EP elections 2014

[Diouf]

Isn't 90 minutes a bit short for 5 candidates ?

I hope they let them speak a bit this time and not cut them off after 20 or 30 seconds ...

I don't think that it's necessarily too short time, but I'm afraid it's gonna be time tyranny again like in the Maastricht debate.
From the rules of the debate:

Each Participating Candidate will have no more than one minute to answer each question.

Each Participating Candidate will then have no more than one minute to comment on the answers and statements of the other Participating Candidates.

There will be a clock indicating the time remaining for statements, answers to questions and responses. This will be visible to the Participating Candidates and moderator, the studio audience and on-screen.

[Tender Branson]

Anyway, found this on Twitter:

[Enno von Loewenstern]

[Diouf]

Weighted average of Danish polls by altinget.dk

DF 27.6 % 4 seats
Liberals 22.5 % 4
Social Democrats 19.8 % 3
People's Movement against the EU 8.3 % 1
SF 7.7 % 1
Social Liberals 6.0 % 0
Conservatives 5.3 % 0
Liberal Alliance 2.8 % 0

DF gets four seats, which means that there are only four seats for the A-B-F pact as well. No seats for neither the Social Liberals nor the Conservatives.



This shows how many voters who are still in doubt about who to vote for, divided after who they voted for in the general election in 2011. This table is based on the online EU-test EU-vox in Denmark. 30.000 have answered, but there are obviously some caveats there.
Unsurprisingly, the biggest number of doubters are among those who voted for Enhedslisten in 2011. Enhedslisten is not running in these elections, and especially some of the voters they have picked up from the Social Democrats and SF might be uneasy about voting for the People's Movement against the EU. A very low number of doubters for DF. Their base is fully behind their Eurosceptic policies so it will be crucial for them to get as many as possible of them to vote. A potential negative thing for DF could be if some of the many doubters from the other parties, of whom a significant number is probably currently leaning DF, will end up voting for their 2011 party

[Jorge Martins]

For Portugal, my prediction is:

PS (S&D).........................................9-10
AP (EPP)..........................................8 (6 PSD, 2 CDS)
CDU (GUE-NGL)................................2-3 (PCP)
BE (GUE-NGL)..................................1

[ObserverIE]

Votewatch seem to be over-classifying people to groups. For instance, there's no reason why the Democratic Unionists would join EFD, which is led by UKIP, which is allied to the TUV, the DUP's far-right splinter group. For another, if Childers gets elected (which is possible but not the most likely outcome in my opinion), she will probably not join the non-socialist ALDE. She'd be more likely to set up her own New Green party, and return to the first grouping she quit rather than the second.

Childers didn't quit S&D; she was forced to leave by the Irish Labour Party.

What happens after May 25th if there are no Irish Labour MEPs (as seems likely) is an interesting question. AFAIK, she has indicated that she would seek to rejoin S&D.

[Tender Branson]

Just a brief Conchita-reference, then I'm done with that:

From the 9 frontrunners of parties running in the EP elections, 8 congratulated her for the Song Contest Victory and/or called it a sign of tolerance etc. - and only 1 sharply attacked her in a Hifly manner.

Guess who ?

Strache or Vilimsky from the FPÖ ?

No.

Ewald Stadler, the Catholiban fundie from REKOS (The Reform Conservatives)

http://atv.at/contentset/410627-am-punkt

"This is a man called Tom Neuwirth, why should I refer to him as "she" ? He's just annoying Austrians with his made-up persona and I think most people in the country see it like I do ..."

Too bad a new NEWS magazine poll by meinungsraum.at shows that more than 80% of Austrians polled are proud of Conchita winning the contest ...

[Tender Branson]

New ATV Austria Trend poll (sample = 1000):

26% ÖVP (-4%)
25% SPÖ (+1%)
20% FPÖ (+7%)
12% Greens (+2%)
11% NEOS (+11%)
 3% Europa Anders (+3%)
 1% REKOS (+1%)
 1% BZÖ (-4%)
 1% Others (EU-STOP)

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20140515_OTS0241/atv-oesterreich-trend-europawahl-kopf-an-kopf-rennen-zwischen-karas-und-freund

[SPQR]

The format

A 90-minute, live TV debate between the contenders to be the next president of the EU commission.

Language update

Ska Keller, Martin Schulz and Guy Verhofstadt will debate in English, while Alexis Tsipras will speak in Greek, and Jean-Claude Juncker will participate in French.

The presenter

Veteran Italian journalist, war correspondent, TV anchor, author, filmmaker and broadcasting executive, Monica Maggioni.

What the hell? If you wanna be leading the European Commission,fluent English is a must...

[warandwar]

The format

A 90-minute, live TV debate between the contenders to be the next president of the EU commission.

Language update

Ska Keller, Martin Schulz and Guy Verhofstadt will debate in English, while Alexis Tsipras will speak in Greek, and Jean-Claude Juncker will participate in French.

The presenter

Veteran Italian journalist, war correspondent, TV anchor, author, filmmaker and broadcasting executive, Monica Maggioni.

What the hell? If you wanna be leading the European Commission,fluent English is a must...

Tsipras can speak English more or less fluently.

Edit: here's a video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aUh96oXYt18

[Tender Branson]

BW (3rd biggest state in Germany) EU poll:



AfD at 9% must be a new high ...

[Enno von Loewenstern]

BW (3rd biggest state in Germany) EU poll:



AfD at 9% must be a new high ...

AfD rising everywhere allover Germany now. Most events are crowded and thanks to the membership, which belongs to the middle and upper middle class it is also financially strong. It is also helpful, that liberal media and established parties are treating them unfair by caling AfD right-wing populist or even worth. Many of the liberal-conservative AfD voterbase do not care anymore to media advise. The new high with 9% in Baden-Württemberg is a massive signal. On the same day several local elections will take place allover Gemany. In August Saxony and in September Thuringia and Brandenburg will have state elections with again great opportunities for AfD. The question, however, is whether the AFD can also consolidate. New parties are always in danger by external pressure and internal errors to disappear. The AFD has the chance to become Germany's new Conservative Party, but has yet to prove it. But it is by far the greatest opportunity to establish a new party in Germany, since the Green Party 30 years ago.

[Tender Branson]

Wasn't there a recent poll that showed AfD voters are the most motivated to vote ?

If they turn out, the party might as well get close to 10% Germany-wide.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Wasn't there a recent poll that showed AfD voters are the most motivated to vote ?

If they turn out, the party might as well get close to 10% Germany-wide.

AfD could get 10% or more, when the BILD-Zeitung and the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung would support them. (BILD a rabid tabloid, which is AfD hostile and FAZ which is the paper of the conservative upper and upper middle class). But since this is not so, I expect 6% as safe, 7% would be good and more just a sensation.

[Diouf]

I think this debate was somewhat better than the Maastricht debate. Even though the debate format was again far from perfect, there was, at least in the first part of the debate, some actual discussion and interaction between the candidates. In that way it probably also helped that Tsipras took part so the dividing lines between the candidates were quite clear. The quality fell during the second part. Mainly due to some weird themes like crucifixes or headscarfs in public spaces or themes on which there are little difference like corruption and lobbyism, Ukraine and whether one of them would become commission president. Again, I would have liked if the debate throughout focused on clear questions where there are differences between the candidates; things like climate goals, working conditions, environmental regulation, TTIP were barely mentioned.

Finally, there seemed to be some technical problems. In the stream on the eurovision site, there was only the original language, and generally there were too many problems with the quality of the stream.

[justfollowingtheelections]

I enjoyed the debate, but the truth is that euroscepticism and the far-right are rising everywhere in Europe, and the fact that they refuse to participate in a debate such as this one only makes the debate less relevant.  I would have liked to see a Farage or a Le Pen even if I disagree with them 100%.

[Cassius]

I enjoyed the debate, but the truth is that euroscepticism and the far-right are rising everywhere in Europe, and the fact that they refuse to participate in a debate such as this one only makes the debate less relevant.  I would have liked to see a Farage or a Le Pen even if I disagree with them 100%.

These people believe that they're running for the post of President of the EU Commission (or something like that). It'd be a little awkward for an avowed eurosceptic to take part in a debate between candidates for that office.

[Hash]

Panzergirl and her ilk don't want to debate because she doesn't know the first thing about how the EU actually works and she'd probably get asked the inconvenient question of why she never shows up to the EP and only shows up enough to collect her paycheck. It's way cooler to bitch inanely about TEH EUROKRATS and INDEPENDENCE.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

She is also Putin's poodle.

Some are called Putin's poodle and some are Obama's poodle ...

[Franzl]

BW (3rd biggest state in Germany) EU poll:



AfD at 9% must be a new high ...

Not that the EU election is in any way relevant, but the AfD numbers are gettimg a bit troubling.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Rheinland-Pfalz (Rhineland-Palatinate) state of Germany

CDU 42%
SPD 28%
Greens 8%
AfD 6%
FDP 5%
Left 3%
Pirates 3%
Others 5%

Although FDP, Left and Pirates are explicitly mentioned, still 5% for "Others" ...

The last nationwide poll for EP elections had 8% minor parties. If this would come true there will be much more german MEPs from minor parties and consequently less from the main parties than expected. So far I can not see that pollwatch and others identify this approximate. What could 8% "others" probably mean? A guess (and nothing more): 2,5% Pirates, 1,5% Free Voters, 1,5% NPD, 1% Animal Protection, 1% Die Partei and one or two parties around the necessary 0,5%. That would lead to 2-3 seats for Pirates, 1-2 Free Voters, 1-2 NPD, 1 Animal Protection, 1 Die Partei and 1 or 2 for other minor parties. 7-11 seats!!!

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup poll (probably their last poll, because Austrian pollsters are unlikely to release polls in the week before the election):



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/EU-Wahl-SPOe-fuehrt-FPOe-holt-auf/143439100

The same poll found that in federal elections SPÖ and FPÖ would have 25% each, the ÖVP 20%, NEOS 14% and the Greens 13%, BZÖ 1%, TS 1% and "others" 1%.

[Diouf]

Swedish poll by Novus for Ekot



The Pirate Party is very close to regaining one of its seats; the threshold is four percent.

Seat distribution
Moderates 4
Liberals 2
Centre Party 0
Christian Democrats 1
Social Democrats 6
Left 2
Greens 3
Sweden Democrats 2
June List 0
Pirate Party 0
Feminist Initiative 0

[Zanas]

Lots of polls in France lately, counted six in the last 10 days. Not gonna put them all here, but I'll grant you with a weighted average of my crafting, taking into account sample size, phone/online polling (only one firm polled by phone btw...), and obsolescence by date.

UMP   21,87   19
PS   16,65   14
EELV   9,10   6
Modem-UDI   8,84   6
FG   6,94   4
FN   23,21   22
NPA   1,43   0
DLR   2,54   0
ca. 10% Others

Broad tendencies are :
FN a bit ahead of UMP in polling, absolutely not sure how this could end. There is virtually no FN-shy effect anymore, and UMP voters are in all polls more likely to turn out, mainly because older. So I'm still with UMP in the lead.

EELV and Alternative up a bit, possibly hitting 10 eventually. But those two are constantly the least sure about their vote in all polls.

PS hitting its floor, but not going, IMO, to hit its record low of 1994 (14.5%).

FG declining, not dramatically though, going towards a status quo in seats.

DLR getting closer and closer to safe 7th place, but nowhere near a seat.

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ is out with a (actually not badly done) 20-minute propaganda video today:

"Democracy under Pressure: How the EU disempowers countries and its citizens."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WbxBaYT2si0