Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[Tender Branson]

Also, I will earmark the pollster MRI when it comes to the Presidential polling next year in LA.

MRI was best and pretty damn close to the actual results in both the jungle and runoff.

While you can throw the other pollsters into the trashcan.

[Miles]

Jefferson Parish

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I forgot all about the runoff last night--I wonder how that happened.  But we got our first snow of the season up here, and it was a doozy.  Our power went out last night, so I guess I couldn't have seen the returns even if I wanted to.

Yahoo is calling Edwards' victory an "upset."  Apparently they went to sleep in the early months of the campaign, because they saw nothing about Vitter's scandals or how Edwards closed the gap.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

How did Kip Holden do in CD-6?

[Miles]

^ I'm doing LG next - will have that up later

[Skye]

I forgot all about the runoff last night--I wonder how that happened.  But we got our first snow of the season up here, and it was a doozy.  Our power went out last night, so I guess I couldn't have seen the returns even if I wanted to.

Yahoo is calling Edwards' victory an "upset."  Apparently they went to sleep in the early months of the campaign, because they saw nothing about Vitter's scandals or how Edwards closed the gap.

Even when polling predicts a victory close to the election, the media still calls it an upset when months ago it was seen as impossible for him to win.

[DINGO Joe]

Haven't seen an official tabulation of the early vote, but it looks like it went about 57-58% for Edwards, which means the late polls that tried to gage early voters failed badly.

[Badger]

I forgot all about the runoff last night--I wonder how that happened.  But we got our first snow of the season up here, and it was a doozy.  Our power went out last night, so I guess I couldn't have seen the returns even if I wanted to.

Yahoo is calling Edwards' victory an "upset."  Apparently they went to sleep in the early months of the campaign, because they saw nothing about Vitter's scandals or how Edwards closed the gap.

Even when polling predicts a victory close to the election, the media still calls it an upset when months ago it was seen as impossible for him to win.

yeah, "urprise landslide" would've been more accurate.

though to be fair, over a third of Atlas posters were predicting a Vitter win, and almost all the rest were predicting Edwards ekeing out a narrow win.

[Badger]

I enjoyed making this map

Is it me or is LA's Congressional map a horribly gerrymandered POS?

I mean don't get me wrong . i realize voting is largely along racial lines and it'll be tough for Democrats to win a second seat outside of Orleans , let alone (lol) a congressional majority .but damned if this map doesn't look wrtten to ensure tat as much asbthe VRAA will possibly allow.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I enjoyed making this map

Is it me or is LA's Congressional map a horribly gerrymandered POS?

There's a requirement for a VRA district, so that takes up a lot of the democratic base vote. But it's probably more gerrymandered than it has to be.

[/]

Is CD1 even contiguous?

[Sol]

The trouble with Louisiana is that the requirement of a black majority district (which is very easy to draw, but it has to include 2 of New Orleans, Baton Rouge, and Lafayette) means usually chopping up the NOLA area. And thanks to the region's peculiar shape, areas that generally belong together as common NOLA burbs are awkwardly scissored together.

[DrScholl]

A VRA district could conceivably include Baton Rouge, Lafayette and Opelousas without even touching New Orleans. Jefferson, Orleans, Plaquemines and St. Bernard could all be in one district. Of course, that would create two Democratic leaning districts and Republicans didn't want that.

[Bacon King]

Is CD1 even contiguous?

The small part of the district on the southern shore of Lake Pontchartrain is contiguous to the Northshore part of the district, via the Lake Pontchartrain Causeway (25 miles long, and takes about half an hour to travel across).

However, the half of the district south of New Orleans is only technically contiguous to the northern half because St. Bernard Parish has a ton of ocean territory within its borders, extending all the way to the shore of St. Tammany Parish. To connect between these two parishes, the district crosses 12 miles of ocean - and probably another 20 miles of bayou before you reach two points connected by road

[Miles]

There's a requirement for a VRA district, so that takes up a lot of the democratic base vote. But it's probably more gerrymandered than it has to be.

Here's the same basic map with 9 fewer parish splits and still keep CD2 majority BVAP (53%):

[Miles]

Baton Rouge.

[ElectionsGuy]

So the really amatuer map I made earlier in the thread is on the Wikipedia article for this race. No joke. lol, I feel famous right now

[Miles]

David Vitter (red) vs David Duke (blue)

[Miles]

Outgoing Sen. Ben Nevers will be Edwards' Chief of Staff and Sheriff Newell Normand will be on the transition team. Dardenne will probably get something, but no announcements today about him.

[seanNJ9]

Congrats to Govonor-elect Edwards, maybe your victory will show other Democrats not to shrink when it comes to being calling out Republicans for their hypocrisy. You can be tough when you are backed by the truth. 

[JMT]

Very excited about the Edwards victory!! But must say, I'm surprised that Edwards won by such a large margin, and Jeff Landry also won the AG race by a huge margin. With Edwards winning by that much, I didn't expect that result in the AG race.

[Skye]

So the really amatuer map I made earlier in the thread is on the Wikipedia article for this race. No joke. lol, I feel famous right now

Not anymore. Sorry, ElectionsGuy.

[Miles]

Ouachita Parish (Monroe)



This is the the most polarized large parish in the state. The Duck Dynasty people live here - obviously Vitter's ad with them didn't help very much, as he came very close to losing it.

I wasn't expecting Edwards to come this close, but the results is about on par with previous elections. Jindal carried it by almost 6% in 2003 and Duke got 50.6% in 1991.

[/]

Ouachita Parish (Monroe)



This is the the most polarized large parish in the state. The Duck Dynasty people live here - obviously Vitter's ad with them didn't help very much, as he came very close to losing it.

I wasn't expecting Edwards to come this close, but the results is about on par with previous elections. Jindal carried it by almost 6% in 2003 and Duke got 50.6% in 1991.

Edwards would have had all contiguous counties with it

[ElectionsGuy]

So the really amatuer map I made earlier in the thread is on the Wikipedia article for this race. No joke. lol, I feel famous right now

Not anymore. Sorry, ElectionsGuy.

That's good. That was an awful map ^ Very nice county maps!