EP elections 2014

[Enno von Loewenstern]

The ARD duel between the top candidates of the European Social Democrats and Christian Democrats, Martin Schulz (SPD) and Jean-Claude Juncker, the transmitter complained miserable ratings. A mere 2.9 percent of 14 - to 49 viewers interested in the "electoral arena."

At all ages, the show came to 8.6 percent, remaining far behind the offering of the private sector. Both politicians argued on the show for a greater transfer of powers to Brussels. Candidates from other parties were not desired by the public broadcaster.

Similar shipwrecked on Tuesday and ZDF with his documentary "Contested Travel - Europe and the flows of refugees". At all ages, the film achieved a market share of just 4.8 percent. In the 14 - to 49 year olds watched 2.5 percent.

[Tender Branson]

For the German speakers/readers:

The political blog neuwal.com has released their EP Election Almanach.

It features an overview for each party incl. facts and election results, their EP election program and an interview with the frontrunners:

http://neuwal.com/walmanach/eu14/ebook/neuwal-walmanach-eu14.pdf

[Enno von Loewenstern]

How often have Eurosceptic/far-right parties voted together in 2009-2014?

http://www.votewatch.eu/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/votewatch-europe-end-of-term-scorecard-part-3-far-right-parties-final.pdf

[Zanas]

Made an aggregation of French polls, and a few things they teach us. It's in French, it's on my blog. Learn French, or google-translate it.

I'll give you this though :

   16-mai   20-mai   21-mai
FN   23,21   22,95   22,91
UMP   21,87   21,33   21,58
PS   16,65   17,09   17,11
Modem-UDI   8,84   9,40   9,51
EELV   9,10   8,90   8,79
FG   6,94   7,21   7,23
DLR   2,54   2,55   2,55
ND      1,99   1,88
NPA   1,43   1,37   1,27


And the latest repartition by seats :

FN   22,91   21
UMP   21,58   19
PS   17,11   14
Modem-UDI   9,51   7
EELV   8,79   6
FG   7,23   4


Many things can be inferred from these. Ask any question, I'll try my best.

[Cassius]

Did a little poll at school today (this election has generated a bizarre amount of interest - probably because its the first in which most of us will be voting). These were the results:

Green: 5
UKIP: 5 (including me)
Conservative: 4
Labour: 3
No2EU: 1
Liberal-Democrats: Nil

[Hifly]

Did a little poll at school today (this election has generated a bizarre amount of interest - probably because its the first in which most of us will be voting). These were the results:

Green: 5
UKIP: 5 (including me)
Conservative: 4
Labour: 3
No2EU: 1
Liberal-Democrats: Nil

Someone knew what "No2EU" was?!?!

[YL]

YouGov's final poll for the UK says UKIP 27, Lab 26, Con 22, Green 10, LD 9.  They also have a seat projection, which is "Con 14-17, Lab 21-25, LD 2-3, UKIP 21-23, Green 3-6".

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Essentially a tie. Which is certainly a very plausible outcome, although there are others. Would be quite the under-the-radar success for the Greens, either way.

[Hash]

Remember guys, the FN is a new party. They're really not racists, just defending our independence!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/10847344/Jean-Marie-Le-Pen-Ebola-epidemic-would-solve-immigration-problems.html

[You kip if you want to...]

Essentially a tie. Which is certainly a very plausible outcome, although there are others. Would be quite the under-the-radar success for the Greens, either way.

Opinium has it at 32-25-21-6-6... so basically, we won't know until Sunday

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, no. None of the polling companies really know what they're measuring for anyway.

[justfollowingtheelections]

The top parties according to the most recent polls in each country.  If I couldn't find polls for the EU election, I used polls for the country's next national election.  If I couldn't find that either, I used the results of the most recent national election.



Blue: EPP
Red: S&D
Yellow: ALDE
Green: Greens
Dark red: EUL
Purple: EFD
Gray: EAF

[Tender Branson]

Blagohair:

Romania is coloured the wrong way, the Socialists there are way ahead in the polls.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Blagohair:

Romania is coloured the wrong way, the Socialists there are way ahead in the polls.

Thanks, I couldn't find any polls for Romania.

[YL]

I didn't vote UKIP...

As previously mentioned, at the top of the ballot paper the first option was "An Independence From Europe - UK Independence Now", so possibly some other people who were intending to didn't either.

I suspect early turnout will have been particularly slow here as there was torrential rain at 7am.

[Phony Moderate]

It's only an internal but YouGov has UKIP on 13% in Scotland with Labour ahead of the SNP, and given that the sample size was much higher it might not be totally worthless.

[YL]

A bit of expectation management for the Lib Dems in the Guardian.

Zero seats would really be worse for them than most people are predicting.  They should at least hold on in the South East.

[Lasitten]

The poll before the elections in Finland. SDP is going down and Left Alliance is getting up partly because of the move to the opposition. The problem for the Left Alliance is to get our supporters really to go to vote.

[Phony Moderate]

Turnout has been pretty good at my polling station, apparently.

[doktorb]

A bit of expectation management for the Lib Dems in the Guardian.

Zero seats would really be worse for them than most people are predicting.  They should at least hold on in the South East.

Not many sensible people are predicting a wipeout

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

A bit of expectation management for the Lib Dems in the Guardian.

Zero seats would really be worse for them than most people are predicting.  They should at least hold on in the South East.

Not many sensible people are predicting a wipeout

People forget that there are still LibDem ''safe seats'' It is well and truly part of the establishment parties in that respect.

To be fair, this election is PR and therefore they can't rely on safe seats or local incumbency.

But, yeah people predicting zero seats are primarily overly-gleeful activists of other parties (the party activists I've met loath Lib Dems to a pathological (and pre-coalition) degree).

[Supersonic]

Voted about a couple of hours ago in Birmingham and turnout was pretty good, a lot of the student population where I live were voting in groups of six or seven, of course, that's not much to go on. It's started raining here now though, and apparently there's a major thunderstorm in London which will probably depress turnout if it continues.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The South East LibDem seat is a safe one, though.

[freek]

I was a volunteer at the polling station again, my shift ended at 1630. Polls close at 2100, I will have to go back then for the count.

Turnout was pretty low in our station, comparable/lower than in 2009, and about half of the turnout for Second Chamber elections. We opened 5 minutes late, the city had forgotten to deliver the ballots. .

[Tender Branson]

Voted about a couple of hours ago in Birmingham and turnout was pretty good, a lot of the student population where I live were voting in groups of six or seven, of course, that's not much to go on. It's started raining here now though, and apparently there's a major thunderstorm in London which will probably depress turnout if it continues.