Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog
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  Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog
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Author Topic: Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog  (Read 173082 times)
IceSpear
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« Reply #1375 on: November 22, 2015, 01:03:26 AM »

Miles, I'm surprised you haven't mentioned nutjob Lenar Whitney losing her state House seat by 22 points (!).

Thanks for telling me! Haha

Its funny, I got into an argument with her last year on Twitter. She was defending Elbert Guillory. Pretty sweet that both of them are out of office now! Smiley

Yeah, I was just randomly scrolling through the AP results page, and knew I recognized her name from somewhere. I Googled it and remembered.
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hopper
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« Reply #1376 on: November 22, 2015, 01:06:14 AM »

lmao Cameron Parish voted 87% for Romney in 2012, just gave 59% for John Bel
That's a 72% point D swing.
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hopper
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« Reply #1377 on: November 22, 2015, 01:07:50 AM »

Democrats need more fighters like JBE. He knows exactly what to say and how to attack.
Yes Edwards ran a great campaign on attacking Vitter's character.
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hopper
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« Reply #1378 on: November 22, 2015, 01:11:16 AM »

Swing and Trend from Vitter's last election in 2010:


The Northeast Panhandle of the state really did Vitter in I think in this years election.
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hopper
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« Reply #1379 on: November 22, 2015, 01:15:46 AM »

Hey you win some you lose some. That's the way it is.
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hopper
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« Reply #1380 on: November 22, 2015, 01:23:04 AM »

Now we need to find another 20 or so John Bel's to sweep Southern gubernatorial and senatorial races.

The only reason Edwards won is because Vitter barely survived the jungle primary. Republicans have no one to blame but themselves here. It's still hilarious that Matt Bevin (LOL) won while David Vitter lost.
Well there were 2 other Republicans in the jungle primary. It is hilarious that Bevin won and Vitter lost. I do wonder if Dem Governor's have a better chance of getting elected in Louisiana than say the rest of the Southern States with exceptions being NC, VA, or FL from here on in.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #1381 on: November 22, 2015, 01:29:49 AM »

From 2012 to 2015, the largest swing by far was Cameron parish (74 points!). Its a small 90% white parish in Cajun country, so not as surprising but that's still huge. Other huge swings include Jefferson Davis (56.5) , Avoyelles (54.7), and Allen (51.5), all in Acadania. Parishes in and around the Baton Rouge area and Edwards' district were a hard swing as well. The areas with the least swing were the blackest parishes and many in the north, like Claiborne (17), Sabine (18), Union (19), etc. The north is the deepest south part of the state, so naturally the most polarized and inelastic.
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Miles
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« Reply #1382 on: November 22, 2015, 01:30:38 AM »

Very well said, Gov. Jindal!

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Miles
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« Reply #1383 on: November 22, 2015, 01:32:55 AM »

From 2012 to 2015, the largest swing by far was Cameron parish (74 points!). Its a small 90% white parish in Cajun country, so not as surprising but that's still huge.

Landrieu carried it in 2002 and then in 2008 when McCain was getting 81% there!
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1384 on: November 22, 2015, 01:33:46 AM »


I think we all know Piyush voted for Edwards. Honestly though, he couldn't win this race. Either way it was a rebuke to him considering how often both candidates threw him under the bus. I'm kind of wondering if his drop out wasn't timed just so he didn't have to suffer embarrassment from this while still in the presidential arena.
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hopper
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« Reply #1385 on: November 22, 2015, 01:39:37 AM »

Democrats ended the GOP supermajority in the Senate actually.

Dem Pickups: 24, 38

Rep Pickups: 12

That leaves the Senate balance at 14D and 25R.

Isn't Milkovich a very conservative socially?

"Milkovich, who grew up working on cattle ranches, said he stands in firm support of the Second Amendment, the free expression of faith and the eradication of Common Core standards in Louisiana schools. Milkovich said the heart of his campaign stemmed from values that unite the community — faith, family and hard work.​​

"It's time to get back to old school," Milkovich said in an earlier interview with The Times. "We should defund Planned Parenthood. We should support religious liberties of teachers, of coaches and principals. Familes have to live on a budget, so should the government. It's time to reduce the size of the government and cut taxes on working families and small businesses." ​

http://www.shreveporttimes.com/story/news/2015/11/21/senate-race-district-38/76104502/
Milkovich sounds like a House Republican in the "Freedom Caucus" with his defunding of Planned Parenthood rhetoric and reducing the size of government. Cutting taxes sounds like Reagan from 1980.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #1386 on: November 22, 2015, 01:42:23 AM »


I think we all know Piyush voted for Edwards. Honestly though, he couldn't win this race. Either way it was a rebuke to him considering how often both candidates threw him under the bus. I'm kind of wondering if his drop out wasn't timed just so he didn't have to suffer embarrassment from this while still in the presidential arena.

What more could be done to him?  Move him from the kiddie table to the Gerber's table?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1387 on: November 22, 2015, 01:43:40 AM »

Final numbers with all precincts in:

Edwards: 646,860 (56.1%)
Vitter: 505,929 (43.9%)

Finally, excellent news !

My prediction was only off by 0.7% then:


This continues my trend of having better US predictions than Austrian election predictions ... Tongue
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RI
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« Reply #1388 on: November 22, 2015, 01:45:11 AM »
« Edited: November 22, 2015, 01:51:55 AM by realisticidealist »

Lt. Gov map



AG map

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1389 on: November 22, 2015, 01:48:01 AM »


Turnout was about 34%, looking at the final numbers from the SoS page.

Which means it's only up 1% from the already abysmal 33% turnout in the jungle primary.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1390 on: November 22, 2015, 01:59:39 AM »

Isn't it disgusting that 2/3 voters do not care about deciding who's their next Governor ?
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Miles
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« Reply #1391 on: November 22, 2015, 02:05:16 AM »

^ I saw 39.7%. The SOS office projected 42%.
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hopper
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« Reply #1392 on: November 22, 2015, 02:06:03 AM »

Isn't it disgusting that 2/3 voters do not care about deciding who's their next Governor ?
Most Voters just care about the Presidential Election.
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #1393 on: November 22, 2015, 04:23:45 AM »

Next important question - Did Mickey Murphy win his election against Beth Mizell?

Just found out the saddening, disappointing answer - DAMN IT.

how could a guy who did this ad lose???
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #1394 on: November 22, 2015, 04:32:17 AM »
« Edited: November 22, 2015, 05:33:04 AM by Miles »

I enjoyed making this map Smiley

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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #1395 on: November 22, 2015, 04:55:41 AM »

5 out of 6? Shocked



Landrieu versus Edwards. Not really interesting, to be honest - fairly uniform improvement across most of the state for Edwards, an over-performance in his home region and an under-performance in the areas wrought by Katrina.

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windjammer
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« Reply #1396 on: November 22, 2015, 05:00:10 AM »
« Edited: November 22, 2015, 05:01:54 AM by windjammer »

Miles,
How is black turnout? Tongue
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #1397 on: November 22, 2015, 05:01:23 AM »
« Edited: November 22, 2015, 05:20:23 AM by Miles »

^ Thanks Adam.

One nitpick is that Landrieu carried Iberia parish but JBE didn't. Interesting that the whole southern coast would be blue.


We'll have to wait for the SOS report.
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Senator Cris
Cris
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« Reply #1398 on: November 22, 2015, 06:00:37 AM »

What happened to TexasDemocrat?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1399 on: November 22, 2015, 06:01:30 AM »

^ I saw 39.7%. The SOS office projected 42%.

Well, both my turnout figure and yours/SOS are correct. It just depends what benchmark you are using. From 4 weeks ago:

Turnout was 38.5%. It was raining in most of the state during the day, but still below estimates.

More like 33%.

In Louisiana, only 84% of the voting-age citizen population is registered to vote.

That's 2.894.500 of 3.448.200 persons.

553.700 who are 18+ and citizens are not registered to vote for some reason. A good 100.000 of them are in prison or on parole and therefore cannot vote.

If we adjust these figures, actual turnout comes in at only ~33%.
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