EP elections 2014

[YL]

Sorry to post a BNP video, but this has to be seen to be believed:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=am2-fVIkf8I

The BNP are going for the lucrative anti-hijab-penguins vote I see. Also Nick Griffin is ten feet tall, everybody else in the party is literally a cardboard cut out and the Fascists have well and truly run out of money/taste.

Did you encounter their van which was driving around Sheffield playing loud music last month?  Apparently they were playing their version of the Wurzels' Combine Harvester song in Hillsborough.

[afleitch]

YouGov/The Scum: Labour 29, UKIP 28, Con 22, LDem 9, Green 8, Nat 3, Others 2

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Basically polling for Euro elections is a total crapshoot. The poor polling firms don't even really know what they're measuring or how to do so. *shrugs*

They still have time to prove themselves. Polling in the last week or so in 2009 wasn't bad. The problem is that polling for Others is curiously low at this stage in the campaign.

[You kip if you want to...]

YouGov/The Scum: Labour 29, UKIP 28, Con 22, LDem 9, Green 8, Nat 3, Others 2

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Basically polling for Euro elections is a total crapshoot. The poor polling firms don't even really know what they're measuring or how to do so. *shrugs*

They still have time to prove themselves. Polling in the last week or so in 2009 wasn't bad. The problem is that polling for Others is curiously low at this stage in the campaign.

I guess a chunk of that could be put down to the UKIP factor and 2009 being the expenses election.

[MaxQue]

Sorry to post a BNP video, but this has to be seen to be believed:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=am2-fVIkf8I

The BNP are going for the lucrative anti-hijab-penguins vote I see. Also Nick Griffin is ten feet tall, everybody else in the party is literally a cardboard cut out and the Fascists have well and truly run out of money/taste.

Too long.

They should cut it into various 20 or 30 second ads and remove that silly child song.

Needs more "metal trash music", like:

"MUSLIMMS ! MUSLIMMSSS ! NII***ERRS coming to OUR SHORES - in boats ! OUR SHOOOREES !"

The party have to fill "Party Political Broadcasts" slottimes on TV, which are 5 minutes long. Any other type of TV advertising is forbidden.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

UKIP: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jCcaDIbwwQY

Tories: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IF45vlC5w_Y

Labour: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=41_zFHcG1R0

LibDem: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WuAhD5haRMA

DUP: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6EorSOoeS50

PC: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bLfj9eTz2m8

BNP: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQFjJvvPUi4

Greens: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iitH2FsWarE

UUP: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tr3h8rnwLtI

TUV: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VlkJHb407rs

[Middle-aged Europe]

And the award for the most bizarre TV ad of a major German party in this election goes to the Left Party and their ad "angry, middle-aged, white guy yelling at you":

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vt47zSPgu78

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

And the award for the most bizarre TV ad of a major German party in this election goes to the Left Party and their ad "angry, middle-aged, white guy yelling at you":

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vt47zSPgu78

The way that man waves his hands and moves while screaming angry reminds of another German...

[Franzl]

And the award for the most bizarre TV ad of a major German party in this election goes to the Left Party and their ad "angry, middle-aged, white guy yelling at you":

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vt47zSPgu78

The way that man waves his hands and moves while screaming angry reminds of another German...

I don't recall doing that in Lund...

[Diouf]

New Danish poll. Epinion for DR.



The conservatives are now within 1 % of a seat. With the Liberals on 24.3 % and four seats in the electoral alliance, the Conservatives will need 6.1 % to take one of the Liberal seats.
The Social Liberals and SF both get a seat with this poll. With the Social Democrats on 22.4 % and five seats in the electoral alliance, they only need 5.6 % to get a seat.
However, DF is not far away from a fourth seat, which would be gained from one of the two electoral alliances and make life very difficult for either SF or the Conservatives.

Also the poll included the referendum on the unified patent court. 42 % will vote in favour, 18 % will vote no, and 40 % don't know. I suspect the final result will be much closer. However, the no-side not only needs a majority for no, it also needs at least 30 % of those entitled to vote to vote no.

[Cassius]

Juncker and SChultz? Are the European parties deliberately trolling us with those choices?

In my own humble opinion, this whole Europe-wide 'election campaign', with debates and 'candidates' for the Presidency of the Commission is basically one spectacular exercise in trolling.

[EPG]

I do not see it as trolling, I see it as an attempt to strengthen the European Parliament versus the very obvious power exercised by the European Council in recent years, by providing the groundwork for a battle on the head of the Commission. I don't think the EP will win because I think they will lack a majority committed to any one candidate, so they will be divided and conquered by the big European People's Party bloc in the European Council, which will work in tandem with the EPP faction in the EP, which isn't strongly committed to its candidate (a contrast to S&D's commitment to Schulz).

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP and the Greens have now finally realized that they can't ignore the new liberal NEOS party forever, without losing additional voters to them.

The Greens have put out a 10-point flyer that shows the differences between the Greens and NEOS:



...

The ÖVP meanwhile attacked a NEOS's MP for his belief in the "Flying Spaghetti Monster"-religion.

And they started ballons with "ONLY HOT AIR !" on them in front of the building where NEOS held their campaign kickoff (see below).

NEOS and also the European Liberals had their campaign launch yesterday in Vienna, with speeches from Angelika Mlinar (the Austrian frontrunner) and Guy Verhofstadt (the European frontrunner) and Olli Rehn:

[YL]

The 4 Freedoms Party, set up to be a UK branch of the European People's Party, now have a website at http://www.4freedomsparty.eu/, though there isn't much there yet.  They're only standing in London, and I don't see them coming close to winning a seat.

On a different matter, how on the ball is the typical UKIP voter?  Because, in most English regions, when given their ballot paper they're going to find that the first party on the list is "An Independence from Europe - UK Independence Now", which is Mike Nattrass's splinter party; how many of them are going to fall for that?

And another YouGov poll for the UK, commissioned by the Green Party, says Lab 30 UKIP 27 Con 22 LD 9 Green 8.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A possible repeat of the Literal Democrat fiasco?

[Tender Branson]

New Ireland poll (RED C survey conducted between April 28 and May 1 for the Sunday Business Post):

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http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/poll-shows-transfers-may-scupper-sf-in-euro-elections-629527.html

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

On a different matter, how on the ball is the typical UKIP voter?  Because, in most English regions, when given their ballot paper they're going to find that the first party on the list is "An Independence from Europe - UK Independence Now", which is Mike Nattrass's splinter party; how many of them are going to fall for that?

And another YouGov poll for the UK, commissioned by the Green Party, says Lab 30 UKIP 27 Con 22 LD 9 Green 8.

Not particularly, I'd imagine. That's mainly based on the 2012 London elections where UKIP underperformed due to messing up their name on the ballot paper.

Strange news from Greece, where public funding awards biggest election sum to that most relevant of parties, erm, PASOK.

http://www.enetenglish.gr/?i=news.en.article&id=1891

Sorry to post a BNP video, but this has to be seen to be believed:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=am2-fVIkf8I

The BNP are going for the lucrative anti-hijab-penguins vote I see. Also Nick Griffin is ten feet tall, everybody else in the party is literally a cardboard cut out and the Fascists have well and truly run out of money/taste.

Did you encounter their van which was driving around Sheffield playing loud music last month?  Apparently they were playing their version of the Wurzels' Combine Harvester song in Hillsborough.

Hahaha, the one good thing about UKIP's rise is how much the "traditional" anti-immigration parties are unnerved. (Also I hope the Wurzels sue them)

[EPG]

New Ireland poll (RED C survey conducted between April 28 and May 1 for the Sunday Business Post):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/poll-shows-transfers-may-scupper-sf-in-euro-elections-629527.html

Very different to what we were told last week. As in the presidential election and single-constituency general election polling, you can't trust the polls!!!

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Very different to what we were told last week. As in the presidential election and single-constituency general election polling, you can't trust the polls!!!

Funnily enough, that's UKIP's next slogan.

[Tender Branson]

How much will the parties spend on the EP election campaign ?

* ÖVP: 4 Mio. €
* SPÖ: 4 Mio. €
* FPÖ: 2.5-3 Mio. €
* Greens: 1.75 Mio. €
* NEOS: 1.2 Mio. €
* BZÖ: 500.000 €
* EA: 100.000 €
* EU-STOP: 10-20.000 €
* REKOS: unknown

Which means the parties will spend some 14-15 Mio. € on their campaigns (20-21 Mio. $).

Parties who enter the EP will get 12.8 Mio. € back in public financing.

http://www.vienna.at/eu-wahl-millionen-kosten-fuer-bund-und-wahlkampf-der-parteien/3949269

[Tender Branson]

What to do on a rainy Sunday afternoon ?

Yes, making the Austrian Wikipedia article about the EP elections readable and expanding it a bit.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Swedish EP-poll by Sifo:

31,2% - Social Democrats
21,7% - Moderates
16,1% - Greens
8,1% - People's Party
5,8% - Left Party
4,1% - Sweden Democrats
3,7% - Christian Democrats
3,6% - Centre Party
3,2% - Feminist Initiative
2,2% - Pirate Party
0,3% - The June List

[Tender Branson]

Swedish EP-poll by Sifo:

31,2% - Social Democrats
21,7% - Moderates
16,1% - Greens
8,1% - People's Party
5,8% - Left Party
4,1% - Sweden Democrats
3,7% - Christian Democrats
3,6% - Centre Party
3,2% - Feminist Initiative
2,2% - Pirate Party
0,3% - The June List

How reliable is Sifo ?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Lib Dems in 5th:

[Antonio the Sixth]

MP being so high and SD so low makes that poll look like a huge outlier.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

YouGov's solution to the EuroParlPollProblem seems to be to release a billion polls so that at least one of them is right.