Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[Zache]

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http://theadvocate.com/news/14118285-48/john-bel-edwards-improbable-journey

[Miles]

^ That was a good summary of the entire race. Earlier in the campaign, Vitter dismissed the writer, a respected local journalist named Tyler Bridges, as a Democratic 'tracker.'

[IceSpear]

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http://theadvocate.com/news/14118285-48/john-bel-edwards-improbable-journey

That's actually very clever. JBE is a boss.

[nclib]

How does the run-off map compare to the jungle primary with all Democrats added vs. all Republicans added?

[RI]

How does the run-off map compare to the jungle primary with all Democrats added vs. all Republicans added?

They're not very comparable, really. In the primary, all Dems totaled 41.61% (463,222 votes) while in the general, the Dems totaled 56.11% (646,865 votes).

[Miles]

Here’s my breakdown of the State Senate districts voted in the Governor’s race. Edwards carried a bare majority of the seats, 20/39 (though came close to 21).

Six Republicans (almost seven) sit in districts that Edwards carried, some of which by rather overwhelming margins. These are outlined in gold on the map and highlighted on the spreadsheet.

According to the Legislature’s data, it looks like SD's 20 and 21 were Landrieu 08 -> Vitter 15 districts. More evidence that the bayou area south of I-10 is going for good, despite good signs for Democrats elsewhere.

Let me know if anything seems off.

[smoltchanov]

Excellent, Miles! So, SD-35 may pretend to be the most conservative state Senate District in Louisiana? Not surprising that even such (formerly) conservative Democrat as Fannin had difficulties there. And with "D" letter after name he would surely lose...

Some further observations:

1. Almost all Edwards/Republican districts (all, except SD-27) are not far from either New Orlean or Baton Rouge, many of them - suburban.

2. Democrats must have good chances in SD-08, when Alario retires in 2019.  SD-17 and SD-27 - another matter. Both  Ward and Johns are formerly conservative Democrats, now - relatively "moderate" Republicans, both fit their districts, and may run for reelection. I would presume - under normal situation they will get reelected.

3. Democrats have only 3 relatively "difficult" seats in state Senate, with the most problematic in 2019, probably, being SD-28, because it will be open. Smith and, especially, Milkovich, have theoretically even more difficult districts, but both fits them well, and both may run for reelection...

4. Wish that Democratic candidate in SD-12 (formerly - Nevers district) would be able to copy JBE percentages there...

[Miles]

Excellent, Miles! So, SD-35 may pretend to be the most conservative state Senate District in Louisiana? Not surprising that even such (formerly) conservative Democrat as Fannin had difficulties there. And with "D" letter after name he would surely lose...

I probably would have voted for Cathey in SD35, even though he was likely more conservative. Fannin allegedly resorted to some really underhanded tactics, and rightfully got a fair amount of blowback.

[Miles]

Also for reference, here's 2008 Senate, and then the swing between 2008 and 2015:

[smoltchanov]

^ Even more thanks! And yes, coastal Louisiana, especially Lafourche and Terreborne parishes swung heavily Republican of recently, while many districts (especially suburban, i wouldn't imagine SD-06 going Democratic...) went other way. Quite recently SD-20, SD-21 and SD-26 elected a lot of Democrats, ranging from very conservative (Foster, Siracusa, Hoyt) via "pragmatic conservatives" (Chabert family, Dupre, "Butch" Gautreaux, Nick Gautreaux) to moderates (Robichaux). Even in special election in SD-26 in 2011 Democrat (conservative of course, but still - ..) almost won (Republican Perry essentially won only after it was discovered (and trumpeted  all over district) that one of Democratic candidate assistant's once worked for Obama - absolute no-no in districts like this..). No more. Probably - "pragmatic Republican conservative" like last Chabert is the best one can hope to in these districts (except on very local level, where i still expect some very conservative Democrats winning because of tradition)...

[smoltchanov]

Excellent, Miles! So, SD-35 may pretend to be the most conservative state Senate District in Louisiana? Not surprising that even such (formerly) conservative Democrat as Fannin had difficulties there. And with "D" letter after name he would surely lose...

I probably would have voted for Cathey in SD35, even though he was likely more conservative. Fannin allegedly resorted to some really underhanded tactics, and rightfully got a fair amount of blowback.

I understand that... But i simply tried to imagine Fannin (who, AFAIK, was the most conservative Democrat in Legislature before switching) running there as a Democrat. He would surely lose...

[ElectionsGuy]

Lots of gerrymandering in that map, but Edwards probably propelled some red-seat Democrats to victory.  Are there any instances where state senate Democrats actually outperformed Edwards in their districts (besides those running unopposed)?

While the district 20 area swung by far the most between the two elections, its not that surprising, considering how Republican they have gone in recent elections (~70%). I'm more surprised that parishes like Jefferson Davis and Allen voted for Edwards.

I wonder how white Catholics voted. Whites overall probably voted 37-38% for Edwards, but in some of those parishes Edwards may as well have won the white vote. I'm guessing 55-45 Vitter, while protestants were more like 75-25 Vitter.

[Miles]

Lots of gerrymandering in that map, but Edwards probably propelled some red-seat Democrats to victory.  Are there any instances where state senate Democrats actually outperformed Edwards in their districts (besides those running unopposed)?

Until I break down the House, we only have two examples to go by.

SD38 was interesting. Milkovich only did about 1% worse than Edwards. Milkovich ran 17% behind in DeSoto Parish but almost 4% ahead in Caddo:



And SD 12, which isn't as interesting - Edwards ran 29% ahead of Murphy:

[Maxwell]

My heart breaks for Mickey Murphy.

[Miles]

^ Yeah, I really wish he won.

I guess this is why Tony Perkins and Co. didn't support Edwards:

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[smoltchanov]

Miles (and other interested) - there is big discussion on DKE about JBE results by House districts. One can find it here:


http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2015/12/1/1452573/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-12-1#comments

The nick of a person, who claimed to do the math, is ProudNewEnglander, and there is a very interesting discusssion beteen him and (mostly) ArkDem14 there. Some results (author doesn't gives a link to his calculations):

Dem/Vitter:

Michael Danahay (District 33)

Dorothy Sue Hill (32)

James Armes (30)

Jack Montoucet (42)

Jerry Gisclair (54)

Best district for Vitter held by a Dem: District 54 (Lafourche)

-------------------------------------------

Rep/Edwards:

John Guinn (37)

Kenny Havard (62)

Stephen Frank Carter (68)

Erich Ponti (69)

Franklin Foil (70)

Clay Schexnayder (81)

Chris Broadwater (86)

Tom Wilmott (92)

Bryan Adams (85)

Ray Garofalo (103)

Chris Leopold (105)

Most Romney-favoring districts of the above: 37 & 86 (both voted 73% for Romney)

Above districts that voted >60% for Edwards: 62, 70, 105

I generally expected such pattern with Vitter winning in South-Western and/or Acadiana districts (especially - coastal or heavily white), while losing a lot of suburbs. And it confirms my hypothesis that a Democrats will have a very difficult time there in 2019, when a popular (and, frequently, relatively conservative) present white state legislators will be term-limited. Danahay, Hill and Gisclair districts were prime examples of that for me, but it seems there are more..

[Miles]

^ It looks like his numbers are off as he didn't factor in the early vote. Quite significant in some places, considering the early electorate was 8% more Democratic than the election day vote. He has SD6 going for Vitter while I have it for Edwards, for example.

Sadly, the early votes aren't allotted by precinct, so I run the same formula that DRA uses to apportion them - its about as accurate as it can get, IMO.

[smoltchanov]

^ It looks like his numbers are off as he didn't factor in the early vote. Quite significant in some places, considering the early electorate was 8% more Democratic than the election day vote. He has SD6 going for Vitter while I have it for Edwards, for example.

Sadly, the early votes aren't allotted by precinct, so I run the same formula that DRA uses to apportion them - its about as accurate as it can get, IMO.

Agree. And wait for YOUR results and numbers - i always believed them most...

[Miles]

I checked over his Vitter/Dem seats:

HD 30
JBE: 2714 (52.1%)
DV: 2500 (47.9%)

^ Turnout very low there - my guess is you have lots of military personnel at Fort Polk registered elsewhere.

HD32
JBE: 5374 (48.8%)
DV: 5628 (51.2%)

HD33
JBE: 3702 (46.8%)
DV: 4201 (53.2%)

HD42
JBE: 4488 (48.8%)
DV: 4718 (51.2%)

HD54
JBE: 3427 (37.5%)
DV: 5703 (62.5%)

Plus a few others:

HD13 (Old Fannin district.)
JBE: 5954 (46.4%)
DV: 6890 (53.6%)

HD42 (The other Acadia Parish seat that just flipped.)
JBE: 4586 (41.9%)
DV: 6347 (58.1%)

HD36 (I thought it might also be Edwards -> Rep.)
JBE: 5476 (48.3%)
DV: 5853 (51.7%)

I'll post the others on the list soon.

[smoltchanov]

^ So, Armes seat went, probably, JBE. Interesting and gives better hopes for 2019. Though still close, and republican swing is still noticeable. Gisclair's seat seems gone without him, other (Hill's, Danahay's, Montoucet's) - probably too, but there is a chance if Republicans fail at recruiting...

Old Fannin's seat surprised me somewhat - possibly, a conservative Democrat could flip it, but only really conservative (similar to what Fannin himself was as a Democrat)...

[Miles]

Yeah, if you don't factor in the early vote, Vitter would have carried HD30 by 4%.

Also, Edwards got 50.6% in the seat that Ortego lost. I wonder how it would have turned out if that race went to a runoff. Maybe he can win it back in 2019...

[smoltchanov]

Yeah, if you don't factor in the early vote, Vitter would have carried HD30 by 4%.

Also, Edwards got 50.6% in the seat that Ortego lost. I wonder how it would have turned out if that race went to a runoff. Maybe he can win it back in 2019...

May be. He is young and already battle-tested. But - it seems to me that (besides an obligatory in such districts pro-life position) he is a bit liberal (slightly left-of-center according to metrics i saw) for this district...

[Miles]

A few maps looking at the early vote.

Just the early vote:



Edwards won the early vote in Ouachita, Beauregard, Jackson and Cameron parishes but lost them overall. Vitter did so in St. Mary. Edwards was within a point of winning Acadia as well.

Just election-day vote:



Edwards won the election day vote in Richland and Plaquemines parishes, but lost them overall. Vitter did so in Lincoln and Jefferson parishes.

The swing between the early electorate and the election day voters:



Finally, the % of each parishes total votes that were cast early:



One thing of note is that Edwards still managed to carry Jefferson despite losing it on election day. It cast comparatively small number of early votes, only 17%. He got 56% of the early vote and lost it only narrowly on election day, taking 49.5%.

[Miles]

smoltchanov: ProudNewEnglander and I have chatted - he's revised his numbers and tells me they're almost identical to mine. I'll let him do the heavy lifting for the rest of the House districts. I want to break down the primary by LD, so I'll start on that instead.

[Del Tachi]

Excellent, Miles! So, SD-35 may pretend to be the most conservative state Senate District in Louisiana? Not surprising that even such (formerly) conservative Democrat as Fannin had difficulties there. And with "D" letter after name he would surely lose...

Some further observations:

1. Almost all Edwards/Republican districts (all, except SD-27) are not far from either New Orlean or Baton Rouge, many of them - suburban.

2. Democrats must have good chances in SD-08, when Alario retires in 2019.  SD-17 and SD-27 - another matter. Both  Ward and Johns are formerly conservative Democrats, now - relatively "moderate" Republicans, both fit their districts, and may run for reelection. I would presume - under normal situation they will get reelected.

3. Democrats have only 3 relatively "difficult" seats in state Senate, with the most problematic in 2019, probably, being SD-28, because it will be open. Smith and, especially, Milkovich, have theoretically even more difficult districts, but both fits them well, and both may run for reelection...

4. Wish that Democratic candidate in SD-12 (formerly - Nevers district) would be able to copy JBE percentages there...

Which is an illustration of the point that I've been trying to make for quite some time on the Forum that the resurrection of Democrats in the South is dependent on the voting-habits of upper-middle class, suburban Whites rather than racial minorities, the working poor or "Blue Dogs". 

For comparative purposes, here is how I think a "JBE-type" Democratic victory would occur in Mississippi



This map uses the scale that Miles uses in his maps, btw