Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[Bacon King]

Edwards gets endorsements from almost 30 Jefferson Parish officials, from both parties. This is Vitter's home parish.

PS: when is election day?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Edwards gets endorsements from almost 30 Jefferson Parish officials, from both parties. This is Vitter's home parish.

PS: when is election day?

Saturday

[Ebsy]

I think most of us can agree that JBE is the most high energy Democratic candidate for governor that we have seen in a long time.

[Miles]

This is an interesting positive ad run on behalf of Edwards. It never mentions his party, and you'd think he'd be a Republican just from watching it.

Reminds me of an ad that Mike McIntyre ran in 2012.

[Miles]

Sabato moves it to Leans D.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Whether Vitter still has a chance depends on which set of polls have a better grasp of the electorate. If the polls showing Edwards up 15 to 20 points have the better grasp, then Vitter is completely, completely hopeless. However, if the polls showing Edwards up by 6 to 8 have the better grasp, then it is possible that Vitter could sweep the undecideds and eek out a narrow victory.

One thing is clear though - if Vitter does win, with all that has happened, there is no more hope for Democrats in LA, and they have no right to make any serious attempt at the senate seat up next year.

My original outlook of Vitter ending up running for reelection to the Senate was that he would be completely safe. Now, though, he's so damaged that I'm not completely sure. If Vitter loses narrowly, he can definitely gloss the whole thing over and win reelection with ease. But if Edwards ends up with 54, 55, 56 percent of the vote (or even more) on Saturday, all bets are off. Someone might actually challenge Vitter in the primary, and Democrats may be able to convince Mitch Landrieu or Cedric Richmond to run.

[The Other Castro]

If Vitter loses and runs for reelection, LA Republicans would be stupid not to primary him. With Mitch Landrieu as a potential Dem candidate, the two of them in a runoff would be very competitive.

[Miles]

If Vitter loses and runs for reelection, LA Republicans would be stupid not to primary him.

Yeah, especially considering that Vitter has flushed all his $ on this race and there are a bevy of better-funded, less damaged Republicans who want his seat.

[Adam Griffin]

If Vitter loses and runs for reelection, LA Republicans would be stupid not to primary him. With Mitch Landrieu as a potential Dem candidate, the two of them in a runoff would be very competitive.

Primarying someone in a top 2 state can be a dangerous thing indeed.  Might be a good idea for Dems to recruit Cedric or Mitch plus a rural Dem legislator.  If Vitter, Angelle and Dardenne all run again, they could end up with a D vs. D runoff.

I think ideally, you'd want it to be 2 white Democrats, if only because 60-65% of LA's presidential year primary electorate is going to be African-American. You'd very likely end up with Richmond and a R winning the top two seats. We of course don't want to pretend that a black man can win a statewide federal contest in LA...

[smoltchanov]

If Vitter loses and runs for reelection, LA Republicans would be stupid not to primary him. With Mitch Landrieu as a potential Dem candidate, the two of them in a runoff would be very competitive.

Primarying someone in a top 2 state can be a dangerous thing indeed.  Might be a good idea for Dems to recruit Cedric or Mitch plus a rural Dem legislator.  If Vitter, Angelle and Dardenne all run again, they could end up with a D vs. D runoff.

I think ideally, you'd want it to be 2 white Democrats, if only because 60-65% of LA's presidential year primary electorate is going to be African-American. You'd very likely end up with Richmond and a R winning the top two seats. We of course don't want to pretend that a black man can win a statewide federal contest in LA...

No, obviously he can't...

[ElectionsGuy]

Sabato moves it to Leans D.

Appropriate.

[Skye]

This thing is in two days. Final thoughts?

Mine: Edwards wins narrowly, less than 5% margin.

[Talleyrand]

This thing is in two days. Final thoughts?

Vitter creams Edwards by 5 to 8 points.

[Bojack Horseman]

This thing is in two days. Final thoughts?

Mine: Edwards wins narrowly, less than 5% margin.

I'm more nervous about your typical swing voters in Louisiana who know about Vitter's past and will just vote for him anyway because Obama. Virginia is much more favorable to Democrats compared to Louisiana, and yet McAuliffe nearly blew a 12-point polling lead because independents broke for Cooch-not-that-kind-of-cooch simply because of Obama and the whole "vote against the president's party at all times" phenomenon.

[Skye]

This thing is in two days. Final thoughts?

Vitter creams Edwards by 5 to 8 points.

Username checks out.

This thing is in two days. Final thoughts?

Mine: Edwards wins narrowly, less than 5% margin.

I'm more nervous about your typical swing voters in Louisiana who know about Vitter's past and will just vote for him anyway because Obama. Virginia is much more favorable to Democrats compared to Louisiana, and yet McAuliffe nearly blew a 12-point polling lead because independents broke for Cooch-not-that-kind-of-cooch simply because of Obama and the whole "vote against the president's party at all times" phenomenon.

The difference is that McAuliffe wasn't above 50% in most polls, and there was an independent candidate. I'm well aware the undecideds are probably going to break heavily towards Vitter, I just don't think there aren't enough undecideds at all to make him win now.

[windjammer]

My final prediction, Vitter wins by 5.

[The Other Castro]

If Vitter wins, this would probably be the biggest polling failure of the last decade at least.

[Vega]

I honestly don't know what Edward's believe in position wise. I have a suspicion he isn't the Conservadem he's trying to be, but that might not shine through.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I honestly don't know what Edward's believe in position wise. I have a suspicion he isn't the Conservadem he's trying to be, but that might not shine through.

This might be a serious concern if he was running for Governor of North Carolina, but in Louisiana he won't have a choice - it's either stay a conservadem or spend four years watching exactly 0% of your proposals get through the legislature.

[The Other Castro]

I honestly don't know what Edward's believe in position wise. I have a suspicion he isn't the Conservadem he's trying to be, but that might not shine through.

This might be a serious concern if he was running for Governor of North Carolina, but in Louisiana he won't have a choice - it's either stay a conservadem or spend four years watching exactly 0% of your proposals get through the legislature.

You either die a moderate hero, or serve long enough to see yourself become the villain.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

I'm thinking Edwards will win, but polling is so inaccurate these days that you really can't tell for sure.

I don't know much about the election since I don't live in Louisiana. Would a relatively conservative Republican such as myself who dislikes leftists but also dislikes criminal politicians vote Edwards or Vitter? It honestly sounds like I'd end up supporting Edwards, but I don't know enough about it to be sure.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

This is Saturday correct?

[Miles]

General Russel Honore', who was considering running for Governor (but obviously decided not to) endorsed Edwards. Honore' is known for major role in reigning in the chaos in New Orleans directly following Katrina - he's since been a vocal advocate for coastal restoration.

This is Saturday correct?

Yep!

[RINO Tom]

This thing is in two days. Final thoughts?

Vitter creams Edwards by 5 to 8 points.

So what's the "Texas Democrat" part of your username?  It can't possibly mean you identify as a socially conservative Southern Democrat because you'd probably, you know, be supporting the socially conservative Democrat in the race...

[Talleyrand]

This thing is in two days. Final thoughts?

Vitter creams Edwards by 5 to 8 points.

So what's the "Texas Democrat" part of your username?  It can't possibly mean you identify as a socially conservative Southern Democrat because you'd probably, you know, be supporting the socially conservative Democrat in the race...

My friend, I am no longer a Democrat, having quit the party 2 years ago. Even if I did identify as one, there's no way I'd back an Obama-coddling liar like John Edwards, who is 100% pro-choice. David Vitter has a proven record of fighting tax-and-spend Washington establishment dinosaurs and getting real, tangible results. Anyone with even only half a brain would back him over the awful iguana!