Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Ugh, it will rain in most of the state south of I-10 at some point or another today. The rain right now is mostly focused in Acadiana. New Orleans and Baton Rouge will get some towards mid-day, but it looks like things will be mostly clear for at least the last 4 or 5 hours of voting there.

The north may be having an outsized influence here...

Not a big deal. Most of the rain is going to be in cajun country which has went from a democrat leaning to strongly GOP leaning region(even stronger than the traditionally republican north) over the past 1.5 decades.  

So this supposedly this should help bel edwards.... somewhat...

I was working a bit on the Nashville mayoral election a few months ago, and when it was supposed to rain on Election Day, the Fox people were excited, because apparently Republicans vote and Democrats don't on rainy days, but then it turned into a beautiful sunny summer afternoon, and Barry, the Democrat, won 55-45.  Rain might actually be good for Vitter here.

[Holmes]

If you're excited for rain to carry you to victory, you're probably not going to have a good night.

[Hydera]

Ugh, it will rain in most of the state south of I-10 at some point or another today. The rain right now is mostly focused in Acadiana. New Orleans and Baton Rouge will get some towards mid-day, but it looks like things will be mostly clear for at least the last 4 or 5 hours of voting there.

The north may be having an outsized influence here...

Not a big deal. Most of the rain is going to be in cajun country which has went from a democrat leaning to strongly GOP leaning region(even stronger than the traditionally republican north) over the past 1.5 decades.  

So this supposedly this should help bel edwards.... somewhat...

I was working a bit on the Nashville mayoral election a few months ago, and when it was supposed to rain on Election Day, the Fox people were excited, because apparently Republicans vote and Democrats don't on rainy days, but then it turned into a beautiful sunny summer afternoon, and Barry, the Democrat, won 55-45.  Rain might actually be good for Vitter here.

Yeah but the rain is mostly concentrated in Cajun country. Democrat's strength is mostly in south east where Baton Rogue and New Orleans is. Which won't be getting a lot of rain.

[Wonderess]

I think tonight will be surprising just as the Kentucky governor's race was. I believe some underestimate the anti-Obama sentiment in Louisiana. 

[Phony Moderate]

Thing is that us political junkies will forever take opinion polls seriously, even if Vitter pulls off a 60-40 victory tonight.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Vitter wins 60-40, I will until further notice treat all polling as garbage in the south, and predict purely on fundamentals for those races.

[Kingpoleon]

If Vitter wins by >2.5%, I'm predicting Boozman wins with >70%.

[Miles]

Ugh, it will rain in most of the state south of I-10 at some point or another today. The rain right now is mostly focused in Acadiana. New Orleans and Baton Rouge will get some towards mid-day, but it looks like things will be mostly clear for at least the last 4 or 5 hours of voting there.

The north may be having an outsized influence here...

Not a big deal. Most of the rain is going to be in cajun country which has went from a democrat leaning to strongly GOP leaning region(even stronger than the traditionally republican north) over the past 1.5 decades.  

So this supposedly this should help bel edwards.... somewhat...

I was working a bit on the Nashville mayoral election a few months ago, and when it was supposed to rain on Election Day, the Fox people were excited, because apparently Republicans vote and Democrats don't on rainy days, but then it turned into a beautiful sunny summer afternoon, and Barry, the Democrat, won 55-45.  Rain might actually be good for Vitter here.

Yeah but the rain is mostly concentrated in Cajun country. Democrat's strength is mostly in south east where Baton Rogue and New Orleans is. Which won't be getting a lot of rain.

However it may effect the upballot races, Buddy Caldwell has to be happy about this map:

[The Other Castro]

If it was discovered that Caldwell was a God of Weather, would that count as election fraud?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Ugh, it will rain in most of the state south of I-10 at some point or another today. The rain right now is mostly focused in Acadiana. New Orleans and Baton Rouge will get some towards mid-day, but it looks like things will be mostly clear for at least the last 4 or 5 hours of voting there.

The north may be having an outsized influence here...

Not a big deal. Most of the rain is going to be in cajun country which has went from a democrat leaning to strongly GOP leaning region(even stronger than the traditionally republican north) over the past 1.5 decades.  

So this supposedly this should help bel edwards.... somewhat...

I was working a bit on the Nashville mayoral election a few months ago, and when it was supposed to rain on Election Day, the Fox people were excited, because apparently Republicans vote and Democrats don't on rainy days, but then it turned into a beautiful sunny summer afternoon, and Barry, the Democrat, won 55-45.  Rain might actually be good for Vitter here.

Yeah but the rain is mostly concentrated in Cajun country. Democrat's strength is mostly in south east where Baton Rogue and New Orleans is. Which won't be getting a lot of rain.

However it may effect the upballot races, Buddy Caldwell has to be happy about this map:

That rain is covering all of Baton Rouge and part of new Orleans. Why isn't that bad news for Caldwell, given that turnout from democrats who remember when he was still a Democrat is important for him?

[Miles]

^ Because his funding started to run out towards the end of the race and he's mostly gone dark on the airwaves in some of the metros down there.

[Miles]

^ No worries - polls close at 9 ET.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Not to mention, LA tends to have a slow start.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

I am very cynical and pessimistic about the South, so I expect everyone to get into the voting booth and forget the candidates' names and just look and the "D" and "R", and press "R".

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I am very cynical and pessimistic about the South, so I expect everyone to get into the voting booth and forget the candidates' names and just look and the "D" and "R", and press "R".

Press? Not entirely sure if LA has moved to electronic ballots yet. Miles?

[Miles]

^ Yes, in Louisiana voting is electronic.

[Xing]

Well, only five hours until the polls close. I'm still predicting a small Edwards win, but I can't deny that I'm feeling pretty uneasy, and I don't have a lot of confidence in that prediction. I know.... "This isn't Kentucky." But there have been many polling failures in the past two years, and the fact that Louisiana has been such a hard place for a Democrat to win are still making an Edwards win seem like something from another reality.

[DrScholl]

Vitter is supposed to be a soldier for Jesus, yet he has been busted for backdating a letter about the Syria.

http://bobmannblog.com/2015/11/20/vitters-warning-to-obama-about-syrian-refugees-came-in-fraudualent-backdated-letter-sent-to-state-dept-on-tuesday/

Integrity doesn't matter? I really beg to differ.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Vitter is supposed to be a soldier for Jesus, yet he has been busted for backdating a letter about the Syria.

http://bobmannblog.com/2015/11/20/vitters-warning-to-obama-about-syrian-refugees-came-in-fraudualent-backdated-letter-sent-to-state-dept-on-tuesday/

Integrity doesn't matter? I really beg to differ.

Nonsense. Vitter wrote it while he was still in diapers.

[madelka]

^ Yes, in Louisiana voting is electronic.

Ohio 2004 redux?

[ElectionsGuy]

To be honest, I want Vitter to win. I want Vitter to win to add to the drama and make things interesting. I want to see the fallout, the D reaction, and the polling industry reaction, etc. I don't think that will happen though, and I expect a Governor Edwards by next year.

[Miles]

^ Yes, in Louisiana voting is electronic.

Ohio 2004 redux?

Over even worse, like KY last month.

[Hydera]

^ Yes, in Louisiana voting is electronic.

Ohio 2004 redux?

I hate this conspiracy theory.


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/oh_polls.html


Ohio was a tossup state and if theres a real conspiracy its Osama releasing a threatening tape a week prior to the election to help bush get elected since he knew the US would keep wasting resources on the mid-east if Bush was re-elected.

After the tape was released, it was all but certain that Bush gained enough support that he won Ohio.

Plus the polls a week prior, only one out of nine polls conducted in the state had Kerry leading.

I don't like Bush but he won Ohio in 2004 fair and square because of help from Osama.

dems have to really stop with their psychological obsession with "Ohio 2004 Electronic Fraud Bush Diebold Conspiracy" i know its your coping mechanism after losing that election but its as ridiculous as "Obama only won 2012 because of voter fraud".

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

^ Yes, in Louisiana voting is electronic.

Ohio 2004 redux?

I hate this conspiracy theory.


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/oh_polls.html


Ohio was a tossup state and if theres a real conspiracy its Osama releasing a threatening tape a week prior to the election to help bush get elected since he knew the US would keep wasting resources on the mid-east if Bush was re-elected.

After the tape was released, it was all but certain that Bush gained enough support that he won Ohio.

Plus the polls a week prior, only one out of nine polls conducted in the state had Kerry leading.

I don't like Bush but he won Ohio in 2004 fair and square because of help from one man.

Electronic voting machines never make mistakes. When Gore got -16,022 votes in one precinct in Florida, it was just a bad precinct for him.

[JerryArkansas]

I'm not really paying attention to the election result tonight. What I like it the fact that a Democrat went negative, and I mean negative and didn't explode should give all dems across the country a road map for the future. Especially when Vitter was suppose to 3 months ago win this without a runoff with about 50 to 55 percent of the vote.