EP elections 2014

[Diouf]

Lega Nord confirms that it will join the Le Pen and Wilders project.

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http://www.eunews.it/en/2014/01/15/european-parliament-elections-the-italian-lega-nord-chooses-le-pens-extreme-right-wing-party/11867

[Tender Branson]

Bayern/Bavaria (Infratest dimap)



...

Hamburg (Infratest dimap)

[YL]

The whole poll:




The Telegraph claims that the Lib Dems will lose all their MEPs with such an result. I believe that sounds a bit odd. I know that their support is not that concentrated anywhere, but surely they would be able to a pick up a few seats with 9 %?

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10575868/Tories-to-come-third-in-Euro-elections-behind-Labour-and-Ukip-poll-warns.html

I don't know where they're getting that from.  The South East has 10 MEPs, and the Lib Dems did slightly better there in 2009 than nationally, so with 9% nationally they'd be almost certain to hold a seat there.  I think they'd probably also hold seats in London and the North West, and might well in the East of England and the South West.

[Tender Branson]

A good sign for UKIP is that they are 1st already among old voters, but perform worse with young voters.

Older people are more reliable to turn out than younger voters, which might push UKIP to an election day win.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

UKIP's voter profile certainly tends to skew older, but YouGov's internals are pretty much openly useless.

[You kip if you want to...]

Have to wonder which the Tories would prefer: third and UKIP coming first, or third and Labour coming first...

[MaxQue]

Have to wonder which the Tories would prefer: third and UKIP coming first, or third and Labour coming first...

I suppose than members would prefer UKIP coming first, but leadership would prefer Labour coming first.

[You kip if you want to...]

Have to wonder which the Tories would prefer: third and UKIP coming first, or third and Labour coming first...

I suppose than members would prefer UKIP coming first, but leadership would prefer Labour coming first.

I mean, which would be a less bad outcome for them, not necessarily which they'd prefer.

[Tender Branson]

The announcement of Eugen Freund (see above) as SPÖ-frontrunner for the EP elections has pushed the SPÖ into a tie with ÖVP and FPÖ in the new Gallup poll (sample = 400, Jan. 15-16):



Link

[Tender Branson]

The BZÖ is flirting with the idea of running Jörg Haider's daughter Ulrike as their frontrunner for the EP elections:

(right-click for huge version)

[Tender Branson]

An EP election alliance between the KPÖ (Communists), the Pirate Party and the Wandel ("Change") Party is now almost a done deal, according to the political blog "neuwal.com":



http://neuwal.com/index.php/2014/01/16/wahlbuendnis-kpoe-piratenpartei-der-wandel-kooperationsvereinbarung

The 3 boards of each party will still have to sign it off, with the Pirates being the first to do so this weekend.

The 3 parties got a combined 2% in the September 2013 federal election.

It's not yet clear if MEP Martin Ehrenhauser will join them as well, they are still in talks. If he joins their left-wing platform, the platform would not need to collect 2600 signatures to be on the ballot, because Ehrenhauser's signature as a Member of the European Parliament is already enough.

[sirius3100]

The announcement of Eugen Freund (see above) as SPÖ-frontrunner for the EP elections has pushed the SPÖ into a tie with ÖVP and FPÖ in the new Gallup poll (sample = 400, Jan. 15-16):

Really? With a sample size of 400 and a change of just 1% isn't more likely that it's just statistical fluctuation?

[Tender Branson]

An EP election alliance between the KPÖ (Communists), the Pirate Party and the Wandel ("Change") Party is now almost a done deal, according to the political blog "neuwal.com":



http://neuwal.com/index.php/2014/01/16/wahlbuendnis-kpoe-piratenpartei-der-wandel-kooperationsvereinbarung

The 3 boards of each party will still have to sign it off, with the Pirates being the first to do so this weekend.

The 3 parties got a combined 2% in the September 2013 federal election.

It's not yet clear if MEP Martin Ehrenhauser will join them as well, they are still in talks. If he joins their left-wing platform, the platform would not need to collect 2600 signatures to be on the ballot, because Ehrenhauser's signature as a Member of the European Parliament is already enough.

The Pirate Party voted strongly in favour of the election alliance today at their convention in Graz.

Also, Martin Ehrenhauser was present at the Pirate convention as well and gave a speech, in which he said that he'll "definitely support" the alliance if it is OK'd by all 3 parties.



http://derstandard.at/1389857508314/Piraten-stimmten-fuer-Wahlbuendnis-mit-KPOe-und-Der-Wandel

[joevsimp]

I don't know where they're getting that from.  The South East has 10 MEPs, and the Lib Dems did slightly better there in 2009 than nationally, so with 9% nationally they'd be almost certain to hold a seat there.  I think they'd probably also hold seats in London and the North West, and might well in the East of England and the South West.

those last three regions are the main targets for the greens, so we'll see how much they can close the gap nearer the time

the LDs also finished ahead of Labour in SE and SW last time, I'm expecting that won't happen again

[Diouf]

Electionista is collecting EP polls from all member states in this document: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0AoT7Lrz2HoS3dHhId09Ta0ptZzRoTE5Xa3c4OXBOQnc&usp=sharing#gid=0

The most recent one is a Iltalehti poll for Finland (compared with 2009)

National Coalition Party (EPP) 21.1 % (-2.1 %) 3 seats (=)
Centre Party (ALDE) 20.8 % (+1.8 %) 3 (=)
Social Democratic Party (S&D) 17.5 % (=) 2 (=)
The Finns Party (EFD) 15.9 % (+6.1 %) 3 (+2)
Green League (Greens) 8.9 % (-3.5 %) 1 (-1)
The Left Alliance (GUE/NGL) 7.2 % (+1.3 %) 1 (+1)
Swedish People's Party (ALDE) 4.1 % (-1.9 %) 0 (-1)
Christian Democrats (EPP) 3.3 % (-0.8 %) 0 (-1)
Others 1.2 % ( - 0.8 %) 0 (=)

Seat allocation is assuming that The Finns Party and Christian Democrats will keep their alliance.

[Tender Branson]

The announcement of Eugen Freund (see above) as SPÖ-frontrunner for the EP elections has pushed the SPÖ into a tie with ÖVP and FPÖ in the new Gallup poll (sample = 400, Jan. 15-16):

(pic)

Link

One week in and the SPÖ is already in big trouble, because Eugen Freund made a big blunder in a recent interview:

Freund, the frontrunner for the Social Democratic Party (a worker's party), was asked the following in the interview:

"How much do you think a (blue-collar) worker in Austria earns per month on average ?"

And Freund replied:

"I think about 3.000€"

And the journalist then told him that the average worker earns just 2000€ (maybe even less).

Freund then replied:

"Well, that's not my fault. You cannot have all these numbers in your head."

http://wirtschaftsblatt.at/home/nachrichten/oesterreich/1550990/SPO-kaut-schwer-am-Fauxpas-von-Eugen-Freund

...

This just re-inforces the image of a snobby/above-all, well-paid ORF-type that has no clue about the average worker and is only concerned to get a place at the well-paid feeding trough in Brussels. And it only helps the FPÖ, which will get even more workers from the SPÖ ... Sadly.

[Diouf]

ALDE have found their candidate for the Commission Presidency.

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This resolution needs to be accepted at the ALDE meeting at 1 February.

http://www.aldeparty.eu/en/press-releases/agreement-reached-between-olli-rehn-and-guy-verhofstadt-statement-alde-party?utm_source=Press%20release&utm_medium=Twitter&utm_campaign=PR-Agreement

[Tender Branson]

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...

And now it turns out that he also got a 250.000€ dismissal pay from the ORF, plus 200.000 from a ORF corporate pension plan, after earning more than 120.000€ each year when he was still working for the ORF. Now he will get a monthly state-pension of 4000€ and when he takes over as MEP he'll earn 8000€ a month.

And Freund keeps piling up in a recent interview:

"I cannot imagine living with just the maximum state-pension of 4000€ a month. I have a certain lifestyle and I have to pay the studies of my children in the US."

Yeah, that's exactly what SPÖ voters, retired people with an average pension of 1000€ a month, like to hear from their frontrunner in the EP election ...

[Yeahsayyeah]

That sounds very Steinbrückian to me. A candidate so out of touch with the concerns of the party's voters that he totally damages its message.

[Tender Branson]

That sounds very Steinbrückian to me. A candidate so out of touch with the concerns of the party's voters that he totally damages its message.

Yeah, exactly. He's Steinbrück 2.0 or even worse.

The Frankfurter Rundschau has an article about it, if you are interested:

http://www.fr-online.de/politik/eu-wahlkampf-in-oesterreich-der-rote-spitzenkandidat-und-das-liebe-geld,1472596,25953786.html

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ is having some fun recently with Freund's statements (well, FPÖ-leader Strache is currently on a 2-week vacation on the Maledives, so the FPÖ-general secretary Kickl released this statement):

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With parties like SPÖ and ÖVP, the FPÖ can virtually chill out and coast to 1st place in May.

Sadly, but understandable ...

[Diouf]

Still a weird lack of EP polls in Denmark. However, A&B Analyse have polled for the Unified Patent Court referendum. 54 % will vote yes, 20 % no, 26 % don't know.

[Diouf]

[Middle-aged Europe]

European election poll for Germany (Emnid, 01/26)

CDU/CSU 42%
SPD 26%
Greens 10%
Left 8%
AfD 7%
FDP 3%

I suppose the only purpose of the poll is to push the AfD, since this poll was commissioned by BILD.

And it seems the FDP is struggling to re-enter the European Parliament even with the lowered threshold in effect. They should pray that the Consitutional Court strikes the 3% clause down as well in the coming weeks.

[Niemeyerite]

Aw, I was going to post the Spanish poll.. And I have to say: GLORIOUS NEWS!!! And they hadn't "Podemos" (left-wing platform that may eventually make a coalition of IU) and "Vox" (far-right people who think Rajoy is too soft on terrorism) as options.