EP elections 2014

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hi!

As I have udnerstand Germany will have a 3 % threshold in the EP Elections 2014.

This will imply that the extreme right will fail to get any sets in Germany, as might the eurosceptic AFD and The Pirates. My guess is that the AFD might get more than 3%.

Does anyone know if italy will keep its 4 %???

There hasn't been any change in legislation as far as I know.

[FredLindq]

A 4 % treshold in Italy would imply that only six parties migh get seats. Were three off them ar close to the threshold (SC, SEL and LN).
PD 28%
PDL 26%
M5 17%
SC (Monti) 6%
SEL 5%
LN  5%

About France. Will they keep their electoral districts i.e. regions? What has this implied when the seats has been distributed, more seats to larger parties?

[Zanas]

Yes, France is keeping inter-regional irrelevant to anyone constituencies. This translates into more seats for larger parties indeed. For example, last time, in the Centre constituency (Limousin, Centre, Massif central) where only five seats were at stake, the Modem and the FG, while getting as much as 8 % each, didn't get any seats.

[FredLindq]

As I understand MPF got less than 5% nationally but still got a seat in 2009. Is it a 5% threshold per region?

I guess that this will help UMP, FN and PS.

Is it the same in the UK i.e. regional elctoral districts which "helps" larger partiets getting more seats?

[Hash]

As I understand MPF got less than 5% nationally but still got a seat in 2009. Is it a 5% threshold per region?

I guess that this will help UMP, FN and PS.

Yes, the 5% threshold is per region. Because these regional constituencies have few seats, of course, the real regional threshold (like in Spanish general elections) is much higher especially in the Massif-Centre (without mentioning the 3-seater overseas).

Libertas (MPF-CPNT) got one seat in 2009 (the Viscount) because the MPF's vote was concentrated in Philippe de Villiers' native department of the Vendee (33%) and a bit in neighbouring regions, allowing it to win 10.3% in the West region.

Discussions about France would be better in the dedicated thread...

[FredLindq]

Any news on which grpup NVA (Belgium), Ol (Slovakia), AFD (Germany), TS (Austria) might join? The ECR or even the EFD?

What about a new extreme right group, which parties might join it?

[Tender Branson]

Any news on which grpup NVA (Belgium), Ol (Slovakia), AFD (Germany), TS (Austria) might join? The ECR or even the EFD?

What about a new extreme right group, which parties might join it?

Team Stronach hasn't even announced yet if they'll run for the EP next year.

HP Martin and the BZÖ didn't announce anything either.

The EU elections are definitely a non-issue here, considering the coming federal elections.

There has not even been a poll for the EU elections yet, maybe after October ...

[FredLindq]

Why would not Stronach and Hans Peter Martin not stand?

[Tender Branson]

Why would not Stronach and Hans Peter Martin not stand?

Stronach focuses on the federal election and if he does underwhelmingly there (which I think could be the case), he might lose interest in elections here and especially for the EU and go back to Canada. Besides, Stronach would have no visible front-runner for the EU elections.

Hans-Peter Martin has been at the EU Parliament for the last 15 years, he could retire. Besides, he the guy who campaigned for transparency and against corruption, is now in corruption/transparency-related problems as well and the Austrian Corruption Prosecution is investigating against him and preparing a trial. So, he could refuse to run as well.

But, I could be wrong on both. Let's wait and see.

[FredLindq]

Sounds strange, but anyway...

Any news about alliances in Italy (many small parties will fail to cross 4%) and Spain between regional parties?

[FredLindq]

Ok some info and predictions from Sweden

My last ”Poll off Polls” (an average of the four major opinion polls in Sweden) gives this numbers:
The Alliance
Moderaterna (M, liberal-conservative, EPP) 27,0 %
Folkpartiet (FP, liberal, ALDE) 5,9 %
Centerpartiet (C, liberal, former agrarian, ALDE) 3,8 %
Kristdemokraterna (KD, Christdemocratic, EPP) 4,0 %

The Red-Green Bloc
Socialdemokraterna (S, Socialdemocrats, S&D) 33,0 %
Vänsterpartiet (V, Socialist, far left EUL or NGL) 6,6 %
Mijöpartiet (MP, Green party, Green-EFA) 10,3 %

Others
Sverigedemokraterna (SD, nationalist far right) 8,4 %
Others 1,1 %

However the turnout is much lower (45,5 % in 2009) than in the national elections (82,1 % in 2010). The social democrats has got approximately 10% less than in the national polls in the EP-elections, depending if another party pops up like Junilistan (EU skeptical IND/DEM) in 2004 and Piratpartiet (pirates, green) in 2009. Normally it looses 5% to MP and 2% to V i.e. to the left and green EU-skeptical parties.

Moderaterna also tend to do worse than in the national polls. In 1999 (together with Kristdemokraterna) and 2009 it lost approximately 8% to Folkpartiet i.e. to the pro-EU liberals due to a strong candidate (MaritPaulsen). I might loose more if another party pups up.

The big question is if another party pops up like Junilistan 14,5 % in 2004 and Piratpartiet 7,1 % in 2009. If so the Moderaterna and Folkpartiet will contribute to less than half off it votes and Socialdemokraterna to more than half of it votes. Will the third party be Sverigedmokraterna which is already polling 8 %, will they get even more support than in then national polls? Or will it be another party like a comeback off Junilistan or Piratpartiet? No matter what the main loser will be Socialdemokraterna and Moderaterna. 

I think we could a four sceanrios:
1 Normal
2 Normal and FP wins from M
3 A third party pops up and FP wins from M
4 SD gets more votes, a third part pops up and FP wins from M

Party   Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4
S   26% (5)   26% (5)   22% (4)   19% (4)
M   25% (5)   17% (3)   17% (3)   15% (3)
FP   6% (1)   14% (3)   13% (3)   13% (2)
MP   15,5% (3)   15,5% (3)   15,5% (3)   15,5% (3)
V   8,5% (2)   8,5% (2)   8,5% (2)   8,5% (2)
C   4% (1)   4% (1)   4% (1)   4% (1)
KD   4% (1)   4% (1)   4% (1)   4% (1)
SD   8,5% (2)   8,5% (2)   8,5% (2)   13,5% (3)
Third party      7% (1)   7% (1)
Others    2,5%   2,5%   0,5%   0,5%

[Velasco]

GESOP poll (via twitter):

PP 32.1% 20-21 seats; PSOE 28.5% 17-18 seats; IU 12.4% 7-8 seats; UPyD 9% 5-6 seats; Others 18% 3-4 seats.

El Periódico de Catalunya released a poll (GESOP too) for the general elections. PP would fall from 186 to 118-122 and PSOE from 110 to 104-107, whereas IU would rise from 11 to 48-50 and UPyD from 5 to 31-33. In Catalonia CiU would get 11-12 (16 in 2011) and ERC 7-9 (3).

http://www.elperiodico.com/es/noticias/politica/barometro-espana-gesop-julio-2465809

[Tender Branson]

I don't know a lot of Spanish, but I think this is not an EU-Parliament poll but rather a poll for the next Spanish parliamentary election ...

[Velasco]

I don't know a lot of Spanish, but I think this is not an EU-Parliament poll but rather a poll for the next Spanish parliamentary election ...

Yes, the poll linked above is for the general (parliamentary) elections, as I said before. The poll for the EP elections is not released yet (likely it will appear tomorrow in El Periódico), but the pollster advanced the results in its Twitter wall.

https://twitter.com/_GESOP

[traininthedistance]

Looking on Wikipedia a bit, I have to say that UPyD sticks out like a sore thumb of sanity among the other unaffiliated parties, which seem to basically all be far-right nationalists.

Why aren't they in a group, and what sort of group would they be most likely to be a part of?  It seems to me that they'd fit in well enough with the liberals/centrists, no? There have to be some other parties they would ally with.

[Diouf]

Looking on Wikipedia a bit, I have to say that UPyD sticks out like a sore thumb of sanity among the other unaffiliated parties, which seem to basically all be far-right nationalists.

Why aren't they in a group, and what sort of group would they be most likely to be a part of?  It seems to me that they'd fit in well enough with the liberals/centrists, no? There have to be some other parties they would ally with.

I guess the reason why they aren't in the liberal group is that it contains the EAJ-PNV and CDC, who is the biggest party in the CiU coalition. UpyD wants a unitary Spanish state and does not want anything to do with the parties promoting a bigger autonomy or even independence for parts of Spain. They would of course not join the regionalists in the green group and the EPP contains UDC, the other part of CiU. Finally, the funder of the party Rosa Diez broke out from the Socialists, the PSOE, to start up the UpyD party so there's probably some mutual dislike between them. So this basically leaves no group for them to join.

[traininthedistance]

Looking on Wikipedia a bit, I have to say that UPyD sticks out like a sore thumb of sanity among the other unaffiliated parties, which seem to basically all be far-right nationalists.

Why aren't they in a group, and what sort of group would they be most likely to be a part of?  It seems to me that they'd fit in well enough with the liberals/centrists, no? There have to be some other parties they would ally with.

I guess the reason why they aren't in the liberal group is that it contains the EAJ-PNV and CDC, who is the biggest party in the CiU coalition. UpyD wants a unitary Spanish state and does not want anything to do with the parties promoting a bigger autonomy or even independence for parts of Spain. They would of course not join the regionalists in the green group and the EPP contains UDC, the other part of CiU. Finally, the funder of the party Rosa Diez broke out from the Socialists, the PSOE, to start up the UpyD party so there's probably some mutual dislike between them. So this basically leaves no group for them to join.

If it wasn't for the various intra-Spain scuffles with CiU and PSOE, do you think they would or could join either of those groups?  From a distance, it seems to me like they'd fit best on the left wing of the liberal group, but I'm not sure.  And are there any other parties in Europe that have a similar focus as them, i.e. anti-regional, especially a liberal-progressive critique of regionalism?

(I'm especially interested to see if Hashemite has anything to say about them.)

[Leftbehind]

I don't get why dislike for a national party within a pan-national party stop them from joining it?

[Zanas]

I don't get why dislike for a national party within a pan-national party stop them from joining it?

People are idiots. That's why.

[FredLindq]

As some as said hear earlier there might be a semi left group with M5, UpYD and others like the semi left radical group between 94-99. However M5 is anti EU and might find that this opion is not comspible with UpYD. And they need to find allies from many more countries. A extreme right/nationalistic group seems more possible.

[Velasco]

I don't get why dislike for a national party within a pan-national party stop them from joining it?

National politics, obviously.

There was a sour dispute between PP and PNV about ten years ago, both in the EPP and the Christian Democrat International. PNV was a founding member of the latter and nowadays is out, because PP forced CDI to expel the rival party. I have not a clue about UPyD's final destination in the EP. On the paper, without being strictly liberal but "progressive" according to its own name and as its bylaws indicate, the party might fit in the ALDE. Many people inside identify themselves like "liberal" or "socialdemocrat", but also there's a controversy among the media and the public opinion (the latter vary from "center-left" to "right", depending on the region, some polls suggest) about UPyD's position in the political spectrum. Differences of appreciation might be due to the association between centralism and right that exist among certain people and in some places of Spain. Also on the paper, the party would not be so different from British Lib Dems, but I'd say there are significant differences on how the latter deals with Scotland, Wales and NI and how UPYD deals with Catalonia or Basque Country. Contexts are pretty different in UK and Spain as well.

On a sidenote, I laughed a lot with certain article in "The Economist" predicting that the atomization of the vote showed by the polls in Spain might lead to "paella coalitions".

[FredLindq]

The Economist were quite wrong there. I think PSOE would have a majority with IU and left regional parties or PP with centre right regional parties. So no Paella! :-) What about the alliances of regional parties in the EP. Read that CiU, PNV and CC Will cooperate again. What about the left regional parties?!

[Diouf]

A new DYM poll for Spain. Unsurprisingly, the two main parties both suffer. A lot of support for IU while UpyD scores relatively low compared to most of the national polls. I guess IU takes home a lot of the anti EU-austerity voters, while UpyD might not be seen as that different from the two big parties on European policy.

[FredLindq]

But this Poll do not consider parties like CC, Aralar, Equo, BNV and allies, Citudanos etc

[Diouf]

But this Poll do not consider parties like CC, Aralar, Equo, BNV and allies, Citudanos etc

I believe that they have just written the names of the parties who will be represented instead of the name of the alliances which people might not recognize and might not be exactly the same this time around. So the vote for CC will be under CiU + PNV etc. Bloque Nacionalista Galego did not get a seat last time around, but as they are mentioned here and the coalition gets 3, one of them is predicted to go their way.