Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[Landslide Lyndon]

Hey Miles, has there been any reaction to the "prostitutes over patriots" ad?  

[smoltchanov]

Blacks made up 30% of early voters yesterday, the first day to vote early.

It was 26% in the first round early vote.

Good. Edwards really MAY win. Only MAY, as it's a Louisiana - almost "scorched earth" statewide for Democrats (at least - as long as Obama is president). But, so far, all stars aligned favorably for him....

[Miles]

Hey Miles, has there been any reaction to the "prostitutes over patriots" ad?  

Well, Vitter put out a statement from one of the veterans supporting him asking Edwards to pull the ad. Edwards countered with a letter signed by multiple veterans supporting the ad.

Considering the NAACP petitioned Vitter to another remove an ad earlier in the campaign, I guess this type of back and forth would be par for the course.

[morgieb]

People trying to compare this with Kentucky should have a look at Hood in Mississippi. He actually overperformed the one poll of that race (admittedly was on a lower ticket), and I think Louisiana is closer to Mississippi than Kentucky demographically.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

People trying to compare this with Kentucky should have a look at Hood in Mississippi. He actually overperformed the one poll of that race (admittedly was on a lower ticket), and I think Louisiana is closer to Mississippi than Kentucky demographically.

Hood was/is:

1. a longtime incumbent
2. in a lower-ticket race that no one was paying attention to

[DrScholl]

And the biggest reasons why you can't compare this race to Kentucky are Vitter being tainted by scandal, as well as Jindal being an outgoing disaster. Those conditions are why Edwards is in the driver's seat right now.

[Figueira]

I don't think you can compare this to Kentucky directly. It's just that Kentucky taught me (as someone who generally thinks Democrats are better than Republicans) to set my expectations low.

[Flake]

Can we have more John Bel Edwards running across the country instead of the boring Democrats that attack opponents in such a low energy way? Edwards is brutal and that's how the Democratic Party should be.

[smoltchanov]

Can we have more John Bel Edwards running across the country instead of the boring Democrats that attack opponents in such a low energy way? Edwards is brutal and that's how the Democratic Party should be.

That's probably true about any candidate of any party (including Republicans), doesn't it? The only problem with such approach is that in such case politics smoothly evolves into war... The real one...

[smoltchanov]

I don't think you can compare this to Kentucky directly. It's just that Kentucky taught me (as someone who generally thinks Democrats are better than Republicans) to set my expectations low.

To be realistic, Kentucky is probably lost for two generations now, but Democrats do have reason for medium-long run optimism about Louisiana and Mississippi.  They were among only 6 states to actually swing toward Obama in 2012, and three of the others can definitely (NJ,NY) or probably (MD) be explained by Hurricane Sandy.  Landrieu also held up much better than expected in the runoff last year.

Medium-long? Not sure. As long as voting in Louisiana and Misssissippi is so polarized by race whites will outvote Blacks and other minorities and elect extremely conservative Republicans almost exclusively. Long-term (30 years and more) - yes. Demographic changes are relatively slow...

[Holmes]

Can we have more John Bel Edwards running across the country instead of the boring Democrats that attack opponents in such a low energy way? Edwards is brutal and that's how the Democratic Party should be.

I think brighter days are ahead for Democrats in the south post-Obama, but keep your expectations low regardless.

[smoltchanov]

Can we have more John Bel Edwards running across the country instead of the boring Democrats that attack opponents in such a low energy way? Edwards is brutal and that's how the Democratic Party should be.

I think brighter days are ahead for Democrats in the south post-Obama, but keep your expectations low regardless.

+1. Obama was a catalyzer of Southern whites's discontent with Democratic party and absolute symbol of everything that vast majority of them viscerally hate. Without him (and another liberal urban elitist Black Democrat as President) the situation may improve for Democrats there. But only "somewhat". For genuine improvement state parties must become more independent and more different from national one (say, in Vermont, state party may be even more liberal then national, but in Deep South to have even chances for BIG wins state parties must be substantially more conservative then national one, look, for example on position of most Louisiana's Democrats (including JBE) on abortions and "gay marriage"). As it was, say 50 years ago, when Mississipi Democratic party was very different from New York Democratic party. Now they are almost identical in their platform. No, of course i don't say that Mississippi's Democrats must call for return of "white rule", as some of them did 50 years ago, but, obviously, general Mississippi's (or Louisiana's) mentality (and positions of vast majority of voters) is substantially different and much more conservative then New York's and California's...

P.S. The same is, obviosly, true, for Republicans. Vermont Republican party MUST be much more liberal then Oklahoma's if it wants to win elections "en masse"...

P.S. 2 It's impossible to impose your "desired behavoir" on people besides pure judicial norms. You may call them whatever you want ("redneck bubba's", for example), but you can't force them to vote the way you desire. So, you must go a very long and tedious way of adapting to their mores first, and, may be, gradually influence and slowly change them with time. Again, the Deep South 50 (may be - 60) years ago is a good example: probably, no less then 80% (may be even 90%) of whites there supported some sort of segregation then. But, when it became clear, that following such policy to the limits will lead to closed schools and universities and National Guard on city streets - situation began to change: support for rabid segragationists began (slowly) wane, and adaptation to new realities (often - grudging) slowly began. Though it had political consequences in many white's implicitly deciding "but i can do one thing - leave party, that imposed all that on me, and go to different one"....

[Bojack Horseman]

This is the kind of attack ad that Democrats everywhere should be running:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=LZQVCFVVVE0

[Miles]

Sabato: Lean R -> Tossup.

[smoltchanov]

Sabato: Lean R -> Tossup.

Finally. About where it stands now, IMHO.. Much better personal qualities of JBE and split in Republican party against general state inclinations and ..... Obama.

[Miles]

Vitter is reportedly running an ad where he admits to "failing" his family. I can't find the actual ad, though.

[DrScholl]

I'm surprised he isn't denying it as a witchhunt manufactured by Obama and Democrats.

[Miles]

^ He's trying to get sympathy with this, no doubt.

[Miles]

Vitter's ad. Not much as far as an 'apology.'

[DrScholl]

Isn't that just drawing more attention to a major negative? It could do more harm than good.

[The Other Castro]

Vitter's ad. Not much as far as an 'apology.'

He has such a punchable face/voice combination.

[kansasdemocrat]

Vitter's ad. Not much as far as an 'apology.'

That ad is going to play very well. RIP prostitution story

[DrScholl]

Vitter's ad. Not much as far as an 'apology.'

That ad is going to play very well. RIP prostitution story

Trolling is transparent.

[Maxwell]

He looks and talks like a cartoon character.

God I hope this doesn't work, but I know in the South it seems like if you say that God forgives you for your previous misdeeds you will win an election.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

This is kind of late in the game to ask this, but is John Bel Edwards' first name "John Bel," or is his last name "Bel Edwards?" Or is "Bel" his middle name?