EP elections 2014

[Velasco]

I haven't seen polls for the EP in Spain. However, several polls for General and regional elections have been released lately.

For general elections, the CIS April barometer gives the following results: PP 34%; PSOE 28.2%; IU- Plural Left 9.9%; UPyD 7.4%; CiU (Catalonia) 3.4%; ERC (Cat) 2%; PNV (Basque Country) 1.2%; Amaiur (BC) 0.9%.

Celeste-Tel gives the following prediction. May and (April) polls: PP 30.5%(30.4); PSOE 26.7% (27.1); IU 14% (13.9); UPyD 8.9% (8.6); CiU 3% (3.2%); ERC 2.2% (2.1); Ciutadans (Catalonia) 1.7% (1.6); Amaiur 1.6% (1.6); PNV 1.5% (1.5); Compromís (Valencia) 1.6% (1.7); Equo 1.3% (1.3); CC-NC (Canaries) 1.1% (1.0). Other forces are under 1%. Estimated turnout 46.6% (44.1).

In Madrid Metroscopia (El País) predicts that PP (35.2%) wins but loses the majority and a strong increase of IU's support (18.9%), which would be almost tied with PSOE (20.1%). Increase for UPyD as well (10.4%), altough in a moderate way if compared with the IU. The poll gives Equo a 3.8%, under the 5% regional threshold.

[Leftbehind]

Nice to see the IU momentum.

[Lasitten]

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[Diouf]

Harris Interactive/LCP poll for France (2009 results)

UMP 23 % (27.88 together with NC/UDI)
PS 21 % (16.48)
FN 18 % (6.34)
EELV 10 % (16.28)
UDI 8 % (27.88 together with UMP)
FdG 8 % (6.48)
MoDem 6 % (8.46)

UDI is Union des démocrates et indépendants. It seems pretty much like an UMP offspring, and includes several members from the Nouveau Centre that ran together with UMP in 2009. They are members of the EPP as well.
No calculation of the approximate number of seats. Obviously big progress for the FN, whom I guess would get around 15-16 seats on such a result. Currently they have three.

[You kip if you want to...]

UK poll

UKIP 27% (+11%)
Labour 23% (+7%)
Tories 21% (-7%)
Liberals 18% (+4%)

[Leftbehind]

lol wat. A 11% swing from Lab >Lib since their last poll in January?!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

haha, comres.

[Leftbehind]

It seems there was another Survation poll this month too, to add them in:

ComRes
Jan:
LAB 35% (+19), UKIP 23% (+6), CON 22% (-6), LDEM 8% (-6), GRN 5% (-3), Others 8% (-9)
May:
UKIP 27% (+11), LAB 23% (+7), CON 21% (-7), LDEM 18% (+4), GRN 5% (-3), Others 6% (-11)

Survation:
Jan:
LAB 31% (+15), CON 24% (-4), UKIP 22% (+5), LDEM 11% (-3), GRN 6% (-2), Others 6% (-11)
May:
LAB 31% (+15), UKIP 30% (+13), CON 20% (-8), LDEM 8% (-6), GRN 6% (-2), Others 5% (-12)

YouGov:
LAB 36% (+20), CON 24% (-4), UKIP 19% (+2), LDEM 12% (-2), GRN 6% (-2), Others 3% (-14)

lol

[Tender Branson]

There's a new Eurobarometer poll out about Young Voters voting in the EP elections next year:

http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/flash/fl_375_en.pdf

[Leftbehind]

I note the UK youths polled are the worst in the EU27 for saying they haven't voted in the past three years, and most likely to say they 'never vote' - confirms what I thought.

[Velasco]

Metroscopia (El País) poll for the EP elections in Spain:

PP wins by a narrow 1.2% margin over PSOE, losing a 15% (down 7 seats) whereas PSOE loses a 12.6% (down 7 seats). IU-ICV gains an 11% (up 7 seats) in comparison with 2009 and UPyD gains a 7.4% (up 5 seats).

As for the others, the poll is made with the prior assumption of the same 2009 coalitions running again with the same composition, which is highly unlikely; the coalitions of small nationalistic parties are not defined yet.

Coalition for Europe was comprised by the Catalan CiU, the Basque PNV, the Canarian CC and other regional parties like the Valencian BNV or the Andalusian PA. It would retain 3 seats.

Europe of the Peoples-Greens was made with ERC (Catalonia), BNG (Galicia), Aralar and Eusko Alkartasuna (Basque Country), CHA (Aragon) and the Spanish Confederation of the Greens. It gained 1 seat in 2009 (Oriol Junqueras, ERC) and this poll says that would gain 3 seats in 2014.

Of course the abertzale left in the Basque Country didn't run, with the exception of Aralar (with EA now in EHBildu), but it supported a list called Internationalist Initiative, which got 1.14% of the vote nationwide and no seats.

[Leftbehind]

That'd be a fabulous vote for the Left.

[Franknburger]

Getting back to the "populist right" discussion a bit further up: The eurosceptic "Allianz für Deutschland" is currently polling around 3% for the upcoming German federal election. I could imagine them reaching at least that much, probably quite a bit more, in the 2014 EP elections, especially if they manage to turn that election into a kind of plebiscite on the EU and the Euro. As the 5% threshold has been abolished for EP elections, that would give them at least 3, maybe up to 6/7 seats.

AvD will definitely not join any EP grouping that includes the FN, Golden Dawn and Jobbik (that would kill them instantly in Germany, considering the traditional ties of the NPD to these parties), and might also have issues with the Austrian FPÖ (though most likely not with Team Stronach, should the latter make it into the EP). They should, however, not have much problems with current EFD members.
So, in any calculation for the new EP (no ideas where the forecast is standing right now), you may include one additional member state and 3+ seats from Germany for EFD, or any similar grouping that is to be built without FN.

[Harry Hayfield]

It seems there was another Survation poll this month too, to add them in:

ComRes
Jan:
LAB 35% (+19), UKIP 23% (+6), CON 22% (-6), LDEM 8% (-6), GRN 5% (-3), Others 8% (-9)
May:
UKIP 27% (+11), LAB 23% (+7), CON 21% (-7), LDEM 18% (+4), GRN 5% (-3), Others 6% (-11)

Survation:
Jan:
LAB 31% (+15), CON 24% (-4), UKIP 22% (+5), LDEM 11% (-3), GRN 6% (-2), Others 6% (-11)
May:
LAB 31% (+15), UKIP 30% (+13), CON 20% (-8), LDEM 8% (-6), GRN 6% (-2), Others 5% (-12)

YouGov:
LAB 36% (+20), CON 24% (-4), UKIP 19% (+2), LDEM 12% (-2), GRN 6% (-2), Others 3% (-14)

lol

Averaging them you get: Con 22%, Lab 30%, Lib Dem 13%, UKIP 25%, Greens 6%, Others 4%

which would give you: Lab 25, UKIP 18, Con 16, Lib Dem 7, SNP 2, Green 2

[DC Al Fine]

It seems there was another Survation poll this month too, to add them in:

ComRes
Jan:
LAB 35% (+19), UKIP 23% (+6), CON 22% (-6), LDEM 8% (-6), GRN 5% (-3), Others 8% (-9)
May:
UKIP 27% (+11), LAB 23% (+7), CON 21% (-7), LDEM 18% (+4), GRN 5% (-3), Others 6% (-11)

Survation:
Jan:
LAB 31% (+15), CON 24% (-4), UKIP 22% (+5), LDEM 11% (-3), GRN 6% (-2), Others 6% (-11)
May:
LAB 31% (+15), UKIP 30% (+13), CON 20% (-8), LDEM 8% (-6), GRN 6% (-2), Others 5% (-12)

YouGov:
LAB 36% (+20), CON 24% (-4), UKIP 19% (+2), LDEM 12% (-2), GRN 6% (-2), Others 3% (-14)

lol

Averaging them you get: Con 22%, Lab 30%, Lib Dem 13%, UKIP 25%, Greens 6%, Others 4%

which would give you: Lab 25, UKIP 18, Con 16, Lib Dem 7, SNP 2, Green 2

I take it Nick Griffin won't retain his seat?

[You kip if you want to...]

It seems there was another Survation poll this month too, to add them in:

ComRes
Jan:
LAB 35% (+19), UKIP 23% (+6), CON 22% (-6), LDEM 8% (-6), GRN 5% (-3), Others 8% (-9)
May:
UKIP 27% (+11), LAB 23% (+7), CON 21% (-7), LDEM 18% (+4), GRN 5% (-3), Others 6% (-11)

Survation:
Jan:
LAB 31% (+15), CON 24% (-4), UKIP 22% (+5), LDEM 11% (-3), GRN 6% (-2), Others 6% (-11)
May:
LAB 31% (+15), UKIP 30% (+13), CON 20% (-8), LDEM 8% (-6), GRN 6% (-2), Others 5% (-12)

YouGov:
LAB 36% (+20), CON 24% (-4), UKIP 19% (+2), LDEM 12% (-2), GRN 6% (-2), Others 3% (-14)

lol

Averaging them you get: Con 22%, Lab 30%, Lib Dem 13%, UKIP 25%, Greens 6%, Others 4%

which would give you: Lab 25, UKIP 18, Con 16, Lib Dem 7, SNP 2, Green 2

I take it Nick Griffin won't retain his seat?

Very unlikely.

[Harry Hayfield]

It seems there was another Survation poll this month too, to add them in:

ComRes
Jan:
LAB 35% (+19), UKIP 23% (+6), CON 22% (-6), LDEM 8% (-6), GRN 5% (-3), Others 8% (-9)
May:
UKIP 27% (+11), LAB 23% (+7), CON 21% (-7), LDEM 18% (+4), GRN 5% (-3), Others 6% (-11)

Survation:
Jan:
LAB 31% (+15), CON 24% (-4), UKIP 22% (+5), LDEM 11% (-3), GRN 6% (-2), Others 6% (-11)
May:
LAB 31% (+15), UKIP 30% (+13), CON 20% (-8), LDEM 8% (-6), GRN 6% (-2), Others 5% (-12)

YouGov:
LAB 36% (+20), CON 24% (-4), UKIP 19% (+2), LDEM 12% (-2), GRN 6% (-2), Others 3% (-14)

lol

Averaging them you get: Con 22%, Lab 30%, Lib Dem 13%, UKIP 25%, Greens 6%, Others 4%

which would give you: Lab 25, UKIP 18, Con 16, Lib Dem 7, SNP 2, Green 2

I take it Nick Griffin won't retain his seat?

That's correct. Both BNP seats are Labour gains.

[You kip if you want to...]

It seems there was another Survation poll this month too, to add them in:

ComRes
Jan:
LAB 35% (+19), UKIP 23% (+6), CON 22% (-6), LDEM 8% (-6), GRN 5% (-3), Others 8% (-9)
May:
UKIP 27% (+11), LAB 23% (+7), CON 21% (-7), LDEM 18% (+4), GRN 5% (-3), Others 6% (-11)

Survation:
Jan:
LAB 31% (+15), CON 24% (-4), UKIP 22% (+5), LDEM 11% (-3), GRN 6% (-2), Others 6% (-11)
May:
LAB 31% (+15), UKIP 30% (+13), CON 20% (-8), LDEM 8% (-6), GRN 6% (-2), Others 5% (-12)

YouGov:
LAB 36% (+20), CON 24% (-4), UKIP 19% (+2), LDEM 12% (-2), GRN 6% (-2), Others 3% (-14)

lol

Averaging them you get: Con 22%, Lab 30%, Lib Dem 13%, UKIP 25%, Greens 6%, Others 4%

which would give you: Lab 25, UKIP 18, Con 16, Lib Dem 7, SNP 2, Green 2

I take it Nick Griffin won't retain his seat?

That's correct. Both BNP seats are Labour gains.

I had my primary ballot for the North West's number two spot and all candidates were having fun grandstanding on the BNP issue.

[Tender Branson]

A new Austria poll shows that 64% of those polled can't name a single Austrian MEP.

The name recognition rates for all MEP's:

Hannes Swoboda    SPÖ    18%
Othmar Karas    ÖVP    14%
Evelyn Regner    SPÖ    7%
Hans-Peter Martin    MARTIN    7%
Andreas Mölzer FPÖ    5%
Jörg Leichtfried    SPÖ    3%
Ulrike Lunacek    GRÜNE    3%
Ewald Stadler    BZÖ    3%
Josef Weidenholzer    SPÖ    3%
Karin Kadenbach    SPÖ    2%
Paul Rübig    ÖVP    1%
Martin Ehrenhauser    MARTIN    1%
Evelin Lichtenberger    GRÜNE    1%
Heinz Becker    ÖVP    0%
Elisabeth Köstinger    ÖVP    0%
Franz Obermayr    FPÖ    0%
Hubert Pirker    ÖVP    0%
Richard Seeber    ÖVP    0%
Angelika Werthmann    MARTIN    0%

http://www.heute.at/news/politik/art23660,889573

[Tender Branson]

The same pollster about possible turnout:

39% definitely vote (in their 2008 poll: 40%)
42% probably vote (in their 2008 poll: 31%)
  9% probably not vote (in their 2008 poll: 12%)
  8% definitely not vote (in their 2008 poll: 9%)
  2% don't know yet (in their 2008 poll: 7%)

Actual turnout was 46% in the 2009 elections here.

Which means that only those who say they "definitely will vote" turn out and a tiny part of the "probably" voters.

http://www.oegfe.at/cms/uploads/media/PPT_01.pdf

I think turnout next year will be ca. 50% here (+/- 5%).

[Leftbehind]

A new Austria poll shows that 64% of those polled can't name a single Austrian MEP.

Similar to along those lines:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Tender Branson]

A new Austria poll shows that 64% of those polled can't name a single Austrian MEP.

Similar to along those lines:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not surprising, because nobody really cares about the EU or EU elections, other than us.

[You kip if you want to...]

A new Austria poll shows that 64% of those polled can't name a single Austrian MEP.

Similar to along those lines:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not surprising, because nobody really cares about the EU or EU elections, other than us.

I can name 2 of mine and that's only because one of them's Nick Griffin.

[Insula Dei]

Yeah, ours are pretty prominent as well, if only because they include 2 former Prime Ministers and several former party leaders and heavyweights.

[FredLindq]

Hi!

As I have udnerstand Germany will have a 3 % threshold in the EP Elections 2014.

This will imply that the extreme right will fail to get any sets in Germany, as might the eurosceptic AFD and The Pirates. My guess is that the AFD might get more than 3%.

Does anyone know if italy will keep its 4 %???