Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[Maxwell]

Going to stick with my 6 point Edwards win.

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Sabato moves it to Leans D.

Reminds me of what happened a few days before Kentucky...

Anyway, I'm maintaining my 55-45 Vitter win prediction.

[Xing]

Edwards won't govern as a liberal if he's elected, we can be pretty sure about that. I'm not sure he'll be the conservadem people claim that he is, though. I'm guessing he'll be more moderate than most Democratic governors, but still clearly a Democrat.

I'm predicting about a 4.5% victory for Edwards, but my concern is that the recent focus on national security will help Vitter, and might just be enough for him to sneak past Edwards. I'm still guessing Edwards will win, but I'm not extremely confident in that prediction.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

General Russel Honore', who was considering running for Governor (but obviously decided not to) endorsed Edwards. Honore' is known for major role in reigning in the chaos in New Orleans directly following Katrina - he's since been a vocal advocate for coastal restoration.

This is Saturday correct?

Yep!

I have to work so I am going to miss the fun.

Anyway, still backing Edwards here. I hope he wins.

[morgieb]

This thing is in two days. Final thoughts?

Vitter creams Edwards by 5 to 8 points.

So what's the "Texas Democrat" part of your username?  It can't possibly mean you identify as a socially conservative Southern Democrat because you'd probably, you know, be supporting the socially conservative Democrat in the race...

Talleyrand be trollin'.

Anyway I'm a bit nervous here now, but more because I worry Vitter's dog-whistling and a move towards national security is working rather than #analysis that Louisiana is deep red and Dems can't win those sort of states. Will still say Edwards wins....but I'm less confident now than I was a week ago.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The thing that's giving me confidence is that Edwards is still polling over 50% overall. Unlike Conway in KY who struggled to cross the mid-40s.

I'm predicting a ... 52-48% Edwards win.

[Ebsy]

"Prostitutes over Patriots"



http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/nov/19/john-bel-edwards/phone-records-voting-record-back-claims-attack-ad-/

[smoltchanov]

This thing is in two days. Final thoughts?

Vitter creams Edwards by 5 to 8 points.

So what's the "Texas Democrat" part of your username?  It can't possibly mean you identify as a socially conservative Southern Democrat because you'd probably, you know, be supporting the socially conservative Democrat in the race...

My friend, I am no longer a Democrat, having quit the party 2 years ago. Even if I did identify as one, there's no way I'd back an Obama-coddling liar like John Edwards, who is 100% pro-choice. David Vitter has a proven record of fighting tax-and-spend Washington establishment dinosaurs and getting real, tangible results. Anyone with even only half a brain would back him over the awful iguana!

Absolute and outright lie. Prolife Louisiana (which surely knows better) gave Edwards 100% rating year after year. So, you are a liar. End of story..

[Ebsy]

Have you guys been following the 500 million dollar budget hole fiasco? Jindal's plan to fill the hole he has dug is so odious, and it is going to remind Louisiana voters just what 8 years of Republican leadership has gotten them. Not good for Vitter certainly, even if Jindal is his enemy.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Great article about the Edwards' family and the current state of the race:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/11/20/louisiana-s-mudslinging-governor-s-race-can-blue-dog-democrat-john-bel-edwards-whip-david-vitter.html

[Adam Griffin]

If Vitter wins, this would probably be the biggest polling failure of the last decade at least.

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Get ready for history to be made!

[MT Treasurer]

If Vitter wins, this would probably be the biggest polling failure of the last decade at least.

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Get ready for history to be made!

You really think he will lose?

[Adam Griffin]

If Vitter wins, this would probably be the biggest polling failure of the last decade at least.

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Get ready for history to be made!

You really think he will lose?

I'm not confident at all that he'll win. It's the South.

[windjammer]

If Vitter wins, this would probably be the biggest polling failure of the last decade at least.

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Get ready for history to be made!

You really think he will lose?

I'm not confident at all that he'll win. It's the South.

^^^^^^^^^^

[DrScholl]

Comparing it to Kansas is a poor comparison, because Kansas is a traditionally Republican state up and down the ballot. Davis only polled above 50% in one poll, which was Rasmussen and that was an outlier from other polls, which pushed the average overall toward him. With this race, there has been more consistency and Vitter has been in a tougher position than Brownback.

[Torie]

JMC (whoever they are) has Edwards up by 5%, a drop from 16% per the same polling outfit 3 days earlier. What's going on?

[DINGO Joe]

The two basic differences between Kentucky and Louisiana this election cycle are:

1)Nothing comparable in Louisiana to coal in Kentucky (an isolated utterly dependent region is losing their only source of jobs--and of course Obama is to blame)

2) Bevins had party unity, endorsed by all his primary opponents and even campaigned on the theme the last week.

In Louisiana the two largest Parishes are East Baton Rouge and Jefferson.  In East Baton Rouge the largest Republican vote getter (by more than 2-1 over Vitter) has endorsed Edwards.  In Jefferson Parish a whole raft of elected Republicans, led by the Parish Sheriff have endorsed Edwards and are actively working against Vitter.  Now, I don't know how politics works in your state, but around here if you go to the trouble to break party ranks you want to finish the job, you don't that person in a position of power.  

Beyond that you have concrete information like the early vote numbers which show a strong upward trend in Urban voting, including urban whites and a downtrend in rural counties that Vitter would have to dominate.  

[Asian Nazi]

Vittermentum!

[Gass3268]

With the new JMC poll, I'm switching my prediction to Vitter.

50.5 Vitter
49.5 Edwards

Hopefully I'm wrong and I'm over compensating for what happened in Kentucky, but it looks like Vitter is getting the necessary swing from white voters that he needs to win. Hopefully Edwards banked enough votes in the early period to overcome the swing.

[Torie]

With the new JMC poll, I'm switching my prediction to Vitter.

50.5 Vitter
49.5 Edwards

Hopefully I'm wrong and I'm over compensating for what happened in Kentucky, but it looks like Vitter is getting the necessary swing from white voters that he needs to win. Hopefully Edwards banked enough votes in the early period to overcome the swing.

Except that that RRH poll had Vitter winning the early votes.

[Gass3268]

With the new JMC poll, I'm switching my prediction to Vitter.

50.5 Vitter
49.5 Edwards

Hopefully I'm wrong and I'm over compensating for what happened in Kentucky, but it looks like Vitter is getting the necessary swing from white voters that he needs to win. Hopefully Edwards banked enough votes in the early period to overcome the swing.

Except that that RRH poll had Vitter winning the early votes.

That polls seemed off.

Here is a link to the RRH poll, in case it was not put it. The most interesting thing is that of the close to half of the voters who have already voted, Vitter leads 48% to 44% over Edwards. The poll has those who have not yet voted, but likely to vote, going 52% to 36% for Edwards. That strikes me as a rather amazing discrepancy.

They way oversampled early voters.

21% of the primary electorate voted early, which was the highest early vote share in any recent statewide election.

Hmmm. That seems like a major flaw doesn't it?

[Torie]

With the new JMC poll, I'm switching my prediction to Vitter.

50.5 Vitter
49.5 Edwards

Hopefully I'm wrong and I'm over compensating for what happened in Kentucky, but it looks like Vitter is getting the necessary swing from white voters that he needs to win. Hopefully Edwards banked enough votes in the early period to overcome the swing.

Except that that RRH poll had Vitter winning the early votes.

That polls seemed off.

Here is a link to the RRH poll, in case it was not put it. The most interesting thing is that of the close to half of the voters who have already voted, Vitter leads 48% to 44% over Edwards. The poll has those who have not yet voted, but likely to vote, going 52% to 36% for Edwards. That strikes me as a rather amazing discrepancy.

They way oversampled early voters.

21% of the primary electorate voted early, which was the highest early vote share in any recent statewide election.

Hmmm. That seems like a major flaw doesn't it?

It certainly seems off as to the relative proportion of the voters who voted early, but whether it is also off as to how the probably smaller proportion of the early voters actually voted, is another matter. In any event, the JMC poll seems to be reasonably in sync with the RRH poll. Of course, both polls could be junk. We shall find out. Polls in general are getting less and less reliable. In time, maybe polls in general will become things of the past. There is just no way to get a reliable sample anymore. So it becomes more of an art than a science.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'm staying with my earlier 52-48 Edwards prediction, but I have new predictions for the other races:

Nungesser 56
Holden 44

Landry 52
Caldwell 48

[BigSkyBob]

With the new JMC poll, I'm switching my prediction to Vitter.

50.5 Vitter
49.5 Edwards

Hopefully I'm wrong and I'm over compensating for what happened in Kentucky, but it looks like Vitter is getting the necessary swing from white voters that he needs to win. Hopefully Edwards banked enough votes in the early period to overcome the swing.

Except that that RRH poll had Vitter winning the early votes.

Well, the JMC poll had Edwards winning the early vote 51% to 44.% If RRH's poll of early voters was correct, and, its assumption of a 26% Black total turnout is correct, Vitter is actually leading.

[Miles]

I could have added several more, but I did an AOS article looking at 8 parishes to watch.