Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[Holmes]

Jefferson Parish precinct map.

So what kind of neighbourhood is precinct 0-153 and 0-154? 100% African-American?

[Hydera]

Jefferson Parish precinct map.

The precints yet to be counted are heavily black neighborhoods. So the race might be ended with 56 OR 57% for edwards.

[IceSpear]

Will Edwards win by a bigger margin than Cassidy? Remaining vote looks like mainly Orleans.

[ElectionsGuy]

Jefferson Parish precinct map.

PATHETIC numbers in Metairie for Vitter. I didn't expect this much of a landslide.

[/]

Not unreasonable for after 2018, but perhaps a bit too optimistic (especially if Hillary is elected)

[/]

Jefferson Parish precinct map.

So what kind of neighbourhood is precinct 0-153 and 0-154? 100% African-American?

0-153 is like a mini Congress voting all for Edwards

[DINGO Joe]

I tried to imagine a county map for this and this is what I came up with



Then I realized, this is very similar to Landrieu's 52-46 win in 2008. It looks like Louisiana is reverting back to when a sizable number of whites voted Democratic (30-40%). I tried to work out a reasonable scenario:

Whites (65%): 65% Vitter, 35% Edwards
Blacks (30%): 95% Edwards, 5% Vitter
Other (5%): 65% Edwards, 35% Vitter

Equates to 54.5% Edwards, 45.5% Vitter. Edwards needs just 28% of the white vote to win, more if black turnout isn't as good.

I don't have Edwards winning Ouachita, but I do have him winning Rapides, Allen, Jeff Davis and Ascension

Well, I got all of those right, should have seen St. Charles (a sweep of the Saints).  I got Jackson wrong too, but who cares (I not always sure which Parish is Jackson anyway).

Weather was much more unpleasant in the southern third of the state, so it's good that Edwards was so strong in the early vote, though Edwards won election day vote anyway.

Jefferson was disappointing, thought it would be 55-45.  Freakin Metairie, I ain't spending any Christmas money out there this year.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Edwards is at 56% now. Could get up to 57%.

[Skye]

East Baton Rouge Parish precincts 1-32 A and 1-32 B:

Edwards 474
Vitter 0


Ouch.

[Frodo]

What's happening with the legislature?  How many seats have Republicans gained so far in either chamber? 

[The Other Castro]

Edwards is at 56% now. Could get up to 57%.

Hopefully he continues to rise so it matches my prediction:

Eh, I'm feeling bold.

Edwards: 57.9%
Vitter: 42.1%

[Talleyrand]

What's happening with the legislature?  How many seats have Republicans gained so far in either chamber? 

There's been no change from the jungle primary. In the House, all incumbents were re-elected. In the Senate, Democrats picked up an open Republican seat and Republicans picked up an open Democratic seat.

[smoltchanov]

Where is that "Vitter for Governor" poster when "good god-fearing people of Louisiana" finally (and strongly) kicked that slime David Vitter ass?))))) I wanted to say him: "swallow it, and if you can't - choke on it!"

Almost 56% for Edwards is quite the achievement. Expected about 56% for Nungesser, but not for Landry (most of the "other" vote were for Democrats and it seemed - they would prefer Caldwell). The biggest surprize in Legislature is, probably, Milkovich (D, but very socially conservative) victory in SD-38 - 2 previous campains for US House probably made him wery well known in the district...

[VPH]

Look at the Clerk of Court map vs the Sheriff map. Odd...
http://elections.thelensnola.org/2015/gubernatorial-general/index.html#&detail_level=st_tammany_precincts&race=St.%20Tammany%20Clerk%20of%20Court

[henster]

Not unreasonable for after 2018, but perhaps a bit too optimistic (especially if Hillary is elected)

Baker and Hogan are not going anywhere at this point, will be very difficult to dislodge. ME is a wild card as well if Susan Collins runs. NJ, NM, NV will probably be the easiest pickups in that order. Out of WI, MI, IL, FL, CO, IA, & OH, I'd say we probably pickup WI, MI, & IL and lose CO, the rest the probable Republican candidates in those states will be pretty difficult to beat.

[DINGO Joe]

Look at the Clerk of Court map vs the Sheriff map. Odd...
http://elections.thelensnola.org/2015/gubernatorial-general/index.html#&detail_level=st_tammany_precincts&race=St.%20Tammany%20Clerk%20of%20Court

I haven't live or paid attention to St. Tammany in more than 15 years, but there has always been an East-West split up there.

[Adam Griffin]

You're welcome

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Well this is a pleasant surprise.

[IceSpear]

Looks like 56.1-43.9 will be the final spread. So Edwards wins by a larger margin than Cassidy and Nungesser. On top of that, he's carried Jefferson Parish with 100% in. Dominating!

[Hydera]

Was wondering for a long time why Blanco won by a small margin despite winning so many counties. Then i checked the margin maps,  She super overperformed in rural areas but underperformed in the suburbs and as a democrat underperformed in the cities.

Edwards performed great in rural areas for a democrat, but did quite well in suburbs and the cities.


His next election will be much harder.


Plus the loss of the cajun voting bloc as a significiant base for democrats, means edwards will have to tread lightly next time when he doesnt have vitter to kick around and allow him to win parishes that are heavily GOP in presidential years.

[Miles]

You're welcome

Thanks, Adam!

This actually looks a lot like the Pres. swing from 08 to 12.

[ElectionsGuy]

Did a quick 2012 Pres vs 2015 Gov in Paint using 50%, 60%, and 70% thresholds (non-atlas colors).

2012:



2015:

[Mr.Phips]

I like the grid that seems to have formed with MT/CO/MN/MO/LA

And yeah Walker (AK) is basically a Republican so

Still incredibly pathetic that Dems lost Maryland.  Unlike Massachusetts, the Dem base here is pretty unswingable and any Democrat should be able to win here regardless of the political environment.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Final Results:

Governor
All 3945 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
John Bel Edwards (D)   56.11%   646860
David Vitter (R)   43.89%   505929
Lieutenant Governor
All 3945 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
Melvin L. "Kip" Holden (D)   44.62%   506578
"Billy" Nungesser (R)   55.38%   628864
Attorney General
All 3945 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
James D. "Buddy" Caldwell (R)   43.70%   473869
"Jeff" Landry (R)   56.30%   610433

[Figueira]

I like the grid that seems to have formed with MT/CO/MN/MO/LA

And yeah Walker (AK) is basically a Republican so

Chihuahua needs to join the US and elect a Democratic Governor.