Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[Tender Branson]

I might actually get up at 3am tomorrow (well, Sunday) night to watch this live after all ...

But I still believe Edwards is going to win (but by a closer margin of around 10%).

[Miles]

The Daily Show takes on prostitutes vs patriots.

[The Other Castro]

Hey Miles, your Louisiana parish maps are being talked about on the PredictIt market for this race.

[Miles]

^ Thanks! I just went over and saw it

[7,052,770]

The Daily Show takes on prostitutes vs patriots.

What's the "real story" on Edwards having a campaign event in a strip club?

[Miles]

The Daily Show takes on prostitutes vs patriots.

What's the "real story" on Edwards having a campaign event in a strip club?

Edwards had a meet-and-greet at a venue that used risque advertising to promote some of its other events in the past - I can't imagine any New Orleans area bar doing that...

The event was hosted by a coalition of businesses. It was billed as a meet-and-greet and then the attendants would go vote early. Edwards was with his wife and the event took place at 3PM in the afternoon.

[The_Doctor]

Changing prediction to 51-49% Vitter (R). I think the momentum is going to head towards Vitter and the Syria refugee reaction is going to be a crucial thing.

[Holmes]

Edwards 54
Vitter 46

Refugee shenanigans stops this from being a blowout, but early voting and a decent election day showing give Edwards a comfortable victory.

[morgieb]

Yeah, for whatever reason I feel really pessimistic here now too. JMC having Edwards under 50% didn't help.....

If Edwards loses, RIP polling industry? They've had an awful lot of misses recently.....

[/]

Yeah, for whatever reason I feel really pessimistic here now too. JMC having Edwards under 50% didn't help.....

If Edwards loses, RIP polling industry? They've had an awful lot of misses recently.....

Hey, you know, at least that means Bernie Sanders will win the SC primaries.

[Kingpoleon]

I'm staying with my earlier 52-48 Edwards prediction, but I have new predictions for the other races:

Nungesser 56
Holden 44

Landry 52
Caldwell 48

Predicting:
Edwards: 52.2%
Vitter: 47.7%

Nungesser: 55.5%
Holden: 44.4%

Landry: 51.8%
Caldwell: 48.2%

[Miles]

Its election day in Louisiana!

First observation: Jay Dardenne's son is a massive FF:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Maxwell]

Add Jay Dardenne to the list of Republicans I still respect.

[user12345]

The Daily Show takes on prostitutes vs patriots.

JBL is the most savage politician ever.

[Adam Griffin]

I had completely missed mention of that part in the clip (literally the best lines of this campaign) where he says:

"Not as interesting as your date night, Senator"

"I give 100% to my wife, that's who I give 100% to: Senator, you ought to try it"

[RFayette]

This is an interesting positive ad run on behalf of Edwards. It never mentions his party, and you'd think he'd be a Republican just from watching it.

Reminds me of an ad that Mike McIntyre ran in 2012.

Those are my kinds of Democrats!

[smoltchanov]

This is an interesting positive ad run on behalf of Edwards. It never mentions his party, and you'd think he'd be a Republican just from watching it.

Reminds me of an ad that Mike McIntyre ran in 2012.

Those are my kinds of Democrats!

For me - depends. In the Deep Sourth white majority districts - my too. McIntyre district was, probably, most Deep South-like in North Carolina, so - too. Or, say, in UT-4: no liberal could win there, but Matheson - could. Naturally that means that my favorite Republican candidates in most of the North-East are very moderate (unlike, say, TX-13)....

[Tender Branson]

Results pages:

https://voterportal.sos.la.gov/Graphical

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2015/by_state/LA_Governor_1121.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

[Wonderess]

Does anyone know if there is a result page with a live map of parishes as they come in?

[Türkisblau]

Another amazing high-energy ad out from Mickey Murphy, this one features white Jindal.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2NbLhy2mHHg

[Miles]

Does anyone know if there is a result page with a live map of parishes as they come in?

Check AOS later.

[smoltchanov]

Another amazing high-energy ad out from Mickey Murphy, this one features white Jindal.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2NbLhy2mHHg

Murphy will, probably, lose. St. Tammany Parish is too Republican. Even Ben Nevers (a very socially conservative Democrat and fixture in local politics for 2 decades at least) lost it 2:1 in 2011. He won only by getting good margins in Tangipahoa and Washington parishes. Not sure Murphy can repeat that...

[Miles]

Ugh, it will rain in most of the state south of I-10 at some point or another today. The rain right now is mostly focused in Acadiana. New Orleans and Baton Rouge will get some towards mid-day, but it looks like things will be mostly clear for at least the last 4 or 5 hours of voting there.

The north may be having an outsized influence here...

[Hydera]

Ugh, it will rain in most of the state south of I-10 at some point or another today. The rain right now is mostly focused in Acadiana. New Orleans and Baton Rouge will get some towards mid-day, but it looks like things will be mostly clear for at least the last 4 or 5 hours of voting there.

The north may be having an outsized influence here...

Not a big deal. Most of the rain is going to be in cajun country which has went from a democrat leaning to strongly GOP leaning region(even stronger than the traditionally republican north) over the past 1.5 decades.  

So this supposedly this should help bel edwards.... somewhat...

[smoltchanov]

Ugh, it will rain in most of the state south of I-10 at some point or another today. The rain right now is mostly focused in Acadiana. New Orleans and Baton Rouge will get some towards mid-day, but it looks like things will be mostly clear for at least the last 4 or 5 hours of voting there.

The north may be having an outsized influence here...

Not a big deal. Most of the rain is going to be in cajun country which has went from a democrat leaning to strongly GOP leaning region over the past 1.5 decades. 

So this supposedly this should help bel edwards.... somewhat...

May be. Most cajuns are ancestrally Democratic, but - very conservative on social isuues. And they reacted very negatively on Obama's presidency...