EP elections 2014

[Velasco]

Oops, I found the poll result in GESOP Twitter:

PP 32.4% 20/21 seats.

PSOE 27.9% 17/18 seats.

IU 9.9% 6/7 seats.

UPyD 8.3% 4/5 seats.

CEU (CiU, PNV, etc) 4.8% 2 seats.

EdP (ERC, Amaiur, BNG, etc?) 4.8% 2 seats.

C's 3.5% 1/2 seats.

I must say that I find this poll quite weird. El Periódico released today the GESOP poll for General (Parliamentary) Elections giving PP 29.5%, PSOE 25.1%, IU 12.9%, UPyD 11.1%, C's 4%, CiU 3% and ERC 2.5%. It's rather shocking to see UPyD polling 11% with C's competing in the same electoral space getting 4% nationwide. Most of polls were giving UPyD less than 10% without C's. Also, the IU result for the EP elections is surprisingly low if compared with other polls.

[Tender Branson]

New EP elections poll for Austria by Karmasin for Profil magazine:

26% ÖVP
22% FPÖ
22% SPÖ
12% Greens
  9% NEOS
  2% H.P. Martin
  1% TS
  1% BZÖ
  1% Young Liberals
  4% Others

http://www.profil.at/articles/1349/980/370398/umfrage-oevp-eu-wahl-partei

Don't know exactly why they asked for the "Young Liberals" ... The YL are part of NEOS and will not run on their own list.

[Tayya]

Since we're getting regular Austrian updates, I'd like to note what's happening up here as well.

The party lists are currently being presented and decided. The Christian Democrats, Social Democrats, Centre Party, Moderates, Left Party, Greens and Pirates have presented their lists, while the Liberals, Sweden Democrats and the Feminist Initiative have not. The June List, which lost its 3 mandates in 2009, has been inactive in later years and doesn't have a party leader, but might get around 1% if they put up a list.

Two Social Democrats, PES deputy leader Göran Ferm and Åsa Westlund, are retiring - the latter is speculated to become Minister for the EU if the Social Democrats win the election. One Moderate, Anna Ibrisagic, is also leaving, as is Green Carl Schlyter due to term limits, who will return to national politics as well. Alf Svensson, Christian Democratic leader 1973-2004, also leaves in 2014, likely retiring.

Replacing them at the top of their lists are Former Youth League chair Jytte Guteland, who I'm not really a fan of, and MP Aleksander Gabelic for the Social Democrats, former spokesperson/party leader Peter Eriksson for the Greens and surprisingly EU-skeptic MP Carl-Oskar Bohlin for the Moderates. The Social Democratic Youth League decided to put up a candidate of their own despite Guteland, their Secretary Ellinor Eriksson, who is number 7 on the list (the Social Democrats have 6 mandates at the moment).

Liberal MEP, "old cranky lady" Marit Paulsen decided to run for re-election, and because of her personal popularity she will probably net the Liberals a few percentage points, which they would potentially have lost if she hadn't been running.

For the Christian Democrats, well-known journalist Lars Adaktusson is at the top of the list, before rising star and Chair of Social Affairs in Uppsala Ebba Busch Thor, who was featured in a TV series this year about local politicians and might become the next party leader.

The Centre Party and Left Party are running incumbent no-names Kent Johansson and Mikael Gustafsson, respectively, who both were not elected but replaced their predecessors when they resigned - the Centre Party's Lena Ek to become Minister of the Environment, the Left Party's Eva-Britt Svensson for health reasons. The Left Party will likely lose votes because they dont have any known names on the ballot, while the Centre Party has some bigger names that won't get elected. If any party will lose its representation, it will probably be the Centre Party, which is struggling nationally as well.

The Pirate Party had an internal fight over who would be their front-runner of their two incumbent MEPs. Unfortunately, my personal favorite Amelia Andersdotter again got spot number 2 on the list. The Pirates might save one mandate, keyword: might, but two is very unlikely and perhaps the best MEP in Europe will likely have to return home.

The Greens will probably keep at least 2 mandates, but if they don't, expect former party leader Eriksson with high name recognition to get enough personal votes to send home fisheries expert and Sweden's second greatest MEP to be sent home.

The Sweden Democrats will gain mandates, but I don't know who will run, probably an MP. the Feminist Initiative will run Gudrun Schyman as always but won't gain a mandate.

[Diouf]

NEOS-LIF from Austria and Partidul Naţional Liberal from Romania are supporting Guy Verhofstadt. As far as I can see ALDE hasn't yet announced how the election of their front runner will take place, only that it will be announced at 1 February in Brussels.

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20131206_OTS0104/wahlplattfom-neos-lif-unterstuetzen-guy-verhofstadt-als-spitzenkandidat-der-europaeischen-liberalen-alde

http://www.pnl.ro/stiri/crin-antonescu-sus-ine-candidatura-lui-guy-verhofstadt-la-pre-edin-ia-comisiei-europene&page=1

[freek]

Dutch parties are currently in the process of selecting candidates for their lists. Some parties have only announced their #1 candidate, other parties also publicized the full preliminary lists. The lists will be final early in 2014.

PvdA decided to ditch their entire delegation. All 3 of them were deselected by the party, because of the constant infighting in the past 5 years. Also, one of them (Judith Merkies MEP) apparently did not follow party guidelines about which parliamentary expenses she was allowed to claim. She took the party to court, but lost. Number 1 of the list will be Paul Tang, MP between 2007-2010. He beat 3 other candidates.

The VVD list is topped again by current MEP Hans van Baalen. Number 2 on the list will be Cora van Nieuwenhuizen, MP since 2010. MEP Jan Mulder is retiring, Toine Manders defected to 50Plus last month. Remarkable is number 20 on the list, Derk Jan Eppink. He is Dutch, but currently MEP for Lijst Dedecker (Belgium).

CDA chose current MEP Esther de Lange to top the list. She beat her colleague Wim van de Camp, who topped the list in 2009. Delegation member Lambert van Nistelrooij is only number 9 on the preliminary candidate list, the other 2 members are retiring.

D66 members have chosen Sophie in 't Veld to top the list for the 3rd time. The other candidate was her colleague Marietje Schaake. It is too bad Schaake lost, she is one of the most visible Dutch MEPs and is a strong campaigner for digital freedom.

The GroenLinks list is topped by Bas Eickhout, the other 2 delegation members are on places 2 and 4 on the preliminary list, but it would already be an achievement if GroenLinks manages to retain 1 seat.

The SP have announced that their only remaining MEP Dennis de Jong tops the list. SP had 2 seats in 2009, but Kartika Liotard became an independent 1 year later.

CU and SGP have decided to enter with a joint list again. The last 5 years both parties went their separate ways. CU is in the ECR group at the moment, but SGP is in the EFD group because the British Conservatives refused the SGP entry. This because the SGP barred female candidates from their lists. Since this policy has been reversed earlier this year, CU and SGP have decided to co-operate again. Number 1 on the list is Peter van Dalen (CU), number 2 is Bas Belder (SGP). Both are already members of the European Parliament.

Traditionally nothing is known about the PVV list yet. Probably there will not be many new candidates, PVV recycles most of their candidates. One thing is sure: Daniël van der Stoep, who was elected in 2009, will not be on the list. He was kicked out of the party in 2011 after causing a car crash while being drunk, and he founded his own party: 'Artikel 50'.

50Plus will participate with Toine Manders as their first candidate, also Partij voor de Dieren, Artikel 50, Piratenpartij and De Groenen plan to take part.

[Diouf]

In Denmark most parties have finished their selections as well.

Socialdemokraterne (Social Democrats) have chosen Jeppe Kofoed as their lead candidate; the 39-year-old has been an MP since 1998 and is currently their spokesperson for Foreign Affairs. However, he is perhaps best known for sleeping with a 15-year-old at a Social Democrat Youth conference five years ago. He is fairly well known, but I doubt that he will be a big vote catcher. Current MEPs Ole Christensen and Christel Schaldemose are second and third, and will probably both be reelected. Last time around, Socialdemokraterne got four seats, but will probably only get three next year. If they keep their fourth seat, it will probably go to the Social Democrat Youth candidate Lasse Quvang Rasmussen or the strongly feminist current MEP Britta Thomsen who are fourth and fifth on the list respectively. I have seen Quvang IRL; he is not particularly strong on the specificities of some policies, but he is quite convincing when talking about fairness, equality, and bankers. The leader of the current MEP group and successful front runner at the last election, Dan Jørgensen, has decided not to run again, and will try to enter the Folketing at the next general election.

Venstre (Liberals) had some difficulties with finding their candidate. Their current MEP leader and front runner in 2009, Jens Rohde, was supposed to be the lead candidate again, but on the day of the selection he was rejected because he and the leader of the European Movement had written a comment for a newspaper where they argued for QMV on foreign policy decisions and a common European army. These views went too far for most of the party members, so after a few months, they instead chose Ellen Trane Nørby, an MP since 2005. Nørby is currently Political Spokesperson and thereby high in the Liberal hierarchy, and I think she will do fairly well. Venstre chose to have one lead candidate and then one candidate from each of the districts and one from the youth party. Current MEPs Morten Løkkegaard and the abovementioned Jens Rohde are running and will probably both be re-elected, while Anne E Jensen retires from the European Parliament, which she has been a member of since 1999. Venstre won three seats in 2009, and might win one more in 2014. The potential fourth MEP will be rather hard to predict among the remaining candidates; perhaps Jess Myrthu, the former co-owner of a big communication company, or the former Olympic Gold Medal winner in badminton, Poul-Erik Høyer.

SF (SPP) had a magnificent election inn 2009 and won two seats and 15.9 % of the vote. Since then one MEP, Emilie Turunen, has defected to the Social Democrats so the remaining veteran MEP Margrethe Auken will be their front runner again. She should be able to hold on to her seat, but the party will go back significantly like in the recent local and regional elections.

DF (DPP) will probably celebrate yet another success in 2014. Their current MEP Morten Messerschmidt won 284,500 personal votes in 2009, the second-highest number ever, and he will probably increase that number in 2014. He is by far the most frequently mentioned MEP; he is in all of the media all of the time, and sometimes it almost seems like he writes the articles for some of the tabloids himself. In 2009, he dragged Anna Rosbach with him to Brussels on a mere 3,592 votes, but she left the party and the EFD after two years, and joined the ECR. A few months ago, she joined the fringe environmental party Fokus, which will probably not even get enough signatures to run in 2014. This time he might even drag two other persons with him, and to avoid a repeat the party has decided to make a enhanced scrutiny for its remaining candidates, none of which has yet been made public. Perhaps they decide to run a low number of candidates, so they can better control who will get in, as it will probably not require that many votes to be the second and/or third DPP MEP.

De Konservative(Conservatives) will go back compared to the 12.7 % they received in 2009, but their current MEP, 2009 front runner and former party leader Bendt Bendtsen might just keep his seat.

Folkebevægelsen mod EU (People's Movement against EU) should face a favourable environment with the increasing euroscepticism and the high level of support for Enhedslisten. However, their fairly well-known current MEP Søren Søndergaard is not running again; instead he will run for Enhedslisten at the next general election. Their new front runner Rina Ronja Kari is completely unknown, so it might prove difficult for the movement to get more than one MEP.

Radikale Venstre (Social Liberals) did not win a seat in 2009, but they might just do that this time. Their front runner is Morten Helveg Petersen, MP from 1998-2009, and a part of the Helveg Petersen dynasty in the party.

The Liberal Alliance has not yet found a candidate, and it will be hard for whoever they choose as they might not be able to be a part of an electoral pact.

[Tender Branson]

New ATV Austria Trend poll for the EP elections:

26% ÖVP [-4]
21% FPÖ [+8]
20% SPÖ [-4]
13% Greens [+3]
10% NEOS [+10]
  5% Martin [-13]
  2% TS [+2]
  3% Others

http://atv.at/binaries/asset/download_assets/4174979/file

[Diouf]

Alexis Tsipras is now the first confirmed Commission Presidency candidate. He was elected by the European Left at their congress in Madrid; he got 84 % of the votes. As far as I know there were no other candidates, so the remaining ballots must have been blank or spoiled.

[Tender Branson]

Strache is currently in the process of finding another 4 parties for the EAF coalition next year:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/14/us-europe-right-austria-idUSBRE9BD0DD20131214

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[Diouf]

14 ALDE leaders have signed a letter expressing support for Olli Rehn's candidacy.

The fourteen leaders are:
Juha Sipilä, Party Leader of Centre Party of Finland, Finland
Andrus Ansip, Prime Minister and Party Leader, Reform Party, Estonia
Praxoula Antoniadou Kyriacou, Party Leader of the United Democrats, Cyprus
Jan Björklund, Party Leader of Folkpartiet, Sweden
Nick Clegg, Deputy Prime Minister and Leader of the Liberal Democrats, United Kingdom
Carl Haglund, Party Leader, Swedish People’s Party, Finland
Ivan Jakovčic, Party Leader of Istrian Democratic Assembly, Croatia
Harry Jansson, Party Leader, Åland Centre Party, Finland
Christian Lindner, Party Leader of the Free Democratic Party, Germany
Annie Lööf, Party Leader of Centerpartiet, Sweden
Lyutvi Mestan, Party Leader of Movement for Rights and Freedoms, Bulgaria
Vesna Pusić, Party Leader of Croatian People’s Party, Croatia
Lars Løkke Rasmussen, Party Leader of Venstre, Denmark
Margrethe Vestager, Party Leader of Radikale Venstre, Denmark

These parties combined had 38 of the 84 ALDE MEPs elected in the 2009 election.

The letter: http://static.emaileri.fi/filetemp/e73169f46e7585e657a892325ebfabd8.pdf

[Zanas]

In other news, the French PG (Mélenchon's party) has now left the Party of the European Left because they are so pissed off that Pierre Laurent has been confirmed as its President whereas he has allied with the PS in Paris' municipales... Negociations for the FG lists in the EP elections just got a little trickier, and they were already tough...

I'm starting to be quite fed up with PG bullshit...

[Diouf]

Today the EPP unveiled their procedure for finding their candidate for Commission President:

13 February (EPP Summit) – opening of the submission of candidacies; to be nominated, a candidate needs the support of his or her own member party, plus the endorsement of two member parties from two EU countries other than the country of origin of the candidate

5 March – last day to submit candidature

6 March (Dublin Congress) – review of the candidatures at the Political Assembly; validation of the candidatures and submission to the Congress for a vote

7 March (Dublin Congress) – Congress delegates vote to elect the candidate; proclamation of the candidate; launch of the campaign

[Tender Branson]

Ewald Stadler (the ex-FPÖ, ex-BZÖ, very far-right MEP) will run with his own list in the EP elections.

This will splinter the protest vote even more next year (FPÖ, TS, BZÖ, Stadler, Martin, Ehrenhauser maybe) ...

Maybe the FPÖ won't get 20% after all.

http://derstandard.at/1385171691090/Ewald-Stadler-kandidiert-mit-eigener-Liste

[Diouf]

In Denmark, a referendum on the Unified Patent Court will be held in conjunction with the EP election at the 25 May. A 5/6 majority is needed in parliament if sovereignty is to be transferred without an referendum. Neither DF nor Enhedslisten could be convinced to vote in favour, so now we will have a referendum. The no-side not only needs the majority of the votes in the referendum, they should also make up at least 30 % of all eligible voters. If both of these requirements are not reached, sovereignty will be transferred.

The latest polling showed these results, but not much debate has happened yet:
Do you think there should be a referendum about this question?
40.6 % yes, 43.5 % no, 15.9 % don't know

How would you vote in such a referendum?
41.7 % yes, 19.5 % no, 12.7 % blank vote, 26.1 % don't know.

I think it will be hard for the no-side to reach the required number of votes, but it is always difficult to poll referendums before the real debate about the question. It is hard to predict how the referendum will affect the EP elections. It already seems that the yes-parties will use this to depict DF as someone who just says no to everything European out of principle, even when it's something which makes life easier for corporations and innovators. DF's main argument so far is the parasite argument: Danish companies would be able to get the unified patent covering the other countries anyway and then we can keep our own patents in Denmark and decide about them ourselves. Enhedslisten/The People's movement against the EU have mainly talked about the risk of many more software patents being given in a Common Unified Patent.

[warandwar]

In Denmark, a referendum on the Unified Patent Court will be held in conjunction with the EP election at the 25 May. A 5/6 majority is needed in parliament if sovereignty is to be transferred without an referendum. Neither DF nor Enhedslisten could be convinced to vote in favour, so now we will have a referendum. The no-side not only needs the majority of the votes in the referendum, they should also make up at least 30 % of all eligible voters. If both of these requirements are not reached, sovereignty will be transferred.

The latest polling showed these results, but not much debate has happened yet:
Do you think there should be a referendum about this question?
40.6 % yes, 43.5 % no, 15.9 % don't know

How would you vote in such a referendum?
41.7 % yes, 19.5 % no, 12.7 % blank vote, 26.1 % don't know.

I think it will be hard for the no-side to reach the required number of votes, but it is always difficult to poll referendums before the real debate about the question. It is hard to predict how the referendum will affect the EP elections. It already seems that the yes-parties will use this to depict DF as someone who just says no to everything European out of principle, even when it's something which makes life easier for corporations and innovators. DF's main argument so far is the parasite argument: Danish companies would be able to get the unified patent covering the other countries anyway and then we can keep our own patents in Denmark and decide about them ourselves. Enhedslisten/The People's movement against the EU have mainly talked about the risk of many more software patents being given in a Common Unified Patent.

The no side needs at least 30% of Registered Voters? Why not the yes side?

[MaxQue]

In Denmark, a referendum on the Unified Patent Court will be held in conjunction with the EP election at the 25 May. A 5/6 majority is needed in parliament if sovereignty is to be transferred without an referendum. Neither DF nor Enhedslisten could be convinced to vote in favour, so now we will have a referendum. The no-side not only needs the majority of the votes in the referendum, they should also make up at least 30 % of all eligible voters. If both of these requirements are not reached, sovereignty will be transferred.

The latest polling showed these results, but not much debate has happened yet:
Do you think there should be a referendum about this question?
40.6 % yes, 43.5 % no, 15.9 % don't know

How would you vote in such a referendum?
41.7 % yes, 19.5 % no, 12.7 % blank vote, 26.1 % don't know.

I think it will be hard for the no-side to reach the required number of votes, but it is always difficult to poll referendums before the real debate about the question. It is hard to predict how the referendum will affect the EP elections. It already seems that the yes-parties will use this to depict DF as someone who just says no to everything European out of principle, even when it's something which makes life easier for corporations and innovators. DF's main argument so far is the parasite argument: Danish companies would be able to get the unified patent covering the other countries anyway and then we can keep our own patents in Denmark and decide about them ourselves. Enhedslisten/The People's movement against the EU have mainly talked about the risk of many more software patents being given in a Common Unified Patent.

The no side needs at least 30% of Registered Voters? Why not the yes side?

One can assume it's because the Yes got a majority in Parliament. Not the 5/6 needed to by-pass the referendum, but over 1/2.

[Diouf]

In Denmark, a referendum on the Unified Patent Court will be held in conjunction with the EP election at the 25 May. A 5/6 majority is needed in parliament if sovereignty is to be transferred without an referendum. Neither DF nor Enhedslisten could be convinced to vote in favour, so now we will have a referendum. The no-side not only needs the majority of the votes in the referendum, they should also make up at least 30 % of all eligible voters. If both of these requirements are not reached, sovereignty will be transferred.

The latest polling showed these results, but not much debate has happened yet:
Do you think there should be a referendum about this question?
40.6 % yes, 43.5 % no, 15.9 % don't know

How would you vote in such a referendum?
41.7 % yes, 19.5 % no, 12.7 % blank vote, 26.1 % don't know.

I think it will be hard for the no-side to reach the required number of votes, but it is always difficult to poll referendums before the real debate about the question. It is hard to predict how the referendum will affect the EP elections. It already seems that the yes-parties will use this to depict DF as someone who just says no to everything European out of principle, even when it's something which makes life easier for corporations and innovators. DF's main argument so far is the parasite argument: Danish companies would be able to get the unified patent covering the other countries anyway and then we can keep our own patents in Denmark and decide about them ourselves. Enhedslisten/The People's movement against the EU have mainly talked about the risk of many more software patents being given in a Common Unified Patent.

The no side needs at least 30% of Registered Voters? Why not the yes side?

One can assume it's because the Yes got a majority in Parliament. Not the 5/6 needed to by-pass the referendum, but over 1/2.

Correct. If not enough people vote no, then the decision of parliament will be carried through.

[Tender Branson]

KPÖ, Pirates, Der Wandel and Martin Ehrenhauser (ex-Martin MEP) are currently talking about a joint leftist EP list.

http://oe1.orf.at/artikel/361140

Team Stronach might not run, because Frank Stronach has enough of politics and said that "no further money will go to the party".

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup poll for the EP elections:



Link

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

How come the ÖVP do so well in the EU elections? (Compared to their national result)

[Tender Branson]

How come the ÖVP do so well in the EU elections? (Compared to their national result)

Hmm, maybe because the FPÖ and the Greens attract a few usually SPÖ-leaning voters who are disappointed with the national government ?

We need to wait if NEOS has a similar impact on the ÖVP.

But 24% here is not really "doing well" compared with the national elections, when they also got 24%.

Also, the People's Party generally seems to do well in the European countries in the EP elections, even thought the SPÖ actually won the 1999 and 2004 elections. I think the SPÖ didn't win in 2009, because of the Martin voters (even though I have to check the exit poll).

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

How come the ÖVP do so well in the EU elections? (Compared to their national result)

Hmm, maybe because the FPÖ and the Greens attract a few usually SPÖ-leaning voters who are disappointed with the national government ?

We need to wait if NEOS has a similar impact on the ÖVP.

But 24% here is not really "doing well" compared with the national elections, when they also got 24%.

Also, the People's Party generally seems to do well in the European countries in the EP elections, even thought the SPÖ actually won the 1999 and 2004 elections. I think the SPÖ didn't win in 2009, because of the Martin voters (even though I have to check the exit poll).

Well, no, but in the last EP election they got 30% according to the poll. That seems pretty strong to me, compared to how they fared in national elections that same year.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Which Europarty will NEOS join?  EPP?  ALDE?

[Tender Branson]

How come the ÖVP do so well in the EU elections? (Compared to their national result)

Hmm, maybe because the FPÖ and the Greens attract a few usually SPÖ-leaning voters who are disappointed with the national government ?

We need to wait if NEOS has a similar impact on the ÖVP.

But 24% here is not really "doing well" compared with the national elections, when they also got 24%.

Also, the People's Party generally seems to do well in the European countries in the EP elections, even thought the SPÖ actually won the 1999 and 2004 elections. I think the SPÖ didn't win in 2009, because of the Martin voters (even though I have to check the exit poll).

Well, no, but in the last EP election they got 30% according to the poll. That seems pretty strong to me, compared to how they fared in national elections that same year.

Likely some BZÖ voters coming back to the ÖVP after the death of Haider too.

[Tender Branson]

Which Europarty will NEOS join?  EPP?  ALDE?

NEOS is already part of ALDE.