Andrew Cuomo/Tim Kaine vs Jeb Bush/Rand Paul

[NewYorkExpress]

Who wins and why, With maps if possible... Also please give % of popular vote you think each ticket will receive.

[Lambsbread]

Cuomo/Kaine for me!

Cuomo/Kaine - 343
Bush/Paul - 195

[NHI]

Cuomo/Kaine: 329 (52%)
Bush/Paul: 209 (46%)

[CountryClassSF]

I believe Jeb Bush and Rand Paul would win in this scenario -- 285 to 253

Key assumptions:
-Obama fatigue

-Lower turnout amongst the blacks

-Lower turnout amongst the Latinos with higher GOP percentage

-Voter ID laws taking affect preventing voter fraud

-High GOP turnout/Paul libertarian types unifying

-Cuomo's gun views hurt him in the midwest and even in Kaine's Virginia

-Nader-like 3rd party gathers 4-5% of the vote nationally causing some states to tilt

[bballrox4717]

Narrow Cuomo win in the PV and electoral vote. Turnout is higher than expected because Democrats are terrified of another Bush presidency. Even if there is a 3rd party run nobody will vote for them in high enough numbers to swing the presidency. Nevada is the closest and Cuomo probably wouldn't even need Kaine to win Virginia.

To be completely honest if Jeb didn't have the last name Bush I would predict a win for him.

[CountryClassSF]

To be completely honest if Jeb didn't have the last name Bush I would predict a win for him.

Do you really think Jeb would lose his home state even if under extreme high Democrat turnout like in 2012 Romney and Obama were less than a point apart?

[Lambsbread]

I believe Jeb Bush and Rand Paul would win in this scenario -- 285 to 253

Key assumptions:
-Obama fatigue

-Lower turnout amongst the blacks

-Lower turnout amongst the Latinos with higher GOP percentage

-Voter ID laws taking affect preventing voter fraud

-High GOP turnout/Paul libertarian types unifying

-Cuomo's gun views hurt him in the midwest and even in Kaine's Virginia

-Nader-like 3rd party gathers 4-5% of the vote nationally causing some states to tilt

Before u say u know how to election, lemme explain u a thing

1. Seems like Reagan fatigue worked out real well for the GOP in 1992!

2. "Lower turnout amongst the blacks" will not effect much, as "the black vote" is not what propelled Obama to victory in 2008 or 2012.

3. That's a bad thing for the GOP???

4. That's just a downright stupid statement and I will not justify it with a response.

5. Paultards will split, as they would never vote for anyone related to George W. Bush.

6. Single issues do not effect entire states.

7. We said the same thing in 2012 about Johnson/Stein/Anderson/etc. Nothing happened.

[bballrox4717]

To be completely honest if Jeb didn't have the last name Bush I would predict a win for him.

Do you really think Jeb would lose his home state even if under extreme high Democrat turnout like in 2012 Romney and Obama were less than a point apart?

I never said that Bush would lose Florida in a presidential election. I have it going Republican in the map I posted.

[pbrower2a]

I believe Jeb Bush and Rand Paul would win in this scenario -- 285 to 253

Key assumptions:
-Obama fatigue

-Lower turnout amongst the blacks

-Lower turnout amongst the Latinos with higher GOP percentage

-Voter ID laws taking affect preventing voter fraud

-High GOP turnout/Paul libertarian types unifying

-Cuomo's gun views hurt him in the midwest and even in Kaine's Virginia

-Nader-like 3rd party gathers 4-5% of the vote nationally causing some states to tilt

1. If there is going to be any fatigue, it will be against the Tea Party types.  Republicans will not be able to get away fast enough from their troublesome positions fast enough.

2. Barack Obama did not run on an anti-poverty agenda -- perhaps because he could not get away with it. The Democratic nominee of 2016 will have more freedom to attack poverty as a political appeal.

3. "We gotta get better 'cause we can't get worse!" Voting habits among middle-class Latinos are already solidifying. You ain't getting Joe Hardy.

4. If there is vote fraud, it will be where it usually appears -- in the administration of the vote from registration to device tampering to misreporting of the vote.

5. The GOP depends upon a coalition of corporatists and the Religious Right (basically the Hezbollah coalition in a Muslim country). The libertarians and the anti-intellectual Christian fundamentalists could just as easily start turning against each other.

6. Sport hunters will know that they are safe from gun confiscation. They can get through the bureaucratic hoops that Obama gun laws will create. They already have to get hunting licenses. The proposed gun laws say nothing about concealed-carry laws, concealed-carry laws causing fear in criminals.

I'll give you Florida, but not Ohio or Virginia. The Favorite Son effect is as real in Virginia as in Florida. Colorado not going for the Democrat? Recent polls showed tighter gun laws very popular in Colorado.

7. Not likely.  

Cuomo/Kaine 304
Bush/Paul  224

[BluegrassBlueVote]

To be completely honest if Jeb didn't have the last name Bush I would predict a win for him.

But Jeb owes his career (and the continued speculation his candidacy) to his last name.

[Link]

-Voter ID laws taking affect preventing voter fraud

I can pinpoint the exact moment you and your predictions lost all credibility.

Bye.

[TDAS04]

Cuomo/Kaine would probably win.

I don't see how Kaine helps Cuomo, however.  Both are white Catholics.  Kaine is boring (as is Warner).  Virginia would probably go Democratic anyway, the way it's trending.

[bballrox4717]

To be completely honest if Jeb didn't have the last name Bush I would predict a win for him.

But Jeb owes his career (and the continued speculation his candidacy) to his last name.

And his name is the exact reason why he won't be president. My comment was more of a shot on Cuomo than anything, I love his performance as governor but he's a poor national candidate.

[Michaelf7777777]

Andrew Cuomo/ Tim Kaine - 270 EV's
Jeb Bush/ Rand Paul - 268 EV's

[Lincoln Republican]

A Cuomo Presidential candidacy is a fantasy.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Sounds like a good election for a liberal 3rd party.

[Mister Mets]

Bush would have the edge, but it would be a close election.

Tim Kaine's a solid running mate. He has a good resume, experience with the media and helps in a key swing state. It would be a two white guys ticket against a two white guys ticket. That might leave openings for third-party tickets to get enough of the vote to make a difference, although Jeb should appeal to his brother's socially conservative base, while Rand should get the libertarians.

Just as George W Bush was happy running against the son of a senator, Jeb would be happy running against the son of a governor/ DNC keynote speaker.

[CountryClassSF]

Bush would have the edge, but it would be a close election.

Tim Kaine's a solid running mate. He has a good resume, experience with the media and helps in a key swing state. It would be a two white guys ticket against a two white guys ticket. That might leave openings for third-party tickets to get enough of the vote to make a difference, although Jeb should appeal to his brother's socially conservative base, while Rand should get the libertarians.

Just as George W Bush was happy running against the son of a senator, Jeb would be happy running against the son of a governor/ DNC keynote speaker.

Meh. I can't understand the appeal of Tim Kaine.  The guy used to be a social conservative  -- became chairman of the DNC for supporting Hussein over Hillary, gave a terrible SOTU response to Bush in 05.  I'll never get that.

I'd actually be OK with a Bush/Paul ticket. A good balance of Tea Party & compassionate conservatism. The base and the moderates would turn out for it

[BluegrassBlueVote]

Bush would have the edge, but it would be a close election.

Tim Kaine's a solid running mate. He has a good resume, experience with the media and helps in a key swing state. It would be a two white guys ticket against a two white guys ticket. That might leave openings for third-party tickets to get enough of the vote to make a difference, although Jeb should appeal to his brother's socially conservative base, while Rand should get the libertarians.

Just as George W Bush was happy running against the son of a senator, Jeb would be happy running against the son of a governor/ DNC keynote speaker.

Meh. I can't understand the appeal of Tim Kaine.  The guy used to be a social conservative  -- became chairman of the DNC for supporting Hussein over Hillary, gave a terrible SOTU response to Bush in 05.  I'll never get that.

I'd actually be OK with a Bush/Paul ticket. A good balance of Tea Party & compassionate conservatism. The base and the moderates would turn out for it

Impressed you didn't manage to fit "RINO" into this post. Hussein was a nice touch, though.

[Liberalrocks]

Bush would have the edge, but it would be a close election.

Tim Kaine's a solid running mate. He has a good resume, experience with the media and helps in a key swing state. It would be a two white guys ticket against a two white guys ticket. That might leave openings for third-party tickets to get enough of the vote to make a difference, although Jeb should appeal to his brother's socially conservative base, while Rand should get the libertarians.

Just as George W Bush was happy running against the son of a senator, Jeb would be happy running against the son of a governor/ DNC keynote speaker.

Meh. I can't understand the appeal of Tim Kaine.  The guy used to be a social conservative  -- became chairman of the DNC for supporting Hussein over Hillary, gave a terrible SOTU response to Bush in 05.  I'll never get that.

I'd actually be OK with a Bush/Paul ticket. A good balance of Tea Party & compassionate conservatism. The base and the moderates would turn out for it

Impressed you didn't manage to fit "RINO" into this post. Hussein was a nice touch, though.

[Mister Mets]

Bush would have the edge, but it would be a close election.

Tim Kaine's a solid running mate. He has a good resume, experience with the media and helps in a key swing state. It would be a two white guys ticket against a two white guys ticket. That might leave openings for third-party tickets to get enough of the vote to make a difference, although Jeb should appeal to his brother's socially conservative base, while Rand should get the libertarians.

Just as George W Bush was happy running against the son of a senator, Jeb would be happy running against the son of a governor/ DNC keynote speaker.

Meh. I can't understand the appeal of Tim Kaine.  The guy used to be a social conservative  -- became chairman of the DNC for supporting Hussein over Hillary, gave a terrible SOTU response to Bush in 05.  I'll never get that.

I'd actually be OK with a Bush/Paul ticket. A good balance of Tea Party & compassionate conservatism. The base and the moderates would turn out for it

Kaine has a good resume, as a Governor turned Senator.

He is familiar to the media, and used to the national spotlight.

He has won three statewide elections in an important swing state against credible opponents.

And he was Lieutenant Governor for four years, so he's used to being a #2.

And he's a white guy with unique appeal to others. Fluent in Spanish, married to a former judge, and with a legal background specializing in representing people who had been denied housing opportunities because of their race or disability.

[Zarn]

A Bush and a Paul on the same ticket?

[MadmanMotley]

A Bush and a Paul on the same ticket?

This.