Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[Miles]

As far as turnout, I haven't seen anything published on the SOS site yet, but a good source purports that Edwards got 37% of whites with a 30% black electorate.

[Adam Griffin]

As far as turnout, I haven't seen anything published on the SOS site yet, but a good source purports that Edwards got 37% of whites with a 30% black electorate.

That would imply (with loose math here) that he literally got 100% (possibly even slightly more) of the black vote.

I'll admit that I'm a little disappointed if that's the case. I had been assuming that JBE only got 90% of the black vote and that blacks were 28% of the electorate (FTR, I did assume that was under-projected), which made me think JBE won about 43% of the white vote.


Also, just poured over the gov results I uploaded to Atlas and realized that JBE won a majority of the land/water area in LA, scoring victories in parishes that comprise 61,236 km2. This was pretty close in percentage terms (54.3%) to his percentage of the vote (56.1%). This would seem nearly unthinkable in the modern-day South.

[smoltchanov]

As far as turnout, I haven't seen anything published on the SOS site yet, but a good source purports that Edwards got 37% of whites with a 30% black electorate.

That would imply (with loose math here) that he literally got 100% (possibly even slightly more) of the black vote.

I'll admit that I'm a little disappointed if that's the case. I had been assuming that JBE only got 90% of the black vote and that blacks were 28% of the electorate (FTR, I did assume that was under-projected), which made me think JBE won about 43% of the white vote.


Also, just poured over the gov results I uploaded to Atlas and realized that JBE won a majority of the land/water area in LA, scoring victories in parishes that comprise 61,236 km2. This was pretty close in percentage terms (54.3%) to his percentage of the vote (56.1%). This would seem nearly unthinkable in the modern-day South.

37% of white vote is now an outstanding percent for Democratic candidate in Deep South (even Hood got less, if i am correct). For comparison - how much white vote did Obama get in Louisiana and Mississippi?)))

[Miles]

^ 14% in Louisiana.

[Miles]

Also, just poured over the gov results I uploaded to Atlas and realized that JBE won a majority of the land/water area in LA, scoring victories in parishes that comprise 61,236 km2. This was pretty close in percentage terms (54.3%) to his percentage of the vote (56.1%). This would seem nearly unthinkable in the modern-day South.

What I really like its that his map connects all four corners of the state. Edwin Edwards in 1991 wasn't contiguous in the northwest and Jindal being from LA-01 kept Blanco from winning Jefferson or St. Bernard.

Forgive me, Adam - I stole that stat for Twitter

[Adam Griffin]

[Adam Griffin]

According to The Nation, JBE received 87% of the black vote. This means that he got between 40-43% of the white vote.

[Miles]

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Man, Holden would've had a real shot at the old LA-6.

[Miles]

^ Yeah, if I do the old CD's I'm sure he carried it really easily.

Here's another map that kinda goes with that. Holden did 1% better than Landrieu in 2014 (-10.8% vs -11.8 ).

[Hydera]

As far as turnout, I haven't seen anything published on the SOS site yet, but a good source purports that Edwards got 37% of whites with a 30% black electorate.

That site was talking about how Syria really didn't factor into the election. Personally i think without the Paris attacks in the last week, JBE would of won maybe around the 57% range. This is all my personal speculation,  Perhaps Cameron parish and Plaquemines with a large cajun population but where Edwards got 49%% he would of edged out Vitter.

But otherwise say Romney was President right now, the anti-incumbency factor would of allowed JBE to win around the mid 60s range and Win Cameron, Plaquemines, Iberia, Lafayttete, Ouchaita, Richland.

[Miles]

Lafourche and Terrebonne Parishes; one of the few bright areas for Vitter.

[smoltchanov]

Lafourche and Terrebonne Parishes; one of the few bright areas for Vitter.

Miles, historically both these parishes were very conservative, but - strongly Democratic. What happened in the last quarter century?

[Hydera]

Darker = More french speaking households

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/comparemaps.php?year=1988&fips=22&f=0&off=0&elect=0

TLDR: Democrat support declining in the historically democrat leaning cajun population.


Cajun catholics are more religious than other catholics so the rise of religious based voting issues might of had an effect down there.





If you want to read a little more into it, 70% of catholics voted for McCain in 2008. Compared to 47% who voted for Clinton back in 1996.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/louisiana-democrats-in-registration-only/?_r=0

[Miles]

Lafourche and Terrebonne Parishes; one of the few bright areas for Vitter.

Miles, historically both these parishes were very conservative, but - strongly Democratic. What happened in the last quarter century?

The BP oil spill really hurt Democrats there. Some legislative seats in this area aren't even plurality-Dem anymore, IIRC.

[rbt48]

I saw the state senate is 25R and 14D.  How is the line-up in the state house?  Also, what were the party gains/losses?

[Miles]

^

In the Senate Democrats picked up SD24 and SD38 but lost SD12

In the House, it should be 61 R/ 42 D/ 2 I. Democrats lost HD39 and HD41.

[smoltchanov]

^

In the Senate Democrats picked up SD24 and SD38 but lost SD12

In the House, it should be 61 R/ 42 D/ 2 I. Democrats lost HD39 and HD41.

Exactly. I would only add that 2 I will caucus with Republicans. Democrats survived this year with minimal losses, even better then in Mississippi. But, as i said earlier - there may be serious problems next time: about half of Legislature will be term-limited, and among white Democrats only 4 will have a right to run for reelection. Some open (next time) seats (HD-32, HD-33 and HD-54 first of all) are about R+30 or more. It's rather difficult to imagine them to stay Democratic (even if Democrats will run very "local" and conservative candidates). Of course - it's way too early, but i am reasonably sure the problem will exist...

[rbt48]

^

In the Senate Democrats picked up SD24 and SD38 but lost SD12

In the House, it should be 61 R/ 42 D/ 2 I. Democrats lost HD39 and HD41.

Exactly. I would only add that 2 I will caucus with Republicans. Democrats survived this year with minimal losses, even better then in Mississippi. But, as i said earlier - there may be serious problems next time: about half of Legislature will be term-limited, and among white Democrats only 4 will have a right to run for reelection. Some open (next time) seats (HD-32, HD-33 and HD-54 first of all) are about R+30 or more. It's rather difficult to imagine them to stay Democratic (even if Democrats will run very "local" and conservative candidates). Of course - it's way too early, but i am reasonably sure the problem will exist...

Awesome.  Thanks to both of you.


If I recall correctly, in Louisiana, the governor selects the Speaker of the House.  With a 3 to 2 deficit for Democrats, that could be interesting.

[smoltchanov]

^

In the Senate Democrats picked up SD24 and SD38 but lost SD12

In the House, it should be 61 R/ 42 D/ 2 I. Democrats lost HD39 and HD41.

Exactly. I would only add that 2 I will caucus with Republicans. Democrats survived this year with minimal losses, even better then in Mississippi. But, as i said earlier - there may be serious problems next time: about half of Legislature will be term-limited, and among white Democrats only 4 will have a right to run for reelection. Some open (next time) seats (HD-32, HD-33 and HD-54 first of all) are about R+30 or more. It's rather difficult to imagine them to stay Democratic (even if Democrats will run very "local" and conservative candidates). Of course - it's way too early, but i am reasonably sure the problem will exist...

Awesome.  Thanks to both of you.


If I recall correctly, in Louisiana, the governor selects the Speaker of the House.  With a 3 to 2 deficit for Democrats, that could be interesting.

Most likely - a "coalition candidate". If whole Democratic caucus will be joined by about dozen anti-Vitter and anti-Jindal Republicans - quite possible...

[Zache]

Reportedly, Edwards wants House Speaker pro tempore Walt Leger(D-New Orleans) to be the new Speaker.

[Miles]

Pretty bold pick - Leger has been touted as rising star in the party. Reportedly, the votes are there,too.

Looks like John Alario (D-turned-centrist R) will keep leading the Senate.

[Miles]

I'd like updated shapefiles from a handful of smaller parishes, but in the meantime, this is basically what I've come up with:

[Adam Griffin]

Glorious work!

What the hell is wrong with those people in northern Avoyelles? You rarely would see a >90% R precinct in Georgia with Obama on the ballot, regardless of size.

[Miles]

These were the two inter-party Senate runoffs:

SD12



Its a shame Murphy didn't do better, considering he had one of the best ads this year. He narrowly lost Washington and Tangipahoa, but the St. Tammany part was painful, voting 3:1 for Mizell.

SD38



Impressive win for Milkovich. He lost DeSoto by about 700 votes but won Caddo by 2,200.