EP elections 2014

[FredLindq]

I think is a splinter off HSP that sits in EPP. I can report that SD is polling steady around 10% and would get two seats. They have zero now.

[Tender Branson]

Strache had a press conference yesterday on the status of the EAF:

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http://en.europeonline-magazine.eu/austrian-lawmaker-europes-right-wingers-to-cooperate-in-elections_305725.html

[Lasitten]

The first poll about European elections was published today by the public broadcasting company YLE. The result shows that the social democrats are still losing support and the right-wing populist True Finns are on the rise and getting 3 MEPS.

Poll:

National Coalition Party (EPP) 22,7 % (-0,5)
Center Party (ALDE) 21,7 % (+2,7)
The True Finns (?) 17 % (+7,2)
Social Democrats (PES) 15,4 % (-2,1)
The Greens (EG) 8,1 % (-4,3)
Left Alliance (GUE/NGL) 7,1 % (+1,2)
Christian Democrats (EPP) 3,6 (-0,6)
Swedish People's Party (ALDE) 3,5 % (-2,6)
Other 0,9 % (-1,0)

It seems that the traditionally pro-EU parties like Greens and Social Democrats are facing heavy loses :/ Of course I am happy to see that the Left Alliance is growing and it seems that we're going to secure our seat back.

Seats:
National Coalition       3 MEPs (-)
Center Party               3 MEPs (-)
True Finns                   3 MEPs (+2)
Social Democrats        2 MEPs (-)
Greens                       1 MEP (-1)
Left Alliance                1 MEP (+1)
Christian Democrats   0 MEP (-1)
Swedes                      0 MEP (-1)

[Tender Branson]

Some news about who will likely lead the Austrian parties into the EU elections next year and there will definitely be some big changes:

* ÖVP (2009 front-runner: Ernst Strasser, convicted of corruption and sentenced to a prison term)

Likely frontrunners are Othmar Karas or Elisabeth Köstinger (both already MEPs):

 

* SPÖ (2009 front-runner: Johannes Swoboda, will retire)

Likely frontrunners are Jörg Leichtfried or Evelyn Regner (both already MEPs):

 

* FPÖ (2009 front-runner: Andreas Mölzer, won't run again as leading candidate)

Likely frontrunners are Barbara Kappel, Franz Obermayr (already an MEP) and Harald Vilimsky:

 

* Greens (2009 front-runner: Ulrike Lunacek, will be the 2014 frontrunner too)



* Hans-Peter Martin:



* NEOS (no frontrunner yet, they will hold online primaries in early 2014)

Likely front-runners are Beate Meinl-Reisinger, Claudia Gamon and Sepp Schellhorn:

 


...

Those are the main parties and lists running.

There might be a few more, but I'll post their candidates later if they qualify for the ballot.

[Middle-aged Europe]

[Tender Branson]

Why in the world would anyone with the name Franziska re-name herself "Ska" instead of "Franzi", or re-name her at all ?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Why in the world would anyone with the name Franziska re-name herself "Ska" instead of "Franzi", or re-name her at all ?

"Franzi" would probably sound too cute. "Ska" is much cooler.

http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/RuleOfCool

[Tender Branson]

New ÖGfE (Austrian Society for European Politics) poll on likely turnout in the EP elections and the importance of the EP elections:



http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20131122_OTS0191/oegfe-schmidt-sechs-monate-vor-europawahl-europaeisches-parlament-staerkt-praesenz-aber-informationsdefizit-weiter-hoch

"Are you going to vote in the EP elections next year ?"

49% definitely
29% likely, yeah
11% unlikely, no
  8% definitely not

It should be noted that the turnout in the 2009 elections was 46%.

History has shown that only those who say "I will definitely vote" will actually go vote (with maybe a small number of the "likely" voters doing so as well).

"Do you think the EP elections are ... than the Austrian Parliamentary elections ?"

11% more important
53% equally important
27% not as important
  6% not at all as important

[FredLindq]

Sverigedemokraterna (SD) is geting nervous when their cooperation with Front National is discussed. They are givning som lame answers that they are still exemoning different parties to cooperate with and that Marine and here father are beloing to different groups in the EP. Altough both are non inscrits.

[Leftbehind]

"Are you going to vote in the EP elections next year ?"

49% definitely
29% likely, yeah
11% unlikely, no
  8% definitely not

It should be noted that the turnout in the 2009 elections was 46%.

History has shown that only those who say "I will definitely vote" will actually go vote (with maybe a small number of the "likely" voters doing so as well).

Most UK polls at the last election had people saying they were 10/10 in certainty to vote at 40% or above, and the actual turnout was 34%.

[Zanas]

Yeah, but it's the UK, and Austria...

[Leftbehind]

Well, yeah - just making the point it's not universal.

[Tender Branson]

Angelika Mlinar (right), will likely become the NEOS-frontrunner in the EU elections (if she gets the most votes in the online primary, but that should not be too hard):



She's currently the LIF-leader, but the LIF is now part of the NEOS platform. LIF and NEOS will merge into one party some time next year.

[Diouf]

ALDE have now opened for nominations at their congress in London. "Candidates shall be formally nominated by at least two member parties from more than one member state or by 20% of ALDE Party Congress voting delegates by 20 December 2013".

Olli Rehn, the Finnish Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs and the Euro, has already announced his candidacy and says that he has support from Germany, Great Britain and the Nordic countries. He didn't mention if it was all the parties from the Nordic countries, but I guess we could safely count in his own party Suomen Keskusta, for whom he is gonna run in the EP 2014 election, and Venstre in Denmark. I think it would be quite logical if VVD also supported Rehn's candidacy, especially if he is running against Verhofstadt which looks very likely. Such an duel will probably illustrate the dividing line in ALDE quite nicely.

[FredLindq]

I do not understand why this would illustrare the dividing line in the ALDE? Support from German FDP, Danish Venstre and Dutch VVD would indicate a more classical liberalism i.e. more rightwing. Britains Libdems are clearly more social liberal. Rehns Keskusta is and old agrarian party. Other Nordic parties are social liberal like Danish RV and Swedish FP.

What parties migh support Verhofstadt? And what about the EDP part off the ALDE, who might they support?

[Diouf]

I do not understand why this would illustrare the dividing line in the ALDE? Support from German FDP, Danish Venstre and Dutch VVD would indicate a more classical liberalism i.e. more rightwing. Britains Libdems are clearly more social liberal. Rehns Keskusta is and old agrarian party. Other Nordic parties are social liberal like Danish RV and Swedish FP.

I think the dividing line is now another. Graham Watson, MEP for the Lib Dems puts it like this:

http://www.euractiv.com/eu-elections-2014/watson-liberals-dividing-line-st-news-532034

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I think Guy Verhofstadt is definitely the proponent of the rapid federalist approach, while Olli Rehn represents the more gradual, slower approach. Rehn seems to focus more on carrying on with the stringent budgetary demands by using the economic instruments that are currently available instead of talking about new treaties and stronger instruments.

What parties migh support Verhofstadt? And what about the EDP part off the ALDE, who might they support?

I think the UDI/Modem Alliance in France would support Verhofstadt; the former are not currently members of ALDE yet but they seem to be joining them in the EP after the 2014 elections. I'm not sure whether the parties will merge? I think the Radicali Italiani, which are members of ALDE, will support him, and they might run together in 2014 with the Liberals from Monti's (now collapsed?) project. I think D66 and perhaps Demokratesch Partei from Luxembourg could support him as well.

Generally, the EDP parties, with Modem as the most prominent one, will probably be inclined to support Verhofstadt, but there are not that many strong votes in the EDP, I reckon.

[Diouf]

Venstre (Liberals) has just announced that they are indeed supporting Olli Rehn's candidature. Radikale Venstre (Social Liberals) has said that they haven't made up their mind yet. However, Nr 2 on Radikale Venstre's list has earlier stated a preference for Verhofstadt. Their dream candidate might be Cecilia Malmström, but I'm not sure she's gonna run. We might know that for sure once it's announced which of the Swedish parties that are supporting Rehn; I guess it's actually slightly more likely that it's gonna be Malmström's party Folkpartiet Liberalerna than Centerpartiet.

[FredLindq]

Centerpartiet will support Olli. They have not Said so but I can not see any other option.

Intereating. The federealist vs non federealist views is what forced ED out off it cooperation with EPP and the formation off ECR.

Might this question split the EUL and PES?! Swedish S  (PES) and V (EUL-NGL) are non federalists but I knep many off their sister parties in Europe are.

[Diouf]

Centerpartiet will support Olli. They have not Said so but I can not see any other option.

You're probably right. It would also be easier for Centerpartiet to support Rehn than to support Malmström. Maybe both of the Swedish ALDE parties will end up supporting him. I guess the Svenska Folkpartiet (Swedish People's Party) in Finland will support Rehn as well.

[FredLindq]

I thinkt so too. They are more inclined to support a fellow wiking that someone that is more ideological.

[Tender Branson]

As expected, the Greens elected MEP Ulrike Lunacek as their frontrunner for the EU elections at the Green convention today.

On the 2nd place of the list: Michel Reimon (Green member of the Burgenland state parliament)

On the 3rd place of the list: Monika Vana (Green member of the Vienna state parliament)

Current polling suggests that the Greens will either get 2 or 3 seats in the next EP.

[Tender Branson]

The EU-wide ALDE campaign kick-off for 2014 will be in Vienna btw:

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20131129_OTS0180/neos-und-die-alliance-of-liberals-and-democrats-for-europe-alde-nominieren-wien-fuer-den-eu-weiten-wahlauftakt-im-fruehjahr-2014

[Tender Branson]

More leadership news here:

Othmar Karas will be the frontrunner for the ÖVP next year.

This is what the "Kurier" and the "KZ" are reporting today.

Also, SPÖVP have agreed in the coalition talks that Johannes Hahn (ÖVP) will remain in Brüssel for the next legislative period as Austrian EU Commissioner for Regional Matters.

http://kurier.at/politik/eu/oevp-tritt-mit-karas-an-hahn-bleibt-in-bruessel/38.771.519

http://www.kleinezeitung.at/nachrichten/politik/eu/3483758/oevp-geht-nun-doch-karas-eu-wahl.story

This means only SPÖ and FPÖ are still without a frontrunner for the EP elections next year.

Both parties will decide their leading candidate in Jan./Feb.

[Diouf]

Guy Verhofstadt now officially also running to become ALDE's front runner. According to Andrew Duff, he is supported by all Benelux parties, including VVD!. Quite a surprise, prominent members of the party recently regarded him more dangerous for Europe than Le Pen.

[Velasco]

The last poll in Spain (Metroscopia/ El País 11/18) gives the following results:

PP 29% (18 seats); PSOE 27.9% (17); IU-ICV 14.3% (9); UPyD 8.2% (5); EdP-V* 5.5% (3); CEU** 4.3% (2).

* "Europe of the Peoples-Greens" (EdP-V) was a coalition of ERC (Catalonia), Aralar and EA (both from the Basque Country), BNG (Galicia), CHA (Aragon), other left-leaning regionalists/nationalists and the former Confederation of the Greens (nowadays Equo).

** Coalition for Europe (CEU) was comprised by CiU (Cat), PNV (BC), CC (Canaries), BNV (Valencia) and other regionalists. With the exceptions of BNV and PA (Andalusia), right-of-the-centre parties.

Neither of those coalitions is going to run again, but EdPV surpassing CEU likely reflects the strength of Amaiur in the Basque Country and the surge of ERC in Catalonia in parallel with the CiU decline.

I think El Periódico de Catalunya has a new poll for EP Elections, including new features such as the "Citizen Movement" (Movimiento Ciudadano, MC), that is to say, the national project Albert Rivera, leader of the Catalan anti-nationalist party known as Ciutadans (Citizens or C's). As soon as I get the results, I'll post.