EP elections 2014
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Author Topic: EP elections 2014  (Read 203374 times)
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #650 on: April 05, 2014, 01:56:49 PM »

My Forecast

Probability to overcome the threshold of 4%

Democratic Party - 100,00%
5 Stars Movement - 100,00%
Forza Italia - 100,00%
New Centre Right - Udc - Populars - 98,44%
Lega Nord - 75,15%
Other Europe with Tsipras - 61,07%
Brothers of Italy - AN - 13,50%
European Choice (Civic Choice - Democratic Centre - Fare) - 0,93%
Greens - Green Italia - 0,00%
Italy of Values - 0,00%
Svp - 0,00%

Two decimals?
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Senator Cris
Cris
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« Reply #651 on: April 05, 2014, 02:04:23 PM »

My Forecast

Probability to overcome the threshold of 4%

Democratic Party - 100,00%
5 Stars Movement - 100,00%
Forza Italia - 100,00%
New Centre Right - Udc - Populars - 98,44%
Lega Nord - 75,15%
Other Europe with Tsipras - 61,07%
Brothers of Italy - AN - 13,50%
European Choice (Civic Choice - Democratic Centre - Fare) - 0,93%
Greens - Green Italia - 0,00%
Italy of Values - 0,00%
Svp - 0,00%

Two decimals?

To be more precise Tongue

In Italy, the polls are reported with one decimal. In the United States, the majority of the polls are reported without decimals.
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Diouf
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« Reply #652 on: April 05, 2014, 02:06:16 PM »


So NCD, and UCD etc will be in an alliances, FI will go with La Destra. What are the chances off FDI and the liberal alliance getting 4% each?! FDI seems to be polling  almost 4% and the liberals better than in national polls.


Well, the question is whether they will be able to carve out their niche. The liberal alliance will try to be a quite distinctly pro-european centrist force which could make them relatively unique, I reckon. They will probably mainly fight with PD and NCD/UDC for votes. They can at least partly brand themselves as the new, fresh liberals, who will create real change as opposed to EPP and S&D.
FDI-AN will more or less have the role of Lega Nord outside of Northern Italy. Forza Italia will be more Eurosceptic than normally, so the FDI will probably be even more shrill to secure the hard-core Eurosceptic and anti-immigrant vote.

There are arguably more voters for FDI to hunt, but their competition is probably harder as well. A lot will depend on the candidates as well. If the liberal alliance manages to convince Emma Bonino or another reputable candidate, then that should boost their chances of crossing the threshold. The liberal alliance will present their candidates in Rome next saturday
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Diouf
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« Reply #653 on: April 05, 2014, 02:20:14 PM »

My Forecast

Probability to overcome the threshold of 4%

Svp - 0,00%

The threshold isn't important for them, however. Although, their support has faded somewhat, it seems like they will still be able to reach the neccessary 50.000 votes to retain their seat.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #654 on: April 05, 2014, 02:26:02 PM »

My Forecast

Probability to overcome the threshold of 4%

Democratic Party - 100,00%
5 Stars Movement - 100,00%
Forza Italia - 100,00%
New Centre Right - Udc - Populars - 98,44%
Lega Nord - 75,15%
Other Europe with Tsipras - 61,07%
Brothers of Italy - AN - 13,50%
European Choice (Civic Choice - Democratic Centre - Fare) - 0,93%
Greens - Green Italia - 0,00%
Italy of Values - 0,00%
Svp - 0,00%

Two decimals?

To be more precise Tongue

In Italy, the polls are reported with one decimal. In the United States, the majority of the polls are reported without decimals.

Yes, I now, but how do you get those numbers?
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #655 on: April 05, 2014, 02:31:06 PM »

My Forecast

Probability to overcome the threshold of 4%

Democratic Party - 100,00%
5 Stars Movement - 100,00%
Forza Italia - 100,00%
New Centre Right - Udc - Populars - 98,44%
Lega Nord - 75,15%
Other Europe with Tsipras - 61,07%
Brothers of Italy - AN - 13,50%
European Choice (Civic Choice - Democratic Centre - Fare) - 0,93%
Greens - Green Italia - 0,00%
Italy of Values - 0,00%
Svp - 0,00%

Two decimals?

To be more precise Tongue

In Italy, the polls are reported with one decimal. In the United States, the majority of the polls are reported without decimals.

Yes, I now, but how do you get those numbers?

Is a my calculation. I have considered all the polls and the percentage of all parties.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #656 on: April 05, 2014, 02:33:04 PM »

My Forecast

Probability to overcome the threshold of 4%

Democratic Party - 100,00%
5 Stars Movement - 100,00%
Forza Italia - 100,00%
New Centre Right - Udc - Populars - 98,44%
Lega Nord - 75,15%
Other Europe with Tsipras - 61,07%
Brothers of Italy - AN - 13,50%
European Choice (Civic Choice - Democratic Centre - Fare) - 0,93%
Greens - Green Italia - 0,00%
Italy of Values - 0,00%
Svp - 0,00%

Two decimals?

To be more precise Tongue

In Italy, the polls are reported with one decimal. In the United States, the majority of the polls are reported without decimals.

Yes, I now, but how do you get those numbers?

Is a my calculation.

Wow. The real Italians even type in their accent!
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YL
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« Reply #657 on: April 06, 2014, 04:14:26 AM »

Another UK poll dump:

ComedyResults: Lab 30, UKIP 30, Con 22, LD 8
Survation: Lab 34, UKIP 27, Con 21, LD 9
YouGov: Lab 30, UKIP 28, Con 23, LD 9
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Lasitten
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« Reply #658 on: April 06, 2014, 12:11:20 PM »


Why Tsipras list is doing that badly?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #659 on: April 06, 2014, 12:19:09 PM »


For some reason the Italian hard-left has been utterly inaudible since the last elections (maybe because it's been overshadowed by the "New left" wing of the PD, ie Civati&co). Vendola himself isn't talking much and apparently he is expected to leave the stage soon. The main figures in that list are old intellectuals with little charisma.
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Enno von Loewenstern
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« Reply #660 on: April 06, 2014, 12:34:59 PM »

Are the doors closed to a pact of FI/LD and FDI-AN? The same with reagards to SC and UDC/NCD or PD?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #661 on: April 06, 2014, 12:39:03 PM »

Wouldn't FI going with the Le Pen coalition be a pretty massive blow to EPP?
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FredLindq
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« Reply #662 on: April 06, 2014, 12:40:05 PM »

If Bonino joins the liberal list i think they will pass the threshold. What happened to radicals like Panella and Ciccolina?!

Might FDI get tactical votes from FI supporters? In Sweden KD and somewhat C can reley on tactical votes from M supporters.
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Enno von Loewenstern
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« Reply #663 on: April 06, 2014, 12:55:01 PM »

Wouldn't FI going with the Le Pen coalition be a pretty massive blow to EPP?

That will not happen. If the EPP wants them, than FI will take part. Their other option is the ECR but not Le Pen.

By the way: More than 50% of Italians vote for Euro-skeptic parties (M5S, FI, LD, FDI, Tsirpas, LN). Is there any other country in the EU with such a majority?
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #664 on: April 06, 2014, 02:29:21 PM »

http://www.corriere.it/foto-gallery/politica/14_aprile_06/elezioni-europee-2014-simboli-03cad928-bd56-11e3-b2d0-9e36fa632dc6.shtml

The symbols for the EP elections in Italy.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #665 on: April 06, 2014, 09:08:39 PM »

Wouldn't FI going with the Le Pen coalition be a pretty massive blow to EPP?

That will not happen. If the EPP wants them, than FI will take part. Their other option is the ECR but not Le Pen.

Well, FDI is with Le Pen, as far as I can tell so I guess that closes the door on FI-FDI.
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y
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« Reply #666 on: April 06, 2014, 10:10:09 PM »


Why Tsipras list is doing that badly?

don't know if that's the major point, but the PdCI seems to have been dismissed from the candidates list.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #667 on: April 07, 2014, 09:13:45 AM »

Pressure is piling up on FPÖ's frontrunner for the EP elections, Andreas Mölzer, to step down:

* Austrian President Fischer today called for Mölzer to step down and said his comments crossed a line.

* The FPÖ leaders of Tyrol and Burgenland distanced themselves from the comments (but did not call for his resignation).

* 20.000 Austrians have signed an online petition that supports Mölzer's indictment for incitement of hatred.

* Austrian FPÖ-leader Strache has called a personal 4-eye-meeting with Mölzer today and asked the FPÖ-board to deal with the issue on Wednesday (on Friday at 5pm the federal candidate lists for the EP elections need to be handed in at the Interior Ministry) ...

http://derstandard.at/1395364501926/Bundespraesident-Fischer-fordert-Rueckzug-Moelzers
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #668 on: April 07, 2014, 04:31:46 PM »

New IPR Italy poll shows FDI at 3.9% (threshold is 4%).
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #669 on: April 08, 2014, 02:59:10 AM »

You could just change to open list system where people can vote who thet will, like in ordinary countries.

I have 2 problems with your post:

* A) you are saying Austria is no "ordinary" country ... ? Wink

* B) Austria in fact uses an open list system, in which voters can cast a preference vote for any candidate on that party list. If a candidate receives more than 5% of its party's share in the election, the candidate will be moved up to 1st place on the list. If more candidates receive more than 5%, the one with the bigger amount of preference votes gets ranked 1st.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_list#List_of_countries_with_open_list_proportional_representation

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http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/europawahl/Ueberblick.aspx
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Diouf
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« Reply #670 on: April 08, 2014, 03:00:15 AM »

AB Analyse for Altinget.dk poll for Denmark

DF 26.7 % 4
Social Democrats 22.8 % 3
Liberals 21.2 % 3 seats
People's movement against the EU 9.1 % 1
Social Liberals 8.9 % 1
SF 6.2 % 1
Conservatives 4.1 % 0
Liberal Alliance 1.0 % 0

In this poll, DF pulls ahead of the Liberal-Conservative alliance and gains a fourth seat. It does look quite weird that the Liberal Alliance should only get 1 %, and most of their eurosceptic right-wing support is probably at DF in this poll.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #671 on: April 08, 2014, 03:13:18 AM »

Nice info chart:

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #672 on: April 08, 2014, 03:17:33 AM »

Alternative info graphic (right-click for huge resolution):

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #673 on: April 08, 2014, 03:28:55 AM »

Pressure is piling up on FPÖ's frontrunner for the EP elections, Andreas Mölzer, to step down:

* Austrian President Fischer today called for Mölzer to step down and said his comments crossed a line.

* The FPÖ leaders of Tyrol and Burgenland distanced themselves from the comments (but did not call for his resignation).

* 20.000 Austrians have signed an online petition that supports Mölzer's indictment for incitement of hatred.

* Austrian FPÖ-leader Strache has called a personal 4-eye-meeting with Mölzer today and asked the FPÖ-board to deal with the issue on Wednesday (on Friday at 5pm the federal candidate lists for the EP elections need to be handed in at the Interior Ministry) ...

http://derstandard.at/1395364501926/Bundespraesident-Fischer-fordert-Rueckzug-Moelzers

...

The best news of the day:



"Mölzer (FPÖ) steps down as EP-frontrunner."

http://derstandard.at/1395364560922/Moelzer-zieht-sich-als-FPOe-Spitzenkandidat-zurueck

YESSS !!!

Smiley
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Diouf
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« Reply #674 on: April 08, 2014, 04:45:16 AM »
« Edited: April 08, 2014, 04:57:33 AM by Diouf »

Poland TNS Polska EP poll



For the first time in a long time, Donald Tusk's Civic Platform is the biggest party in the polls.

Seat calculation:
Civic Platform (EPP) 18
Law and Justice (ECR) 18
Democratic Left Alliance (S&D) 6
Europa Plus Alliance - Your Movement (ALDE and S&D) 3
Polish People's Party (EPP) 3
Congress of the New Right (?)* 3
United Poland (EFD) 0
Poland Together (ECR) 0

*Described as ultra-liberalist on economy, conservative on values, and quite eurosceptic. So EFD most likely?

http://euobserver.com/eu-elections/123773
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