EP elections 2014

[YL]

YouGov now seem to be asking Euro election questions in most of their UK polls.  The 26/27 March figures were Lab 28, UKIP 26, Con 24, LD 11, Green 7, SNP/Plaid 3.  The 27/28 March figures were Lab 32, Con 24, UKIP 23, LD 11, Green 5, SNP/Plaid 3.

The latter poll also had a UK EU membership question, and got in 42, out 36.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

France:

Ipsos

UMP 24%
FN 22%
PS 19%
EELV 10%
MoDem-UDI 8%
FDG 8%
DLR 3,5%
LO 2%
Europe citoyenne 2%
NPA 1%

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Possible parties to ally with 5 Star Movement might be slightly tricky (they're certainly one of a kind), but I'm thinking they could make a "broad tent" anti-politics populist grouping with parties like Greece's To Potami (assuming they don't ally with the Greens) and Alliance for Deutschland (who have no party to call their own) That is really the only choice for them.


@Enno - welcome to the forum! I know it won't happen, but I would laugh my bum off if the FDP don't manage to get an MEP even without the threshold.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Possible parties to ally with 5 Star Movement might be slightly tricky (they're certainly one of a kind), but I'm thinking they could make a "broad tent" anti-politics populist grouping with parties like Greece's To Potami (assuming they don't ally with the Greens) and Alliance for Deutschland (who have no party to call their own) That is really the only choice for them.


@Enno - welcome to the forum! I know it won't happen, but I would laugh my bum off if the FDP don't manage to get an MEP even without the threshold.

It is possible that the AfD will join such a group, as their Leader Lucke could thus distinguished from right-wing parties. However, I see no other partners for such a group.

[EPG]

If the FDP wins no MEP, it's game over and time to infiltrate liberalism into the C_U.

As for M5S: A political group in the European Parliament needs 25 MEPs in 1/4 of the member states (i.e. 7 member states). Finding 7 countries with non-right-wing Eurosceptic movements in the EP could be a challenge. It would be a lot easier to join one of the existing groups, probably either the Greens-EFA or UKIP's Europe of Freedom and Democracy group.

Wikipedia lists EFD's members as:

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The problem is not so much that Wilders/Le Pen will win these parties over, and more that polls suggest they could lose their MEPs in Belgium, Bulgaria, France, Greece, the Netherlands, Poland and Slovakia. In that case, they would need to find MEPs from two more countries. Ironically, M5S wouldn't help, because the Italian part of the EFD is already one of the most likely to survive!

[Diouf]

Northern League might stick with Farage since they're not excessively right-wing.

Salvini has announced that they will join the Le Pen-Wilders Alliance.

http://www.repubblica.it/politica/2014/03/29/news/salvini_alle_europee_alleanza_con_le_pen_e_partiti_no-euro-82228442/?ref=HREC1-33

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Lucke (AfD) has ruled out, that he will sit together in one groupe with Farage (UKIP). But there is an infight within the AfD about this subject. At this moment i would prdeict, that the AfD will stand alone. The only possibility is that the ECR MEPs prevail against Cameron and recording them.

The FDP will win seats (3-4), because there is no "5%-Hürde" in Germany anymore.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Trouble is their really is no place for UKIP at present. Its EFD friends have abandoned it for NF - and Farage does not want the PR of being allied to La Pen; and it can't join ECR for extremely obvious reasons. Meanwhile AfD's leadership are only anti-Euro not anti-EU, so they have some fundamental divides.

I guess 5SM/UKIP/AfD have to hope some snivelling tiny new parties from Eastern Europe are elected to bully into a new alliance.

[Diouf]

True Finns will not join  FN or PVV. There has been speculation about ECR.

It's the same with DF. They also wanted to join ECR in 2009, but were rejected. They are used to being somewhat pragmatic in Denmark, and taking part in quite a lot of negotiations. So I guess their MEPs would like to be in a group with some possibility for influence as well.

[MaxQue]

6 France

Are there appointments between the UMP and the UDI on the right and between PS, PCF, FG and EELV on the left ? Is Phillippe de Villiers and the MPF competing again? If not, is he recommending a party (UMP, DLR, FN)?

The only alliance will be MoDem and UDI, under the name "Alternative".

[Zanas]

Because of the electoral system the gloves are off and alliances are not as necessary. They only do that in parliamentary or municipals because they have more to lease by facing each other.
PCF and PG (who form the bulk of FG) will unite though and won't run cnadidates against each other.

I wish I could be so affirmative now... What happened in the municipales will leave traces, and PCF and PG are pretty pissed at each other. The other FG members are trying to save what can be saved. But the PG is really getting to get its hopes up on a "renewed FG" centered only around him, like it was in Paris. They don't even care if they only get 1 MEP, because it will be their own.

As for MPF, De Villiers is politically dead, and I think also physically dying, at least quite ill. MPF will most certainly participate in UMP's West list, but maybe not very high.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Because of the electoral system the gloves are off and alliances are not as necessary. They only do that in parliamentary or municipals because they have more to lease by facing each other.
PCF and PG (who form the bulk of FG) will unite though and won't run cnadidates against each other.

I wish I could be so affirmative now... What happened in the municipales will leave traces, and PCF and PG are pretty pissed at each other. The other FG members are trying to save what can be saved. But the PG is really getting to get its hopes up on a "renewed FG" centered only around him, like it was in Paris. They don't even care if they only get 1 MEP, because it will be their own.


As for MPF, De Villiers is politically dead, and I think also physically dying, at least quite ill. MPF will most certainly participate in UMP's West list, but maybe not very high.

Could you explain the main differences between the PCF, PG and FG?

[Zanas]

Wow. I will be needing some time for that. But in a nutshell :
- PCF is the ongoing Communist Party from 1923, it is europeist though, and holds a number of strongholds that slowly erode. It's the biggest member of FG, with ca. 40,000 members.
- PG is a splinter from PS in 2008, rejoined by various left-wing types of all sorts. They have a personality cult for Mélenchon, and are largely deluded about the reality of the situation. They are the second member of the FG, with ca. 10,000 members.
- The FG is an electoral alliance of the PCF and the PG, rejoined by numerous groupuscules. Several of these groupuscules joined forces in late 2013 to give birth to Ensemble, the third largest FG member with ca. 2,000 members (including me )

[Zanas]

France:

Ipsos

UMP 24%
FN 22%
PS 19%
EELV 10%
MoDem-UDI 8%
FDG 8%
DLR 3,5%
LO 2%
Europe citoyenne 2%
NPA 1%

Which would give this in seats :
UMP   24   22
PS   19   15
EELV   10   6
Modem-UDI   8   6
FG   8   4
FN   22   18
NPA   1   0
DLR   3,5   0

[Diouf]

Today, the Liberal Alliance, as expected, announced that they will not take part in an electoral alliance. That means that they need 7-8 % of the votes to get at seat which looks very difficult. Party leader Anders Samuelsen gives this explanation for the choice: "We don't like the banking union like the Liberals and the Conservatives and we don't like protectionism and closed borders like DF. We have our own position".

If they do get seat, Samuelsen says that they will not be a part of the ALDE group where Samuelsen himself sat as a Social Liberal MEP from 2004 to 2007. He believes that the group is for supereuropeans. He hopes for a new liberal, but more eurosceptic group to emerge after the election. I can't really see that happening, so ECR still looks the most likely group if they get a seat

[Zanas]

How come the NPA still exist?

Every now and then I'm asking myself the same question...

But it's France. You'll always have a number of useless groupuscules shouting things in demonstrations and running in a few elections to have a tribune.

[palandio]

Talking about the People's Front of Judea, the Judean People's Front and the Popular Front?
It's similar in Italy, Ireland etc.

[Bacon King]

Here's how the University of Macedonia poll translates among decided voters :
Syriza 23.4
ND 17.1
To Potami 16.5
XA 11.4
KKE 10.1
Pasok 5.7
Dimar 2.5
Anel 1.9

I'm having a hard time believing ND, Potami and KKe's scores honestly. Let's wait for a few more polls to see

I know it's a week old now but Potami being so high makes sense; typical aurge for a big new "fad" party. KKE is so high because this is just decided voters and the people who vote KKE never vote for anyone else and people who vote for anyone else never vote KKE; their proportional support among people who have already decided this early is naturally higher.

ND being so low probably indicates there are a lot of right-leaning undecideds

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

ND's level of support isn't surprisingly: Te Potami is mostly poaching voters from the right and there's a lot of disillusionment with New Democracy. What I find hard to believe is SYRIZA's similar erosion and the KKE's resilience.

[Keystone Phil]

Picking up on a question asked earlier here (by someone other than myself): is there any news of FI-FDI-NCD teaming up to unite the center-right despite their differences in Italy? If no real news, does anyone here know if it is likely?

[Enno von Loewenstern]

If it's allowed for me as a new member, I would have some questions to the members of the forum on specific national issues :



5. Luxembourg

Is there an opportunity for the Left and the ADR to enter the EP?

7 Spain

What chance does the new Conservative Party Vox have?

8 Italy

In which formations the center , center-right and right-wing parties compete ? Will for eample FI, NDC and FDI unite?

10 Czech Republic

To which fraction ANO and Usvit will belong?



Thanks in advance for your advice. The other countries next time.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

France:

Ipsos

UMP 24%
FN 22%
PS 19%
EELV 10%
MoDem-UDI 8%
FDG 8%
DLR 3,5%
LO 2%
Europe citoyenne 2%
NPA 1%

Which would give this in seats :
UMP   24   22
PS   19   15
EELV   10   6
Modem-UDI   8   6
FG   8   4
FN   22   18
NPA   1   0
DLR   3,5   0

The Euro skepticism is gaining ground, according to the survey

One of three French today feel that France "has more to lose as profit from the EU," compared with 30%, it has more to gain than to lose, 37% think "as much as the other." Euro-skepticism is especially of a very large majority (70%) supported in the vicinity of the FN.

Source: sondageselections over-blog com

[Zanas]

5. Luxembourg

Is there an opportunity for the Left and the ADR to enter the EP?

Not likely. Either would have to overtake the Greens at around 11% to take the last seat, whereas they got 5% and 6.5% respectively in the last general election.

There are only 6 seats at stake, so they are difficult to reach.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Could someone from Italy tell me why UDC sit in EPP and not with ALDE like pretty much every other centrist in Europe?

Also, no threshold in Italy EU elections - so alliances are less essential to get in.

@TheDeadFlagRag - I suppose To Potami are picking up on Syriza's voters who dislike the government, but are still wary of Syriza's radical origins.

[FredLindq]

I am sure there is a 4%-threshold in Italy this timme. Som NCD, FDI and UCD need som kind of cooperation. Lega Nord polls just over 4%. All in all almost 10% ponts of the italian centre right votes might be lost ie one third off it.