Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[Tender Branson]

The final early-vote numbers:

Runoff: 257.000 (Blacks: 30%)
Jungle: 235.000 (Blacks: 27%)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The final early-vote numbers:

Runoff: 257.000 (Blacks: 30%)
Jungle: 235.000 (Blacks: 27%)

I certainly wouldn't be happy if I were Vitter with those numbers.

[Miles]

I'll be doing a more detailed post on AOS looking at early votes, but John Couvillion (a top-notch state analyst) put this out earlier, which hits on a lot of the main points.

[DINGO Joe]

The final early-vote numbers:

Runoff: 257.000 (Blacks: 30%)
Jungle: 235.000 (Blacks: 27%)

Actually not quite final as absentee can still arrive until election day, probably about 10,000 more absentee will come in.

[IceSpear]

^ From what I'm getting from my friends working on the campaign, think it was more a reaction to the Kentucky result than anything else. The Edwards team knows that they can't be comfortable unless they did everything possible to make sure Vitter was (electorally) as dead as possible - the Kentucky polling collapse affirmed that.

Vitter wasn't really pressed much (no pun intended) on the scandal in 2010. When it came up, it was usually more of a side note. As the Democrats are trying to make this a referendum on Vitter, looks like they're trying to get more mileage out of Vitter's personal issues this time.

I do remember Melancon bringing it up near the end of the campaign, but I guess doing it so close to the end just made it look like desperation. Why do you think Dems gave him a pass for it in 2010?

[Türkisblau]

Has this been posted here yet? Rick Santorum and Ted Cruz do robocalls for Vitter.

Cruz's:

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Santorum's:

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[mds32]

Edwards (D) 56%
Jerk (R) 44%

[Talleyrand]

Very effective robocalls- the second one is particularly powerful.

In addition, Louisiana's biggest newspaper, the New Orleans Times Picayune, has endorsed Vitter.

http://www.nola.com/elections/index.ssf/2015/11/david_vitter_endorsement.html

[DINGO Joe]

Very effective robocalls- the second one is particularly powerful.

In addition, Louisiana's biggest newspaper, the New Orleans Times Picayune, has endorsed Vitter.

http://www.nola.com/elections/index.ssf/2015/11/david_vitter_endorsement.html

Actually, the T-P is now the second largest being passed by the Advocate late last year.  Politics aside, the T-P is owned by an out-of-state company that has had an endless series of layoffs and is even moving the printing of the paper to Mobile, Al.  With the Saints playing so poorly, readership may collapse to nothing.

[smoltchanov]

Very effective robocalls- the second one is particularly powerful.

In addition, Louisiana's biggest newspaper, the New Orleans Times Picayune, has endorsed Vitter.

http://www.nola.com/elections/index.ssf/2015/11/david_vitter_endorsement.html

I hope i will be able to remind you some of your words late Saturday....)))

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Full list of runoffs:

* = R vs. R contest
^ = D vs. D contest

Attorney General*
BESE Board - Districts 4* and 6*
Governor
Lt. Governor
State House - Districts 29^, 32, 34^, 40^, 45*, 51*, 53*, 63^, 66*, 69*, 72^, 99^, 100^, 103
State Senate - Districts 7^, 12, 36*, 38

Interesting that out of 23 total runoffs, all but 6 are among two members of the same party.

[smoltchanov]

So, in legislative elections there are only 4 races between Democrat and Republican. My forecast:

SD-12 - Mizell (R) (almost won in 2011)
SD-38 - Burford (R) (though Milkovich may have some  remote chances, being very social conservative and relatively well-known after 2 previous campaigns for House)

HD-32 - Hill (D) (by very narrow margin, because 3rd place Democrat seems to be a Republican plant, and because of  sheriff's election in Beauregard parish, which must drive turnout there...)
HD-103 - Garofalo (R) (though will root for Hunnicut (D), but district has Republican lean, Garofalo is an incumbent and has about 16% advantage after 1st round)

One more interesting duel is "a battle of 2 Carters" in JBE's HD-72, but much more experienced (and seems to be - substantially more popular) former state representative from this district "Robby" Carter (43% in first round, politically - centrist) must prevail over substantially more conservative, younger and less experienced Hunter Carter (20%)

[DINGO Joe]

Weather should be nice across the state for election day.  Saturday is the first day of deer season that you can use your blinds, so while early turnout in the rural parishes looked pretty bad, that factoid makes it look awful.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Is anyone watching the Vitter-Edwards debate?
 

[Maxwell]

I'll try to catch some clips at a later point. God I hope this whole refugee thing doesn't tip it to Vitter.

[Talleyrand]

Everything is going right for Vitter in the final weeks. He's surging among whites, his ads have worked while Edwards' have backfired, and he's being helped immensely by the Syrian refugee crisis. I look forward to his decisive victory this weekend!!!

[Landslide Lyndon]

Everything is going right for Vitter in the final weeks. He's surging among whites, his ads have worked while Edwards' have backfired, and he's being helped immensely by the Syrian refugee crisis. I look forward to his decisive victory this weekend!!!

Go make some love to yourself troll.

[DrScholl]

Everything is going right for Vitter in the final weeks. He's surging among whites, his ads have worked while Edwards' have backfired, and he's being helped immensely by the Syrian refugee crisis. I look forward to his decisive victory this weekend!!!

You do know that Vitter can't offer you any free prostitution passes, don't you?

[Zioneer]

Everything is going right for Vitter in the final weeks. He's surging among whites, his ads have worked while Edwards' have backfired, and he's being helped immensely by the Syrian refugee crisis. I look forward to his decisive victory this weekend!!!

It's going to be so nice when that slimy, morally bankrupt scumbag of a candidate loses.

[DrScholl]

Why would the refugee thing have anything to do with the governor's race? Vitter is just been desperate. That nasty trick is going to lose and he knows it.

[/]

Pessimistic Parish Prediction:

[Miles]

^ Unless turnout is worse than the primary and only a few rich people Uptown vote, Vitter would never carry Orleans Parish.

[/]

^ Unless turnout is worse than the primary and only a few rich people Uptown vote, Vitter would never carry Orleans Parish.

Atlas colors (read the title)

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Okay if Louisiana votes for that absolute scumbag Vitter over the man of true integrity and honesty John Bel Edwards because OOGILY BOOGILY BROWN PEOPLE then they no longer deserve the rights and privileges of this great Union and should be ejected immediately tbh. But I do believe that at least a slim majority of Louisianans will see through Vitter's slimy and desperate tactics and make the right choice (though the South hasn't given me much faith in that as of late...).

[DINGO Joe]

Is anyone watching the Vitter-Edwards debate?
 

Not in Louisiana, the Saints chaos is the dominate story.