EP elections 2014

[Tender Branson]

Ewald Stadler (the ex-FPÖ, ex-BZÖ, very far-right MEP) will run with his own list in the EP elections.

This will splinter the protest vote even more next year (FPÖ, TS, BZÖ, Stadler, Martin, Ehrenhauser maybe) ...

Maybe the FPÖ won't get 20% after all.

http://derstandard.at/1385171691090/Ewald-Stadler-kandidiert-mit-eigener-Liste

Stadler's party will be called REKOS, he said in the party-launching press conference today.

REKOS is short for "Reform Conservatives".

His list will be supported by the CPÖ (Christian Party of Austria).

You must be logged in to read this quote.

www.rekos.at

[Tender Branson]

I hope he gets 3.99% and the FPÖ 18% instead of 22% ...

[Tender Branson]

If elected, Stadler would likely join the ECR group in the EP:

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Stadler-tritt-mit-der-Christen-Partei-an/125713741

You must be logged in to read this quote.

He said that he wants to work together with the UK Tories and the Polish PiS party, with which he has a lot in common.

For example to block the Estrela report on abortions as a human right which he finds unacceptable.

[YL]

Pinch of salt required, probably, but a rather out of date (the fieldwork was done in November) Survation poll for the EU election in the UK has just been published, and the headline figures are Lab 32, UKIP 25, Con 24, LD 8, Greens 6, Others 6.

[You kip if you want to...]

Pinch of salt required, probably, but a rather out of date (the fieldwork was done in November) Survation poll for the EU election in the UK has just been published, and the headline figures are Lab 32, UKIP 25, Con 24, LD 8, Greens 6, Others 6.

Also take this with a pinch of salt, but the Libs should surely be worried about the Greens finishing ahead of them in May, surely...

[DC Al Fine]

Pinch of salt required, probably, but a rather out of date (the fieldwork was done in November) Survation poll for the EU election in the UK has just been published, and the headline figures are Lab 32, UKIP 25, Con 24, LD 8, Greens 6, Others 6.

Also take this with a pinch of salt, but the Libs should surely be worried about the Greens finishing ahead of them in May, surely...

I take it UKIP tends to underperform their polls?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not exactly, its more that polls for European Elections are a complete waste of time and are rarely reflective of anything. Nobody here cares about them, you see.

[You kip if you want to...]

Most give an intention to EU elections polls similar to their Westminster voting intention until like a month before the election.

[Beezer]

Merkel apparently objects to Juncker being named as the EPP's candidate for the commission presidency.

http://www.wort.lu/en/view/will-merkel-fight-juncker-s-international-ambitions-52bff68ce4b0dd3de1627294

[Diouf]

CSOP poll for Romania (2009 result). 5 % threshold for parties, 3.33 % for independents. Romania goes from 33 to 32 MEPs.

Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) 39 % (+8 %) 16 seats (+5)
Partidul Democrat Liberal (EPP) 19 % (-11 %) 7 (-3)
Partidul Naţional Liberal (ALDE) 18 % (+ 3.5 %) 7 (+2)
Uniunea Democrată a Maghiarilor din România (EPP) 6 % (- 3 %) 2 (-1)
Forţa Civică (EPP) 4 % (+ 4 %) ~ 0
Partidul Poporului - Dan Diaconescu (? EUDemocrats) 4 % (new) 0
Partidul România Mare (Non-inscrit) 3 % (-5.5 %) 0 (-3)
Miscarea Populara (EPP?) 3 % (-1 %)^ 0 (-1)
Partidul Conservator 1 %  (S&D) (new)*
Others 3 % (=)


~ Led by former PM Mihai Răzvan Ungureanu. Ran in an alliance with the PDL in the 2012 General Election. If they choose to do the same here, they will probably be secured of a MEP or two.
^ New party build by president Traian Băsescu's advisers, so guessing Elena Băsescu will run for them, but it might be easier for her to run as an independent again.
* Ran in an alliance with the PSD in 2009 and won one MEP. Will probably run with them again.

[Diouf]

Financial Times has more on the process of finding a new Commission President. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0607ca9e-6bf2-11e3-85b1-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz2pKRcfAnP

It says this about the ALDE race

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Even for a European 'party' the ALDE is an impressive absurdity, so the current situation probably shouldn't come as a great surprise for anyone...

[Tender Branson]

New EP elections poll here (Oekonsult for the Bezirksblätter):

23.2% ÖVP (-7)
22.7% FPÖ (+10)
21.7% SPÖ (-2)
15.8% Greens (+6)
10.8% NEOS (+11)
  2.5% Martin (-15)
  2.0% TS (+2)
  1.5% BZÖ (-3)

http://www.meinbezirk.at/wien-01-innere-stadt/politik/eu-skeptiker-dominieren-m5565930,786740.html

Turnout is projected to be epically low in this poll: 20% will vote, 47% will not vote - with the rest undecided.

[Tender Branson]

* FPÖ (2009 front-runner: Andreas Mölzer, won't run again as leading candidate)

Likely frontrunners are Barbara Kappel, Franz Obermayr (already an MEP) and Harald Vilimsky:

 

Apparently, these reports were not correct:

Mölzer will not retire after all, but in fact lead the FPÖ once again into the elections.



Vilimsky will be 2nd on the list.

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/1513605/Vilimsky_Straches-Mann-furs-Grobe-geht-nach-Brussel

[Tender Branson]

I'm doing a chart soon that shows the eligible voters in each country, the total votes cast and the turnout in each EU country + the EU itself for the 2009 elections as a base for this election.

[freek]

Poll for The Netherlands, by TNS NIPO, published in NRC Handelsblad



Which gives in seats (giving GL and 50Plus the benefit of the doubt, the threshold is ~3.85%):

PVV 5 (0)
VVD 5 (+2)
SP 4 (+2)
D66 3 (0)
PvdA 3 (0)
CDA (-2)
CU/SGP 1 (-1)
50Plus 1 (+1)
GL 1 (-2)

Total = 26 seats (no change)

If parties combine their lists the same way as in 2009 (PvdA+GL; VVD+D66; CDA+CU/SGP), CU/SGP gain an extra seat, SP lose 1 seat.

(the result for Overig/Other in 2009 is an error, it should be 2.0%, not 12.0%)

[Zanas]

What I've learnt about Dutch elections is that SP always loses to PvdA in the last weeks.

[Tayya]

The Swedish Left Party Congress today decided to knock their incumbent MEP, Mikael Gustafsson, down to number 2 on the party list in favor of Malin Björk, currently a Brussels official and someone who I have never heard of before. Gustafsson was never elected, but was number 2 on the list in the last election and replaced Eva-Britt Svensson who stepped down from the European Parliament and is now running for a Riksdag seat. Gustafsson, who lost by two votes, is not a household name, but overtook Eva-Britt Svensson's chairmanship of the Committee of Equality.

The Left Party usually overperforms in the EUP elections and it isn't impossible for them to retake the second seat that they lost in 2009.

Apart from the gender aspect (the Left Party wants to brandish its feminist credentials, possibly to avoid competition from the Feminist Initiative) Björk is apparantly also a lesbian, though I don't know if that is part of the reason why she was raised from being number 9 on the party list to the #1 spot. The original list proposition had five other women before her on the list so there's probably internal reasons I don't know of at play here as well.

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ unveiled a really surprising frontrunner for the EU elections today: Eugen Freund



Freund is a former long time & popular ORF moderator for the main news reports (ZIB) in Austria, who quit the ORF a few weeks ago.

http://derstandard.at/1388650862389/EU-Wah-Eugen-Freund-soll-SPOe-Spitzenkandidat-werden

[Tender Branson]

I'm doing a chart soon that shows the eligible voters in each country, the total votes cast and the turnout in each EU country + the EU itself for the 2009 elections as a base for this election.

Here it is (ranked by turnout):



It should be noted that LUX, BEL, ITA, CYP and GRE still have some sort of mandatory voting in their laws, even though its mostly not enforced (many older people might still think though that it is enforced).

Also, the first column after the countries shows the Jan. 1, 2013 population in each country, but the election was in Mid-2009, so the 4th row (electorate %) is a little bit out-of-date.

I could have used 2009 population data for each country, but this is hardly a good idea because the Censuses were held in 2011 and the 2009 figures are often not revised yet.

For example, Germany's population was about 82 Mio. pre-census in 2009, but is only 80.5 Mio. post-census, a difference of 1.5 Mio. people.

All other columns are from official sources.

[Iannis]

No, in Italy there is not any sort of mandatory vote, it's certain.

[Tender Branson]

No, in Italy there is not any sort of mandatory vote, it's certain.

Well, of course not enforced at all, that is sure.

But article 48.2 in the Italian constitution says that voting is a "citizenship duty", which means it's still in the law (and was enforced until 1993, for example that you couldn't get a public job in the town you live because you didn't vote).

Which means older people might still think it is that way because they have not heard otherwise.

[Diouf]

A Sova Haris Poll for Bulgaria from early January showed this result for Bulgaria. I haven't found the percentages anywhere. Bulgaria has 17 seats, one down on 2009. (compared to 2009 result):

Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) S&D 7 (+3)
Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) EPP 5 (=)
Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) ALDE 3 (=)
Bulgaria without Censorship 1 (new)
Reformist Bloc 1 probably EPP (-1)
Ataka, which won 2 seats in 2009, is not projected to get any seats. Nor is the National Movement for Stability and Progress, the party founded by former Tsar and Prime Minister Simeon Saxe-Coburg-Gotha which won two seats in 2009.

GERB is the main centre-right party, lead by Boyko Borisov who was prime minister from 2009 until February 2013 when he resigned after massive protests over high energy costs, low living standards and corruption. They lost 20 seats at the following election but remained the biggest party in the Bulgarian Parliament. BSP formed a new cabinet with the DPS, a party mainly for the Turkish minority, and the tacit support from the nationalist Ataka, which did not vote against the new government.
Bulgaria without Censorship is a new protest movement created by TV-presenter and journalist Nikolay Barekov after the many protests against corruption in the political elite.
The former EU Commissioner Meglena Kuneva leads the recently-established right wing coalition Reformist Bloc. The parties involved are quite similar to those of the Blue Coalition which won two seats in 2009.

However, on 13 January the popular MEP Ivailo Kalfin left the BSP. In the 2009 election, he received 50 641 personal votes, the third-highest number.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.euractiv.com/eu-elections-2014/prominent-mep-splits-bulgarian-s-news-532728

[Tender Branson]

UK (YouGov/Sun):

32% Labour
26% UKIP
23% Tories
  9% Lib Dems

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/01/labour-remain-ahead-european-election-poll-wholl-triumph-may

[Diouf]

The whole poll:




The Telegraph claims that the Lib Dems will lose all their MEPs with such an result. I believe that sounds a bit odd. I know that their support is not that concentrated anywhere, but surely they would be able to a pick up a few seats with 9 %?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10575868/Tories-to-come-third-in-Euro-elections-behind-Labour-and-Ukip-poll-warns.html