EP elections 2014

[Franzl]

European election poll for Germany (Emnid, 01/26)

CDU/CSU 42%
SPD 26%
Greens 10%
Left 8%
AfD 7%
FDP 3%

I suppose the only purpose of the poll is to push the AfD, since this poll was commissioned by BILD.

And it seems the FDP is struggling to re-enter the European Parliament even with the lowered threshold in effect. They should pray that the Consitutional Court strikes the 3% clause down as well in the coming weeks.

That AfD number does look realistic, though...

[Velasco]

Oops, I almost posted the same image.

I'm not sure if PSOE is going to win, even by a 1.6% margin, but at least the election will be competitive.

The newspaper concedes such narrow margin falls into the standard margin of error and there's a "technical draw". According to the newspaper, Rubalcaba seems to prefer the veteran Ramón Jáuregi on the top of the list, perhaps with Elena Valenciano (PSOE's deputy general secretary). Rajoy might be undecided between Jaime Mayor Oreja (former Minister of Interior) and Miguel Arias Cañete (currently in Agriculture). The socialists might be unexpectedly reinforced by the controversial new abortion law. Given PP and PSOE low percentages, it looks like the Populares might be seriously damaged by abstention instead of a PSOE recovery. IU multiplies by 4 the 2009 result and UPyD by 3. Cuitadans (Movimiento Ciudadano) might gain a seat and the two nationalist coalitions 3 seats each if they are conformed as in 2009 (unlikely).

I suspect soon we'll see a poll released by El Mundo with PP winning by 5%.

[Tender Branson]

European election poll for Germany (Emnid, 01/26)

CDU/CSU 42%
SPD 26%
Greens 10%
Left 8%
AfD 7%
FDP 3%

I suppose the only purpose of the poll is to push the AfD, since this poll was commissioned by BILD.

And it seems the FDP is struggling to re-enter the European Parliament even with the lowered threshold in effect. They should pray that the Consitutional Court strikes the 3% clause down as well in the coming weeks.

That AfD number does look realistic, though...

Not if you look at these recent state polls:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=170930.msg4019866#msg4019866

[palandio]

Elections on different administrative levels may have their own dynamics.

Regarding AfD performance on European and on state level a different amount of support seems very plausible because European politics is the core issue for the AfD (at least in the public perception). (UKIP might be similar.)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Elections on different administrative levels may have their own dynamics.

Those were state-level European election polls.

[Franknburger]

The AfD yesterday held their party congress on the EP election. As expected, economist Bernd Lucke will head the list. Their no. 2 will be Hans-Olaf Henkel, former president of the Association of German Industries. Following months of internal struggle, the outcome is regarded as victory of the moderate wing over right-wing extremists.

it will be interesting to watch how that works out electorally:  Lucke and Henkel are both Hamburg-based protestants, who might appeal to East Germans, but could have a hard time in Cathoilc southern Germany. As president of the Association of German Industries, Henkel had been known for union-bashing, and is probably not the best choice if you want to appeal to disaffected blue collar voters. The ticket should  primarily target fiscally and economically conservative voters, i.e. potential FDP and northern German CDU electorate.

1940-boorn H.O. Henkel is actually a pretty oscillating personality. Generally of the Steinbrück "talk first, then contain the damage" type, he loves to polarise and place himself at the centre of controversies. He is, however, anything but a social conservative. In his memoirs, he talks about several parties in 1960s Hamburg where he met the Beatles (he was a good friend of the hairdresser and photographer who provided the Beatles with their famous moptop haircut), and there is sufficient account from other sources showing that these parties were anything but drug-free. Henkel openly promotes equal rights for LGBT. As former IBM senior executive, he has lived many years in the US and in Paris, and, while euro-sceptic, is decidedly pro-American and pro-European. He used to be CEO of IBM Europe, and was member of the supervisory board of Bayer, Continental, Daimler Aerospace, and a number of other German and Swiss companies.  If you look for an international comparison, Mitt Romney is probably the character Henkel is coming most closely to.

[Keystone Phil]

Any fairly recent polls out of Italy?

Only news I've seen was FdI running under the old AN banner with Forza Italia and Nuovo Centrodestra and Lega Nord stating the obvious (they'll be teaming up with Le Pen and Wilders).

[palandio]

Elections on different administrative levels may have their own dynamics.

Those were state-level European election polls.

Oh sorry, I didn't arrive at the idea that they could make state level polls about the EP elections.
But the state level polls seem a bit fluked when taken together:

Hamburg:
CDU 26 (down from 29.7 last time, down from 32.1 in the federal election)
SPD 35 (up from 25.4 last time, up from 32.4 in the federal election)
Greens 16 (down from 20.5 last time, up from 12.7 in the federal election)
Left 9 (up from 6.7 last time, up from 8.8 in the federal election)
FDP 6 (down from 11.1 last time, up from 4.8 in the federal election)
AfD 4 (down from 4.2 in the federal election)
Others 4 (down from 6.6 last time, down from 5.0 in the federal election)

Bavaria:
CSU 50 (up from 48.1 last time, up from 49.3 in the federal election)
SPD 22 (up from 12.9 last time, up from 20.0 in the federal election)
Greens 12 (up from 11.5 last time, up from 8.4 in the federal election)
Left not mentioned (last time was 2.3, federal election was 3.
FDP 3 (down from 9.0 last time, down from 5.1 in the federal election)
AfD 3 (down from 4.3 in the federal election)
Others [incl. Free Voters] 10 (down from 18.5 last time, up from 9.1 in the federal election)

So my take:
CDU clearly too low in Hamburg, CSU slightly too high in Bavaria,
SPD too high,
Greens might be realistic for an EP election,
Left a bit exaggerated in Hamburg, a bit underestimated in Bavaria,
FDP too high in Hamburg, too low in Bavaria,
AfD internally consistent, but a bit surprising,
the numbers about "others" are quite consistent, but maybe a bit low for an EP election.

[Middle-aged Europe]

If you look for an international comparison, Mitt Romney is probably the character Henkel is coming most closely to.

Why not Ross Perot?

[Franknburger]

Hamburg:
CDU 26 (down from 29.7 last time, down from 32.1 in the federal election)
SPD 35 (up from 25.4 last time, up from 32.4 in the federal election)
Greens 16 (down from 20.5 last time, up from 12.7 in the federal election)
Left 9 (up from 6.7 last time, up from 8.8 in the federal election)
FDP 6 (down from 11.1 last time, up from 4.8 in the federal election)
AfD 4 (down from 4.2 in the federal election)
Others 4 (down from 6.6 last time, down from 5.0 in the federal election)

So my take:
CDU clearly too low in Hamburg, CSU slightly too high in Bavaria,
SPD too high,
Greens might be realistic for an EP election,
Left a bit exaggerated in Hamburg, a bit underestimated in Bavaria,
FDP too high in Hamburg, too low in Bavaria,
AfD internally consistent, but a bit surprising,
the numbers about "others" are quite consistent, but maybe a bit low for an EP election.

The Hamburg numbers look in general o.k. to me. In the 2011 state election (57% turnout), the CDU received 21.9%. Their 2013 Federal Election result was extraordinary well and owed to Angela Merkel - in a generic election, like for the EP, they should come in considerably lower. With more than a quarter of their Hamburg voters older than 70 years, some "natural" decrease against the last EP election, and/or mobilisation problems (in the literal meaning of the word) shouldn't be ruled out at all.
Conversely, the SPD received 48.4% in the 2011 state election, so 35% for them is well achievable (their Hamburg electorate tends to be relatively old, turnout is an issue, but not as much as in other places).
FDP should get some "sorry, didn't mean to throw you out completely" boost. They received 6.7% in the 2011 state election, when their Federal image was already damaged, and  they hadn't been member of the previous state parliament. Actually, considering that (remaining) FDP voters are rather loyal, low overall turnout could even make a result in the 8-9% range probable. Depends of course a bit on the AfD (especially as they are now running as Hamburg party), and whether some "shy AfD voters" are hiding behind the FDP name.
Linke may in fact include some respondents that will ultimately vote for "others" (especially Pirates and Die PARTEI), but otherwise I don't see much reason why they should perform substantially worse than in the Federal election. Many of their strongholds already had a rather low turnout (<60%) in the federal election.

Can't comment on Bavaria. I guess the key question there is where FW voters will end up, if they vote at all. 

[Tender Branson]

"voter registration" is a bit misleading here, because in most countries an automatic voter register exists in which people do not have to register. Which means there's a deadline when the voter list is compiled, but that includes also people eligible to vote after the deadline.

[Franzl]

Out of interest, which countries do not have automatic "registration"?

[Tender Branson]

Out of interest, which countries do not have automatic "registration"?

In the EU ?

All I guess, but I'm not 100% sure.

[Franzl]

Out of interest, which countries do not have automatic "registration"?

In the EU ?

All I guess, but I'm not 100% sure.

Only asking because you said "most" in your previous post

[Tender Branson]

Out of interest, which countries do not have automatic "registration"?

In the EU ?

All I guess, but I'm not 100% sure.

Only asking because you said "most" in your previous post

I know, but that's the problem:

I'm not 100% sure, because the voting law is not uniform EU-wide.

Do we want it to be this way (at least for EP elections a centralized voting database) ?

Don't think it would be a bad idea, especially if we European posters argue for a centralized voting system/database with uniform standards in the US too ...

[Franzl]

Out of interest, which countries do not have automatic "registration"?

In the EU ?

All I guess, but I'm not 100% sure.

Only asking because you said "most" in your previous post

I know, but that's the problem:

I'm not 100% sure, because the voting law is not uniform EU-wide.

Do we want it to be this way (at least for EP elections a centralized voting database) ?

Don't think it would be a bad idea, especially if we European posters argue for a centralized voting system/database with uniform standards in the US too ...

Perhaps, if the EU elections were actually in any way relevant. I wouldn't go to the trouble of standardizing everything for the farce that they are.

[Tender Branson]

Out of interest, which countries do not have automatic "registration"?

In the EU ?

All I guess, but I'm not 100% sure.

Only asking because you said "most" in your previous post

I know, but that's the problem:

I'm not 100% sure, because the voting law is not uniform EU-wide.

Do we want it to be this way (at least for EP elections a centralized voting database) ?

Don't think it would be a bad idea, especially if we European posters argue for a centralized voting system/database with uniform standards in the US too ...

Perhaps, if the EU elections were actually in any way relevant. I wouldn't go to the trouble of standardizing everything for the farce that they are.

I just want an efficient and well-done election system in all member countries, no matter if the election itself is a farce or not ...

Technically I think it wouldn't be much of a problem setting up a EU-wide database of eligible voters: The member countries would only have to submit their national data to the EU institution, which would cross-check the national files for double-entries.

Legally on the other hand, I don't know if some national/EU laws would have to be changed for such a EU-wide database ...

[freek]

Out of interest, which countries do not have automatic "registration"?

In the EU ?

All I guess, but I'm not 100% sure.

In the UK and in Ireland voter registration is not automatic, as far as I know.

[Tender Branson]

Out of interest, which countries do not have automatic "registration"?

In the EU ?

All I guess, but I'm not 100% sure.

In the UK and in Ireland voter registration is not automatic, as far as I know.

I think that in the UK the "head of the household" needs to register all people in the household with the electoral register or pay a fine of up to 2500 £.

Maybe the English posters could clarify this.

[Beezer]

Only 20,000 people have taken part in the Greens' primary.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/geringe-beteiligung-bei-gruenen-urwahl-zu-europa-spitzenkandidatur-a-945792.html

[Yeahsayyeah]

The voting was (exclusively) via mobile phone, so many people I know were very reluctant to take part.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The voting was (exclusively) via mobile phone, so many people I know were very reluctant to take part.

Well, what you get exlusively via mobile phone is your password for the voting website. So the process is just designed in a too complicated manner. Besides, almost nobody knows who these candidates are. Even the two Germans candidates in the primary are virtually unknown among German voters. So you have the give the Greens your phone number in order to vote for people you don't know and don't care about.

At least the upcoming nomination of the German candidate list could prove interesting. If Ska Keller wins the primary, it's possible that she tries to run against Rebecca Harms for list position no. 1. In addition, Green MEP Sven Giegold has announced his intention to run against European Green party chairman Reinhard Bütikofer for list position no. 2 if Rebecca Harms manages to get nominated for spot no. 1.

Anyway, you still have 1 hour and 15 minutes to cast your vote in the Green primary.

[Diouf]

Scotland EU poll. ICM for the Scotsman on Sunday/Scotsman



Such an result will mean three SNP MEPs (+1), two Labour MEPs (=), and one Conservative (=). Lib Dems will lose their MEP.

[swl]

I tried to vote on the first day, it was not working and I gave up.

I don't know about the German candidates in Germany, but at least José Bové is very famous in France, probably more known than Barroso, Schultz or Van Rompuy. It would definitly boost EELV in France if he is nominated.

[Franknburger]

I don't know about the German candidates in Germany, but at least José Bové is very famous in France, probably more known than Barroso, Schultz or Van Rompuy. It would definitly boost EELV in France if he is nominated.

Rebecca Harms is not that well known, but at least she was on the radio today commenting on the situation in Ukraine (she is member of the EU Parliament delegation that currently tries to broker some agreement there). Bütikofer has been heading the German Greens from 2002 to 2008, and also has the sort of name you tend to recall, but, in all fairness, that's almost the only thing I am recalling about him ...