EP elections 2014

[Tender Branson]

Eleonore Habsburg (19) now looks like this (on the left):



I guess she would be next in line for the Crown after her father Karl.

[Tender Branson]

Ferdinand, the 2nd oldest of the kids, now looks like this (on the picture with his mom):



Gloria, the youngest & her older sister Eleonore in a Luis Vuitton shop:

[Tender Branson]

Wikipedia actually says that Ferdinand would be next in line after his father - not his older sister.

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I'm not exactly sure why it is that way, because we once had a Queen already with Maria Theresia.

Maybe it was later changed to male-only ?

I don't know enough about this monarchist stuff ...

[Antonio the Sixth]

inb4 hot/not thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wee bit inbred for any risk of that, methinks.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wee bit inbred for any risk of that, methinks.

Have these sorts of details ever stopped Atlas posters?

[RodPresident]

Good that they don't have that damned Habsburg jaw. Remember Emperors Maximilian and Charles V and Charles II (best show of inbreeding).

[ERvND]

Wikipedia actually says that Ferdinand would be next in line after his father - not his older sister.

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I'm not exactly sure why it is that way, because we once had a Queen already with Maria Theresia.

The Pragmatic Sanction of 1713 states that male descendants take priority; daughters can only succeed to the throne if there are no sons or grandsons.

It's a highly theoretical discussion, though. If Austria was to revert to a monarchy, a national assembly would possibly define new rules of succession.

[MaxQue]

Wikipedia actually says that Ferdinand would be next in line after his father - not his older sister.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I'm not exactly sure why it is that way, because we once had a Queen already with Maria Theresia.

The Pragmatic Sanction of 1713 states that male descendants take priority; daughters can only succeed to the throne if there are no sons or grandsons.

It's a highly theoretical discussion, though. If Austria was to revert to a monarchy, a national assembly would possibly define new rules of succession.

I doubt than a male priority would be very popular these days (see the Commonwealth which was ready in case George was a girl).

[Hash]

Take the Hapsburg wankery to some other thread (preferably on another board), or El Caudillo will intervene.

[EPG]

The Galway Advertiser thinks the European Parliament means retirement from Irish frontline politics (tell that to Simon Coveney of Fine Gael (EPP), favourite to succeed Enda Kenny). The article is a good primer as to why the EP is viewed more cynically in Ireland these days: the declining relevance of CAP and structural funds vis-a-vis economic bodies controlled by the Council and Commission, the marginal status of many candidates, and frequent use of the substitute list.

Some lessons in PR-STV: Don't talk up your chances; if people think you're safe, they'll try to elect another candidate they like. Don't attack other candidates if you are doing OK on first preferences and need their transfers. Do attack them if you need first preferences to stay in the game long enough to get transfers.

Fianna Fáil (ALDE-somehow): the main leadership rival is making the Dublin election a leadership test.

[doktorb]

Welcome JB!

[Diouf]

Has the N/VA said anything about whether they will sit in the Green/EFA group again? There seem to have been quite a lot of criticism towards them because they don't vote with the group that often, especially from some of the other Belgian members of the group. According to VoteWatch Europe, N/VA votes with the group in 70 % of the cases which is far below the average of 95 %; even the Scottish National Party, which is the second-most likely rebels, votes with the group 85 % of the times. I'm not sure how softly Eurosceptic they are? perhaps somewhere in between EPP and ECR which I guess are the most viable alternatives.

[EPG]

Are there likely to be any seat changes in Belgium, as opposed to vote changes? Who would lose out if the various Greens advance?

[Zinneke]

Has the N/VA said anything about whether they will sit in the Green/EFA group again? There seem to have been quite a lot of criticism towards them because they don't vote with the group that often, especially from some of the other Belgian members of the group. According to VoteWatch Europe, N/VA votes with the group in 70 % of the cases which is far below the average of 95 %; even the Scottish National Party, which is the second-most likely rebels, votes with the group 85 % of the times. I'm not sure how softly Eurosceptic they are? perhaps somewhere in between EPP and ECR which I guess are the most viable alternatives.

The N-VA want to sit with ECR but Cameron can't let them in because of Scotland (it would look like his group is endorsing Flemish independence). De Wever actually met Cameron not long ago to discuss the issue. They will probably join after the referendum in UK though. Remember though that the only reason N-VA are not still in the EPP is because of the messy divorce with CD&V (Flemish Christian Democrats, who they had a cartel with until the financial crisis) who demanded with Spanish backing that N-VA be kicked out. The Green-Freedom Alliance took them in because at the time they had one MEP and she was in line with most of their policies.

My understanding is that the N-VA's prominent members including De Wever are really Eurosceptic to an almost EFD-level but recognise the EU institutions as important to securing potential independence with Brussels included. I wouldn't be fooled by his party's official European stance though, they do not like the EU institutions in Brussels and would probably rather it went back to being a provincial capital. He is just an excellent opportunist and knows it helps the Flemish economy.

Are there likely to be any seat changes in Belgium, as opposed to vote changes? Who would lose out if the various Greens advance?

CD&V and Open Vld will probably lose a seat each to N-VA and/or Groen. Vlaams Belang will lose a seat in Antwerp to N-VA. Because ecolo did so well last European elections they will do well to hang on to what they already have. Still, because the two green parties have been in opposition on a federal level and do traditionally well in Europe, I'm going to make a bold prediction and say they combined will have the most seats from Belgium. Other than that seat changes in Belgium are very unlikely.

[Tender Branson]

Austria EP poll average for March (5 polls from 5 different pollsters):

24.0 ÖVP
23.0 SPÖ
21.2 FPÖ
12.4 NEOS
12.4 Greens
  1.2 BZÖ
  1.2 Team Stronach (* unclear if they'll run)
  1.2 HP Martin (* has already announced he's not running again)
  0.8 Europa Anders
  0.4 REKOS
  2.2 Others (EU-STOP, Monarchists *pending signatures)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Bulgaria; and the governing BSP are apparently being punished by their pro-Russian base for their handling of Crimea. Centre-right opposition, GERB has taken the lead (but still less than their 25% last election). Happily, far-right Attack! have largely vanished in the polls - that'll teach them to put an imperative verb as the party name.

GERB 17.5
Socialist party (BSP) 15.2
Movement for Rights Freedom (MRF) 5.2
Bulgaria without Censorship/VMRO Reformist Bloc 5.1
Alternative for Bulgarian Revival 4.0

MRF is a Turkish ethnic party and part of ALDE; Bulgaria without Censorship/VMRO is a new (and mysterious) left-leaning anti-corruption party headed by a journalist - I presume they'll ally with ALDE or the Greens; and Alternative is yet another left-leaning party headed by the former Socialist foreign minister.

This poll (obviously) is pretty crappy - barely anyone seems to have actually made up their minds! I just wanted to find an Eastern European poll, to see if any surprises pop up.

[Diouf]

The Movimento 5 Stelle will try to create a new group in the European Parliament according to Luigi Di Maio, who is one of the highest ranked members of the party and Deputy President of the Chamber of Deputies. He says that it will be crucial to create this new group within the first two weeks of the new EP, because otherwise the other parties will just try to be admitted into one of the current groups. The task does look difficult for the Movement, especially to reach members from six other countries.

http://www.ansa.it/europa/notizie/rubriche/speciali_elezioni2014/2014/03/30/a-bruxelles-m5s-cerchera-di-costituire-nuovo-gruppo_ce72a340-f5ab-4902-931c-6cdf8c404cad.html

Their program for the European Elections:


Referendum on the euro
Abolish the fiscal compact
Create Eurobonds
Make a Mediterranean alliance which will fight for a common policy
Investments in innovation and new productive activies should be exempted when calculating whether a country is within the 3% budget deficit rule.
Not completely sure, but as far as I understand they want a restructuring and renationalisation of the agricultural support.
The last point says something like the abolition of the balanced budget, which I guess means the general ideas of a deficit limits, the European Semester etc.

[Zanas]

I'd say number 6 is rather on the lines of "financing agricultural and breeding activities that are destined to be consumed by internal consumers".

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Dear communtiy members , I enjoy your informative posts for a very long time as a reader and thank you very much for the instructive posts over the years . My first posting is nothing special, just an information about the last German survey.

Probably the most interesting is the tendency that the FDP (Liberals) continues to lose ground, while the AfD (conservative and Euro-skeptical ) - despite internal disputes - strengthens .While the FDP hardly takes place in the media and has difficulties to develop unique selling points , the AfD discussed their course in the European Parliament. It is not that of their unanimously decided program the problem, but with whom she wants to be in a group . The Young Alternative (Afd - youth) had Nigel Farage (UKIP ) invited to discuss with him his theses . A discussant was the assessor in the Federal Executive of the AfD and # 7 on the list Marcus Pretzell . This took part against the directives of the AfD chairman Professor Lucke in this event and was admonished by the Board for his interview with Farage. Lucke attempts to delineate the party by all right-wing populist formations and would prefer to make a pact with the Tories and the ECR. It seems, therefore, that the AfD may belong to any faction, as the ECR MEPs the AfD would have loved to record, but Cameron has promised Merkel not to do so .

Germany

28.03.2014
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF    
        
CDU/CSU 39 %    
SPD 26 %    
Greens 12 %       
Left 8 %    
AfD 6 %
FDP 3 %
Others 6 %

[Enno von Loewenstern]

If it's allowed for me as a new member, I would have some questions to the members of the forum on specific national issues :

1. Denmark

What tendency has the Liberal Alliance regarding their ballot status? Will it compete alone, or in partnerchip with the national-conservative Danish People's Party or the Conservatives?

2. Finland

What trend do have the Christiandemocrats with regard to their choice of participation? Will they compete alone, or with the "True Finns" as the last time?

3. Netherlands

Is there a pact between SGP and CU again? Is the debate about "less Moroccan" weaken or strengthen the PVV? The same question for the debate aboute the Rap calling for murder Geert Wilders.

4. Belgium

Is the right-wing libertarian LDD dead, or at least virtually?

5. Luxembourg

Is there an opportunity for the Left and the ADR to enter the EP?

6 France

Are there appointments between the UMP and the UDI on the right and between PS, PCF, FG and EELV on the left ? Is Phillippe de Villiers and the MPF competing again? If not, is he recommending a party (UMP, DLR, FN)?

7 Spain

What chance does the new Conservative Party Vox have?

8 Italy

In which formations the center , center-right and right-wing parties compete ? Will for eample FI, NDC and FDI unite?

9 Austria

Will the Team Strochnach compete ? What are the chances of the BZÖ and Stadlers new Reformconservatives? Is there a chance of Reunfication with the FPÖ after the elections?

10 Czech Republic

To which fraction ANO and Usvit will belong?



Thanks in advance for your advice. The other countries next time.

[Diouf]

I'd say number 6 is rather on the lines of "financing agricultural and breeding activities that are destined to be consumed by internal consumers".

I feel like that needs some translating still. What does that mean policy-wise?

[Tender Branson]

If it's allowed for me as a new member, I would have some questions to the members of the forum on specific national issues :

Austria

Will the Team Strochnach compete ? What are the chances of the BZÖ and Stadlers new Reformconservatives? Is there a chance of Reunfication with the FPÖ after the elections?

Thanks in advance for your advice. The other countries next time.

Team Stronach:

We'll know that in the next 2 weeks: On April 11, at 5pm at the latest, the party lists need to be handed in at the Interior Ministry.

BZÖ/Stadler:

According to the polls 1-3%, well below what is required for a seat. And I don't think they will gain much traction, because neither the BZÖ nor Stadler has the money to compete. Unless they find a future topic where they can gain some points ...

Reunfication with the FPÖ:

Hell no ! The FPÖ doesn't want anything to do anymore with Stadler and the Haider-people. Not when the Hypo scandal (that was basically started by Haider and a few others) is the dominating domestic topic right now.

...

Welcome to the Forum by the way

[Enno von Loewenstern]

If it's allowed for me as a new member, I would have some questions to the members of the forum on specific national issues :

Austria

Will the Team Strochnach compete ? What are the chances of the BZÖ and Stadlers new Reformconservatives? Is there a chance of Reunfication with the FPÖ after the elections?

Thanks in advance for your advice. The other countries next time.

Team Stronach:

We'll know that in the next 2 weeks: On April 11, at 5pm at the latest, the party lists need to be handed in at the Interior Ministry.

BZÖ/Stadler:

According to the polls 1-3%, well below what is required for a seat. And I don't think they will gain much traction, because neither the BZÖ nor Stadler has the money to compete. Unless they find a future topic where they can gain some points ...

Reunfication with the FPÖ:

Hell no ! The FPÖ doesn't want anything to do anymore with Stadler and the Haider-people. Not when the Hypo scandal (that was basically started by Haider and a few others) is the dominating domestic topic right now.

...

Welcome to the Forum by the way

I appreciate your rapid and profound response. And thanks for the welcome. Greetings to Austria!

[Diouf]

If it's allowed for me as a new member, I would have some questions to the members of the forum on specific national issues :

1. Denmark

What tendency has the Liberal Alliance regarding their ballot status? Will it compete alone, or in partnerchip with the national-conservative Danish People's Party or the Conservatives?

This has not been decided yet, but I still believe that alone is the most likely answer. The DF front runner swells in his me vs every one else role, and just recently argued how un-democratic electoral alliances were and that they should be forbidden, so that rules them out. I don't think they are likely to join the Liberal-Conservative electoral alliance again, as they have become markedly more Eurosceptic. The Liberals and the Conservatives also sound more Eurosceptic, especially due to the current debate in Denmark, but not at all to the same degree. If the Liberal Alliance did join, the electoral alliance might reach five seats instead of the four, that they have been predicted to get in almost every poll, but the Conservatives are probably be afraid that the Liberal Alliance ends up bigger than them. That would make it almost impossible for the Conservatives to get a seat out of the alliance, I reckon.  

2. Finland

What trend do have the Christiandemocrats with regard to their choice of participation? Will they compete alone, or with the "True Finns" as the last time?

From what I've read there will be no alliance this time. Either way, it will be extremely difficult for the Christian Democrats to get elected, so an electoral alliance will in all likelyhood just give the Finns Party three seats instead of two.