Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[Miles]

Article.

Well, if a Democrat doesn't win, I'm glad that this lessens the chance that that we'll be stuck with Vitter.

[Miles]

If it were just the two of them, I think the 2011 LG race would be a pretty good baseline. Dardenne won 53/47.



Vitter was pretty supportive of Nungesser.

Vitter would improve on Nungesser's performance in St. Tammany, Washington, Jefferson and Tanagipahoa parises, but he'd have less appeal in Acadiana.

Dardenne would probably lose some support, but he'd still probably pull  65%-ish in Greater Baton Rouge; he has a very dedicated base there.

The northern parishes would be swingier and would probably decide the winner. Factors like local endorsements would probably be most important there. Nungesser, of course, had no appeal up north, so Dardenne's margins in those parishes are inflated.

Overall, I'd probably give Vitter the edge, but very narrowly.

[Miles]

Southern Media and Opinion Research confirmed PPP's latest findings. They released numbers today putting Jindal at a rough 38% approval. Also, over 60% do not support his proposed tax reforms.

The articles I'm finding on this don't have a ton of specifics, so if anyone can find the actual release, please share it!

Dardenne and Vitter both have approvals "near 60%" as well. Looks like they won't have to worry about going of their way to distance themselves from Jindal. I'm also curious if the poll asked about approvals for Miss Mary.

[Miles]

Thanks! I just found that article from the Times-Picayune too; it was much better.

[Miles]

Yep, Dardenne/Vitter should be good:

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[Miles]

Politico is on to this race now:

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[Miles]

Could Mitch run for the US senate if Vitter runs for governor? After all, we would have the sister and the brother! If he's like his sister, Louisiana would gradly benefit from his service!

Yeah, that would be pretty neat. Vitter doesn't necessarily have to relinquish his Senate seat to run for Governor though, unless he actually wins.

[Miles]

Kip Holden sounds pretty intent on running for the open LG post in 2015.

Baton Rouge local politics never really interested me, but he's been a popular mayor.

[Miles]

I just found out I'll actually get to meet Dardenne in a few weeks, should be interesting!

No kidding. Good; he's been a pretty good LG.

[Miles]

LG candidates seem to all of the sudden be coming out of the woodwork. Most notably, Billy Nungesser, who Dardenne beat in 2011, is running again. Nungesser is quite a colorful figure, so the race should be good. Also, FWIW, Vitter backed him over Dardenne.

[Miles]

Maginnis on this contest:

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[Miles]

Without a Cajun candidate, I could see Vitter pulling in those voters. Gerald Long has a nice base in northern LA, but its mostly rural, I don't why he would perform particuarly well in the bigger cities up north.

I think Mayor Landrieu would wait to see how the R field develops first. Interetingly, as this blog points out, in 2007, he got more votes than Jindal.

[Miles]

Rodney Alexander might be looking into this race, too.

Geez, who isn't running for LA Governor these days!?

[Miles]

As for a possible Vitter-Dardenne runoff in 2015: there was a map posted earlier in this thread that said Vitter would win the areas Nungesser won in 2011.  I find it hard to believe that he'd be able to win Orleans, though, since Dardenne is much more moderate than Vitter.  If it was purely regional politics, then yes, Vitter might win Orleans.

Nungesser carried Orleans Parish and he was the more conservative candidate. These types of races are really regional.

[Miles]

Elbert Guillory may run for Governor, but not during this next cycle.

[Miles]

At a town hall Thursday, David Vitter said he would support a government shutdown rather than funding Obamacare and equated its supporters to freeloaders:

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Yikes.

[Miles]

PPP has Mayor Landrieu leading both Vitter and Dardenne:

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[Miles]

I'm very interested in knowing who these people are:

[Miles]

PPP finds Jindal to be the most unpopular GOP Governor in the county.

Three years ago, he was riding high at 58/34; thats now down to a painful 28/59.

[Miles]

A post on another thread by our hackish friend krazen prompted me to do some research.

Even when she was leaving office amidst the hurricane aftermath, Governor Blanco's approval was 39/58. 'Still better than where Jindal is now.

[Miles]

The DOJ is suing Louisiana over Jindal's voucher program:

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[Miles]

This never even crossed my mind before, but Shreveport pollster Elliott Stonecipher has some interesting ideas about this race:

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[Miles]

Guillory will be hosting Allen West later this month.

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[Miles]

Yup.

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If this guy runs for something, he will win, for better or worse.

[Miles]

Bill Nungesser (R-Plaquemines), one of the more, uh....outspoken...figures in LA politics is confirming a second run for the imminently-open LG.

He lost 53-47 to Dardenne in 2011.

Back in 2011, Nungesser very much became the face of local frustration with the BP oil spill.