EP elections 2014

[Hash]

Panzergirl and her ilk don't want to debate because she doesn't know the first thing about how the EU actually works and she'd probably get asked the inconvenient question of why she never shows up to the EP and only shows up enough to collect her paycheck. It's way cooler to bitch inanely about TEH EUROKRATS and INDEPENDENCE.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

She is also Putin's poodle.

Some are called Putin's poodle and some are Obama's poodle ...

[Franzl]

BW (3rd biggest state in Germany) EU poll:



AfD at 9% must be a new high ...

Not that the EU election is in any way relevant, but the AfD numbers are gettimg a bit troubling.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Rheinland-Pfalz (Rhineland-Palatinate) state of Germany

CDU 42%
SPD 28%
Greens 8%
AfD 6%
FDP 5%
Left 3%
Pirates 3%
Others 5%

Although FDP, Left and Pirates are explicitly mentioned, still 5% for "Others" ...

The last nationwide poll for EP elections had 8% minor parties. If this would come true there will be much more german MEPs from minor parties and consequently less from the main parties than expected. So far I can not see that pollwatch and others identify this approximate. What could 8% "others" probably mean? A guess (and nothing more): 2,5% Pirates, 1,5% Free Voters, 1,5% NPD, 1% Animal Protection, 1% Die Partei and one or two parties around the necessary 0,5%. That would lead to 2-3 seats for Pirates, 1-2 Free Voters, 1-2 NPD, 1 Animal Protection, 1 Die Partei and 1 or 2 for other minor parties. 7-11 seats!!!

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup poll (probably their last poll, because Austrian pollsters are unlikely to release polls in the week before the election):



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/EU-Wahl-SPOe-fuehrt-FPOe-holt-auf/143439100

The same poll found that in federal elections SPÖ and FPÖ would have 25% each, the ÖVP 20%, NEOS 14% and the Greens 13%, BZÖ 1%, TS 1% and "others" 1%.

[Diouf]

Swedish poll by Novus for Ekot



The Pirate Party is very close to regaining one of its seats; the threshold is four percent.

Seat distribution
Moderates 4
Liberals 2
Centre Party 0
Christian Democrats 1
Social Democrats 6
Left 2
Greens 3
Sweden Democrats 2
June List 0
Pirate Party 0
Feminist Initiative 0

[Zanas]

Lots of polls in France lately, counted six in the last 10 days. Not gonna put them all here, but I'll grant you with a weighted average of my crafting, taking into account sample size, phone/online polling (only one firm polled by phone btw...), and obsolescence by date.

UMP   21,87   19
PS   16,65   14
EELV   9,10   6
Modem-UDI   8,84   6
FG   6,94   4
FN   23,21   22
NPA   1,43   0
DLR   2,54   0
ca. 10% Others

Broad tendencies are :
FN a bit ahead of UMP in polling, absolutely not sure how this could end. There is virtually no FN-shy effect anymore, and UMP voters are in all polls more likely to turn out, mainly because older. So I'm still with UMP in the lead.

EELV and Alternative up a bit, possibly hitting 10 eventually. But those two are constantly the least sure about their vote in all polls.

PS hitting its floor, but not going, IMO, to hit its record low of 1994 (14.5%).

FG declining, not dramatically though, going towards a status quo in seats.

DLR getting closer and closer to safe 7th place, but nowhere near a seat.

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ is out with a (actually not badly done) 20-minute propaganda video today:

"Democracy under Pressure: How the EU disempowers countries and its citizens."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WbxBaYT2si0

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen

CDU/CSU 38%
SPD 27%
Greens 11%
Left 8%
AfD 6%
FDP 3%
Others 7%

[justfollowingtheelections]

A poll on the winner of last night's debate from europedecides.eu

Full #TellEurope poll results:
@tsipras_eu 50%
@GuyVerhofstadt 33%
@SkaKeller 10%
@MartinSchulz 5%
@JunckerEU 3%

and yet, the commission president will be either Juncker or Schulz .

[afleitch]

I still haven't made up my mind on who to vote for with a few days to go. That's probably the latest decision since I first started voting.

[EPG]

How the Periphery views the Spitzenkandidaten: "European debate, between people you probably wouldn’t recognise, takes place".

Very important point:

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[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I still haven't made up my mind on who to vote for with a few days to go. That's probably the latest decision since I first started voting.

Vote Tory!

[SPQR]

Latest polls give EPP a 3 seats lead on the PES.

[Tender Branson]

Vorarlberg (Austrian state) EU poll:

[Tender Branson]

New Austrian poll (Unique Research/Profil):

26% ÖVP
25% SPÖ
20% FPÖ
13% Greens
10% NEOS
  6% Others

http://www.profil.at/articles/1420/576/375257/umfrage-oevp-eu-wahl-neos-gruenen

Worst result for NEOS in quite a few months.

[Diouf]

Increased speculation that DF and the Finns Party might join the ECR after the elections. Some of the moderate Tory MEPs are warning against an inclusion of these parties, but I think it's fair to say that they are in a minority in the party.

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www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/16/conservative-leader-euro-parliament-courts-anti-immigration-party

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Increased speculation that DF and the Finns Party might join the ECR after the elections. Some of the moderate Tory MEPs are warning against an inclusion of these parties, but I think it's fair to say that they are in a minority in the party.

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www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/16/conservative-leader-euro-parliament-courts-anti-immigration-party

According to rumors, AfD is not included, as Merkel has intervened (which means that Merkel leads two groups now   ) The AfD is now trying to form a group with ODS, PiS, NOVA etc. N-VA goes probably with ECR. If the Tories really take the Finns and DPP on board, UKIP will have a huge problem to continue EFD. It will be exiting to see, how the different eurosceptical forces will group in the new EP. I really would like to see a group consisting of Tories, PiS, ODS, AfD, N-VA, Finns, DPP, CU and other moderate national conservative parties.

[You kip if you want to...]

If they take True Finns and DPP, good luck tryna call UKIP out as extreme.

[politicus]

If they take True Finns and DPP, good luck tryna call UKIP out as extreme.

It might create the opposite problem for the DPP as a partnership with the Tories would jeopardize their attempt to be seen as right wing Social Democrats. Their lone present representative Morten Messerschmidt is a right winger on economics (and climate change.. and prety much everything else..), but with 3-4 seat after the elections their group would include SD-types. So they would run the same risk as last time when Anna Rosbach left and later joined The Environmental Party - Focus.
Tories = respectability, but also the kind of policies their working class voters and pensioners don't like.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

I still haven't made up my mind on who to vote for with a few days to go. That's probably the latest decision since I first started voting.

me neither actually. i'm certainly not thrilled that all the halfways decent parties want to ban gmos.

[Franzl]

I still haven't made up my mind on who to vote for with a few days to go. That's probably the latest decision since I first started voting.

me neither actually. i'm certainly not thrilled that all the halfways decent parties want to ban gmos.

I'm undecided as well. Have been considering voting for "Die Partei" for the lulz....

[Hifly]

I still haven't made up my mind on who to vote for with a few days to go. That's probably the latest decision since I first started voting.

me neither actually. i'm certainly not thrilled that all the halfways decent parties want to ban gmos.

I'm undecided as well. Have been considering voting for "Die Partei" for the lulz....

Vote CDU.

[Franzl]

I still haven't made up my mind on who to vote for with a few days to go. That's probably the latest decision since I first started voting.

me neither actually. i'm certainly not thrilled that all the halfways decent parties want to ban gmos.

I'm undecided as well. Have been considering voting for "Die Partei" for the lulz....

Vote CDU.

I may, but your recommendation doesn't exactly strengthen the argument for doing so.

[EPG]

Farage appeals to the same British base as other populist right-wingers. The Conservatives are a middle-class, but non-pro-European, party which would otherwise fit perfectly well in the right-wing of the EPP. They have strange bedfellows at the moment, but everybody has strange bedfellows in the EP.