EP elections 2014

[Leftbehind]

To add to that, some UK polls were commissioned at the start of the year, to be taken with a pinch of salt of course:

ComRes:
LAB 35% (+19), UKIP 23% (+6), CON 22% (-6), LDEM 8% (-6), GRN 5% (-3), Others 8% (-9)
Survation:
LAB 31% (+15), CON 24% (-4), UKIP 22% (+5), LDEM 11% (-3), GRN 6% (-2), Others 6% (-11)
YouGov:
LAB 36% (+20), CON 24% (-4), UKIP 19% (+2), LDEM 12% (-2), GRN 6% (-2), Others 3% (-14)

All of which giving a median of:

LAB 34% (+18), CON 23% (-5), UKIP 21% (+4), LIB 10% (-4), GRN 6% (-2), Others 6% (-11)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Great news if these numbers hold true (well, except for UKIP...).

[Leftbehind]

Great news if these numbers hold true (well, except for UKIP...).

Well you can't fail to notice UKIP's rise correlates with Tory drops, so it's mostly swapping like for like. Labour probably will be nowhere near that, as they'll be disproportionally hit by the usual derisive turnout. I'd be disappointed if the Greens fell from their respectable 8%; was hoping they'd build on it a usurp the Liberals (who are often reduced to their core in Euros).

[Diouf]

Where did you find that poll, Diouf? Maybe I could comment it if I know the source

http://www.lavozdegalicia.es/noticia/opinion/2013/04/19/elecciones-europeas-preocupan-politicos/0003_201304G19P14995.htm

[Diouf]

Danish EP poll made by A&B Analyse:

Venstre (ALDE) 27 % 5 seats
Socialdemokraterne (S&D) 17 % 3 seats
Dansk Folkeparti (EFD) 15.6 % 2 seats
Enhedslisten (GUE-NGL) 7.5 % 1 seat
De Radikale (ALDE) 5.9 % 1 seat
Socialistisk Folkeparti (Green) 4.6 % 1 seat
De Konservative (EPP) 4.3 % 0 seats
Liberal Alliance (presumably ECR) 3.8 % 0 seats
Folkebevægelsen mod EU (GUE-NGL) 3.1 % 0 seats

However, there are a few things to notice. The allocation of seats is made on the presumption that the Liberal Alliance's eurosceptic line means that they won't be in an alliance with Venstre and Konservative like last time. However, if they join that alliance, one seat will move from Socialistisk Folkeparti to Venstre. The poll is also made on the presumption that Enhedslisten will actually run; in earlier years they have just campaigned for the People's Movement against EU, but they are seriously considering running this time and it will be decided on their conference in the next couple of days. If they run, they will probably run in an alliance with the People's Movement, but they will most likely end up killing them as they do in this poll. Enhedslisten's participation in an election will certainly raise the turnout among their regular voters, but it is very questionable whether it will be enough to gain two seats and thereby keep the People's Movement alive.

[politicus]

Danish EP poll made by A&B Analyse:

Venstre (ALDE) 27 % 5 seats
Socialdemokraterne (S&D) 17 % 3 seats
Dansk Folkeparti (EFD) 15.6 % 2 seats
Enhedslisten (GUE-NGL) 7.5 % 1 seat
De Radikale (ALDE) 5.9 % 1 seat
Socialistisk Folkeparti (Green) 4.6 % 1 seat
De Konservative (EPP) 4.3 % 0 seats
Liberal Alliance (presumably ECR) 3.8 % 0 seats
Folkebevægelsen mod EU (GUE-NGL) 3.1 % 0 seats

However, there are a few things to notice. The allocation of seats is made on the presumption that the Liberal Alliance's eurosceptic line means that they won't be in an alliance with Venstre and Konservative like last time. However, if they join that alliance, one seat will move from Socialistisk Folkeparti to Venstre. The poll is also made on the presumption that Enhedslisten will actually run; in earlier years they have just campaigned for the People's Movement against EU, but they are seriously considering running this time and it will be decided on their conference in the next couple of days. If they run, they will probably run in an alliance with the People's Movement, but they will most likely end up killing them as they do in this poll. Enhedslisten's participation in an election will certainly raise the turnout among their regular voters, but it is very questionable whether it will be enough to gain two seats and thereby keep the People's Movement alive.

Its very unlikely that the Red-Green Alliance will run on its own, since this is very unpopular among their grassroots, who are extremely fond of "popular movements".

SD is likely to fall further behind, since this will be a good opportunity for their voters to warn them against the consequences of the governments course without actually risiking anything.

[Diouf]

Its very unlikely that the Red-Green Alliance will run on its own, since this is very unpopular among their grassroots, who are extremely fond of "popular movements".

SD is likely to fall further behind, since this will be a good opportunity for their voters to warn them against the consequences of the governments course without actually risiking anything.

They have indeed just decided NOT TO RUN for the 2014 EP elections. 158 representatives voted for including many of the most prominents MPs, while 220 voted against.

 

[Leftbehind]

Pretty crappy polling for the Left in comparison to 2009, hopefully the decision of Ø to bolster the FmEU alliance will help.

[Diouf]

Geert Wilders announced that his party will try to join other parties to form a group after the next European elections. He says his MEP's have worked hard, but now they must go one step further. He doesn't want to mention names of potential parties to work with, but he talks warmly about Marine Le Pen and the changes she has made in the Front National, especially by getting rid of antisemitism.

I don't think it's very likely that there will be two right-wing Eurosceptic groups after the next election, and if it happens it will probably mean two small groups without too much leverage. One big group could potentially become the fourth-biggest group in the EP, but the question is of course where the line is drawn for members of such a group. I guess that it will to a large extent depend on the UKIP's stance, and they will probably try too avoid too radical parties, especially with an eye on the 2015 British election. I guess PVV could be allowed to join, but it's more doubtful whether Front National, FPÖ etc could join.

[Zanas]

Geert Wilders annouMarine Le Pen and the changes she has made in the Front National, especially by getting rid of antisemitism.

Of course, the Front National hasn't really got rid of antisemitism, they just toned it down and voiced much more on islamophobia instead.

[politicus]

Geert Wilders annouMarine Le Pen and the changes she has made in the Front National, especially by getting rid of antisemitism.

Of course, the Front National hasn't really got rid of antisemitism, they just toned it down and voiced much more on islamophobia instead.

Yes, in our very pro-Zionist DPP Front National is still seen as fascists. I also doubt UKIP will have anything to do with FN. Generally there will have to be two right wing populist groups. The gap between moderates (or parties self identifying as  moderates) and parties with a more radical tradition/history is simply too large.

[politicus]

25 members wont be a problem for the moderates given UKIPs success, and I think they can make the 7 country requirement as well, but the "radicals" will likely not be able to meet those requirements.

A lot will depend on Eastern Europe. Fx what about the Hungarian right wing? What will be their priorities?

I think the backbone of the moderates will be UKIP + the Scandinavians (DPP, True Finns, Sweden Democrats) + the Austrians.

Then they need two more.

FN will have to work primarily with Eastern European parties to build their coalition.

[politicus]

The problem for radicals, is that they lack credible member parties in countries like Spain and Poland and Italy. Futhermore some of their stronger parties, are no more in good form (Belgium, Netherlands, Romania, Bulgaria). On the other hand they may take seats in Sweden and Greece. But if they manage to get their maximal result on the basis of the present parties they would get maximally 30 seats.

I think its certain that Golden Dawn will get in.

Why Sweden? Sweden Democrats would be with the moderates and there is no credible party to their right.

[politicus]

I have always thought that Sweden democrats are easily closer to FPÖ, JOBBIK and PVV than the moderate group.  


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Alliance_for_Freedom

Well, basically its speculation. I just assume there will be some kind of realignment with a broader version of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Movement_for_a_Europe_of_Liberties_and_Democracy including UKIP and Sweden Democrats. It will be in the interest of both parties to distance themselves from the extreme right. The question is if FPÖ will be in this group, they actually consider themselves more moderate than DPP. So its a strange game of exclusion.

Lega Nord is the biggest group in MELD right no, forgot about them.

But Jobbik, FN  and Golden Dawn should be certain as the core of a radical right group.

[Hash]

I highly doubt the FN would ally itself with open neo-Nazis like XA or Jobbik. As much as their "modernization" and so on is based on hot air, they need to maintain the public appearance of a respectable right-populist/nationalist right party rather than an extremist far-right party which allies with neo-Nazis. Under Panzerdaddy, they probably wouldn't have cared as much, but Panzergirl and her apparatchiks care.

[MaxQue]

I highly doubt the FN would ally itself with open neo-Nazis like XA or Jobbik. As much as their "modernization" and so on is based on hot air, they need to maintain the public appearance of a respectable right-populist/nationalist right party rather than an extremist far-right party which allies with neo-Nazis. Under Panzerdaddy, they probably wouldn't have cared as much, but Panzergirl and her apparatchiks care.

Is that really based on thin air? Marine Le Pen doesn't give me a neo-nazi vibe, unlike her father. I doubt she is one.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I highly doubt the FN would ally itself with open neo-Nazis like XA or Jobbik. As much as their "modernization" and so on is based on hot air, they need to maintain the public appearance of a respectable right-populist/nationalist right party rather than an extremist far-right party which allies with neo-Nazis. Under Panzerdaddy, they probably wouldn't have cared as much, but Panzergirl and her apparatchiks care.

Is that really based on thin air? Marine Le Pen doesn't give me a neo-nazi vibe, unlike her father. I doubt she is one.

The Le Pens have never been really neonazis, they are more in the mold of the traditional French far-right, the tradition that goes from Maurras to Poujadism (Le Pen was first elected on Poujade's lists) and to "Algérie française" nuts. Traditionalism, anti-parliamentarism, reactionary positions on every possible issue, and "real France" rhetoric are its main components.

[Gary J]

The impression I get is that UKIP want to be the most xenophobic nationalist party they can be, without toppling over into totalitarian and neo-nazi or fascist territory. This is not a mindset that will make it easy to build alliances with groups from other European countries.

[politicus]

The impression I get is that UKIP want to be the most xenophobic nationalist party they can be, without toppling over into totalitarian and neo-nazi or fascist territory. This is not a mindset that will make it easy to build alliances with groups from other European countries.

I see them as a fairly mainstream right wing populist party with the usual "longing" for respectability. If they want to challenge the Tories going far right is not going to work.

[Lasitten]

This is kind of interesting although the list of parties isn't complete.

http://www.debatingeurope.eu/voteblog/

[freek]

I have always thought that Sweden democrats are easily closer to FPÖ, JOBBIK and PVV than the moderate group. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Alliance_for_Freedom

I have never really understood why PVV didn't join the EFD group in the European Parliament, but remained non-inscrits by choice.

[Leftbehind]

This is kind of interesting although the list of parties isn't complete.

http://www.debatingeurope.eu/voteblog/

You have to register, just to fill out a glorified questionnaire? F' that.

[YL]

I wouldn't have thought that any party with pretensions to respectability would ally with either Golden Dawn or Jobbik.  So I assume those two (assuming they get in) will be left as Non-Inscrits.

[Lasitten]

This is kind of interesting although the list of parties isn't complete.

http://www.debatingeurope.eu/voteblog/

You have to register, just to fill out a glorified questionnaire? F' that.

Yep, I was surprised that you have to register or use your Facebook-account.

[Leftbehind]

I have never really understood why PVV didn't join the EFD group in the European Parliament, but remained non-inscrits by choice.

Presumably PVV's whole line about protecting Dutch liberal society from reactionary muslim hordes would be undermined by joining a group full of reactionaries?