EP elections 2014

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Sad times in Belgium as her largest party - the N-VA Flemish Nationalists - is being barred from the Greens EFA group. They've ruled out the far left, the eurosceptics and the far-right - I suppose either EPP or ALDE will let them in?

Why've they been thrown out?

Because they've drifted rightwards and so look increasingly odd. Apparently the two Belgian Green parties suggested they leave.

[Zinneke]

Sad times in Belgium as her largest party - the N-VA Flemish Nationalists - is being barred from the Greens EFA group. They've ruled out the far left, the eurosceptics and the far-right - I suppose either EPP or ALDE will let them in?

Why've they been thrown out?

Because they've drifted rightwards and so look increasingly odd. Apparently the two Belgian Green parties suggested they leave.

N-VA used to be a sub-group of CD&V (Flemish Christian Democrats, light nationalists) and have always had a conservative-liberal backbone to their nationalism (There used to be a left-wing nationalist party called Spirit but they're in Groen now). When they split from CD&V, the latter got very cross and managed to get N-VA kicked out of the EPP.

Thing is N-VA had only one MEP at the time anyway and she was actually to the left of the party and on good terms with the Belgian Greens and more importantly wasn't a hardcore Flemish nationalist (she's from Limburg). I talked to an ecolo MEP and he said it was a potential PR disaster (a Walloon party sitting in the same group as a Flemish nationalist party) but they didn't want her in the non-inscrits because she was europhile, limburgish and did a lot of good work.

Anyway she is no longer MEP as she was elected as mayor of Bilzen and now N-VA are set to get more seats with a way more right-wing list than the last time out (since De Wever is riding on the tide of right-wing populism). They look set to join the ECR although that could get embarrassing for Cameron with the Scotland debate. Personally, I think they should just rejoin the EPP because they are not eurosceptic (yet).

I think Ecolo and the way that other Walloon parties have kept questioning them as to why they sit with Flemish nationalists both in EP and in federal government opposition is the realpolitik nature of what just happened. This is what happens in campaigning time I guess...

[Keystone Phil]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

What the hell are you talking about? There have been plenty of elections which the right lost.

In fact, right won all European elections. Left never won any.
[/quote]

He said "the first election", without precising the type. And regardless, the left actually won the 2004 European elections.
[/quote]

I clearly said "since 1994" and seeing as this is a thread about European Parliamentary elections, I figured the bright people around here would know what type I was referring to.

This is not how coalitions work in Italy. Some parties in the left alliance were affiliated with ALDE or even EPP.

Cool! Maybe you can post that in the Italy thread when we're talking about Italy. My question was about EP elections.

[Diouf]

N-VA used to be a sub-group of CD&V (Flemish Christian Democrats, light nationalists) and have always had a conservative-liberal backbone to their nationalism (There used to be a left-wing nationalist party called Spirit but they're in Groen now). When they split from CD&V, the latter got very cross and managed to get N-VA kicked out of the EPP.

Thing is N-VA had only one MEP at the time anyway and she was actually to the left of the party and on good terms with the Belgian Greens and more importantly wasn't a hardcore Flemish nationalist (she's from Limburg). I talked to an ecolo MEP and he said it was a potential PR disaster (a Walloon party sitting in the same group as a Flemish nationalist party) but they didn't want her in the non-inscrits because she was europhile, limburgish and did a lot of good work.

Anyway she is no longer MEP as she was elected as mayor of Bilzen and now N-VA are set to get more seats with a way more right-wing list than the last time out (since De Wever is riding on the tide of right-wing populism). They look set to join the ECR although that could get embarrassing for Cameron with the Scotland debate. Personally, I think they should just rejoin the EPP because they are not eurosceptic (yet).

I think Ecolo and the way that other Walloon parties have kept questioning them as to why they sit with Flemish nationalists both in EP and in federal government opposition is the realpolitik nature of what just happened. This is what happens in campaigning time I guess...

The shift that happened when N-VA changed their MEP is also rather obvious when looking at their voting record on votewatch.eu. Frieda Brepoels, the lady from Limburg, voted with the Green/EFA group 77.45% of the times, while her replacement Mark Demesmaeker only voted with the group 62.75% of the times.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I clearly said "since 1994"

Right, because there was no other election in 1994 in Italy besides the EP one.

[You kip if you want to...]

France poll CSA for BFM
FN 24%
UMP 22%
PS 20%
UDI 9%
FG 7.5%
EELV 7%

http://www.bfmtv.com/politique/europeennes-2014-fn-credite-24pour-cent-intentions-vote-761729.html

[Keystone Phil]

I clearly said "since 1994"

Right, because there was no other election in 1994 in Italy besides the EP one.

Again, EP thread.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

This is out of a survey from infratest dimap for ARD. They gave no further fresh numbers concerning the EP than: "For 51 percent of Germans it is personally important or very important, who moves to the European Parliament after 25 May. 47 percent of Germans are thinking that voting in Europe have little or no meaning. For outspoken supporters of the parties in the European elections it has a slightly higher value. In particular, for the followers of the AfD, of which 69 percent classify the election as personally important or very important. Especially since the alternative for Germany could be represented in the European Parliament for the first time."

[Tender Branson]

The band "Snow Patrol" is suing the FPÖ because they used a song called "Love is the way" as their campaign song which has almost the same melody as their song "Run".

The Vienna criminal prosecution office asked the Austrian Parliament to revoke FPÖ leader Strache's immunity as MP so they can prosecute him for plagiarism.

http://m.heute.at/news/politik/art23660,1008324

[Tender Branson]

I recently asked my mum if she'll vote in the election and she replied: "Is there a way to vote for Austria's exit from the EU ?" And I said yeah, "EU-Stop" is on the ballot, which she's now voting for.

I'll probably vote for the Greens or EA.

[Diouf]

Agorà/Ixé poll for Italy



M5S has made significant process in recent weeks, and their polling average is now 25 % according to Electionista. Both the Tsipras list and FdI-AN are hovering around the treshold. The Verhofstadt list is quite far away from the 4 %, but this poll includes an option that was just called Scelta Civica which received 1.4 %. However, the Scelta Civica is a part of the Verhofstadt list and not running on its own AFAIK, so they are probably not that far away. I believe other polls have shown them around 3-3.5 % as well.

43 % answered don't know or will not vote.
 

[Enno von Loewenstern]

A survey for Bavaria. Please notice that Bavaria is the only stronghold for the "Free Voters" which are liberal-conservative and soft euroskeptical. In Germany as a whole they get 1-2%.

CSU 49%
SPD 15%
Greens 11%
Free Voters 7%
AfD 5%
FDP 3%
Others (including "The Left") 10%

I would guess the "Others": Left 2-3%,, BP 2%, ÖDP 1-2%, Pirates 1-2%, NPD 1%, Animal Protection 1%

The CSU is running a strong eurorealistic campagne to the right of the CDU. Their new vice-chairman  is the strong conservative Peter Gauweiler who tried to stop the european integration and the Euro for many times by legal means.

[Keystone Phil]

Agorà/Ixé poll for Italy



M5S has made significant process in recent weeks, and their polling average is now 25 % according to Electionista. Both the Tsipras list and FdI-AN are hovering around the treshold. The Verhofstadt list is quite far away from the 4 %, but this poll includes an option that was just called Scelta Civica which received 1.4 %. However, the Scelta Civica is a part of the Verhofstadt list and not running on its own AFAIK, so they are probably not that far away. I believe other polls have shown them around 3-3.5 % as well.

43 % answered don't know or will not vote.
 

FDI-AN will cross the threshold.

[SPQR]

Far from certain.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

News from Germany:

INSA for FocusOnline

CDU/CSU 36%
SPD 28%
Greens 11%
Left 9%
AfD 7%
FDP 4%
Others 5%

[Tender Branson]

News from Germany:

INSA for FocusOnline

CDU/CSU 36%
SPD 28%
Greens 11%
Left 9%
AfD 7%
FDP 4%
Others 5%

Take 3% from SPD and give it to the Union and you have the correct results.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

News from Germany:

INSA for FocusOnline

CDU/CSU 36%
SPD 28%
Greens 11%
Left 9%
AfD 7%
FDP 4%
Others 5%

Take 3% from SPD and give it to the Union and you have the correct results.

First, a bit of advertising for the German thread :

This survey is for the European elections, but their results make inferences about the upcoming state elections. With 7% for the AFD in the german average, they are so in Saxony at about 10% and in Thuringia and Brandenburg at 7-9% and thus have excellent starting conditions for the forthcoming state elections this year. The FDP with 4% nationwide is thus in Brandenburg and Thuringia at about 2%. In Saxony the FDP is actually stronger (they are there clearly more conservative than the national party) but have there tough competition from (there also significantly more conservative) CDU and the AfD. With the state of today it looks like any good year for the FDP, the AfD on the other hand has all the chances (and of course risks).


Regarding your correction proposal for the poll results: Yes, normally you're right. The SPD has been massively overrated at all last European elections by the polling institutes. It would therefore be justified even this time simply deduct a few percentage points and just give them to the CDU. But I'm not so sure this time, if one can so easily apply. First of all, Merkel is rather strong and virtually undisputed, this will of course help the CDU. On the other hand, the SPD has dominated recent government's policy and with Gabriel and Steinmeier they currently have two medial strong protagonists. In addition, the SPD could benefit from Martin Schultz respectively from the fact that the candidate of the european socialists is german. Furthermore, it is likely to come through the elimination of the 3% barrier to a slight increase of "Others". The AfD will experience a relatively strong mobilization of their core electorate, the question is how far they can reach out to more of there potential. Currently the Newspapers of the center-right (eg FAZ and BILD) try everything to prevent this. It is also still unclear whether the FDP falls back on their core electorate (3%) or, and if so, how much they will benefit from voters who do not want to see them dead. In addition you have to take into account that on the same day there are various local elections, which probably favors the two major parties (because they are much stronger on germanwide Nominations than the smaller ones). And finally, the strong external effects (Ukraine) will affect voter behavior and probably also favor both major parties (just because of that they are in charge), Merkel a bit more, but also the SPD. The only minor parties which could possibly benefit from this conflict are the (for different reasons) somewhat more "Russia friendly" AfD and The Left.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Has media attention been heightened on the minor parties since the abolition of the threshold?

Which ones do you think will enter Parliament? Because my fingers are crossed for DIE PARTIE

[YL]

Let's see whether this works:

Party	Scot.	Wales	NE	Y & H	NW	E Mid	W Mid	SW	East	SE	London
Con	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
Lab	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
Lib Dem	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
UKIP	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
Green	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
BNP	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
NO2EU	x	x		x	x		x		x		x
English Democrats			x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
An Independence from Europe			x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
Harmony Party						x	x			x	x
Christian People's Alliance									x	x	x
Plaid Cymru		x
SNP	x
Yorkshire First				x
Socialist Equality					x
Socialist Labour		x
Socialist Party of GB		x								x
We Demand a Referendum							x
Britain First	x	x
Pirate					x
Liberty Great Britain										x
Peace Party										x
Roman Party.AVE										x
YOURvoice										x
4 Freedoms											x
Animal Welfare											x
Communities United											x
Europeans Party											x
National Health Action											x
National Liberal											x

Mistakes possible of course.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Has media attention been heightened on the minor parties since the abolition of the threshold?

Which ones do you think will enter Parliament? Because my fingers are crossed for DIE PARTIE

The abolition of the threshold has absolutely no effect on the media attention regarding the minor parties.

The Pirates have very serious internal disputes and fights. Their membership numbers have declined almost dramatically and many party officials resign. One reason for this is, among many others, that a more pragmatic, somehow left-liberal wing (who founded the party) who wants the party to move back to their foundation subjects again, must defend itself against a hostile takeover by left-wing extremist groups (Antifa and so-called "Antideutsche" the self declaration as Anti-German maybe shows their insanity). But the good news for you are that there are still enough voters to gain about 2%, which is good for 1, but more likely 2 Pirate MEPs.

The "Free Voters" get some media attention as they have deputies in the Bavarian Landtag, but not so much for their eurpean campagne. Outside of Bavaria they have lost many members and potential voters through the AfD. After a little flip-flop whether Germany should leave the euro they are now in somekind soft EUR-critical and in a small niche in between CSU and AfD. In other topics, center, center-right, pragmatic and somewhat annoying. It will be enough for 1-2% and 1, maybe 2 deputies. The Free Voters female Frontrunner has become member of EDP/ALDE.

The far-right NPD has lost its former chairman, it has financial problems and the government wants to ban it. Established in the 60s as an association of smaller right-wing and far right parties they had until 69 various achievements in state elections and almost representatives in the national parliament (4,3%). Than declined till the 90s as a mixture of sane national conservatives, moderate fascists and a few more or less harmless Wehrmacht nostalgics. After changing the chairman in the mid 90s shifting even more to the far and furthest right, including neo-Nazis and criminals. As of 2004, four successes in state elections in Saxony and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Now declining again.. But the NPD has a electoral base of a bit more than 1%. That's enough for one MEP and little chance of two of them.

Except for these three smaller parties, there is almost no media coverage on the even smaller parties.

And these are the other minor parties (keep in mind, that after the abolition of the threshold the parties now need 0.5796% in order to be sure to win a seat.):

The minor center-right, right-wing and far right parties:

The Republicans (REP), a national conservative party, which had some success on the state level between 1989 and 2001. From 1989 to 1994 they had representatives in the European Parliament. After that, they have reduced steadily and dramatically. Minor strongholds in the south of Germany. At the last general election they had 0.2%. They have a very, very small chance to achieve the required 0.6%.

pro NRW, is a right-wing formation with far right elements from North Rhine-Westphalia, which mainly warns against the dangers of Islamization. They are to the right of the Republicans (their leaders come from the right wing of the REP) and to the left of the NPD. Tey get some media attention through provoking salafists. I give them 1% in North Rhine Westphalia (NRW), but the nationwide required 0.6% for 1 MEP only in very, very fortunate circumstances.

Volksabstimmung, translated Referendum Party, a small national conservative party. Besides the demand for plebiscites it wants to control and limit immigration. Smaller strongholds in two municipalities in North Rhine Westphalia. Had a few minor successes based on their name. Only a small chance.

BüSo, a party of Zepp-LaRouche, a little odd, with technocratic ideas,  a strong tendency to conspiracy theories, a kind of right wing. Absolutely no chance.

Family Party, a minor party of the center right. As the name implies, very limited to the topic of family. Soft social conservatives with a small regional stronghold in some communities of the Saarland. As the animal protection party, some marginal successes by their party name. Small chance for them in this election.

Bavaria Party (BP), a separatist party whose objective is the secession of Bavaria from Germany. Quite successful in the period after 45 to early 60s. After that, until a few years nearly dead now have a slight rise with 2% in Bavaria. The party is right wing, strongly conservative with a few moderate elements. Nationwide actually without great opportunity, but in very, very unusually fortunate circumstances with a small chance.


The competitors of the Greens:

Animal Protection Party, used to be center-right, nowadays a left wing party. Sometimes had marginal success just through their party name, but declined even more in recent years. I see only little chance for them.

ÖDP, an ecological party. Established as a right wing of the Greens, who left the Green Party after the takeover by the left wing. In its further development, they moved further and further towards center and are now more left of center, but still sometimes a bit soft socially conservative. Their strongholds are in the south, especially in Bavaria. I give them 1% or a bit more in Bavaria, but little opportunities nationwide.


The Christian Parties and Christian Right:

PBC, the Party of Bible-abiding Christians is very social conservative and is therefore considered right wing, although it is in matters of immigration and refugees rather left of center. If one can speak of strongholds, which are only marginally (this applies to all listed small parties) then in Baden-Württemberg in some communities. I see little chance for them.

Christian Center (CM), a very small insignificant party of the Christian Right. The formation is a national conservative, social conservative and very poorly organized one. I see absolutely no chance for them.

AUF, a small christian party, national conservative, social conservative, more moderate and less narrow minded than, for example PBC and CM, but more unknown. very little chance.


The Left wing and left wing extremists:

The Party, the party "The Party" is a satirical invention of an editor of the satirical magazine "Titanic". Sometimes amusing, but without any serious intentions. Smaller strongholds in very left wing inner city areas. In federal elections without chance (0.2%). Due to the low turnout and the fact, that voters a much more volatile in the European elections I give them a bit more than a small chance for a deputy.

DKP, German Communist Party, stone age communists of the craziest kind, with nostalgia for the Berlin Wall, defending or denying the crimes of the Stasi and without the slightest chance.

MLPD, Marxist-Leninist Party of Germany, they think that the Soviet Union after Stalin's death was becoming too moderate and a treason to socialism. They accuse his successors to have betrayed left wing principles. They have more money than other small parties, because an activist donated them his inheritance. Nevertheless, no chance.

PSG, Social Equality Party, they admire Trotsky instead of Stalin. Not much more to say about them. They have no chance.


The following parties are with certainty in the next parliament and also above the former threshold of 5%:

CDU, CSU, SPD, Greens, The Left, AfD,

The following parties are with certainty in the next parliament but not above the former threshold of 5%:

FDP, Pirates, Free Voters, NPD

It is more than in question that the following parties reach in the European Parliament. But also not completely impossible:

Republicans, pro NRW, The Party, Bavarian Party, ÖDP

It is more than in question that the following parties reach in the European Parliament also not completely, absolutely, totally impossible, but no sane human being would bet a monthly salary that they do it:

PBC, Animal Protection, Volksabstimmung, Family Party, AUF

I would bet that the following Parties are without any chance:

DKP. MLPD, PRG, CM


Parties which should have joined forces:

REP+proNRW+Volksabstimmung as the only right-wing populist formation (kind of Sweden Democrats). Without a doubt at least 1 MEP.

Family Party+ÖDP as an alternative center-right. Perhaps still not enough for 1 MEP.

Family Party+AUF as an alternative conservative, mildly christian right ( kind of KD). Perhaps still not enough.

PBC+CM+AUF as the only christian, christian right formation (kind of CU/SGP). Perhaps still not enough, but a chance.

DKP with "The Left" (There are already some DKP Comrades as deputies on "The Left" ticket)

[doktorb]

In Wales, "Britain First" is registered with the subheading "Remember Lee Rigby"

[justfollowingtheelections]

I wish I could vote for the Animal Protection Party.

[palandio]

Chances to get at least one seat in my opinion:

CDU, CSU, SPD, Greens, The Left, AfD, FDP, Pirates, Free Voters 100%
NPD 95%
Family Party, Animal Protection 90%
[Pensioners if they would run 75%]
ÖDP 55%
Republicans, pro NRW, DIE PARTEI, Volksabstimmung 25%
Bavaria Party, PBC 5%
AUF, DKP, PRG, MLPD, CM, BüSo 0%

Just look at the 2004 and 2008 results to see that you only need a buzz-word like Animal Protection, Family or Pensioners to get 1% in the European elections. Who would not like to protect this sweet puppy:

I wish I could vote for the Animal Protection Party.

[YL]

Here's something about some of the less familiar party names on the UK ballot papers.  Most of these have no chance of actually winning a seat, though a handful of them might if we were using the German system.

NO2EU is a far-left anti-EU (duh) list associated with the RMT and the late Bob Crow.  They stood in 2009 under this name too.

An Independence from Europe is a UKIP splinter, based around Mike Nattrass MEP, who appear to be deliberately trying to be a spoiler for UKIP: they're even using the description "UK Independence Now" in some areas, which I'm surprised has been allowed.  The weird indefinite article in the name is presumably to get to the top of the ballot paper.

The Harmony Party appear to be yet another anti-EU, anti-immigration outfit.

Yorkshire First want a Yorkshire Parliament, and appear to be essentially a single issue party.  Their lead candidate was on the Lib Dem list last time, and is married to former Lib Dem MEP Diana Wallis: http://www.yorkshirefirst.org.uk/

We Demand a Referendum is the banner of Nikki Sinclaire MEP, who was elected as UKIP and fell out with them.  There had been reports of other candidates, but she's the only one.

Britain First are an Islamophobic far right party.

Liberty Great Britain also seem to be an Islamophobic right-wing outfit.

The Peace Party are a pacifist party with a councillor in Bradford (who defected from Labour) and who did surprisingly well in the Middlesbrough by-election: http://www.peaceparty.org.uk/

The Roman Party.AVE is a creation of a French bus driver who lives in Reading.

4 Freedoms are trying to be a UK branch of the European People's Party.

The Communities United Party are a local party in East London: http://www.communitiesunitedparty.com/

The Europeans Party is a pro-EU, anti-UKIP, party whose candidates are from all over the EU: https://www.facebook.com/europeansparty

The National Health Action Party oppose right-wing NHS "reform": http://nhap.org/

The National Liberals, in spite of their name, are yet another tedious far right outfit, also known as the "Third Way" but nothing to do with Tony Blair.

[SPQR]

It really is quite pathetic that 0.5% is enough to get into the EP.