EP elections 2014

[Ethelberth]

These are the present projections on next European parliament election.


EPP Present 271 , Future 219

The obvious areas of loosing seats are Italy, Romania, Spain, Hungary and Poland.


PSE Present 190, Future 200.

The biggest gains are in UK. PASOK and PSOE will loose seats, otherwise no big changes.

ALDE Present 85, Future 72

The biggest loose will happen in Italy, where there will be no ALDE deputies.

Greens Present 51, Future 59

The biggest gains are in Belgium (if N-VA remains in that particular group). Final results depends on  French greens, that are difficult to predict on EP level.

Conservatives, Present 51, Future 54

This groups may have new members (eg. Freie Wähler in Germany, Stornach in Austria, OLANE i Slovakia. On the other hand, they will loose seats in Hungary and Belgium and Czech republic).

EFD, Present 34, Future 28
The UKIP, the True Finns and DF will keep their seats. The Lega will loose. Some parties will dissapear (e.g. SNS). The big question is, whether the new electoral law in Germany without threshold, allow some groups join the group.


The left, Present 34, Future 58

This is one of the winner. Syriza, and IU will winn largely. Italy may be represented in this group. In Netherland, France, Finland and Denmark they will propably gain seats.


The extreme Right Present 17, the next parliament 28.

The new countries in this group are Sweden, Greece and Germany. They may loose seats in Romania. In general there are allway possible, that they are inable to form the group and some of the parties will join EFD groups.


The other Present 5 future 5

DUP and PVV will remain unallied.


The anarchistic and anti-establishment semi left wing parties. Present 5 in Future 36.

If Grillo, UPYD, various Pirate parties and the new Slovenian party will ally in the parliament, they could easilly form a group. Grillo movement it self gets 20 seats that is close to the potential to form own group in parliament.
 
   
                                 
   P   S   L   K   V   G   R   E   O   X   
AT   4   5   0   2   0   3   0   0   4   0   18
BE   4   5   3   0   1   7   0   0   1   0   21
BU   7   6   3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   17
CY   2   2   0   0   2   0   0   0   0   0   6
CZ   5   10   0   3   3   0   0   0   0   0   21
DE   35   25   4   4   7   17   0   2   2   0   96
DK   1   2   5   0   2   1   0   2   0   0   13
EE   1   2   3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   6
ES   19   17   3   0   8   2   5   0   0   0   54
FI   3   2   3   0   1   2   0   2   0   0   13
FR   24   17   4   1   8   10   1   1   8   0   74
HE   6   1   0   0   9   1   0   1   3   0   21
HR   4   5   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   11
HU   10   5   2   0   0   1   0   0   3   0   21
IR   3   2   3   0   3   0   0   0   0   0   11
IT   28   19   0   0   3   0   20   3   0   0   73
LT   2   2   3   1   0   0   1   2   0   0   11
LU   3   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   6
LV   4   2   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   8
MT   2   4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   6
NL   2   5   9   1   4   1   0   0   0   4   26
PL   20   8   3   17   0   0   0   3   0   0   51
PT   8   8   0   0   5   0   0   0   0   0   21
RO   9   9   8   0   0   0   4   0   2   0   32
SE   6   6   3   0   1   2   0   0   2   0   20
SI   3   2   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   8
SK   3   7   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   13
UK   0   25   7   21   1   5   0   12   1   1   73
   218   204   72   53   58   52   33   28   28   5   751

[Tender Branson]

Early predictions:

* Turnout will drop significantly in most countries, because of anti-EU sentiment

There have been no polls about the EU elections here in Austria, but I think:

* Hans-Peter Martin's list will lose significantly
* Greens will increase their support significantly
* Team Stronach, if they run, will mostly gain from HPM's list and from the FPÖ, while the SPÖ and ÖVP will remain stable (maybe some losses)
* The BZÖ might not run or will get a very low result

Turnout here could drop to as low as 25-35%.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Turnout in France is gonna be nightmarish. It was already abysmal back in 2009, and it can only go down from there...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hopefully the European left can recover somewhat from 2009's disaster and gain some leverage on EU policies. Won't change much, but still.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If things stay as they are right now, the Tory vote will probably halve from 2009 and the Greens might finish ahead of the LibDems.

[ObserverIE]

Difficult to tell in Ireland at the moment because the loss of a seat will require the constituency boundaries (currently four 3-seat constituencies) to be rejigged.

At a guess, I think the result might look something like this:

FG (EPP) 3 (-1)
FF (ALDE) 3 (-)
SF (EUL/NGL) 3 (+3)
Harkin Ind/ALDE 1 (-)

with the last seat in Greater Dublin being a battle between Lab (S&D) currently with 3 seats, and SP (EUL/NGL) currently with 1.

Norn Iron will remain unchanged.

[Franknburger]

A prediction for Germany:

First, let's have a look at the differences between the 2009 EP and federal elections:

                           EP                  Fed               Diff.
CDU / CSU          37.9               33.8              -4.1
SPD                    20.8               23.0              +2.2
FDP                    11.0               14.6              +3.6
Grüne, BP           12.3               10.8              -1.5
Linke                   7.9                11.9              +4.0

FW, REP,ödp      3.5                   0.7               -2.8
NPD, DVU           0.4                   1.6              +1.2
Piraten, Tier       2.0                   2.6              +0.6
Others*             4,2                   1.0              -3.2

Others include (parties for) Family, Seniors, 50+, Bible-true Christians, etc.

So we should in general expect underperformance of current polling for SPD & Linke (lower turnout, more votes for small parties), CDU gaining at the expense of FDP (no loan votes for EU parliament), over-performance of Greens (strong-turnout voters), and right / extreme-right and smaller other parties.

I furthermore expect FW to take up quite some euro-sceptic votes, primarily from CDU / CSU, which will contain the Pirate vote. The far-right vote will still be depressed by the NSU terrorism issue.

As such, here is my prediction (current polling in brackets):

CDU / CSU  (40)                38   38 seats
SPD (27)                           24   24 seats
Grüne (15)                        17   17 seats
Linke (7)                             5    4-5 seats (depends on others/ far-right)
FDP (5)                               2    2 seats

FW  (1-2)                            5   5 seats
Far Right                             2   2 seats if joint NPD / DVU list, otherwise 1 seat
Pirates (2-3)                       3   2 Seats Pirates, 1 Seat Tierschutz (animal rights)
Others                                4   1 Seat Family, 1 Seat Pensioners                                

[ERvND]

As such, here is my prediction (current polling in brackets):

CDU / CSU  (40)                38   38 seats
SPD (27)                           24   24 seats
Grüne (15)                        17   17 seats
Linke (7)                             5    4-5 seats (depends on others/ far-right)
FDP (5)                               2    2 seats

FW  (1-2)                            5   5 seats
Far Right                             2   2 seats if joint NPD / DVU list, otherwise 1 seat
Pirates (2-3)                       3   2 Seats Pirates, 1 Seat Tierschutz (animal rights)
Others                                4   1 Seat Family, 1 Seat Pensioners                                

I see the FDP at 5 seats at least, FW at 2-3. Otherwise, this prediction looks plausible.

Of course, we don't know if the new Euro-sceptic "Alternative für Deutschland" will gain some traction until 2014. In this case, the picture could look quite differently.

[Franknburger]

I see the FDP at 5 seats at least, FW at 2-3. Otherwise, this prediction looks plausible.

Of course, we don't know if the new Euro-sceptic "Alternative für Deutschland" will gain some traction until 2014. In this case, the picture could look quite differently.

Current FDP polling is around 2%. Most pollsters "add in" CDU loan votes and show the FDP at 5%. Without the 5% threshold, we will most likely not see such loan votes for the EP.

However, I agree that it is in general a bit early for projections now. The federal election in autumn will completely change the situation, probably putting the SPD in government and the FDP in opposition, which may help the FDP to regain some strength on the expense of the governing coalition.

[Leftbehind]

     P     S     L     K     V     G     R     E     O     X      

P - EPP
S - S&D
L - ALDE
K - ECR
V - GUE-NGL
G - Green-EFA
R
E - EFD
O
X

?

[Niemeyerite]

UPyD and Grillo have nothing in common.

[Jens]

My guess in Denmark (based on absolutely no polling)

A - Soc.Dem (PES) 3 (-1)
B - Soc.Lib  (ALDE) 1 (+1)
C - Con.       (EPP)  0 (-1)
F - SF            (EGP) 1 (-1)
I - LA             (?)     0
N - Peo.Mov  (GUE) 1 (0)
O - DF           (EFD)  2 (0)
V - Venstre  (ALDE) 5 (+2)

But things could go significantly different. SD could easily loose another mandate. C and SF is very hard to predict because they are struggling pollwise but both have well known frontrunners. Enhedslisten might run on its on list, which probably would kill People's Movement. Liberal Alliance might be able to gather the anti-EU rightwing vote, but they need a strong frontrunner. Venstre is looking really strong in national poolings, but they removed their strong frontrunner, Jens Rohde from the list do to internal struggle, so right now they are running nobodies

[Diouf]

My guess in Denmark (based on absolutely no polling)

A - Soc.Dem (PES) 3 (-1)
B - Soc.Lib  (ALDE) 1 (+1)
C - Con.       (EPP)  0 (-1)
F - SF            (EGP) 1 (-1)
I - LA             (?)     0
N - Peo.Mov  (GUE) 1 (0)
O - DF           (EFD)  2 (0)
V - Venstre  (ALDE) 5 (+2)

But things could go significantly different. SD could easily loose another mandate. C and SF is very hard to predict because they are struggling pollwise but both have well known frontrunners. Enhedslisten might run on its on list, which probably would kill People's Movement. Liberal Alliance might be able to gather the anti-EU rightwing vote, but they need a strong frontrunner. Venstre is looking really strong in national poolings, but they removed their strong frontrunner, Jens Rohde from the list do to internal struggle, so right now they are running nobodies

It's indeed quite difficult to predict how much Venstre will gain, and how well the Eurosceptic parties will do. I don't think Rohde is that strong, he only received the fifth-highest number of personal votes at the 2009 election, so I don't think that will hurt them too much. I would probably predict Venstre to get 4, but the question is where the remaining seat will go then. It depends a fair bit on the electoral alliances. At the last EP election Liberal Alliance was very positive towards the EU and in an alliance with Venstre and the Conservatives, but in their new Eurosceptic cover I doubt whether that alliance will remain in place. This could maybe help Bendt Bendtsen retain his Conservative seat even if the LA receives more votes. Also  he is still quite popular unlike most of the Conservatives leaders in the Danish parliament, so some Venstre voters could easily vote for him. If the seat doesn't go to the Conservatives, it could go to the People's movement/Enhedslisten, if the latter can keep up its current polling.

[RodPresident]

Berlusconi can bring PDL to ECR only to deprive EPP of a plurality (corrected).

[Leftbehind]

Cheers Ethelberth. Although, your editing of the OP has now messed up some of the formatting in your table (you could see its proper formatting while posting if you quoted it, but not any longer).

Berlusconi can bring PDL to EPP only to deprive them of majority.

PDL are already in EPP, no?

[freek]

My prediction for the Dutch seats: 26 in total.

2014 (compared to 2009, also 26 seats):
VVD 4 (+1)
PVV 4 (-1)
SP 3 (+1)
CDA 3 (-2)
D66 3 (0)
PvdA 3 (0)
50PLUS 2 (new)
CU/SGP 2 (0)
GrLinks 1 (-2)
PvdD 1 (new)

This is based on a few assumptions:
- CU/SGP participating as 1 list. After the 2009 elections, CU & SGP stopped co-operating after CU joined the ECR, and SGP was refused. CU has enough votes for 1.5 seats, SGP for 0.5 seat.
- Both GroenLinks and PvdD reaching the electoral threshold of 3.85%.
- Dutch opinion polls are highly volatile. At the moment 50PLUS is polling over 10%, and the PvdA/VVD coalition is at 27%.

[Insula Dei]

It is sort of ironic that a massive victory for the right in Belgium would translate into an increase in the size of the Green fraction. Never ceases to amaze, that particular affiliation.

[Lasitten]

The elections in Finland are going to be interesting. What happens to the support of the eurosceptic True Finns and how many seats the other big three are going to lose to them. I don't believe that True Finns are going to make an alliance with the Christian Democrats this time so they're going to lose their only seat. I don't predict that there's going to big changes in the Finnish elections.

My prediction for Finland:
National Coalition party (EPP) 3 (0)
Social Democrats (S&D) 2 (0)
The Center party (ALDE) 2 (-1)
The True Finns (EFD) 2 (+1)
Green League (Greens/EFA) 2 (0)
Swedish People Party (ALDE) 1 (0)
Left Alliance (GUE/NGL) 1 (+1)
Christian Democrats 0 (-1)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It is sort of ironic that a massive victory for the right in Belgium would translate into an increase in the size of the Green fraction. Never ceases to amaze, that particular affiliation.

Appropriate given, you know, Belgium. No offense.

[Zanas]

The left, Present 34, Future 58

This is one of the winner. Syriza, and IU will winn largely. Italy may be represented in this group. In Netherland, France, Finland and Denmark they will propably gain seats.

Never assume the left is going to win seats. Nearly never happens.

Syriza will win, yes.
IU should gain, but not so much, they had 3.9 %, they could poll 7 or 8 this time around and end up with 4 or 5 seats instead of 2.
In the Netherlands, SP will most probably stay the same.
In France, depends a lot if we keep those crappy interregional constituencies or not. There are talks these days on whether we will or not. Turnout will also depend on this I guess. If we come back to a single national constituency, more celebrities will be on the top of the several lists, and it could draw a bit more media attention. The Left Front result will certainly not be better than last time if we keep several constituencies, may even drop 1 or 2, but if we have a single one we could go up to 6 or 7 from 5.
I don't know about Scandinavia yet.

Predictions on turnout in France :
-interregional constituencies : 29 %
-single national constituency : 35 %

[Hash]

Unless something changed on this again, the PS has rejected (or maybe 'delayed' as seems to be the case with most of their reforms) switching back to a single national constituency (even if PRG and EELV wanted one). I guess we're stuck with these monstrosities for another go through.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Unless something changed on this again, the PS has rejected (or maybe 'delayed' as seems to be the case with most of their reforms) switching back to a single national constituency (even if PRG and EELV wanted one). I guess we're stuck with these monstrosities for another go through.

Damn it.

[Velasco]

UPyD and Grillo have nothing in common.

I think Toni Cantó has the potential to become in our Grillo.

[Diouf]

Spanish poll for the EP election:

Partido Popular 29.6 % 17 seats
Partido Socialista Obrero Español 26.7 % 16 seats
Izquierda Unida + Iniciativa per Catalunya Verds + other left parties 11.0 % 6 seats
Autonomous parties ? % 6 seats
Unión Progreso y Democracia 9.0 % 5 seats

The turnout is predicted to be 37.4 %, down from 44.90 % last time.

The poll is made on the (wrong) assumption that Spain only has 50 seats like in 2009, while in fact it has 54 seats.

[Velasco]

Where did you find that poll, Diouf? Maybe I could comment it if I know the source