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Lasitten
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« Reply #775 on: April 17, 2014, 09:58:10 AM »

1. Hanna Sarkkinen - Vasemmistoliitto - Finlande GUE-NGL - 93 %

I got her too and I think I am going to vote for her Purple heart (She's second from the left)


"Toward a socialist Europe" says the campaign picture from the Left Youth of Finland.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #776 on: April 17, 2014, 10:54:16 AM »

Is Europa Anders the German equivalent of the Tsipras List or something different altogether?
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #777 on: April 17, 2014, 02:22:58 PM »

My Forecast

Voting Intentions

Democratic Party - 31,7%
5 Stars Movement - 23%
Forza Italia - 21%
New Centre Right - Udc - 5,7%
Lega Nord - 4,8%
Other Europe with Tsipras - 4,1%
=======================
Brothers of Italy - AN - 3,3%
European Choice (Civic Choice - Democratic Centre - Fare) - 2,4%
Others - 4%

Probability to overcome the threshold of 4%

Democratic Party - 100%
5 Stars Movement - 100%
Forza Italia - 100%
New Centre Right - Udc - 97,3%
Lega Nord - 80,3%
Other Europe with Tsipras - 50,6%
Brothers of Italy - AN - 19,8%
European Choice (Civic Choice - Democratic Centre - Fare) - 5%
Others - 0%
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #778 on: April 17, 2014, 03:12:32 PM »
« Edited: April 17, 2014, 03:15:35 PM by Tetro Kornbluth »

As I answered the quiz with the perspective that a) A lot of the supposed 'social issues' are not, I think, EU-wide issues (or at least the EU should not be playing an active role in them*) and b) that the economic and funding questions were too vague, I got some odd answers:

Fiorello PROVERA (Lega Nord) (!): 70% (!!!)
Mara BIOZZOTTO (Lega Nord): 69%
Lara COMI (Il Popolo del Libertá): 67%
Elisabetta GARDINI (Il Popolo del Libertá): 67%

Needless to say these are not my preferences. Hilariously after that it was mostly D66 and Venstre. That's.... more like it.

Also the last three I got were all Tories. Much better. Definitely not a fascist now.

Also:
EFD 50%
ALDE 47%
EPP 45%
Greens/EPA 45%
GUE-NGL 39%
S&D 39%
ECR 32%

Oh, dear.

* (i.e. For the GMOs question I said I was in favour of the EU granting additional rights to restrict the growing of GMOs even though I would generally be against such rights to be enforced on the level of member states)
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Cassius
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« Reply #779 on: April 17, 2014, 03:33:56 PM »

From The Independent

"The UK Independence Party is on course to win the largest share of the vote in elections for the European Parliament in May, according to a ComRes opinion poll for The Independent on Sunday. Nigel Farage's Ukip is in the lead on 30 per cent, two points ahead of Labour, on 28 per cent, with the Conservatives in third place on 21 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on only 8 per cent.

Such a result would be a remarkable victory for a party with no MPs, and would probably double Ukip's 13 seats in the Brussels parliament that it won four years ago. It would be a bitter blow to David Cameron, whose party is already deeply anxious about the threat of Ukip eating into its vote in the general election next year."

Do you think Cameron would call a referendum if UKIP won?

No, at least not immediately. Cameron's strategy is to negotiate with the EU new conditions of UKs membership. He hopes to get support from Merkel and other Nordic and Central European countries, because these countries need the UK as a net contributor and ally against the Mediterranean countries. In his dreams, he wants then as a successful negotiator hold a referendum and tells the people: NOW you really can vote yes.

The polls are currently very volatile in the UK. But should UKIP really win the European elections, the conservative MPs will make in fear in their pants. Then they could require a referendum, or electoral pacts with UKIP. In both cases, the coalition with the EU-philic LibDems would burst. It is truly an open situation with many possible scenarios. But Camerons option is that he holds the Tories together somehow, the new double-sized UKIP group in the EP decomposes and produces dissenters and scandals, Cameron wins by a miracle the next election, is negotiating with the EU, holds the referundum and wins it all.

As a German euroskeptic who is not against the EU membership of Germany (but I demand strong reforms!), two hearts beat in my chest. I understand UKIP and the Majority of the Tories, but an EU without the UK would be a nightmare for Germany.

Well, if UKIP do win top the poll in May (and that's a really big if, since Labour will probably come first) then that would be very bad news for Cameron (which is why, in recent months, the Tories have been tacitly playing up chances of UKIP success to soften the blow if they really are that successful), and he would pretty much have to confirm that there would be a referendum post 2015 (assuming the Tories get back in, which is far from certain), so as to try and stick a pin in UKIP. But since he has already effectively promised a referendum, I doubt confirming it would do much to harm the current pact with the Lib Dems (who have a stake in prolonging this government for as long as possible).

Anyway, apparently UKIP have aligned themselves with Arise the Republic, a minor French Gaullist and eurosceptic party... Do they stand a chance of getting any MEP's?
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #780 on: April 17, 2014, 03:38:57 PM »

What test are you guys taking?
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #781 on: April 17, 2014, 03:52:21 PM »

Proof that CDU and SPD have become virtually indistinguishable:




On the left, an CDU election poster: "So that Europe creates more jobs and growth."

On the right, an SPD election poster: "A Europe of GROWTH, not one of stagnancy."
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« Reply #782 on: April 17, 2014, 04:19:32 PM »

From The Independent

"The UK Independence Party is on course to win the largest share of the vote in elections for the European Parliament in May, according to a ComRes opinion poll for The Independent on Sunday. Nigel Farage's Ukip is in the lead on 30 per cent, two points ahead of Labour, on 28 per cent, with the Conservatives in third place on 21 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on only 8 per cent.

Such a result would be a remarkable victory for a party with no MPs, and would probably double Ukip's 13 seats in the Brussels parliament that it won four years ago. It would be a bitter blow to David Cameron, whose party is already deeply anxious about the threat of Ukip eating into its vote in the general election next year."

Do you think Cameron would call a referendum if UKIP won?

No, at least not immediately. Cameron's strategy is to negotiate with the EU new conditions of UKs membership. He hopes to get support from Merkel and other Nordic and Central European countries, because these countries need the UK as a net contributor and ally against the Mediterranean countries. In his dreams, he wants then as a successful negotiator hold a referendum and tells the people: NOW you really can vote yes.

The polls are currently very volatile in the UK. But should UKIP really win the European elections, the conservative MPs will make in fear in their pants. Then they could require a referendum, or electoral pacts with UKIP. In both cases, the coalition with the EU-philic LibDems would burst. It is truly an open situation with many possible scenarios. But Camerons option is that he holds the Tories together somehow, the new double-sized UKIP group in the EP decomposes and produces dissenters and scandals, Cameron wins by a miracle the next election, is negotiating with the EU, holds the referundum and wins it all.

As a German euroskeptic who is not against the EU membership of Germany (but I demand strong reforms!), two hearts beat in my chest. I understand UKIP and the Majority of the Tories, but an EU without the UK would be a nightmare for Germany.

Well, if UKIP do win top the poll in May (and that's a really big if, since Labour will probably come first) then that would be very bad news for Cameron (which is why, in recent months, the Tories have been tacitly playing up chances of UKIP success to soften the blow if they really are that successful), and he would pretty much have to confirm that there would be a referendum post 2015 (assuming the Tories get back in, which is far from certain), so as to try and stick a pin in UKIP. But since he has already effectively promised a referendum, I doubt confirming it would do much to harm the current pact with the Lib Dems (who have a stake in prolonging this government for as long as possible).

Anyway, apparently UKIP have aligned themselves with Arise the Republic, a minor French Gaullist and eurosceptic party... Do they stand a chance of getting any MEP's?

Not really. From what I gather, Débout la République is a small-time personality cult for the party's leader, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan who ran for President in 2012 and got like 2% of the vote. Gaullism is a fractious, quelle surprise!

Their only pocket of support is in Essonne, which is just outside Paris where NDA is the Assembly Member and Mayor.
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Enno von Loewenstern
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« Reply #783 on: April 17, 2014, 11:00:07 PM »
« Edited: April 18, 2014, 01:46:02 AM by Enno von Loewenstern »

From The Independent

"The UK Independence Party is on course to win the largest share of the vote in elections for the European Parliament in May, according to a ComRes opinion poll for The Independent on Sunday. Nigel Farage's Ukip is in the lead on 30 per cent, two points ahead of Labour, on 28 per cent, with the Conservatives in third place on 21 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on only 8 per cent.

Such a result would be a remarkable victory for a party with no MPs, and would probably double Ukip's 13 seats in the Brussels parliament that it won four years ago. It would be a bitter blow to David Cameron, whose party is already deeply anxious about the threat of Ukip eating into its vote in the general election next year."

Do you think Cameron would call a referendum if UKIP won?

No, at least not immediately. Cameron's strategy is to negotiate with the EU new conditions of UKs membership. He hopes to get support from Merkel and other Nordic and Central European countries, because these countries need the UK as a net contributor and ally against the Mediterranean countries. In his dreams, he wants then as a successful negotiator hold a referendum and tells the people: NOW you really can vote yes.

The polls are currently very volatile in the UK. But should UKIP really win the European elections, the conservative MPs will make in fear in their pants. Then they could require a referendum, or electoral pacts with UKIP. In both cases, the coalition with the EU-philic LibDems would burst. It is truly an open situation with many possible scenarios. But Camerons option is that he holds the Tories together somehow, the new double-sized UKIP group in the EP decomposes and produces dissenters and scandals, Cameron wins by a miracle the next election, is negotiating with the EU, holds the referundum and wins it all.

As a German euroskeptic who is not against the EU membership of Germany (but I demand strong reforms!), two hearts beat in my chest. I understand UKIP and the Majority of the Tories, but an EU without the UK would be a nightmare for Germany.

Well, if UKIP do win top the poll in May (and that's a really big if, since Labour will probably come first) then that would be very bad news for Cameron (which is why, in recent months, the Tories have been tacitly playing up chances of UKIP success to soften the blow if they really are that successful), and he would pretty much have to confirm that there would be a referendum post 2015 (assuming the Tories get back in, which is far from certain), so as to try and stick a pin in UKIP. But since he has already effectively promised a referendum, I doubt confirming it would do much to harm the current pact with the Lib Dems (who have a stake in prolonging this government for as long as possible).

Anyway, apparently UKIP have aligned themselves with Arise the Republic, a minor French Gaullist and eurosceptic party... Do they stand a chance of getting any MEP's?

Not really. From what I gather, Débout la République is a small-time personality cult for the party's leader, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan who ran for President in 2012 and got like 2% of the vote. Gaullism is a fractious, quelle surprise!

Their only pocket of support is in Essonne, which is just outside Paris where NDA is the Assembly Member and Mayor.

DLR (their motto is "non system, non extreme") has missed it in time to ally for voters noticeably with the MPF of Philippe de Villiers. Likewise, alongside the Force Vie has "raised" instead of integrating this small christian conservative movement on the DLR lists. Furthermore NDA lacks the charisma of de Villiers and particularly of Marine Le Pen. MLP has also integrated parts of the in previous elections very successful sovereignist movement into the FN RBM (SIEL). The surveys have DLR currently at 2-4% with no significant trend upwards. Between a UMP lead by Cope and a FN lead by Marine Le Pen, they a struggling to find enough Voters to surpass the hurdles in the constituencies. Already in the last election de Villiers (MPF) had been able to overcome only in his native department, the very conservative Vendee in conjunction with CPNT as Libertas. And that in a period of weak FN. I wish them the best, but do not have high hopes.

Edit: Pollwatch gives DLR 1 Seat http://www.electio2014.eu/de/pollsandscenarios/polls#country scroll down and click on France.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #784 on: April 17, 2014, 11:36:33 PM »


www.electio2014.eu
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justfollowingtheelections
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« Reply #785 on: April 18, 2014, 01:31:14 AM »

Proof that CDU and SPD have become virtually indistinguishable:




On the left, an CDU election poster: "So that Europe creates more jobs and growth."

On the right, an SPD election poster: "A Europe of GROWTH, not one of stagnancy."

I'm not disagreeing, but pretty much every party in the world says those things "growth, jobs blablablah"
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freek
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« Reply #786 on: April 18, 2014, 02:36:03 AM »

A poll for the Netherlands by TNS Nipo:


(first column for 2009 is the last poll before the elections, the 2nd one is the actual result). Huge differences between polls and actual result for PvdA and PVV.

In their poll for national parliament, D66 is the 'largest' party. The party is too pro-European for some of its voters.


(number of seats, for percentages divide by 1.5)
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #787 on: April 18, 2014, 03:47:16 AM »

Proof that CDU and SPD have become virtually indistinguishable:




On the left, an CDU election poster: "So that Europe creates more jobs and growth."

On the right, an SPD election poster: "A Europe of GROWTH, not one of stagnancy."

I'm not disagreeing, but pretty much every party in the world says those things "growth, jobs blablablah"

Aside from the interchangable slogans, it's also hilarious that both parties use orange-coloured posters now, even though the SPD's traditional colour has always been red.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #788 on: April 18, 2014, 04:37:07 AM »

I got:

Saara Ilvessalo (G-FI) 90%
Tine Hördum (S-DE) 88%
Matthias Somers (S-BE) 88%

Michael CRAMER (G-DE) 86%

Greens/EFA 75%
S&D 70%
EUL/NGL 70%
ALDE 55%
EPP 53%
EFD 34%
ECR 25%


France (best party is PRG (lol), then EELV):

Corinne Bord (PS) 80%
Hélčne Flautre (EELV) 79%
Daniel Cohn-Bendit (EELV) 78%

Nathalie Griesbeck (MoDem): 78%
Nicole Kiil-Nielsen (EELV) 78%

Italy (best party is the now defunct IdV, followed by Tsipras List):

Francesca Balzani (PD) 84%
Gianni Vattimo (IdV) 83%
Guido Milana (PD) 80%
Adriano Prospera (Tsipras) 79%
Giommaria Uggias (IdV) 78%


Best party by country:

Austria - Grünen 75%
Belgium - Stand Up for the United States of Europe (?) 96%
Bulgaria - National Movement for Stability and Progress 71%
Croatia - Hrvatska seljačka stranka 83%
Cyprus - Democratic Party 58%
Czech Rep. - CSSD 69%
Denmark - SFP 68%
Estonia - Social democrats 68%
Finalnd - Vihrea Liitto 74%
Germany - Piratenpartei 91%
Geece - Greens 80%
Hungary - MSZP 70%
Ireland - Labour 68%

Latvia - Par cilvēka tiesībām vienotā Latvijā 75%
Lithuania - Tėvynės Sąjunga – Lietuvos Krikščionys Demokratai 68%
Luxembourg - Piratepartei 85%
Malta - Labour 65%
Netherlands - PdvA 84%
Poland - Unia Pracy 65%

Portugal - Livre 100% (!)
Romania - Partidul România Mare 75%
Slovakia - Nový Parlament 75%
Slovenia - Solidarnost 80%

Spain - ICV 81%
Sweden - Piratpartiet 73%
UK - Green Party 75%
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #789 on: April 18, 2014, 06:13:08 AM »

Is Europa Anders the German equivalent of the Tsipras List or something different altogether?

Europa Anders is the Austrian equivalent of the Tsipras List, not the German one ... Wink

Martin Ehrenhauser recently said in an interview with the "Standard":

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derStandard.at: Do you see yourself as to the left of the SPÖ ?

Ehrenhauser: Yes, definitely. We support the European frontrunner of the European Left, Alexis Tsipras. And he supports us. We are part of the European Left.

http://derstandard.at/1397302000056/Ich-moechte-einfach-in-die-Koepfe-der-Leute-reindringen
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EPG
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« Reply #790 on: April 18, 2014, 06:44:56 AM »

Some of the results of the MEP-policy test are quite interesting. For instance, Ireland's Fianna Fáil seems to vote mostly in line with the rest of ALDE, safe in the knowledge that none of their conservative voters back home monitor their vote record, much less care. In reality, typical ALDE positions on abortion or euthanasia would make FF's skin crawl.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #791 on: April 18, 2014, 07:09:39 AM »

As I answered the quiz with the perspective that a) A lot of the supposed 'social issues' are not, I think, EU-wide issues (or at least the EU should not be playing an active role in them*) and b) that the economic and funding questions were too vague, I got some odd answers:

Fiorello PROVERA (Lega Nord) (!): 70% (!!!)
Mara BIOZZOTTO (Lega Nord): 69%
Lara COMI (Il Popolo del Libertá): 67%
Elisabetta GARDINI (Il Popolo del Libertá): 67%

Needless to say these are not my preferences. Hilariously after that it was mostly D66 and Venstre. That's.... more like it.

Also the last three I got were all Tories. Much better. Definitely not a fascist now.

Also:
EFD 50%
ALDE 47%
EPP 45%
Greens/EPA 45%
GUE-NGL 39%
S&D 39%
ECR 32%

Oh, dear.

* (i.e. For the GMOs question I said I was in favour of the EU granting additional rights to restrict the growing of GMOs even though I would generally be against such rights to be enforced on the level of member states)

Yeah, join the club. My answers were a more extreme version of this.
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Velasco
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« Reply #792 on: April 20, 2014, 04:54:30 AM »

El Mundo/ Sigma Dos poll for Spain.

PP 33.1% 20/21 seats; PSOE 30,2% 18/19; IU+ICV+Anova 10.4% 6; UPyD 7.2% 4; CiU+PNV+CC 4.2% 2; ERC 3.2% 2; Cs 2.3% 1.

EHBildu+BNG 1.3%; Podemos 1,2%; Vox 1.1%; Equo+Compromís+CHA 1.1%; Others 4.7%.
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doktorb
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« Reply #793 on: April 20, 2014, 07:01:42 AM »


EPP
EPP
Group of the European People's Party (Christian Democrats)

55%
GUE-NGL
GUE-NGL
Confederal Group of the European United Left - Nordic Green Left

50%
ECR
ECR
European Conservatives and Reformists Group

45%
ALDE/ADLE
ALDE/ADLE
Group of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe

45%
S&D
S&D
Group of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats in the European Parliament

45%
Greens/EFA
GREENS/EFA
Group of the Greens/European Free Alliance

40%
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Andrea
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« Reply #794 on: April 21, 2014, 12:44:43 PM »

Italian PD giving a run for their money to German speaking parties in terms of WTF electoral posters....

http://www.repubblica.it/politica/2014/04/04/foto/europee_i_manifesti_elettorali_del_pd-82729484/1/#1

Slogan's translations are
"Broadband networks soon. Alex asks us this"
"My studies in Paris, my internship in Berlin, my life here. Chiara asks us this"
"Italy that wins beating austerity. Claudia asks us this"
"No bufale on my table, except DOP bufale. Gianna asks us this" (bufala means both the mozzarella and hoax)
"An solidarity Europe is also a solid Europe. Mario asks to us this"

A couple could works (third and 5th). I suppose we can target the mozzarella lobby though!
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EPG
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« Reply #795 on: April 21, 2014, 12:51:02 PM »

Not sure if Ireland is better or worse. Certainly tries less hard.

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change08
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« Reply #796 on: April 21, 2014, 01:07:53 PM »

No everybody. These ones hit them out the park.



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Velasco
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« Reply #797 on: April 21, 2014, 01:22:27 PM »

Any explanation as to how Partido Popular has managed to overtake PSOE in the polls?

Impressive considering even some popular governments have received hidings in mid term elections like EP due to low turnouts. And the PP government are hardly popular.

What happened to Partido X, the M5S of Iberia?

PSOE wasn't overtaking PSOE in all the polls released in Spain. Pollwatch shows a perfect tie between PP and PSOE based on an average of EP polls conducted by NC Report, Metroscopia and Ivymark pollsters.

http://www.electio2014.eu/es/pollsandscenarios/polls#country

From those three, I only regard Metroscopia as reliable, although its polls may have a slight PSOE bias (NC Report only works for La Razón newspaper and has a strong PP bias, so the average is more or less balanced). Sigma Dos is a professional pollster, but its polls are made for El Mundo (PP friendly too) and use to have a PP bias (predicted 47% and 198 seats for the populares in the 2011 election when the actual result was 44.6% and 186). However, PP has a slight advantage in other polls and I think this is the most likely outcome. Perhaps the almost imperceptible signals of economic recovery and the strong propaganda campaign launched by the government might help PP. On the other hand, if the election is competitive is not because PSOE is strong, it's just because PP has been losing a lot of support from disillusioned voters and its centrist/swing voters are probably lost. It's good news for the government that the Vox Party is not gaining traction nor damaging too much the right-wing base. All will depend on how PP base turn out in the election day. PP is losing 10% or more in the polls with regard to the 2009 EP elections, whereas PSOE is not improving since its catastrophic performance of 2011.

As for Partido X, I think it's an internet-based party lacking of real support. There are too much lists ready to catch protest vote from Podemos and IU to Cs and UPyD, not to mention other small parties and the multiple regionalist coalitions.
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justfollowingtheelections
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« Reply #798 on: April 21, 2014, 01:48:45 PM »

No everybody. These ones hit them out the park.





Wow.  I think Farage is a really inelligent man, but seeing this and hearing his opinions on climate change, I have to say that he's just as bad as U.S. Republicans.
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« Reply #799 on: April 21, 2014, 02:52:23 PM »

Why do so many Americans love Farage? I always thought his Little-Englander anti-immigration schtick was pretty much limited in appeal to Europeans. It seems odd that I see a lot of Yanks who love him. Not criticizing you, just a slightly bemusing trend I've noticed.

http://www.euractiv.com/sections/eu-elections-2014/martin-schulz-launches-european-campaign-paris-301660

Schulz campaign launches which includes a pan-European minimum wage. I'm guessing one tied to local standards of living, otherwise it would be a bit, erm, dramatic.
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