Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[RI]

Jefferson Parish coming in big for Vitter

[RI]

If Vitter maintains his margin in Jefferson, I can't see him not making the runoff.

[RI]

I think AoS just majorly messed up their map.

Edit: Fixed now

[RI]

Is there a particular reason the Dem did so awfully in the AG race?

[RI]

What kind of breakdown will we see among Dardenne and Angelle supporters in the runoff? Edwards needs at least 30% or so to not vote for Vitter (either vote for him or stay home) to win.

[RI]

This is definitely good news for Edwards, but I'm still getting serious Kansas 2014 vibes from this race. Many moderate Republicans in Kansas supported Paul Davis, but it still wasn't enough.

If Vitter holds Edwards under 50% in the final polling average, he's got a shot. However, I don't see that happening.

[RI]

^ He goes by "John Bel" as his first name.

The South is weird.

[RI]

Okay if Louisiana votes for that absolute scumbag Vitter over the man of true integrity and honesty John Bel Edwards because OOGILY BOOGILY BROWN PEOPLE then they no longer deserve the rights and privileges of this great Union and should be ejected immediately tbh. But I do believe that at least a slim majority of Louisianans will see through Vitter's slimy and desperate tactics and make the right choice (though the South hasn't given me much faith in that as of late...).

In what world are "integrity" and "honesty" more important than policy?  I'm sure there are a lot of Louisianans who think they are.  But really, sure, Edwards is considerably more right-wing than the national Democratic Party, but he's still either identical or to the left of Vitter on literally every issue. 

I'm going to be completely honest, I'm not really sure how any well-informed individual who cares about policy can be a split ticket voter in the context of the modern party system.  We don't live in a country where there are Democrats who are more conservative than Republicans.  Above the local level, literally every Democrat is to the left of literally every Republican.  If you vote for a Democrat, you are going to get considerably more liberal policy than if you vote for a Republican.  And yet, I'm sure that there will be thousands of Louisiana conservatives who will vote for Edwards later this month.  The same way that Massachusetts and Maryland liberals elected Baker and Hogan last year. 

So if Louisiana actually elects Edwards, my question will be, do these people just care that little about policy, or are these voters really that low information?

John Bel Edwards is hardly your standard Democrat. A one-issue typically-Republican pro-life voter, for example, has every reason in the world to vote for Edwards over Vitter.

[RI]

Fox8 calls it.

[RI]

Swing and Trend from Vitter's last election in 2010:

[RI]

Percent change in total vote, primary vs runoff

[RI]

Lt. Gov map



AG map

[RI]

How does the run-off map compare to the jungle primary with all Democrats added vs. all Republicans added?

They're not very comparable, really. In the primary, all Dems totaled 41.61% (463,222 votes) while in the general, the Dems totaled 56.11% (646,865 votes).