EP elections 2014

[Leftbehind]

Awesome.

[FredLindq]

We know that CC Will join CiU and PNV. But there are more options for ERC, BNG and Aralar like Equo etc And Will the Valencian regionalist switch from CiU led alliance to an ERC led?!

[Lasitten]

A 4 % treshold in Italy would imply that only six parties migh get seats. Were three off them ar close to the threshold (SC, SEL and LN).
PD 28%
PDL 26%
M5 17%
SC (Monti) 6%
SEL 5%
LN  5%

What is going to happen to the SEL now they're broken their ties with PD. Are they going to run on their own or is it possible that they're going to go back to alliance with CR?

[Zanas]

If by CR you mean the center-right, SEL isn't anywhere near making alliance with them. An ecologist group led by a gay communist doesn't usually do that...

edit : I realise you may have been talking about Civic Revolution instead. If so, I don't know.

[Lasitten]

edit : I realise you may have been talking about Civic Revolution instead. If so, I don't know.

Yep, sorry I was unclear.

I am also interested about the question of parliamentary group in the case that SEL gets MEP(s). Now that they're not going to be in alliance with PD I guess that they're going to sit in the GUE/NGL-group?

[FredLindq]

I predict that SEL will join EUL.

[Diouf]

New YouGov poll Britain, commissioned by LSE and the Electoral Reform Society

Labour 30 %
UKIP 25 %
Conservatives 23 %
Greens 12 %
Lib Dems 10 %

The poll asked the same people how they would vote in an open-list system, where they could vote directly for e.g. a Conservative Eurosceptic. In that case the outcome was:

Labour 31 %
Conservatives 28 %
UKIP 19 %
Lib Dems 12 %
Greens 10 %

[Leftbehind]

12% Green.

Edit: ah, just realised they've only given those five possible options.

[Zanas]

Is open-list really in the wind in UK for next year's election ?

And what kind of horrible poll doesn't include an "others" option ?

[Leftbehind]

Is open-list really in the wind in UK for next year's election ?

And what kind of horrible poll doesn't include an "others" option ?

Nah, ERS is a pressure group with very few allies among the political class.

It's not really a poll to measure support, as it is to measure the difference in support between open/closed list.

[Diouf]

Sociopol poll for Romania. At the 2009 election Romania had 33 seats, in 2014 it will have 32.

Partidul Social Democrat (PSD) 39 % 15 seats (+4) PES/S&D
Partidul Naţional Liberal (PNL) 20 %  7 (+2) ALDE
Partidul Democrat Liberal (PDL) 17 % 6 (-4) EPP
Partidul Poporului – Dan Diaconescu (PP-DD) 7 % 2 (new) ?^
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (UDMR) 6 % 2 (-1) EPP
Others 11 % 0 (-4)*

The Partidul Conservator (PC) which won one seat in 2009 when it ran with PSD and has been in the S&D group, is expected to run with the PNL as the two parties have created a centre-right alliance. PC could probably get 1 of the 7 seats which will follow PNL into ALDE.

^Dan Diaconescu is a former TV presenter and his party is described as socialist, nationalist and Eurosceptic. The party has apparently joined EUDemocrats, an alliance of Eurosceptic parties. I reckon the most likely group for it to join is the GUE-NGL. In the 2012 national election the party won 11.5 % and several seats in both houses. However, the party has had massive internal disputes and several senators and deputies have left the party.

*Last time Elena Băsescu, daughter of president Traian Băsescu, ran on her own and won a seat with 4.22 % of the vote. She has since rejoined PDL, and will probably run for them if she goes for another term.
The ultra-nationalist and rather anti-Hungarian Partidul România Mare won three seats and 8.65 % of the votes in 2009. The three MEPs are non-inscrits. The party has faded to irrelevance lately and only obtained 1.47 % and no seats in the 2012 national election, so in this poll it is included in others.

[Leftbehind]

^Dan Diaconescu is a former TV presenter and his party is described as socialist, nationalist and Eurosceptic. The party has apparently joined EUDemocrats, an alliance of Eurosceptic parties. I reckon the most likely group for it to join is the GUE-NGL. In the 2012 national election the party won 11.5 % and several seats in both houses. However, the party has had massive internal disputes and several senators and deputies have left the party.

Interesting. What type of nationalism are we talking here?

[Nhoj]

English Wiki says they have aligned with EUD.

[Diouf]

I have found a longer description on Cristian Nocorels blog. He is a doctoral candidate of Political and Economic studies according to the homepage. Unsurprisingly, he believes that the party has largely attracted former PRM voters.

"A new political presence that seems to have taken mainstream Romanian politics by storm and establish itself as the third largest party is the People's Party-Dan Diaconescu (PP-DD/ Partidul Poporului Dan Diaconescu). The PP-DD polled 9.23% for presidents of county councils; 7.29% for mayors; 8.96% for members of county councils in the local elections in June 2012. The PP-DD is the product of eponymous TV-channel owner Dan Diaconescu. Diaconescu, more or less single-handedly, has founded the party and created its nation-wide network of branches. At a quick glance, the PP-DD appears to have a rather complex ideological makeup, displaying strong populist appeals, such as social justice to be undertaken in the framework of a strong state (which reminds of the former communist state); trial of all previous governments found to have mismanaged the country; confiscation of illicit fortunes gained from pillaging the public goods, but also some surprising stances, decidedly right wing neoliberal, such as tax cuts, and tax simplification. All these are tinged with discrete nationalist appeals (the numerous and insistent references to supporting “Romanianism”, respecting the Romanian national anthem, subscription to Romanian Orthodox Christianity, etc.).

Inspected more closely, however, the PP-DD political agenda displays strong similarities with that of the consecrated radical right populist (RRM) party in Romania, namely the Greater Romania Party (PRM/ Partidul România Mare). In particular, it is reminiscent of the PRM successful political campaign in the 2000 parliamentary and presidential elections, as it were personified by the party leader Corneliu Vadim Tudor. Another similarity lies in that the PP-DD candidates had their candidacy endorsed “on air” at the TV station owned by Diaconescu (OTV). This comes to strengthen the classification of the PP-DD as an emerging radical right populist party, with a strong (male) leader that gives his formal ‘blessing’ to his acolytes live on TV. In this light, if in 2000 Tudor had a very influential weekly magazine at his disposal to maneuver his captive electorate, in 2012 Diaconescu has taken the process to a new level, having his own TV station. It is worth mentioning that the PRM appears to have lost most of its raison d’être, with Tudor comfortably enjoying the perks of being a Romanian representative in the European Parliament (EMP), thereby away from the forefront of Romanian national politics and the party’s rank and file left in a profound disarray as a direct consequence of his absence."

Link to blog: http://www.norocel.eu/

[Leftbehind]

Thanks. Disappointing, but then I shouldn't really have expected any better.

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ, the FN, the PVV and the Sweden Democrats might launch a joint election platform (or, if not, a parliamentary group later):

http://derstandard.at/1381369620792/FPOe-sucht-Bund-mit-Rechtsparteien-aber-ohne-Jobbik

Looks like they invited the UKIP as well, but they don't really want to.

FPÖ and FN rule out a co-operation with Jobbik though.

Let's see where this is going ... (this was proposed before, but nothing really happened).

[Leftbehind]

Just being secular liberals, honest, guv! [/PVV]

[Tender Branson]

Here's the article:

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/10400740/Frances-FN-to-team-up-with-other-far-Right-parties-for-European-elections.html

Apparently FN, FPÖ, Vlaams Belang and Sweden Democrats are already in, while they are in talks with the PVV.

Jobbik, Golden Dawn and the BNP are not invited (too radical).

The UKIP has declined, and Marine LePen disses Nigel Farage:

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[Tender Branson]

Will be interesting to see if they can convince other parties to join the alliance:

* Lega Nord (Italy)
* True Finns (Finland)
* DF (Denmark)
* Ataka (Bulgaria)
* SNS (Slovakia)
* SNS (Slovenia)

Maybe the AfD in Germany ...

[Tender Branson]

Map showing the possible setup of the Far Right Alliance next year:



Dark Blue: already in

Netherlands-Blue: in talks

Light blue: maybe

Red: Out, too radical, not invited

Green: Other EU countries with either no far-right party, or not enough info

[FredLindq]

I am sure that the German AFD not will join. They have talked to  Camreeon so I think they will join ECR or possible the EFD.

The True Fins and Dansk Folkeparti might join if the EFD collapses. Same with the Lithuanian Order and Justice (TT) which you forgot.

[FredLindq]

You also forgot PRM and somewhat PPDD in Romania. The first one is to radical and latter one might join the EFD.

[Beezer]

Will be interesting to see if they can convince other parties to join the alliance:

* Lega Nord (Italy)
* True Finns (Finland)
* DF (Denmark)
* Ataka (Bulgaria)
* SNS (Slovakia)
* SNS (Slovenia)

Maybe the AfD in Germany ...

I can't see the AfD ever joining that group since it would be political suicide. They already were portrayed as right-wing thugs by some in the media ahead of the German elections so I can't imagine what would happen to them if they joined forces with the FN, Ataka, and other far-right outfits.

[Diouf]

Not surprisingly, Martin Schulz from SPD, has today been named PES candidate designate for President of the European Commission. He will be ratified as their candidate on the PES Election Congress 1 March 2013.

The Party of the European Left have nominated Alexis Tsipras from SYRIZA as their candidate, and he is expected to be confirmed on their congress in mid-December.

The green primaries are to begin in a few dates, and six candidates will fight to be the two front-runners. José Bové from Europe Écologie, Rebecca Harms and Ska Keller from die Grüne in Germany, Ulrike Lunacek from the Austrian die Grünen, Monica Frassoni from Federazione dei Verdi and Joland Verburg from the small Dutch party de Groenen.

ALDE will open for nominations at their London congress in late November, and then elect their candidate at 1 February in Brussels.

The EPP seems to be internally divided about whether it is even to run a candiate. Angela Merkel has come out against it recently.

The (A)ECR and MELD (EFD) has not mentioned anything about a common candidate yet, and it is probably unlikely that they will elect one.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The green primaries are to begin in a few dates, and six candidates will fight to be the two front-runners. José Bové from Europe Écologie, Rebecca Harms and Ska Keller from die Grüne in Germany, Ulrike Lunacek from the Austrian die Grünen, Monica Frassoni from Federazione dei Verdi and Joland Verburg from the small Dutch party de Groenen.

Ulrike Lunacek dropped out, because the Austrian Greens have left the primaries altogether.