EP elections 2014

[Tender Branson]

The green primaries are to begin in a few dates, and six candidates will fight to be the two front-runners. José Bové from Europe Écologie, Rebecca Harms and Ska Keller from die Grüne in Germany, Ulrike Lunacek from the Austrian die Grünen, Monica Frassoni from Federazione dei Verdi and Joland Verburg from the small Dutch party de Groenen.

Ulrike Lunacek dropped out, because the Austrian Greens have left the primaries altogether.

Interesting.

Apparently because the Austrian Greens think the online voting system that will be used in the EU-wide primaries is flawed.

[Diouf]

Ulrike Lunacek dropped out, because the Austrian Greens have left the primaries altogether.

Interesting, I wonder if other green parties share their concern.

Btw, is the Austrian European Commissioner post a part of the coalition negotiations like in Germany?

A few minutes ago the EPP spokesman said that the EPP will nominate a candidate for Commission President and that it will happen at the Dublin Congress on 6-7 March 2014.

[Zanas]

To complete this, last week I heard that during the latest PGE meeting, the French PG, who has been showing a childish attitude towards the PCF since their choice to run with the PS in Paris in the municipales first round, refused to ratify the common proposal to reconduct Pierre Laurent as President of the PGE. Then, in their crazy momentum, they refused to ratify Tsipras as EU-wide candidate, as they want to propose... Mélenchon for this ! It seems they are the only member to do so, so chances are they will end up backing off.

[Tender Branson]

Ulrike Lunacek dropped out, because the Austrian Greens have left the primaries altogether.

Btw, is the Austrian European Commissioner post a part of the coalition negotiations like in Germany?

Not that I'm aware of. Usually some random politician from the party that wins the EU elections here becomes European Commissioner.

[MaxQue]

Then, in their crazy momentum, they refused to ratify Tsipras as EU-wide candidate, as they want to propose... Mélenchon for this !

How surprising from his personality cult!

[Diouf]

Jolanda Verburg will not participate in the primary either. The European Green Party has announced that Bové, Frassoni, Harms and Keller will be the candidates in the primary. I haven't been able to find out why Verburg is not among them, but my guess will be that she didn't manage to get enough support from other parties. Candidates needed support from at least four parties to run in the actual primary.

I would think that Bové and Harms are favourites to become the lead candidates, but I'm not quite sure how this e-primary will actually unfold. Keller, who was nominated by the Young Greens, might have a chance if young people will dominate the voting. The voting starts on the 10 November.

[freek]

Jolanda Verburg will not participate in the primary either. The European Green Party has announced that Bové, Frassoni, Harms and Keller will be the candidates in the primary. I haven't been able to find out why Verburg is not among them, but my guess will be that she didn't manage to get enough support from other parties. Candidates needed support from at least four parties to run in the actual primary.

A possible reason she didn't get enough support: Verburg is not a member of GroenLinks, but of De Groenen. It has become a fringe party in The Netherlands (about 50 members). At the last EP elections in 2009 it won 0.19% of the vote. The party hasn't participated in Second Chamber elections since 1998, and there is no chance at all that the party will win a seat in 2014.

[Senator Cris]

A great simulation of the composition of European Parliament

http://sondaggiproiezioni.blogspot.it/2013/11/verso-le-europee-2014-simulazione-della.html

[Diouf]

Here you can see which green parties supported which candidates: http://europeangreens.eu/news/bov%C3%A9-frassoni-harms-and-keller-contend-green-primary

And here is the list of the parties that supported Martin Schulz:
http://www.pes.eu/en/news/pes-common-candidate-process-official-state-play

Nice link Cris. It looks like a very good simulation and it predicts a rather close battle for first place between EPP and S&D. A small mistake for Denmark though as the Unity List/Red-Green Alliance doesn't run; instead they support the People's Movement against the EU. However, they end up the same place, in GUE-NGL, so it doesn't mean that much.

[Tender Branson]

First Austrian poll for the EP elections by Karmasin for "Heute" newspaper (sample = 800):



http://www.heute.at/news/politik/art23660,953523

2009 results (rounded):

30% ÖVP
24% SPÖ
18% Martin
13% FPÖ
10% Greens
  5% BZÖ
  1% LuLis (now part of NEOS)
  1% KPÖ

[Tender Branson]

Below some background regarding the Austrian "Non-Inscrits" (Austria has the most elected NIs as a percentage of the total EP delegation, 6 out of 19). "Non-Inscrits" are MEPs with no membership in a EP group.

The 6 are:

* Ewald STADLER (elected for the BZÖ, gained the seat after the EP was re-apportioned and Austria got 1 more seat, expelled from the party about a month ago)

* Andreas MÖLZER (elected for the FPÖ)
* Franz OBERMAYR (elected for the FPÖ)

* Hans-Peter MARTIN (party leader of the HP Martin list, excentric and "not so easy" guy, querulant)
* Martin EHRENHAUSER (elected for HP Martin's list, but left it after severe personal problems with HP Martin)
* Angelika WERTHMANN (elected for HP Martin's list, but left it after severe personal problems with HP Martin, joined the Liberal EP group later in the term)

...

Because every MEP can run with his/her own list in an EP election, it might be possible that Martin, Ehrenhauser, Werthmann and Stadler all run with a list on their own in the 2014 election.

But: None of them has said that they are 100% going to run as of right now, even though Martin, Stadler and Ehrenhauser have hinted that they might: Martin to piss off the FPÖ, Stadler to piss off the BZÖ and Ehrenhauser to piss off Martin ...

[Tender Branson]

After some Googling, Werthmann (ex-Martin, now Liberals) could either retire from the EP, run as a candidate for NEOS down the list, or even as frontrunner or as a candidate on her own.

Probably A) is the most likely.

[Leftbehind]

I don't know enough about the Green candidates, but it seems GPEW have threw their lot in with the Irish and Estonian Greens for German Ska Keller, and by extension, I can only presume is some harmless liberal? Hopefully someone here can clear it up for me? Seems the direction they've been headed for a while.

[Tender Branson]

The news magazine "Profil.at" reports that next week a EAF-conference will take place in Vienna, in which Far-Right members of the FN, FPÖ, Sweden Democrats and the Vlaams Belang will take part. They will talk about a co-operation in the 2014 EP elections.

The PVV and the Lega Nord might join later.

Even if the 2 parties join, it means the EAF would still need an MEP from a 7th country to form an EP group after the election.

MEPs from 7 of the 28 countries are needed to form a group.

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20131109_OTS0004/profil-neue-europaeische-rechts-allianz-tagt-in-wien

[Diouf]

The news magazine "Profil.at" reports that next week a EAF-conference will take place in Vienna, in which Far-Right members of the FN, FPÖ, Sweden Democrats and the Vlaams Belang will take part. They will talk about a co-operation in the 2014 EP elections.

The PVV and the Lega Nord might join later.

Even if the 2 parties join, it means the EAF would still need an MEP from a 7th country to form an EP group after the election.

MEPs from 7 of the 28 countries are needed to form a group.

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20131109_OTS0004/profil-neue-europaeische-rechts-allianz-tagt-in-wien

I guess some of the current EFD-members might be convinced. Perhaps the most realistic guess from the EFD is the Slovenská národná strana (Slovak National Party) if they can get their one MEP re-elected.

Ataka from Bulgaria sat in the Identity, Tradition, Sovereignty group along with the FN, so they might also join this group if they are represented in the next European Parliament.

[RodPresident]

Excluding Jobbik can be a strategy to attract parties from countries where Hungarians aren't popular, like Romania and Slovakia. They don't want to see a repeat of ITS colapse.

[FredLindq]

SNS is polling 3.5% and the threshold is 5% so I do not thinkt that they Will get a seat. ATAKA will get at least one seat but I think they are to extreme. I think that either the dansih DF, finnish Perus or the Lithuanian TT might be the seventh party in exchange for some goodies.

[Diouf]

SNS is polling 3.5% and the threshold is 5% so I do not thinkt that they Will get a seat. ATAKA will get at least one seat but I think they are to extreme. I think that either the dansih DF, finnish Perus or the Lithuanian TT might be the seventh party in exchange for some goodies.

Why do you think Ataka will be considered too extreme now? According to Ataka's website, they visited FPÖ in Vienna in October to discuss the possibility of joining forces in the EU election*

DF has already rejected the possibility of taking part in that group. I really doubt that that Perus will join either; DF's MEP talks about them as a party very similar to his own, and I think they will much rather be associated with UKIP and Nigel Farage than with Front National, especially because of the legacy of Jean-Marie Le Pen and his anti-semitism. TT generally doesn't seem like a party that would join such a group; they are currently in a coalition government with the Labour party and the Social Democrats, and they are only very softly Eurosceptic.

I'm not sure what goodies they would get in a Front National-group that they could not get in the EFD?

*http://www.ataka.bg/en/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=222&Itemid=1

[FredLindq]

Because this new formation seems lika north-western project. I do not thinkt that they sant any eastern european party in the group. They seem to unstable. SD is more leftwing in many issues than DF and Perus. However it depends on EFD and if this group can survive. IF LN leaves I doubt that they Will.

[Tender Branson]

HP Martin likely running again next year, he tells the Vorarlberger Nachrichten:

http://www.vol.at/martin-will-bei-eu-wahl-antreten/3760736

He will decide for sure early next year, but he said he's definitely leaning towards running.

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Well, good I guess. Takes a couple % away from the FPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

The "Kurier" has an article today about the early stages of the EP elections here:

http://kurier.at/politik/eu/eu-wahl-grosses-gedraenge-im-lager-der-protestparteien/35.035.935

In Austria, 44 days ahead of election day it will be known how many parties/lists will participate in the EP election. Election day is May 25, so we'll know who runs on April 11.

Definitely running so far:

* ÖVP, SPÖ, FPÖ, Greens, NEOS, BZÖ

Lean towards running:

* Team Stronach, KPÖ, Pirates, Hans-Peter Martin

Still thinking about what to do:

* Martin Ehrenhauser (ex-List Martin), Angelika Werthmann (ex-List Martin), Ewald Stadler (ex-BZÖ)

Minor parties that could try to run (need enough signatures):

* EU-Exit Party

...

The BZÖ, the KPÖ and the Pirates need to collect 2600 signatures ahead of the election to participate.

The Team Stronach, even though they are currently not in the EP, needs no signatures - because they only need the signatures of 3 MPs in the Austrian Parliament, which they have.

Martin, Ehrenhauser, Werthmann and Stadler would need no signatures either if they decide to run with their own list - because the EP election law says that they only need their own MEP signature.

[Tender Branson]

After the next EP election, Austria will have 18 MEPs again (down from 19 after the re-apportionment of the EP, but unchanged from the 2009 election).

According to the new poll, this would mean the following:

* 5 seats - ÖVP
* 5 seats - SPÖ
* 5 seats - FPÖ
* 2 seats - Greens
* 1 seat   - NEOS

If the new EAF group can be established in the next EP, Austria will go from having the most Non-Inscrits in the EP to having none of them (assuming Martin fails this time).

[Diouf]

I don't know enough about the Green candidates, but it seems GPEW have threw their lot in with the Irish and Estonian Greens for German Ska Keller, and by extension, I can only presume is some harmless liberal? Hopefully someone here can clear it up for me? Seems the direction they've been headed for a while.

I'm not really sure what the definition "harmless liberal" entails?
The Danish Socialist People's Party is one of the most economically liberal green parties, and they supported Monica Frassoni, but I don't know exactly how much to put into that. If you look at the greenprimary-website you can see a few lines from each candidate, but to place them more detailed in an ideological sense is probably quite difficult without an extensive knowledge of the national green parties which they represent.

The key issues for each candidate on the website is broadly like this: José Bové = ecology, Monica Frassoni = democracy, Rebecca Harms = sustainibility and solidarity, and Ska Keller = internationalism and solidarity.

[Diouf]

These comments from the VVD illustrate the dividing line in the ALDE group pretty well:

The former VVD-leader and European Commissioner Frits Bolkestein agrees with his party's European spokesperson Mark Verheijen that federalists like Guy Verhofstadt are more dangerous for Europe than hardcore Eurosceptics like Marine Le Pen.

http://nos.nl/artikel/573163-bolkestein-verhofstadt-gevaarlijk.html

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[Middle-aged Europe]

Voted for Frassoni/Keller.