EP elections 2014

[Lasitten]

I personally always vote for the party I feel closer to ideologically no matter how small it is (in 2012 I wanted Obama to win, but I voted for Stein).  It might seem like a wasted vote, but who knows maybe one day the USA Green Party will become a force, and maybe that one vote I gave it, will give them the courage to continue.

I completely agree on this; there's no useless vote.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Last two polls from Sweden:

Ipsos:

S - 24,9%
M - 16,5%
MP - 13,8%
FP - 10,4%
V - 8,4%
SD - 6,9%
KD - 6,3%
C - 6,0%
F! - 4,5%
PP- 1,8%

Sifo:

S - 28,3%
M - 18,1%
MP - 12,5%
FP - 8,8%
SD - 8,6%
V - 6,6%
C - 5,3%
KD - 4,9%
F! - 4,3%
PP- 2,2%

The polls for this thing is all over the place. The only thing that is certain is that nothing is certain.

And that the Greens will do exceedingly well, and the Social Democrats will be the largest party.

[Tender Branson]

Today is the last day to apply for absentee/postal ballots in person.

Tomorrow I will post the total number of requested ballots (which could be an indicator of turnout).

For Sunday, some bad news for election day turnout: The weather is projected to be great, which means many people will be out for biking or for a walk instead of voting.

[SPQR]

I'm voting on Saturday, but I don't know who to vote for. I'm torn between the greenies (EELV), which will win at least one seat in my constituency and which is the major party I agree with the most but I'm not a big fan of them since they're useless and idiotic careerists and their performance in government was crappy (otoh, I credit them for not buying into Valls' scam and their MEPs are actually competent); or the tiny and irrelevant regionalist list (R&PS), which stands zero chance of winning seats and will do horribly, but they're probably the one list I sympathize with the most as a French regionalist myself. I've also considered voting 'Nouvelle donne', a new leftist-progressive party which wants some FDR-like New Deal.

Any recommendations?

I guess Nouvelle Donne wouldn't be a bad choice, but it's a wasted vote so meh. I'm glad I can vote in Italy instead, so that I can give my vote to a pro-Tsipras party that isn't led by a sanctimonious moron.

The Italian pro-Tsipras party is just as bad
Same bunch of old leftists who were in Rivoluzione Civile last year...

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

For Sunday, some bad news for election day turnout: The weather is projected to be great, which means many people will be out for biking or for a walk instead of voting.

Oh c'mon! This must be the greatest political myth of all time. Have there ever been any actual proof that weather affect turn-out except in the most extreme weather conditions? Every election you hear reports that turn-out will be down because the weather was too nice, so people went out-side instead, or too bad, so people didn't want to leave home, or too mediocre, so people didn't get in the right mood to go and vote.

I've however never seen any scientific proof that there is even correlation, let alone cause, between a certain weather and a certain turn-out.   

[Tender Branson]

For Sunday, some bad news for election day turnout: The weather is projected to be great, which means many people will be out for biking or for a walk instead of voting.

Oh c'mon! This must be the greatest political myth of all time. Have there ever been any actual proof that weather affect turn-out except in the most extreme weather conditions? Every election you hear reports that turn-out will be down because the weather was too nice, so people went out-side instead, or too bad, so people didn't want to leave home, or too mediocre, so people didn't get in the right mood to go and vote.

I've however never seen any scientific proof that there is even correlation, let alone cause, between a certain weather and a certain turn-out.   

Don't know if there's something scientific out there to analyze these situations, but I think weather could play at least a minor role.

[SPQR]

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379413001212

No effect,according to him.

[Zanas]

So absolutely no exit poll for the UK ? That's disappointing. Anyway, in France the media, after having rooted for FN all the way to the election (directly or indirectly), are now loudly saying that Wilders, Le Pen's allyu, failed miserably, when we only have an exit poll that can change on Sunday, and that the European eurosceptic right is in a bad place because of that...

How can anyone be as stupid as French journalists ? How on Earth, geez !

[SPQR]

So absolutely no exit poll for the UK ? That's disappointing. Anyway, in France the media, after having rooted for FN all the way to the election (directly or indirectly), are now loudly saying that Wilders, Le Pen's allyu, failed miserably, when we only have an exit poll that can change on Sunday, and that the European eurosceptic right is in a bad place because of that...

How can anyone be as stupid as French journalists ? How on Earth, geez !

Same everywhere.
First they push the extremists (here it happened with the Five Star Movement),then they understand what kind of mess they are,and attack (even if based on little,if any,evidence).

[Zanas]

So absolutely no exit poll for the UK ? That's disappointing. Anyway, in France the media, after having rooted for FN all the way to the election (directly or indirectly), are now loudly saying that Wilders, Le Pen's allyu, failed miserably, when we only have an exit poll that can change on Sunday, and that the European eurosceptic right is in a bad place because of that...

How can anyone be as stupid as French journalists ? How on Earth, geez !

Same everywhere.
First they push the extremists (here it happened with the Five Star Movement),then they understand what kind of mess they are,and attack (even if based on little,if any,evidence).

You have way too much faith in them. They don't understand anything other than being able to not drool all the time. They just want to sell a story, and nothing sells a story better than plot twists, even if you have to make them up completely...

Anyway, some of my folks on a French forum have been seeing reports on "reliable" twitter accounts that the ranking for EP in the UK would be Lab-Con-Ukip-Green-LibDem.

Anything at all corroborating this ?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Don't know if there's something scientific out there to analyze these situations, but I think weather could play at least a minor role.

Yeah I'm open to the idea that there might be two, three, or even as many as five,  slackers in Austria that might be so lazy some rain is the sole reason they can't bother to put on some pants and get themselves down to a polling station, and equally many mothers who might take their kids on a picnic in the beautiful weather and forgets to get home before polling closes. But that would have to be a very, very minor non-measurable effect.    

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379413001212

No effect,according to him.

Thank you Italian-boy.
There we go, sunshine does not depress voter turn-out.

Can we now please leave this weather causes low-turnout speculation to sensationalist tabloid journalists that might or might not be French?

[Diouf]

DF to ECR seems very likely. Today Dan Hannan, Tory MEP, said the following to the Danish newspaper Berlingske: "Morten Messerschmidt, the DF front runner, is a hard-working and impressive politician. A wide range of ECR-politicians see ham as a trustworthy colleague, and in my opinion his views on the EU match ours better than those of any other Danish party." Hannan adds that he would vote yes to DF joining, and that he thinks the chances of it happening are very good as Messerschmidt is a very popular politician in the ECR.

[afleitch]

Was this a 'stop UKIP' vote? The SNP have been trumping that line on Twitter.

I treat the European Election as a European election Tories were my third choice because I don't like the group they sit with. Both SNP and Greens; my alternate choices sit on the same group anyway. My vote would do little to stop UKIP; we don't know where UKIP votes will come from in Scotland so I don't know what's tactically possible.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Further consultations between AfD and ECR about the possible inclusion are on Tuesday. My source was trying to give the impression that the admission was safe, but I was not completely convinced. I still have the feeling that AfD is standing alone in the end. Not sure, if M5S plus some new ones are an option for them.

[Donnie]

Poland

TNS (final poll)

PIS    (conservative-national)                                33%
PO     (center-liberal)                                             31%
SLD   (socialdemocratic)                                        10%
PSL   (peasant)                                                     10%
New Right of Korwin Mikke (Polish Ron Paul)          5%

Others below the threshold of 5%

Projected turnout 25% (2009-24,5%)

[Tender Branson]

Today is the last day to apply for absentee/postal ballots in person.

I will post the total number of requested ballots (which could be an indicator of turnout) later.

A total of 444.037 absentee/postal ballots have been requested, the BMI announced.

That is up from the 309.200 in the 2009 elections (+44%).

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/europawahl/2014/Wahlkarten.aspx

...

This means that 6.9% of the 6.410.390 eligible voters have requested one (incl. me)

This is up from 4.9% in 2009.

...

It further means that if the race is close on Sunday, the absentees (which are counted on Monday starting at 9am), could decide the election.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

zomg Golden Dawn have totally sold out!!!

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/23/golden-dawn-greece-european-election

[Хahar 🤔]

The idea that good weather would depress turnout seems particularly bizarre.

[EPG]

Yes. I had always thought that rain was worse for turnout - though maybe that only affects summer elections in damp western Europe...

[Keystone Phil]

I'm so torn on who I should root for in these elections.

[swl]

I will be voting for Europe Citoyenne (Corinne Lepage's party) tomorrow. No chance for them to get a MEP, but whatever. I hesitated with EELV, since I kind of like José Bové.

Glad to see that the most pro-EU party may arrive first in the Netherlands. I hope this exit poll is reliable. Still hoping for the PES to have the biggest group in the Parliement, but that seems unlikely now. :/

It's a bit late but since I worked for this website, I encourage you to check it out: http://www.euvox2014.eu/


(For the French here, how do you say 'voter par procuration' in English)?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

It's a bit late but since I worked for this website, I encourage you to check it out: http://www.euvox2014.eu/

I checked it out a few days ago. Interesting site. A few minor things that could have been fixed, but over-all one of the best "Which party do you align with" websites I've tried. Very good to hear a Atlas member was part  of working on it.

[Tender Branson]

SORA's Christoph Hofinger was interviewed yesterday on the ORF and he thinks that 50% turnout is likely tomorrow, based on absentee requests and the data they get from their weekend election-day survey.

http://news.orf.at/wahl14//video/7964018.html

50% would be the highest turnout here in any EP election since 1996, when the first EP election was held.

[Tayya]

One of the last credible polls (I imagine the tabloids will have theirs out tomorrow) for the Swedish EP election arrived today, and it is an especially noteworthy one:

Social Democrats - 25.1% (-1.8%) (6)
Green Party - 15.5% (+0.6%) (3)
Left Party - 7.1% (-3.1%) (2)

Centre Party - 5.0% (+1.8%) (1)
Liberal Party - 11.1% (+2.7%) (2)
Moderates - 15.0% (-1.3%) (3)
Christian Democrats - 6.1% (-0.3%) (1)

Sweden Democrats - 6.3% (-0.3%) (1)
Feminist Initiative - 5.4% (+2.9%) (1)
Pirate Party - 2.8% (-1.1%) (-)
Others incl. June List - 0.6% (-0.1%) (-)

This is the first time since 2002, after their disastrous national election, that he Moderates are not one of the two biggest parties. While they will almost certainly keep their status as second come tomorrow, the fact that this poll exists is a bit embarrassing for them and won't exactly help their turnout (it's going up in general, though, according to early numbers, which will help them).

[Diouf]

Last Danish poll by Epinion



Such a result would more or less satisfy everyone, perhaps except the Liberal Alliance, but they had probably not really expected to get a seat. It will be a big win for DF, the Social Democrats and the Liberals both hold on to their 2009 results in a Eurosceptic time, the People's Movement against the EU increases their result a bit and holds on to their seat, the Conservatives and SF retain a seat each despite difficult times for the parties, and the Social Liberals re-enters the EP after a five-year break.