EP elections 2014
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 04:45:41 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  EP elections 2014
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 26 27 28 29 30 [31] 32 33 34 35 36 ... 51
Author Topic: EP elections 2014  (Read 203375 times)
ObserverIE
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,824
Ireland, Republic of


Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -1.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #750 on: April 15, 2014, 02:09:50 PM »

Do you think that DUP will ever join a EP group?

ECR: Already contains the UUP, their Unionist rivals, as well as the Tories. Nope.

EPP: Catholics!!!

EFD: Not sure that Farage would want an open association with them (although the local wing of UKIP seems to be full of ex-Drumcree protestors and loyalist ultras who would view the DUP as Catholic-loving sell-outs). Probably the closest match, but still no.
Logged
EPG
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 992
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #751 on: April 15, 2014, 02:19:11 PM »

UKIP and TUV have a connection, which would make a connection to the DUP very unlikely. (TUV split from the DUP as a more extreme Protestant party.)

Really, European party groups are perhaps the least important issue in the Northern Ireland elections. Judging by party groups, you would think Northern Ireland is a mix of extreme socialists and Eurosceptics. It's not really.
Logged
joevsimp
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 482


Political Matrix
E: -5.95, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #752 on: April 15, 2014, 03:18:57 PM »
« Edited: April 15, 2014, 03:23:10 PM by joevsimp »

electio gave me...

GUE/UEL  70%
G/EFA         60
S&D           50
EFD           42
ALDE        30
EPP           30
ECR          30


and just for UK

Green       60%
Sinn Féin 59%
Plaid        56%
BNP         41% not sure what happened there
Labour    40%
LibDem   35%
SNP         35%
An Independence Party 27% (ukip splitter)
UKIP        25%
Conservative 20%
DUP         18%
English Democrats 18%
UCU_NF  15% (I thought they were running as UUP this time
British Democratic Party 0% (Andrew Brons' Strasserite splinter from the BNP, good riddance)



who is Kartika Tamara Liotard? my highest europe-wide match apart from Swedish Vansterpartiet
Logged
MaxQue
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,600
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #753 on: April 15, 2014, 04:52:04 PM »

The Austrian test is unsurprising, except BZÖ.

EUAnders 86
Grüne 62
BZÖ 59
NEOS 56
SPÖ 51
EU-Stop 47
ÖVP 45
REKOS 37
FPÖ 35
Logged
MaxQue
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,600
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #754 on: April 15, 2014, 05:09:40 PM »

Electio:

GUE-NGL: 76
Greens-EFA: 74
S&D: 72
ALDE: 52
EFD: 47
EPP: 46
ECR: 24

Strangely, in France it's saying than PS is my best fit (UK, Plaid Cymru, SF, Greens; Italy, PD; Spain, ICV (Catalogna Greens), Pirates, PSOE; Germany, Linke; Austria, Green).

Worryingly, my best fit is Jiri Mastalka from the KSCM (the unreformed communists from Czech Republic), Christian Noiret (Wallonia Greens), Delfina Rossi (ICV), Edit Herczog (Hungary Socialists and Raul Romeva i Rueda (ICV)
The worst fits are all in UK Conservatives (worst being Timothy Kirkhope).
Logged
Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
htmldon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,983
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.03, S: -2.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #755 on: April 16, 2014, 12:53:51 AM »

UKIP and TUV have a connection, which would make a connection to the DUP very unlikely. (TUV split from the DUP as a more extreme Protestant party.)

Really, European party groups are perhaps the least important issue in the Northern Ireland elections. Judging by party groups, you would think Northern Ireland is a mix of extreme socialists and Eurosceptics. It's not really.

I wish NI21 (which I would consider voting for if I lived there) would join EPP just so there would be a party in the UK affiliated with Europe's largest party
Logged
sirius3100
Rookie
**
Posts: 37
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -4.71, S: -4.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #756 on: April 16, 2014, 03:00:04 AM »

Austrian test:

NEOS 84
Grüne 64
SPÖ 53
EUAnders 47
ÖVP 41
BZÖ 37
Rekos 21
FPÖ 19
EU-Stop 19

Electio (EU-wide):
EPP 81%
ALDE 76%
S&D 70%
Greens-EFA 65%
ECR 51%
GUE-NGL 49%
EFD 43%

Electio (Germany only):
Piraten 70%
SPD 70%
CSU 69%
Grüne 65%
FDP 65%
LINKE 49%


At least the last "test" is "right". I will either vote for the Piraten or for SPD. Depends on how close the pollsters see the race between EPP and S&D near election day. If I see a real chance that my vote may help to make Schulz the Commission President I will vote for the SPD. Not because I especially like Schulz -I think that Juncker is also alright- but I would just prefer to have a S&D guy as the head of the commission.
Logged
MaxQue
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,600
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #757 on: April 16, 2014, 03:02:25 AM »

UKIP and TUV have a connection, which would make a connection to the DUP very unlikely. (TUV split from the DUP as a more extreme Protestant party.)

Really, European party groups are perhaps the least important issue in the Northern Ireland elections. Judging by party groups, you would think Northern Ireland is a mix of extreme socialists and Eurosceptics. It's not really.

I wish NI21 (which I would consider voting for if I lived there) would join EPP just so there would be a party in the UK affiliated with Europe's largest party

There is non-negligible odds than S&D becomes the largest group instead of EPP.
Logged
Lasitten
Rookie
**
Posts: 112
Finland


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #758 on: April 16, 2014, 03:14:04 AM »

Electio gave me:

GUE/NGL 80 %
GREENS/EFA 74 %
S&D 70 %
ALDE 40 %
EPP 38 %
EFD 32 %
ECR 22 %

Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #759 on: April 16, 2014, 03:51:58 AM »

My Electio results:

EU-wide candidates (top matches)

Caroline Saal - 80% - Greens/EFA - Belgium
Jean-Paul Besset - 76% - Greens/EFA - France
Jason Kitcat - 76% - Greens/EFA - UK
Lorena Müller - 76% - Confederación Pirata - Spain
Ana Luisa Texeira - 76% - Greens/EFA - Luxembourg

EU-wide fractions (top matches)

64% Greens/EFA
64% GUE-NGL
62% S&D
38% ALDE/ADLE
36% EPP

Austrian candidates (top matches)

Gerhard Kilga - 74% - SPÖ
Lukas Daniel Klausner - 74% - Europa Anders
Ulrike Lunacek - 73% - Greens
Thomas Waitz - 72% - Greens
Martin Gössl - 70% - SPÖ

Austrian fractions (top matches)

74% Europa Anders
70% Liste Martin (why are they still included ?)
64% Greens
64% FPÖ (!!!, what the f**k ?)
50% SPÖ
Logged
Cranberry
TheCranberry
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,501
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #760 on: April 16, 2014, 05:17:47 AM »

Austrian Parties:

1. Greens - 83%
2. SPÖ - 80%
3. EUROPAnders - 78%
4. NEOS - 76%
5. ÖVP - 72%

Fractions:

1. S&D - 89%
2. Greens/EFA - 83%
3. ALDE - 72%
4. GUE-NGL - 67%
5. EPP - 61%

MEPS:

1. Lau Lykke Tambjerg (Denmark - Socialistisk Folkeparti)
2. Ben Allard (Luxemburg - Piratepartei)
3. Sven Clement (Luxemburg - Piratepartei)
4. Lauranne Devillé (Belgium - Stand Up for the United States of Europe)
5. Martin Gössl (Austria - SPÖ)
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #761 on: April 16, 2014, 09:33:31 AM »

My top candidates:

Derek Roland CLARK
United Kingdom Independence Party
EFD 92%

Roger HELMER
United Kingdom Independence Party
EFD 92%

Top European Alliance:

EFD 63%
ECR 52%

Top Swedish MEP:
Corazza Bildt 61%

Top Swedish Party:
Sweden Democrats 85% (well that's depressing)
Moderate Party 60%
Logged
joevsimp
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 482


Political Matrix
E: -5.95, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #762 on: April 16, 2014, 03:13:10 PM »

UKIP and TUV have a connection, which would make a connection to the DUP very unlikely. (TUV split from the DUP as a more extreme Protestant party.)

Really, European party groups are perhaps the least important issue in the Northern Ireland elections. Judging by party groups, you would think Northern Ireland is a mix of extreme socialists and Eurosceptics. It's not really.

I wish NI21 (which I would consider voting for if I lived there) would join EPP just so there would be a party in the UK affiliated with Europe's largest party

I'm not sure whether they'd join EPP or ALDE id elected, but joining EP groups is never a priority for uk parties that aren't actually in the EP, NI21 are not going to overtake the UUP and SDLP an time soon (although I'm neither a classical/slightly conservative liberal nor a Unionist, I do think it would be good for the political situation in NI for them to do well, although that probably would be bad news for Alliance)
Logged
Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
JOHN91043353
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,570
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #763 on: April 16, 2014, 03:44:44 PM »
« Edited: April 16, 2014, 03:57:39 PM by Swedish Cheese »

My results:

Group

53% - ALDE
51% - EFD
49% -ECR
40% - S&D
40% - GUE-NGL
38% - EPP
33% - Greens/EFA

(Just comes to prove what I've always known, the EP is mostly pure $hit.

Top candidates:

87% - Anna Zemanova (ALDE) Slovakia
78% - Anna Rosbach (ECR) Denmark
76% - Sara Skyttedal (EPP) Sweden
73% - Tomas Baranovas (ALDE) Lithuania
73% - Janusz Wojciechowski (ECR) Poland

EDIT: I find it amusing that Tender almost agrees as much with the EPP as I do. Tongue
Logged
Oak Hills
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,223
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #764 on: April 16, 2014, 08:49:49 PM »

I did the Wahlhelfer, though my understanding of German is limited.

Neos 78
Grüne 54
ÖVP 47
EUROPAanders 47
SPÖ 39
BZÖ 37
EU-STOP 33
Rekos 28
FPÖ 28
Logged
justfollowingtheelections
unempprof
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,766


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #765 on: April 16, 2014, 09:12:33 PM »

There is also the electio site, which allows you to vote on 20 of the most important votes from the EP 2009-2014. Afterwards you can see which MEP, candidate, party or group you agree with the most.

http://www.electio2014.eu/

My best match is Anna Ibrisagic (81 %) from the Swedish Moderates, and my best Danish match is the Conservative Bendt Bendtsen (80 %). My worst match is Marie-Christine Vergiat from the French Front de Gauche (13 %), and my worst Danish match is Søren Søndergaard from the People's Movement against the EU (23 %).

Groupwise the match is:
ALDE 70 %
EPP 61 %
ECR 59 %
S&D 50 %
EFD 43 %
Greens/EFA 41 %
GUE-NGL 30 %

I did this too.  My best matches:
Greens 48%, S&D 46, GUE 44, EPP 38, ALDE 31, ECR 29, EFD 27.

By country:
Austria: Europa anders
Belgium: Parti socialiste (S&D) and "Stand up for the United States of Europe" (tie)
Bulgaria: Coalition for Bulgaria (S&D)
Croatia: Hrvatska seljačka stranka (EPP)
Cyprus: Democratic Party (S&D)
Czech Rep: Česká strana sociálně demokratická (S&D)
Denmark: Socialdemokratiet (s&d)
Estonia: Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
Finland: Vasemmistoliitto (GUE)
France: Mouvement Démocrate (ALDE)
Germany: Piratenpartei
Greece: Ecologist Greens (Greens)
Hungary: Magyar Szocialista Párt (s&d)
Ireland: Fianna Fáil Party (ALDE)
Italy: Italia dei Valori - Lista Di Pietro (ALDE)
Latvia: Par cilvēka tiesībām vienotā Latvijā (Greens)
Lithuania: Lietuvos Valstiečių ir Žaliųjų Sąjunga and Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) (tie)
Luxembourg: Piratepartei
Malta: Partit Laburista (s&d)
Netherlands: Partij van de Arbeid (s&d)
Poland: Unia Pracy (s&d)
Portugal: LIVRE (Greens)
Romania: Partidul România Mare
Slovakia: 3-way tie between S&D, ALDE and NI
Slovenia: Solidarnost
Spain: Iniciativa per Catalunya Verds (Greens)
Sweden: Miljöpartiet de gröna (Greens)
UK: Plaid Cymru - Party of Wales (Greens)



Logged
Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
htmldon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,983
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.03, S: -2.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #766 on: April 16, 2014, 11:00:53 PM »

Groups:
EFD: 68%
ALDE: 65%
EPP 65% (the one I prefer)
GUE-NGL 55% (Huh)
ECR 50%
Greens/EFA: 50%
S&D: 50%

Top candidate:
Jacek Protasiewicz (Poland PO) 80%
Chris Whiteside (UK Conservative) 75%
Lena Kolarska-Bobinska (Poland PO) 73%

Top parties:
Centre Party (Finland) 74%
Nationalist Party (Malta) 71%
Logged
Enno von Loewenstern
Rookie
**
Posts: 156
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #767 on: April 17, 2014, 04:01:38 AM »

From The Independent

"The UK Independence Party is on course to win the largest share of the vote in elections for the European Parliament in May, according to a ComRes opinion poll for The Independent on Sunday. Nigel Farage's Ukip is in the lead on 30 per cent, two points ahead of Labour, on 28 per cent, with the Conservatives in third place on 21 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on only 8 per cent.

Such a result would be a remarkable victory for a party with no MPs, and would probably double Ukip's 13 seats in the Brussels parliament that it won four years ago. It would be a bitter blow to David Cameron, whose party is already deeply anxious about the threat of Ukip eating into its vote in the general election next year."
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #768 on: April 17, 2014, 06:17:52 AM »

First Europa Anders (Europe Differently) posters (they will print and set up 3.000 posters in mostly the biggest cities in Austria, hardly any in the rural areas - which means we can expect a much bigger percentage for the leftist list in urban areas rather than rural ones):



"Social Democrats vote differently."



"For a Europe of people, instead of banks."



"HYPO bailout boycott. No taxpayer money for banks."



"We can do things differently."
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #769 on: April 17, 2014, 06:40:25 AM »

If anyone's gaining here in the final 5 weeks, I think it will be:

* Europa Anders (because Ehrenhauser's protest is gaining some traction and he's been in the media lately, so they could get 3-4%)

* EU-STOP (the same as EA, they have been on the ORF news yesterday at 10pm, which is watched by 800.000 people. Because many people might simply vote for them because they see "EU-STOP" written on the ballot, they could get 3-4% too)

* NEOS (will mostly gain because they are a new party and "unused"/without a scandal so far. But I don't think they will do as well as Martin did in 2009, so basically about 12-15% - mostly from ex-Green and ex-ÖVP voters)

...

Parties that will likely do worse than expected:

* ÖVP (loses voters to NEOS)
* SPÖ (loses voters to EA)
* FPÖ (loses voters to EU-STOP & REKOS)
* Greens (loses voters to NEOS and EA)
* BZÖ (loses voters to the non-voter column)

Parties that will neither lose nor gain in the next weeks:

* REKOS (I think they will stay at around 1-2%)
Logged
Enno von Loewenstern
Rookie
**
Posts: 156
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #770 on: April 17, 2014, 06:47:31 AM »

From The Independent

"The UK Independence Party is on course to win the largest share of the vote in elections for the European Parliament in May, according to a ComRes opinion poll for The Independent on Sunday. Nigel Farage's Ukip is in the lead on 30 per cent, two points ahead of Labour, on 28 per cent, with the Conservatives in third place on 21 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on only 8 per cent.

Such a result would be a remarkable victory for a party with no MPs, and would probably double Ukip's 13 seats in the Brussels parliament that it won four years ago. It would be a bitter blow to David Cameron, whose party is already deeply anxious about the threat of Ukip eating into its vote in the general election next year."

Do you think Cameron would call a referendum if UKIP won?

No, at least not immediately. Cameron's strategy is to negotiate with the EU new conditions of UKs membership. He hopes to get support from Merkel and other Nordic and Central European countries, because these countries need the UK as a net contributor and ally against the Mediterranean countries. In his dreams, he wants then as a successful negotiator hold a referendum and tells the people: NOW you really can vote yes.

The polls are currently very volatile in the UK. But should UKIP really win the European elections, the conservative MPs will make in fear in their pants. Then they could require a referendum, or electoral pacts with UKIP. In both cases, the coalition with the EU-philic LibDems would burst. It is truly an open situation with many possible scenarios. But Camerons option is that he holds the Tories together somehow, the new double-sized UKIP group in the EP decomposes and produces dissenters and scandals, Cameron wins by a miracle the next election, is negotiating with the EU, holds the referundum and wins it all.

As a German euroskeptic who is not against the EU membership of Germany (but I demand strong reforms!), two hearts beat in my chest. I understand UKIP and the Majority of the Tories, but an EU without the UK would be a nightmare for Germany.
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #771 on: April 17, 2014, 06:57:05 AM »

Didn't see this mentioned elsewhere: Nuovo Centrodestra is officially running with UDC. I guess that will put them over the threshold by a point or two.
Logged
Enno von Loewenstern
Rookie
**
Posts: 156
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #772 on: April 17, 2014, 06:59:25 AM »

If anyone's gaining here in the final 5 weeks, I think it will be:

* Europa Anders (because Ehrenhauser's protest is gaining some traction and he's been in the media lately, so they could get 3-4%)

* FPÖ (loses voters to EU-STOP & REKOS)
* REKOS (I think they will stay at around 1-2%)

I would like to see Ehrenhauser with 3% to split the left-wing vote. ;-)

The Freedom Party is losing share to the REKOS, but the REKOS win anything? How comes that? Or do you think that REKOS is losing as much to EU-STOP as it wins from the FPÖ? Or how do I understand your prognosis?
Logged
Enno von Loewenstern
Rookie
**
Posts: 156
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #773 on: April 17, 2014, 07:04:44 AM »

Didn't see this mentioned elsewhere: Nuovo Centrodestra is officially running with UDC. I guess that will put them over the threshold by a point or two.

We had that already. :-) But FdI-AN has remained without a partner, and must therefore tremble. But if they get in, they will be a partner of Le Pens EAF group.
Logged
Zanas
Zanas46
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,947
France


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #774 on: April 17, 2014, 08:12:50 AM »

So I took the electio test. Unsurprisingly, my best matches are with the NGL component of GUE-NGL :


1. Hanna Sarkkinen - Vasemmistoliitto - Finlande GUE-NGL - 93%
2. Rita BORSELLINO - Partito Democratico - Italie  S&D - 91%
3. Leonard Heed - Vänsterpartiet - Suède  GUE-NGL - 91%
4. Christian Noiret - Ecolo - Belgique  Greens/EFA - 91%
5. Delfina Rossi - Iniciativa per Catalunya Verds - Espagne  Greens/EFA - 91%

Of actual incumbent MEPs, Rita Borsellino, a PD member of all things, is therefore my best match, which is a bit weird...

What is even way weirder is my matches in France Confused" :

Corinne LEPAGE ALDE 89%

Daniel COHN-BENDIT Greens/EFA 80%

(a bunch of EELV, Bennhamias, then)
yet another Modem :
Sylvie GOULARD ALDE 74%

a PS for christ's sake !
Françoise CASTEX S&D 73%

and finally my first FG one... who's the guy from overseas.

Younous OMARJEE
Liste "Alliance des Outre-Mers"
GUE-NGL
73%

At first I found these pretty weird, but actually they're not so much. I've always been a much greener than red watermelon...

By EP group it's more in line :

GUE-NGL 82%
S&D 77%
Greens/EFA 73%
ALDE 48%
EPP 39%
EFD 37%
ECR 25%
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 26 27 28 29 30 [31] 32 33 34 35 36 ... 51  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.075 seconds with 12 queries.