook Political Report has updated the status to "tossup":

http://cookpolitical.com/story/8961

[Miles]

Louisiana Sheriffs Association endorses Edwards.

I don't blame them for not wanting to be spied on by Vitter's people!