Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[Tender Branson]

Turnout was 38.5%. It was raining in most of the state during the day, but still below estimates.

More like 33%.

In Louisiana, only 84% of the voting-age citizen population is registered to vote.

That's 2.894.500 of 3.448.200 persons.

553.700 who are 18+ and citizens are not registered to vote for some reason. A good 100.000 of them are in prison or on parole and therefore cannot vote.

If we adjust these figures, actual turnout comes in at only ~33%.

[Tender Branson]

What kind of breakdown will we see among Dardenne and Angelle supporters in the runoff? Edwards needs at least 30% or so to not vote for Vitter (either vote for him or stay home) to win.

Edwards seems conservative enough to attract a good junk of these voters to win the runoff.

I would be surprised if Vitter comes anywhere near a tie in the runoff ...

[Tender Branson]

Cook Political Report has updated the status to "tossup":

http://cookpolitical.com/story/8961

[Tender Branson]

Blacks made up 30% of early voters yesterday, the first day to vote early.

It was 26% in the first round early vote.

[Tender Branson]

Shouldn't the thread title be renamed "Welcome to the runoff" ?

@miles

[Tender Branson]

Early voting numbers could be slightly higher than in the runoff.

250.000 vs. 235.000 or something, but there are still 2 days to vote early so we'll know the final figures on Sunday/Monday.

Blacks make up 28% of the early vote so far vs. 27% in the jungle early vote.

[Tender Branson]

The final early-vote numbers:

Runoff: 257.000 (Blacks: 30%)
Jungle: 235.000 (Blacks: 27%)

[Tender Branson]

Edwards gets 39% of Whites in the RRH poll, which is roughly 2x what Obama and Landrieu got.

Edwards should be safe with anywhere above 33%, if Blacks make up 28-30% of the electorate.

But the terrorism card that Vitter plays now could make it closer than it appears. But I'm sticking with my 55-45 Edwards prediction for now.

[Tender Branson]

I might actually get up at 3am tomorrow (well, Sunday) night to watch this live after all ...

But I still believe Edwards is going to win (but by a closer margin of around 10%).

[Tender Branson]

Results pages:

https://voterportal.sos.la.gov/Graphical

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2015/by_state/LA_Governor_1121.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

[Tender Branson]

Final numbers with all precincts in:

Edwards: 646,860 (56.1%)
Vitter: 505,929 (43.9%)

Finally, excellent news !

My prediction was only off by 0.7% then:

55.4% Edwards (D)
44.6% Asshole (R)

This continues my trend of having better US predictions than Austrian election predictions ...

[Tender Branson]

Do we know the turnout yet?

Turnout was about 34%, looking at the final numbers from the SoS page.

Which means it's only up 1% from the already abysmal 33% turnout in the jungle primary.

[Tender Branson]

Isn't it disgusting that 2/3 voters do not care about deciding who's their next Governor ?

[Tender Branson]

^ I saw 39.7%. The SOS office projected 42%.

Well, both my turnout figure and yours/SOS are correct. It just depends what benchmark you are using. From 4 weeks ago:

Turnout was 38.5%. It was raining in most of the state during the day, but still below estimates.

More like 33%.

In Louisiana, only 84% of the voting-age citizen population is registered to vote.

That's 2.894.500 of 3.448.200 persons.

553.700 who are 18+ and citizens are not registered to vote for some reason. A good 100.000 of them are in prison or on parole and therefore cannot vote.

If we adjust these figures, actual turnout comes in at only ~33%.

[Tender Branson]

Also, I will earmark the pollster MRI when it comes to the Presidential polling next year in LA.

MRI was best and pretty damn close to the actual results in both the jungle and runoff.

While you can throw the other pollsters into the trashcan.