Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[Tender Branson]

Early voting numbers could be slightly higher than in the runoff.

250.000 vs. 235.000 or something, but there are still 2 days to vote early so we'll know the final figures on Sunday/Monday.

Blacks make up 28% of the early vote so far vs. 27% in the jungle early vote.

[Miles]

Cook moves it to Lean D.

[The Other Castro]

Cook moves it to Lean D.

It's amazing how recently they had this as Safe R. The only other race I can think of that was downgraded that quickly and ended up being lost by the Republicans is Alaska Gov last year.

[BigSkyBob]

In one of the more awkward endorsement ads I've seen, Duck Dynasty's Willie Robertson endorses Vitter.

That's a big endorsement for Vitter.

[Flake]

In one of the more awkward endorsement ads I've seen, Duck Dynasty's Willie Robertson endorses Vitter.

That's a big endorsement for Vitter.

¿Pór qué?

[smoltchanov]

In one of the more awkward endorsement ads I've seen, Duck Dynasty's Willie Robertson endorses Vitter.

That's a big endorsement for Vitter.

¿Pór qué?

Possibly - because no one else (except LABI) wanted to endorse him...

[Miles]

In one of the more awkward endorsement ads I've seen, Duck Dynasty's Willie Robertson endorses Vitter.

That's a big endorsement for Vitter.

¿Pór qué?

Possibly - because no one else (except LABI) wanted to endorse him...

Considering the last candidate Duck Dynasty endorsed, Zach Dasher, didn't even make the runoff in his race, yeah, its quite a big endorsement!

[Miles]

After going nuclear on Vitter last week, it looks like Edwards is closing out the campaign with a positive spot featuring veterans.

[Miles]

Kennedy gave an interview where he tried to pressure Angelle into endorsing Vitter:

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Angelle's folks hit back and pwned Kennedy:

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[Maxwell]

It looks like the primary for Senate is already heating up!

[Njall]

Don't think this was posted here yet: The Louisiana State Troopers' Assocation has endorsed Edwards

[Talleyrand]

Edwards skipped a social values forum organized by the the Lousiana's Family Forum to host a meet-and-greet at a raunchy club. So much for "Louisiana Family Values".

This just goes to show the hypocrisy that Vitter has had to deal with in this race. This should help his campaign though, and I suspect he'll make it over the finish line by a comfortable margin in the end.

http://www.redstate.com/2015/11/13/john-bel-edwards-skipped-a-family-forum-for-this/

[Talleyrand]

Edwards skipped a social values forum organized by the the Lousiana's Family Forum to host a meet-and-greet at a raunchy club. So much for "Louisiana Family Values".

This just goes to show the hypocrisy that Vitter has had to deal with in this race. This should help his campaign though, and I suspect he'll make it over the finish line by a comfortable margin in the end.

http://www.redstate.com/2015/11/13/john-bel-edwards-skipped-a-family-forum-for-this/

Yeah, not to mention that he's not even pro-life.

How terrible!!! Hopefully the good people of Louisiana have the sense to elect their champion, Senator David Vitter, instead of this horrifying individual.

[DrScholl]

How on earth was Vitter able to go to that forum without the whole venue bursting into flames? That skanky loser really has no place trying to preach family values. He's going to lose and his supporters know it.

[Miles]

^ The group is affiliated with Tony Perkins and has been called an anti-gay hate group.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Edwards skipped a social values forum organized by the the Lousiana's Family Forum to host a meet-and-greet at a raunchy club. So much for "Louisiana Family Values".

This just goes to show the hypocrisy that Vitter has had to deal with in this race. This should help his campaign though, and I suspect he'll make it over the finish line by a comfortable margin in the end.

http://www.redstate.com/2015/11/13/john-bel-edwards-skipped-a-family-forum-for-this/

Yeah, not to mention that he's not even pro-life.

How terrible!!! Hopefully the good people of Louisiana have the sense to elect their champion, Senator David Vitter, instead of this horrifying individual.

I will be very to happy when you're sent to the forum graveyard to meet krazey and the other unfunny trolls that once littered this forum with posts similar to yours.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Vitter does win/rig (and yes, the latter is possible) the election, a bunch of atlas users will likely go into years of utter depression.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

If Vitter does win/rig (and yes, the latter is possible) the election, a bunch of atlas users will likely go into years of utter depression.

More pertinently the polling industry would be so discredited we would close down much of the polling boards and a lot of Atlas people would have more free time.

[BigSkyBob]

If Vitter does win/rig (and yes, the latter is possible) the election, a bunch of atlas users will likely go into years of utter depression.

More pertinently the polling industry would be so discredited we would close down much of the polling boards and a lot of Atlas people would have more free time.

I don't think that necessarily follows. Edwards could simply see his support evaporate, and, the trends of the polls could indicate such movement.

[Miles]

If Vitter does win/rig (and yes, the latter is possible) the election, a bunch of atlas users will likely go into years of utter depression.

More pertinently the polling industry would be so discredited we would close down much of the polling boards and a lot of Atlas people would have more free time.

Yeah, if Vitter wins, this would certainly be one of the biggest polling failures.

[/]

Would they actually do an investigation into it?

[ElectionsGuy]

I tried to imagine a county map for this and this is what I came up with



Then I realized, this is very similar to Landrieu's 52-46 win in 2008. It looks like Louisiana is reverting back to when a sizable number of whites voted Democratic (30-40%). I tried to work out a reasonable scenario:

Whites (65%): 65% Vitter, 35% Edwards
Blacks (30%): 95% Edwards, 5% Vitter
Other (5%): 65% Edwards, 35% Vitter

Equates to 54.5% Edwards, 45.5% Vitter. Edwards needs just 28% of the white vote to win, more if black turnout isn't as good.

[Miles]

^ Good map, given the margin. I don't think Edwards would carry Ouachita Parish, though. That's the stompin' grounds of the Duck Dnyasty folks and the area around Monroe is super polarized (even by LA standards).

[Zioneer]

In one of the more awkward endorsement ads I've seen, Duck Dynasty's Willie Robertson endorses Vitter.

Haha, how can Vitter make being an utter scumbag look so lame?

[windjammer]

I'm still not believing Edwards is going to win, sorry.